2017 CCS Play-off Picture (Post Pre-season) for Open divisions

[PAL Booster]

With almost all teams (except the PAL) turning to league play the CCS play-offs actually has some definition. The biggest headline is that is highly likely that the three top rated WCAL teams (St. Francis, Valley Christian, and Serra) will end up in the same division II bracket (With Mitty). I will start to fill in the points in future weeks and after next week include the non-open divisions as well.

In the CCS there are five A leagues with 37 teams that get 24 play-off spots. The top four teams in each league get automatic berths and then the four teams with the highest CCS points get the final four spots. The winner of the Mission Trail League does have an option to opt into the open play-offs and if they do they will replace the team with the lowest CCS point total which will move into a non-open playoff division.

Based on my opinion I have 17 teams listed as likely, another 13 teams on the bubble for the final seven spots and 6 teams listed as unlikely and the final team Lincoln of San Jose opts out of the play-offs to play in its traditional Big Bone game on Thanksgiving.

School CBED Division

Bellarmine 3300 L 1
Milpitas 3183 L 1
San Benito 2916 L 1
Salinas 2620 L 1
Alvarez 2547 B
Menlo-Atherton 2406 L 1
Homestead 2403 B
Santa Teresa 2206 B
Piedmont Hills 2167 B
Los Altos 2091 UL
North Salinas 2068 UL
Los Gatos 1998 L 1/2
Palo Alto 1988 B
Wilcox 1954 L 1/2
Oak Grove 1901 B
St. Francis 1780 L 2
Mitty 1748 L 2
Leigh 1718 B
Serra 1696 L 2
Pioneer 1634 B
Valley Christian 1598 L 2
Aragon 1593 L 2/3
Westmont 1565 B
St. Ignatius 1482 UL
Aptos 1459 L 2/3
Burlingame 1382 L 3
Riordan 1350 UL
Saratoga 1344 UL
Sacred Heart Cath. 1310 B
Live Oak 1160 B
Seaside 1119 B
Terra Nova 976 L 3
Half Moon Bay 975 L 3
Monte Vista Chr 802 B
Palma 706 L 3
Sacred Heart Prep 622 UL
Lincoln NA NA

Deanza – has gone a collective 7-18 in pre-season. As a league they went 3-13 against other A teams, 2-4 against B league teams and 2-1 against C league teams.

Milpitas is a heavy favorite to win this league but have been tripped up in the past by Los Gatos. Los Gatos and Wilcox should take two of the remaining three automatic berths fairly easily. The winner of this weeks Homestead vs Palo Alto game should have the leg up on the fourth spot with Los Altos and Saratoga unlikely to be able to put together enough leg wins to get to fourth place. Unlikely that an at-large team will come from this group as Palo Alto and Saratoga start league at 0-4, Homestead at 1-3 and Los Altos at 1-2.

Monterey Gabilan – went a collective 13-11 in pre-season. 3-7 against other A teams, 9-4 against B league teams and 1-0 against C leagues.

This should be a competitive league as no really strong team has emerged in the pre-season. The traditional top players Aptos 1-2 (lost to Aragon and Placer), Palma 1-2 (lost to St. Francis and Menlo-Atherton by a combined 70-13) , Salinas 1-2 (lost to Terra Nova and Milpitas 27-0) and San Benito 2-1 (lost to Wilcox 35-0) challenged themselves with relatively difficult non-conference games and all showed warts. The best non-league win was San Benito;s 2-120 win over Los Gatos. These four teams should get the automatic berts in some order.

Seaside 3-0, Alvarez 2-1,Monte Vista Christian 2-1, and North Salinas 1-2 played weaker schedules but had better records. These teams might be able to upset one of the top tier teams in a given week and sneak into third or fourth place in the league, but it is doubtful they have enough depth to sustain themselves through their league schedule Whoever finishes 5th has a good opportunity to be an at-large team.

Mount Hamilton – the league rapped its pre-season at a collective 12-12 against a pretty weak schedule. They went 3-4 against other A teams (with 2 of the wins over Saratoga and the other over North Salinas), 7-6 against B league teams and 2-2 against C league teams.

This league will be extremely competitive internally with no team likely to make much noise in the play-offs. This league is almost impossible to handicap. Perennial power Oak Grove was totally overmatched against St. Francis, La Habre and Salinas losing the three games by a collective 126-6, but it is not clear that anyone else in the league would have faired much better. Leigh, Piedmont Hills and Westmont finished their preseasons 3-0 but their opponent records were a combined 7-23 and they were mainly against B and C league teams. If any of these teams win 2 ot 3 league games and finish 5th or 6th they will have a good chance at an-large bid. Live Oak, Pioneer, and Santa Teresa each went 1-2 with each of them losing at least one game to a B or C league team. These teams, like Oak Grove will likely need to get one of the four automatic bids to make the play-offs. I would anticipate a lot of closely contested league games this year in the Mount Hamilton as the teams seem relatively evenly matched.


PAL Bay – Went a collective 17-6 in the off season with one more week before league games. They went 9-4 against other A leagues, 4-2 against B league opponents and 4-0 against C league teams. In this six team league

It looks like Sacred Heart Prep (1-3) will struggle in this league although they played a challenging preseason schedule. Three teams remain unbeaten (Aragon, Burlingame, and Half Moon Bay while Terra Nova’s only loss was a forfeit). Menlo-Atherton is 2-2 and the league should be more competitive than first thought, but expect to see Menlo-Atherton come out on top in the end as their two losses were competitive games against Bellarmine and Mitty.

WCAL – Went 14-10 in pre-season Going 8-9 against other A league teams, many of which were some of the top-rated programs in other sections. They went 2-1 against B classified teams and 4-0 against teams that will likely be rated as C teams.

It looks like the top three teams will be Saint Francis, Serra and Valley Christian with Bellarmine and Mitty fighting of the last at-large spot. There seems to be a chasm between these teams and the league’s three SF teams. If Bellarmine or Mitty finishes 5th they will make the play-offs as an at-large team. SHC finished the pre-season 3-0 and if they can beat the other two SF teams they will likely get an at-large spot as well. SI and Riordan would likely have to win three league games to get into the play-offs which would require beating both of their SF rivals and pulling off an upset of one of the other teams.

 

[Doctor of Hoopology]

Your status says "ROOKIE." When it comes to the CCS playoffs and their point system you should have Hall of Fame Status, lol. Great work as always. This may be your earliest prediction in history for the playoffs, at least by my memory. Are you vying for Joe Lunardi's job as Chief Bracketologist of HS playoffs!!

 

[TigerFan94044]

@PAL Booster Have you calculated any points yet? I have 20 points being the cut off for at large teams with a 4th places De Anza team getting a AQ with less than that

 

[PAL Booster]

I have but it is still pretty speculative given so many games to play out and computer rankings still being pretty unreliable until you get a couple of weeks further into the season. I think the final at-large spot for the open division could drop as low as 18.5 points .

Most of this really hinges on wether teams with good pres-season records like Seaside, Westmont, Piedmont Hills, and Leigh get AQ spots or are fighting for at-large berths. It is highly likely that the 4th place Deanza team will have the lowest point total of the 24 teams and will be bumped down if the Mission Trail champion opts up.

One thing that potentially makes this season more unpredictable than past years is that more and more teams are playing with smaller rosters and less depth and injuries can have an even more dramatic impact that in past years as many teams are highly reliant on two way starters to keep their current relative competitive position.

 

[colhenrylives]

Your status says "ROOKIE." When it comes to the CCS playoffs and their point system you should have Hall of Fame Status, lol. Great work as always. This may be your earliest prediction in history for the playoffs, at least by my memory. Are you vying for Joe Lunardi's job as Chief Bracketologist of HS playoffs!!

Correct on all points. Anyone who can decipher the CCS' convoluted point system deserves a big-time bonus, perhaps a lifetime monthly brunch date at Main Street Grill.

I have but it is still pretty speculative given so many games to play out and computer rankings still being pretty unreliable until you get a couple of weeks further into the season. I think the final at-large spot for the open division could drop as low as 18.5 points .

Most of this really hinges on wether teams with good pres-season records like Seaside, Westmont, Piedmont Hills, and Leigh get AQ spots or are fighting for at-large berths. It is highly likely that the 4th place Deanza team will have the lowest point total of the 24 teams and will be bumped down if the Mission Trail champion opts up.

One thing that potentially makes this season more unpredictable than past years is that more and more teams are playing with smaller rosters and less depth and injuries can have an even more dramatic impact that in past years as many teams are highly reliant on two way starters to keep their current relative competitive position.

That last paragraph is very telling. And worrisome. The football future does not appear to be altogether splendid. Last Friday's Burlingame vs South San Francisco contest featured two PAL teams with 25 and 21 players suited up respectively. Not good.

 

[PAL Booster]

Col Henry - thank you for your kind comments and your always constructive posts and observations - a free lunch or brunch is always welcome but we all know that it does not really exist

I share your concerns about the future of HS football given the decreasing roster sizes. I also think it creates a negative cycle in that teams with small rosters have their kids playing many more snaps and I believe the incidences of injuries increases when players are highly fatigued. With the increase in spread offenses you are seeing games with up to 150 snaps from the LOS plus special team plays which is a lot for even an exceptionally conditioned athlete to execute week in and week out in a big contact sport.

When you watch these smaller roster teams played they are often populated with good players and athletes but their ability to compete if they are going both ways against teams that have rosters that allow mainly for few if any kids playing both ways is greatly diminished as they just wear down and wear out.

Maybe teams with smaller rosters need to consider shorter games (frosh-soph is played with 10 minute periods) or maybe you will see more teams playing 6 or 8 man football like you see in rural areas with small teams. Possibly you would classify teams by roster sizes so teams with small rosters are playing each other - so that way the game slows down for both sides as fatigue sets in.

 

[RLS13]

I have but it is still pretty speculative given so many games to play out and computer rankings still being pretty unreliable until you get a couple of weeks further into the season. I think the final at-large spot for the open division could drop as low as 18.5 points .

Most of this really hinges on wether teams with good pres-season records like Seaside, Westmont, Piedmont Hills, and Leigh get AQ spots or are fighting for at-large berths. It is highly likely that the 4th place Deanza team will have the lowest point total of the 24 teams and will be bumped down if the Mission Trail champion opts up.

One thing that potentially makes this season more unpredictable than past years is that more and more teams are playing with smaller rosters and less depth and injuries can have an even more dramatic impact that in past years as many teams are highly reliant on two way starters to keep their current relative competitive position.

99.9% sure Mission Trail will not opt up. The three favorites did not fair to well in pre-season. Scott's Valley was throttled by Terra Nova , Carmel lost big to Christopher & Gilroy (DIV favorites) and Soledad could not keep up with Seaside. MTAL is down this year and I do not see their champion being able to compete in the open this year.

 

[Cal 14]

99.9% sure Mission Trail will not opt up. The three favorites did not fair to well in pre-season. Scott's Valley was throttled by Terra Nova , Carmel lost big to Christopher & Gilroy (DIV favorites) and Soledad could not keep up with Seaside. MTAL is down this year and I do not see their champion being able to compete in the open this year.

Mission Trail is down this year? When was the last time it was "up"?

 

[Prepwisdom]

I think or hope RLS13 meant that the MTAL was down this year relative to prior years? Anyway- I would say that overall the southern portion of the CCS is down. Salinas has been a disappointment ( have played a tough preseason) but never the less was hyped up in the preseason to be ready to take on the big boys, Palma certainly isn't a vintage team and Hollister is young and playing with mixed results. Seaside is still untested and yet to show if they "belong". In the next level- Gilroy and Christopher are decent and could end up somewhere in the open playoffs based on their records. Carmel is down -young at the skill positions and Soledad and Scotts Valley will most likely end up in the non open divisions. Overall- at this stage of the season- I don't see any southern CCS teams playing for an open title.

 

[RLS13]

Mission Trail is down this year? When was the last time it was "up"?

Thank you Cal 14 for pointing out the obvious. I was referring to comparisons to other B leagues, not the WCAL. In most years the MTAL is the 1st or 2nd ranked B league top to bottom. This year not so much. The MBL-Pacific, PAL -Ocean and even the BVAL-Santa Teresa may all be better than the MTAL

Monterey County football is down in all divisions this year. It is not out of the questions in the 4 leagues that Monterey County schools are in that they will be won from out of county schools.

MBL Gabilan- Hollister
MBL Pacific- Gilroy
MTAL Mission Trail- Scott's Valley
MTAL Coastal- St. Francis CC (Watsonville)

That being said, most of the league races down here will be competitive and great for the local fans, just do not expect much once CCS playoffs and state bowl games start.

 

[Cal 14]

Thank you Cal 14 for pointing out the obvious. I was referring to comparisons to other B leagues, not the WCAL. In most years the MTAL is the 1st or 2nd ranked B league top to bottom. This year not so much. The MBL-Pacific, PAL -Ocean and even the BVAL-Santa Teresa may all be better than the MTAL

Monterey County football is down in all divisions this year. It is not out of the questions in the 4 leagues that Monterey County schools are in that they will be won from out of county schools.

MBL Gabilan- Hollister
MBL Pacific- Gilroy
MTAL Mission Trail- Scott's Valley
MTAL Coastal- St. Francis CC (Watsonville)

That being said, most of the league races down here will be competitive and great for the local fans, just do not expect much once CCS playoffs and state bowl games start.

The MTAL hasn't truly been "up" for forever. There have been two good teams (Carmel and PG) and the rest that just aren't strong programs. This year you have Soledad and Scotts Valley, with the rest not being very good. It's not that different.

 

[PALbooster]

CCS Play-off Picture after week 4


As the final teams begin league play this week here is an early look at the CCS Play-off picture. Last week’s Palo Alto win over Homestead gives them a leg up on capturing the last play-off spot for the Deanza league and SHC win over SI puts them in a good position to capture an at-large berth. Lots of assumptions about league championships points and final records of out of section opponents that figure into the numbers that will change as the results come in during the season.


Division I open


8. Palo Alto 3-7 17 vs 1. Milpitas 10-0 31

5. San Benito 7-3 25 vs Piedmont Hills 8-2 26

6. Los Gatos 6-4 25 vs 3. Menlo-Atherton 8-2 28

7. Bellarmine 5-5 21 5 vs 2. Salinas 9-1 29.5


Division II Open


8. Serra 6-4 24.5 vs 1. Leigh 10-0 31.5

5. Wilcox 7-3 26 vs 4. Aragon 8-2 26.5

6. Oak Grove 6-4 25 or Mitty 6-4 25 vs 3. St. Francis 8-2 27

7. Oak Grove 6-4 25 or Mitty 6-4 25 vs 2. Valley Christian 9-1 30


Division III Open


8. Burlingame 6-4 20 or SHC 5-5 20 vs 1. Half Moon Bay 9-1 26

5. Palma 5-5 21.5 vs 4. Terra Nova 6-4 23 or Westmont 7-3 23

6. Seaside 6-4 21.5 vs 3. Terra Nova 6-4 23 or Westmont 7-3 23

7. Burlingame 6-4 20 or SHC 5-5 20 vs 2. Aptos 7-3 25.5


Leagues


Deanza


This weeks game between Los Gatos and Wilcox will likely determine second place in the league and give the winner a chance to win the league with an upset of Milpitas. Palo Alto’s win over Homestead last week puts them in the driver’s seat for the final automatic qualifying position. They must secure wins over Los Altos and Saratoga to hold this position. Milpitas is a heavy favorite to win this league.


Monterey Gabilan


The top three teams seem to be pretty set with Salinas being a slight favorite over San Benito and Aptos. Palma continues to be a question mark after they got drubbed by Aptos after getting out to a 13-0 lead. I currently have them in the last automatic qualifying spot put they will need to fend off Seaside and Monte Vista Christian. They face a must win game against Alvarez this week. Seaside and MVC will likely get an at-large spot if they finish in 5th place and get three league wins. Both seem capable of potentially getting up to fourth place.


Mount Hamilton


By far the hardest league to handicap. Three of last weeks four games were decided by 2 points. Pioneer looks to be lagging behind the rest of the league and Lincoln chooses not to participate in the CCS play-offs. I have Leigh winning the league and Oak Grove, Westmont, and Piedmont Hills getting the automatic berths. Santa Teresa and Live Oak are certainly capable of getting one of the top four spots. Westmont, Piedmont Hills, and Leigh would be in a good position for an at-large berth if they slipped to fifth in the league standings. Based on their poor pre-season records Live Oak, Santa Teresa and Oak Grove need to get an automatic berth to make the play-offs.


PAL- Bay


Shaping up to be more competitive than predicted before the season as demonstrated by Menlo-Atherton’s hard fought 14-10 win over Burlingame to start league play. I still think MA has the most depth to get through the league schedule as the league champion but Aragon, Terra Nova and Half Moon Bay will all be competitive with MA and each other. I have Burlingame coming in fifth but still getting an at-large berth. There will be a lot of close games in the Bay this year. SHP seems down this year but is still capable of putting together an upset in a given week.


WCAL


Got some definition last week with league opening wins by Valley Christian over St. Francis, Mitty over Bellarmine and SHC over SI. VC is the favorite to win the league with automatic berths going to St. Francis, Serra and Mitty. Bellarime and SHC are in a good position for at-large berths.


Non-Open Play-offs


Current projection is a three way tie for the final at-large spot between Carmel, Watsonville and Independence


Division IV


8. Watsonville 7-3 19 or Independence 6-4 19 vs 1. Leland 10-0 28

5. Fremont 7-3 21 or San Mateo 8-2 21 vs 4. Carlmont 10-0 24 or Santa Clara 8-2 24

6. Fremont 7-3 21 or San Mateo 8-2 21 vs 3. Carlmont 10-0 24 or Santa Clara 8-2 24

7. Silver Creek 7-3 20.5 vs 2. Christopher 10-0 27

or if Carmel is in


8. Overfelt 8-2 20.5 or Silver Creek 7-3 20.5 vs 1. Leland 10-0 28

5. Fremont 7-3 21 or San Mateo 8-2 21 vs 4. Carlmont 10-0 24 or Santa Clara 8-2 24

6. Fremont 7-3 21 or San Mateo 8-2 21 vs 3. Carlmont 10-0 24 or Santa Clara 8-2 24

7. Overfelt 8-2 20.5 or Silver Creek 7-3 20.5 vs 2. Christopher 10-0 27


Division V


8. Soledad 7-3 20 vs 1. Scotts Valley 9-1 26.5

5. Menlo 7-3 22.5 vs 4. Branham 8-2 24

6. St. Francis (W) 9-1 21.5 vs 3. Gilroy 9-1 24.5

7. Overfelt 8-2 20.5 vs 2. Hillsdale 9-1 25.5


If Carmel gets in


8. Carmel 6-4 19 vs 1. Scotts Valley 9-1 26.5

5. Menlo 7-3 22.5 vs 4. Branham 8-2 24

6. St. Francis (W) 9-1 21.5 vs 3. Gilroy 9-1 24.5

7. Soledad 7-3 20 vs 2. Hillsdale 9-1 25.5


Leagues


El Camino


This week’s game between Cupertino and Fremont will go a long way to determining the second Automatic spot for this league. Santa Clara is the favorite to win the league. No serious threat for an at-large berth


Mission Trail Coastal


This weeks game between Greenfield and St. Francis of Watsonville will likely determine the league champion and who gets the leagues only automatic berth. No serious contenders for at-large berths here.


Mission Trail Mission


Soledad’s win over Carmel puts them in a great position for one of the top two spots and a play-off berth. If Carmel doesn’t upset Scotts Valley this week they are a bubble team for an at-large berth. Scotts Valley is favored to win this league.


Monterey – Pacific


Christopher and Gilroy are heavy favorites to get the leagues two automatic berths with Christopher a slight favorite to win the league championship. Watsonville if they can finish third would be on the bubble for an at-large berth.


PAL – Ocean


League play starts this week. Hillsdale and Menlo are the favorites for the automatic berths with Hillsdale favored to win the league.


Pal – Lake


Carlmont and San Mateo should battle for the league championship and the only automatic berth. The loser should get an at-large berth from this C league


Santa Teresa


Leland and Branham are favored for the top two spots with Leland favored to win the league. Silver Creek even by finishing fourth in the league should get an at-large spot. Independence will be on the bubble if they finish in third place.


West Valley


This C league berth should be determined between Overfelt and Sobrato when they play on 10-06.

 

[Prepwisdom]

You have Salinas projected at 9-1. They have 2 losses already.

 

[Pigskins&Leather Helmets]

You have Salinas projected at 9-1. They have 2 losses already.

Is Milpitas playing a 9 game season or did they get a forfeit win from Brookside Christian? Great job Booster, I find it funny at my age I can barely determine what to wear on a daily basis, and yet you are predicting (accurately in my opinion) high school football playoff match-ups months from now.

 

[GOTF]

Simply put .... I like your style!

 

[Streak One]

Milpitas will have a nine game schedule with a forfeit win over Brookside Christian to make it 10

 

[SPortela24]

Pal – Lake


Carlmont and San Mateo should battle for the league championship and the only automatic berth. The loser should get an at-large berth from this C league

They forgot about Jefferson lol.

 

[FBAddict]

Milpitas will have a nine game schedule with a forfeit win over Brookside Christian to make it 10

They have a forfeit win over BC but the CCS rules will use the special clause to calculate CCS seeding points according to a 9 game season. This calculation should have put Milpitas' number at 30.3. I think some of the numbers have changed for Milpitas this week and Pal Booster should have different numbers this week.

 

[PALbooster]

CCS Play-off Picture after week 5


While most of the A leagues continue to play out close to expectations, the Mount Hamilton League is a big exception and the balance in that league is likely to continue to change the play-off picture over the next few weeks.


This weeks projections show a tie for the final at-large spot between Burlingame and Piedmont Hills.


With Piedmont Hills in the Final spot Palo Alto drops to Division II as Santa Teresa is now projected into the field as an AQ in the Mt. Hamilton league.


Division I open


8. Piedmont Hills 5-5 20 vs 1. Milpitas 10-0 31.5*

5. Los Gatos 6-4 25 vs 4. San Benito 7-3 25

6. Bellarmine 5-5 21.5 vs 3. Menlo-Atherton 8-2 28

7. Santa Teresa 5-5 20.5 vs 2. Salinas 8-2 29.5


*Assumes credit for forfeit win over Brookside Christian, if not they play a 9 game schedule and at 9-0 would have 31.33 points


With Burlingame in the Field


8. Palo Alto 3-7 17 vs 1. Milpitas 10-0 31.5*

5. Los Gatos 6-4 25 vs 4. San Benito 7-3 25

6. Bellarmine 5-5 21.5 vs 3. Menlo-Atherton 8-2 28

7. Santa Teresa 5-5 20.5 vs 2. Salinas 8-2 29.5



Division II Open

With Piedmont Hills:

8. Palo Alto 3-7 17 vs 1. Valley Christian 9-1 30

5. Wilcox 7-3 26 vs 4. Aragon 8-2 26.5

6. Mitty 6-4 25 vs 3. St. Francis 8-2 27

7. Serra 6-4 24.5 vs 2. Leigh 9-1 27.75


With Burlingame

8. Serra 6-4 24.5 vs 1. Valley Christian 9-1 30

5. Aragon 8-2 26.5 vs 4. St. Francis 8-2 27

6. Wilcox 7-3 26 vs 3. Westmont 9-1 27.75

7. Mitty 6-4 25 vs 2. Leigh 9-1 27.75



Division III Open

With Piedmont Hills

8. SHC 5-5 20.5 vs 1. Westmont 9-1 27.75

5. Live Oak 6-4 22.5 vs 4. Terra Nova 6-4 23

6 Palma 5-5 21.5 vs 3. Aptos 7-3 25.5

7. Seaside 6-4 21.5 vs 2. Half Moon Bay 9-1 26


With Burlingame

8. Burlingame 6-4 20 vs 1. Half Moon Bay 9-1 26

5. Palma 5-5 21.5 vs 4. Live Oak 6-4 22.5

6. Seaside 6-4 21.5 vs 3. Terra Nova 6-4 23

7. SHC 5-5 20.5 vs 2. Aptos 7-3 25.5


Leagues

Deanza

This weeks game between Milpitas and Wilcox will likely determine the champion in the league. No other real changes as Milpitas, Wilcox, Los Gatos and Palo Alto are expected to get the four automatic spots from the league and the remaining teams will lack enough points for an at-large spot.


Monterey Gabilan


Again this league held to form last week. Salinas, Aptos and San Benito should finish as the top three with Salinas a slight favorite to win the league. Palma is favored for fourth but could be challenged by Seasise of Monte Vista Christian. If Seaside or MVC finish fifth they will have a great chance at an at-large spot.


Mount Hamilton


Continues to Be by far the hardest league to handicap. At this point Westmont (by virtue of victories by 1 and 2 points) is the leagues only undefeated team at 2-0. Everyone else is 1-1 except Piedmont Hills who is 0-2 (with losses by 1 and 2 points). Last week the leagues second lowest ranked tea Pioneer blew out the leagues top rated team Leigh by 30 points. Everyone has a reasonable shot at one of the top four league spots. Based on their non-conference schedules Westmont, Leigh and Piedmont Hills will have a great chance at an at-large berth if they finish 5th. The leagues other teams will struggle to get an at-large berth if they don’t get an automatic spot based on their poor preconference records.


Going solely by current Calpreps rankings (still unreliable at this point of the year and most of the teams are ranked extremely close to each other) you end up with a final standings of:


Leigh 6-1

Westmont 6-1

Live Oak 5-2

Santa Teresa 4-3

Oak Grove 3-4

Piedmont Hills 2-5

Lincoln 1-6

Pioneer 1-6



PAL- Bay


Only one game last week as Aragon raced to a 40-0 halftime lead against Sacred Heart Prep and played with a running clock for the second half. Top four teams are fairly balanced between Aragon, Terra Nova, Menlo-Atherton and Half Moon Bay. Burlingame seems to be just a notch below but fully capable of beating one or more of the above teams. SHP really seems to be in a down year this season and is unlikely to get a play-off berth.


WCAL


No real changes here either. SHC will have their eyes on past opponent Fernley as a Fernely win this week will give SHC a great chance of adding another 0.5 to 1 point as Fernley will be in position to win their league.


Non-Open Play-offs


Current projection is a four way tie for the final two at-large spots between Carmel, Fremont, San Mateo and Independence.


Last week saw some changes as Willow Glen beat Silver Creek to put themselves in a great positon for an at-large berth. Cupertino beat Fremont to put themselves in a great positon to capture an automatic qualifying spot. Likewise, King City beat Soledad which makes them a favorite to finish second behind Scotts Valley. Finally, Jefferson upset San Mateo but San Mateo can still get enough points to get on the bubble for an at-large berth.



Division IV


Without Carmel

8. San Mateo 7-3 19, Fremont 6-4 19, or Independence 6-4 19 vs 1. Leland 10-0 28

5. Willow Glen 7-3 20 or Cupertino 7-3 20 vs 4. Carlmont 10-0 24 or Santa Clara 8-2 24

6. Willow Glen 7-3 20 or Cupertino 7-3 20 vs 3. Carlmont 10-0 24 or Santa Clara 8-2 24

7. San Mateo 7-3 19, Fremont 6-4 19, or Independence 6-4 19 vs 2. Christopher 10-0 27


or if Carmel is in

8. San Mateo 7-3 19, Fremont 6-4 19, or Independence 6-4 19 vs 1. Leland 10-0 28

5. Overfelt 8-2 20.5 vs 4. Carlmont 10-0 24 or Santa Clara 8-2 24

6. Willow Glen 7-3 20 or Cupertino 7-3 20 vs 3. Carlmont 10-0 24 or Santa Clara 8-2 24

7. Willow Glen 7-3 20 or Cupertino 7-3 20 vs 2. Christopher 10-0 27


Division V

Without Carmel

8. King City 7-3 20 vs 1. Scotts Valley 9-1 26.5

5. Menlo 7-3 22.5 vs 4. Branham 8-2 24

6. St. Francis (W) 9-1 21.5 vs 3. Gilroy 9-1 24.5

7. Overfelt 8-2 20.5 vs 2. Hillsdale 9-1 25.5


If Carmel gets in


8. Carmel 6-4 19 vs 1. Scotts Valley 9-1 26.5

5. Menlo 7-3 22.5 vs 4. Branham 8-2 24

6. St. Francis (W) 9-1 21.5 vs 3. Gilroy 9-1 24.5

7. King City 7-3 20 vs 2. Hillsdale 9-1 25.5


Leagues


El Camino


Cupertino and Santa Clara can solidify their spots as the leagues top two teams this week with wins over Mountain View and Fremont respectively.


Mission Trail Coastal


St. Francis is the favorite to win this C league with Soquel and Santa Cruz still undefeated in league play.


Mission Trail Mission


King City’s win over Soledad puts them in a good position to capture second place. Scotts Valley is the favorite to win the league and they can solidify that position with win over King City this week. San Lorenzo Valley is also undefeated in league and need to beat Carmel this week to stay in play-off contention.


Monterey – Pacific


Alisal knocked off Watsonville last week which will make it hard for Watsonville to get an at-large berth. Christopher and Gilroy are heavy favorites to take this leagues two automatic spots.


PAL – Ocean


Hillsdale and Menlo solidified their positons as favorites as each coasted to a large shut out win in their league opener.


Pal – Lake


Jefferson upset San Mateo to insert themselves into the league championship picture. Carlmont remains the favorite to win this league. Carlmont has their showdown with San Mateo this week.


Santa Teresa


Leland and Branham are the leagues only undefeated teams and are favored for the top two spots with Leland favored to win the league. Willow Glen beat Silver Creek to elevate them to be in good shape for an at-large berth. Independence is also well positioned for an at-large spot.


West Valley


The leagues four 2-0 teams all square off this week against each other as Evergreen Valley faces Propect and Sobrato takes on Overfelt. The winner of the Sobrato vs Overfelt game will be a heavy favorite to win the league.

 

[TigerFan94044]

Wouldn't Oak Grove be in the hunt for an At large bid with 20 points ( 4 wins 8, 10 A league opponents 10, 2 league champs (Mount Hamilton and La Habra) 2, 8+10+2=20)

 

[PALbooster]

I have Oak Grove finishing 3-7 - if they get to 4-6 (which would mean 4-3 in league) they would would have a strong chance of getting an automatic qualifying berth. or being on the bubble for an at-large bid.

 

[joebl]

CCS Play-off Picture after week 5


While most of the A leagues continue to play out close to expectations, the Mount Hamilton League is a big exception and the balance in that league is likely to continue to change the play-off picture over the next few weeks.


This weeks projections show a tie for the final at-large spot between Burlingame and Piedmont Hills.


With Piedmont Hills in the Final spot Palo Alto drops to Division II as Santa Teresa is now projected into the field as an AQ in the Mt. Hamilton league.


Division I open


8. Piedmont Hills 5-5 20 vs 1. Milpitas 10-0 31.5*

5. Los Gatos 6-4 25 vs 4. San Benito 7-3 25

6. Bellarmine 5-5 21.5 vs 3. Menlo-Atherton 8-2 28

7. Santa Teresa 5-5 20.5 vs 2. Salinas 8-2 29.5


*Assumes credit for forfeit win over Brookside Christian, if not they play a 9 game schedule and at 9-0 would have 31.33 points


With Burlingame in the Field


8. Palo Alto 3-7 17 vs 1. Milpitas 10-0 31.5*

5. Los Gatos 6-4 25 vs 4. San Benito 7-3 25

6. Bellarmine 5-5 21.5 vs 3. Menlo-Atherton 8-2 28

7. Santa Teresa 5-5 20.5 vs 2. Salinas 8-2 29.5



Division II Open

With Piedmont Hills:

8. Palo Alto 3-7 17 vs 1. Valley Christian 9-1 30

5. Wilcox 7-3 26 vs 4. Aragon 8-2 26.5

6. Mitty 6-4 25 vs 3. St. Francis 8-2 27

7. Serra 6-4 24.5 vs 2. Leigh 9-1 27.75


With Burlingame

8. Serra 6-4 24.5 vs 1. Valley Christian 9-1 30

5. Aragon 8-2 26.5 vs 4. St. Francis 8-2 27

6. Wilcox 7-3 26 vs 3. Westmont 9-1 27.75

7. Mitty 6-4 25 vs 2. Leigh 9-1 27.75



Division III Open

With Piedmont Hills

8. SHC 5-5 20.5 vs 1. Westmont 9-1 27.75

5. Live Oak 6-4 22.5 vs 4. Terra Nova 6-4 23

6 Palma 5-5 21.5 vs 3. Aptos 7-3 25.5

7. Seaside 6-4 21.5 vs 2. Half Moon Bay 9-1 26


With Burlingame

8. Burlingame 6-4 20 vs 1. Half Moon Bay 9-1 26

5. Palma 5-5 21.5 vs 4. Live Oak 6-4 22.5

6. Seaside 6-4 21.5 vs 3. Terra Nova 6-4 23

7. SHC 5-5 20.5 vs 2. Aptos 7-3 25.5


Leagues

Deanza

This weeks game between Milpitas and Wilcox will likely determine the champion in the league. No other real changes as Milpitas, Wilcox, Los Gatos and Palo Alto are expected to get the four automatic spots from the league and the remaining teams will lack enough points for an at-large spot.


Monterey Gabilan


Again this league held to form last week. Salinas, Aptos and San Benito should finish as the top three with Salinas a slight favorite to win the league. Palma is favored for fourth but could be challenged by Seasise of Monte Vista Christian. If Seaside or MVC finish fifth they will have a great chance at an at-large spot.


Mount Hamilton


Continues to Be by far the hardest league to handicap. At this point Westmont (by virtue of victories by 1 and 2 points) is the leagues only undefeated team at 2-0. Everyone else is 1-1 except Piedmont Hills who is 0-2 (with losses by 1 and 2 points). Last week the leagues second lowest ranked tea Pioneer blew out the leagues top rated team Leigh by 30 points. Everyone has a reasonable shot at one of the top four league spots. Based on their non-conference schedules Westmont, Leigh and Piedmont Hills will have a great chance at an at-large berth if they finish 5th. The leagues other teams will struggle to get an at-large berth if they don’t get an automatic spot based on their poor preconference records.


Going solely by current Calpreps rankings (still unreliable at this point of the year and most of the teams are ranked extremely close to each other) you end up with a final standings of:


Leigh 6-1

Westmont 6-1

Live Oak 5-2

Santa Teresa 4-3

Oak Grove 3-4

Piedmont Hills 2-5

Lincoln 1-6

Pioneer 1-6



PAL- Bay


Only one game last week as Aragon raced to a 40-0 halftime lead against Sacred Heart Prep and played with a running clock for the second half. Top four teams are fairly balanced between Aragon, Terra Nova, Menlo-Atherton and Half Moon Bay. Burlingame seems to be just a notch below but fully capable of beating one or more of the above teams. SHP really seems to be in a down year this season and is unlikely to get a play-off berth.


WCAL


No real changes here either. SHC will have their eyes on past opponent Fernley as a Fernely win this week will give SHC a great chance of adding another 0.5 to 1 point as Fernley will be in position to win their league.


Non-Open Play-offs


Current projection is a four way tie for the final two at-large spots between Carmel, Fremont, San Mateo and Independence.


Last week saw some changes as Willow Glen beat Silver Creek to put themselves in a great positon for an at-large berth. Cupertino beat Fremont to put themselves in a great positon to capture an automatic qualifying spot. Likewise, King City beat Soledad which makes them a favorite to finish second behind Scotts Valley. Finally, Jefferson upset San Mateo but San Mateo can still get enough points to get on the bubble for an at-large berth.



Division IV


Without Carmel

8. San Mateo 7-3 19, Fremont 6-4 19, or Independence 6-4 19 vs 1. Leland 10-0 28

5. Willow Glen 7-3 20 or Cupertino 7-3 20 vs 4. Carlmont 10-0 24 or Santa Clara 8-2 24

6. Willow Glen 7-3 20 or Cupertino 7-3 20 vs 3. Carlmont 10-0 24 or Santa Clara 8-2 24

7. San Mateo 7-3 19, Fremont 6-4 19, or Independence 6-4 19 vs 2. Christopher 10-0 27


or if Carmel is in

8. San Mateo 7-3 19, Fremont 6-4 19, or Independence 6-4 19 vs 1. Leland 10-0 28

5. Overfelt 8-2 20.5 vs 4. Carlmont 10-0 24 or Santa Clara 8-2 24

6. Willow Glen 7-3 20 or Cupertino 7-3 20 vs 3. Carlmont 10-0 24 or Santa Clara 8-2 24

7. Willow Glen 7-3 20 or Cupertino 7-3 20 vs 2. Christopher 10-0 27


Division V

Without Carmel

8. King City 7-3 20 vs 1. Scotts Valley 9-1 26.5

5. Menlo 7-3 22.5 vs 4. Branham 8-2 24

6. St. Francis (W) 9-1 21.5 vs 3. Gilroy 9-1 24.5

7. Overfelt 8-2 20.5 vs 2. Hillsdale 9-1 25.5


If Carmel gets in


8. Carmel 6-4 19 vs 1. Scotts Valley 9-1 26.5

5. Menlo 7-3 22.5 vs 4. Branham 8-2 24

6. St. Francis (W) 9-1 21.5 vs 3. Gilroy 9-1 24.5

7. King City 7-3 20 vs 2. Hillsdale 9-1 25.5


Leagues


El Camino


Cupertino and Santa Clara can solidify their spots as the leagues top two teams this week with wins over Mountain View and Fremont respectively.


Mission Trail Coastal


St. Francis is the favorite to win this C league with Soquel and Santa Cruz still undefeated in league play.


Mission Trail Mission


King City’s win over Soledad puts them in a good position to capture second place. Scotts Valley is the favorite to win the league and they can solidify that position with win over King City this week. San Lorenzo Valley is also undefeated in league and need to beat Carmel this week to stay in play-off contention.


Monterey – Pacific


Alisal knocked off Watsonville last week which will make it hard for Watsonville to get an at-large berth. Christopher and Gilroy are heavy favorites to take this leagues two automatic spots.


PAL – Ocean


Hillsdale and Menlo solidified their positons as favorites as each coasted to a large shut out win in their league opener.


Pal – Lake


Jefferson upset San Mateo to insert themselves into the league championship picture. Carlmont remains the favorite to win this league. Carlmont has their showdown with San Mateo this week.


Santa Teresa


Leland and Branham are the leagues only undefeated teams and are favored for the top two spots with Leland favored to win the league. Willow Glen beat Silver Creek to elevate them to be in good shape for an at-large berth. Independence is also well positioned for an at-large spot.


West Valley


The leagues four 2-0 teams all square off this week against each other as Evergreen Valley faces Propect and Sobrato takes on Overfelt. The winner of the Sobrato vs Overfelt game will be a heavy favorite to win the league.

My annual rant on the stupid, silly point system the CCS uses to seed the teams has Serra projected to be the 8th seed in Open Div 2 even though they sit at #2 overall in CCS by CalPreps. When is the section going to dump that horrible point system for something more reflective of actual strength. And, use strength of schedule as a reward system to encourage some of the teams to have a decent schedule if their division is not too tough (let's call it the Milpitas Rule)

 

[SpeedCity51]

I think the power point system is fine.

 

[colhenrylives]

CCS Play-off Picture after week 5


While most of the A leagues continue to play out close to expectations, the Mount Hamilton League is a big exception and the balance in that league is likely to continue to change the play-off picture over the next few weeks.


This weeks projections show a tie for the final at-large spot between Burlingame and Piedmont Hills.


With Piedmont Hills in the Final spot Palo Alto drops to Division II as Santa Teresa is now projected into the field as an AQ in the Mt. Hamilton league.


Division I open


8. Piedmont Hills 5-5 20 vs 1. Milpitas 10-0 31.5*

5. Los Gatos 6-4 25 vs 4. San Benito 7-3 25

6. Bellarmine 5-5 21.5 vs 3. Menlo-Atherton 8-2 28

7. Santa Teresa 5-5 20.5 vs 2. Salinas 8-2 29.5


*Assumes credit for forfeit win over Brookside Christian, if not they play a 9 game schedule and at 9-0 would have 31.33 points


With Burlingame in the Field


8. Palo Alto 3-7 17 vs 1. Milpitas 10-0 31.5*

5. Los Gatos 6-4 25 vs 4. San Benito 7-3 25

6. Bellarmine 5-5 21.5 vs 3. Menlo-Atherton 8-2 28

7. Santa Teresa 5-5 20.5 vs 2. Salinas 8-2 29.5



Division II Open

With Piedmont Hills:

8. Palo Alto 3-7 17 vs 1. Valley Christian 9-1 30

5. Wilcox 7-3 26 vs 4. Aragon 8-2 26.5

6. Mitty 6-4 25 vs 3. St. Francis 8-2 27

7. Serra 6-4 24.5 vs 2. Leigh 9-1 27.75


With Burlingame

8. Serra 6-4 24.5 vs 1. Valley Christian 9-1 30

5. Aragon 8-2 26.5 vs 4. St. Francis 8-2 27

6. Wilcox 7-3 26 vs 3. Westmont 9-1 27.75

7. Mitty 6-4 25 vs 2. Leigh 9-1 27.75



Division III Open

With Piedmont Hills

8. SHC 5-5 20.5 vs 1. Westmont 9-1 27.75

5. Live Oak 6-4 22.5 vs 4. Terra Nova 6-4 23

6 Palma 5-5 21.5 vs 3. Aptos 7-3 25.5

7. Seaside 6-4 21.5 vs 2. Half Moon Bay 9-1 26


With Burlingame

8. Burlingame 6-4 20 vs 1. Half Moon Bay 9-1 26

5. Palma 5-5 21.5 vs 4. Live Oak 6-4 22.5

6. Seaside 6-4 21.5 vs 3. Terra Nova 6-4 23

7. SHC 5-5 20.5 vs 2. Aptos 7-3 25.5


Leagues

Deanza

This weeks game between Milpitas and Wilcox will likely determine the champion in the league. No other real changes as Milpitas, Wilcox, Los Gatos and Palo Alto are expected to get the four automatic spots from the league and the remaining teams will lack enough points for an at-large spot.


Monterey Gabilan


Again this league held to form last week. Salinas, Aptos and San Benito should finish as the top three with Salinas a slight favorite to win the league. Palma is favored for fourth but could be challenged by Seasise of Monte Vista Christian. If Seaside or MVC finish fifth they will have a great chance at an at-large spot.


Mount Hamilton


Continues to Be by far the hardest league to handicap. At this point Westmont (by virtue of victories by 1 and 2 points) is the leagues only undefeated team at 2-0. Everyone else is 1-1 except Piedmont Hills who is 0-2 (with losses by 1 and 2 points). Last week the leagues second lowest ranked tea Pioneer blew out the leagues top rated team Leigh by 30 points. Everyone has a reasonable shot at one of the top four league spots. Based on their non-conference schedules Westmont, Leigh and Piedmont Hills will have a great chance at an at-large berth if they finish 5th. The leagues other teams will struggle to get an at-large berth if they don’t get an automatic spot based on their poor preconference records.


Going solely by current Calpreps rankings (still unreliable at this point of the year and most of the teams are ranked extremely close to each other) you end up with a final standings of:


Leigh 6-1

Westmont 6-1

Live Oak 5-2

Santa Teresa 4-3

Oak Grove 3-4

Piedmont Hills 2-5

Lincoln 1-6

Pioneer 1-6



PAL- Bay


Only one game last week as Aragon raced to a 40-0 halftime lead against Sacred Heart Prep and played with a running clock for the second half. Top four teams are fairly balanced between Aragon, Terra Nova, Menlo-Atherton and Half Moon Bay. Burlingame seems to be just a notch below but fully capable of beating one or more of the above teams. SHP really seems to be in a down year this season and is unlikely to get a play-off berth.


WCAL


No real changes here either. SHC will have their eyes on past opponent Fernley as a Fernely win this week will give SHC a great chance of adding another 0.5 to 1 point as Fernley will be in position to win their league.


Non-Open Play-offs


Current projection is a four way tie for the final two at-large spots between Carmel, Fremont, San Mateo and Independence.


Last week saw some changes as Willow Glen beat Silver Creek to put themselves in a great positon for an at-large berth. Cupertino beat Fremont to put themselves in a great positon to capture an automatic qualifying spot. Likewise, King City beat Soledad which makes them a favorite to finish second behind Scotts Valley. Finally, Jefferson upset San Mateo but San Mateo can still get enough points to get on the bubble for an at-large berth.



Division IV


Without Carmel

8. San Mateo 7-3 19, Fremont 6-4 19, or Independence 6-4 19 vs 1. Leland 10-0 28

5. Willow Glen 7-3 20 or Cupertino 7-3 20 vs 4. Carlmont 10-0 24 or Santa Clara 8-2 24

6. Willow Glen 7-3 20 or Cupertino 7-3 20 vs 3. Carlmont 10-0 24 or Santa Clara 8-2 24

7. San Mateo 7-3 19, Fremont 6-4 19, or Independence 6-4 19 vs 2. Christopher 10-0 27


or if Carmel is in

8. San Mateo 7-3 19, Fremont 6-4 19, or Independence 6-4 19 vs 1. Leland 10-0 28

5. Overfelt 8-2 20.5 vs 4. Carlmont 10-0 24 or Santa Clara 8-2 24

6. Willow Glen 7-3 20 or Cupertino 7-3 20 vs 3. Carlmont 10-0 24 or Santa Clara 8-2 24

7. Willow Glen 7-3 20 or Cupertino 7-3 20 vs 2. Christopher 10-0 27


Division V

Without Carmel

8. King City 7-3 20 vs 1. Scotts Valley 9-1 26.5

5. Menlo 7-3 22.5 vs 4. Branham 8-2 24

6. St. Francis (W) 9-1 21.5 vs 3. Gilroy 9-1 24.5

7. Overfelt 8-2 20.5 vs 2. Hillsdale 9-1 25.5


If Carmel gets in


8. Carmel 6-4 19 vs 1. Scotts Valley 9-1 26.5

5. Menlo 7-3 22.5 vs 4. Branham 8-2 24

6. St. Francis (W) 9-1 21.5 vs 3. Gilroy 9-1 24.5

7. King City 7-3 20 vs 2. Hillsdale 9-1 25.5


Leagues


El Camino


Cupertino and Santa Clara can solidify their spots as the leagues top two teams this week with wins over Mountain View and Fremont respectively.


Mission Trail Coastal


St. Francis is the favorite to win this C league with Soquel and Santa Cruz still undefeated in league play.


Mission Trail Mission


King City’s win over Soledad puts them in a good position to capture second place. Scotts Valley is the favorite to win the league and they can solidify that position with win over King City this week. San Lorenzo Valley is also undefeated in league and need to beat Carmel this week to stay in play-off contention.


Monterey – Pacific


Alisal knocked off Watsonville last week which will make it hard for Watsonville to get an at-large berth. Christopher and Gilroy are heavy favorites to take this leagues two automatic spots.


PAL – Ocean


Hillsdale and Menlo solidified their positons as favorites as each coasted to a large shut out win in their league opener.


Pal – Lake


Jefferson upset San Mateo to insert themselves into the league championship picture. Carlmont remains the favorite to win this league. Carlmont has their showdown with San Mateo this week.


Santa Teresa


Leland and Branham are the leagues only undefeated teams and are favored for the top two spots with Leland favored to win the league. Willow Glen beat Silver Creek to elevate them to be in good shape for an at-large berth. Independence is also well positioned for an at-large spot.


West Valley


The leagues four 2-0 teams all square off this week against each other as Evergreen Valley faces Propect and Sobrato takes on Overfelt. The winner of the Sobrato vs Overfelt game will be a heavy favorite to win the league.

One more time: Extremely fine work. Great detail and good explanations. More kudos.

 

[sslg]

I don't know how you do this each year, my hats off to you. There is one correction that I see that needs to be made. You have both Los Gatos and Milpitas going undefeated the rest of the way, but they play each other in the next couple of weeks.

 

[PALbooster]

Good catch - they should be 5-5 with 23 points which still projects them as a D1 5 seed

 

[colhenrylives]

Even the occasional error turns out to be incidental. Amazing.

 

[smitj7]

Absolutely appreciate all the work PALbooster puts in to analyze the data and create the playoff projections this far out. I agree on most of the teams that have been selected, but not sure the final seedings would end up looking like these projections. If these seedings were created solely based on where each team fell per the ccs point system, I totally get it. However, if these match-ups are the actual games projected to occur (albeit a bit early), a few don't work due to the ccs bylaws preventing two teams from the same league playing each other in the first round. I'll apologize in advance if someone already pointed this out and I missed it, and/or if the ccs did away with this rule. If the rule is still in place the following games can't take place round 1.
Open I
8. Palo Alto vs. 1. Milpitas (SCVAL DeAnza League "A")
Open II
6. Mitty vs. 3. St. Francis (WCAL)
8. Serra vs. 1. Valley Christian (WCAL)
Open III
6. Palma vs. 3. Aptos (MBL Gabilan "A")
8. Burlingame vs. 1. HMB (PAL Bay "A")

That said, hats off to you! I do appreciate your work. Crunching that data is not an easy thing to do.

 

[sslg]

I think the CCS did away with the "no league matchups" in the first round rule before last year. I know that LG and Paly played in the D2 first round last year.

 

[smitj7]

Thanks SSLG. Appreciate the info. Looks like I'm a year or two behind. With that, nothing left to do other than say great job to PALbooster, and start working to get caught up on things.

 

[PALbooster]

CCS play-off Picture after Week 6


Not much change for the open play-offs except for continued unpredictable picture of the Mount Hamilton league.


This week shows the final at-large a draw between Burlingame and Leigh

Open Division I

8. Palo Alto 3-7 17 vs 1. Milpitas 10-0 31.5
5. San Benito 7-3 25 vs 4. Piedmont Hills 8-2 26
6. Los Gatos 5-5 23 vs 3. Menlo-Atherton 8-2 28
7. Bellarmine 5-5 21.5 vs Salinas 8-2 29.5


Open Division II With Leigh

8. Leigh 5-5 20 vs 1. Valley Christian 9-1 30
5. Mitty 6-4 25 vs 4. Wilcox 7-3 26
6. Serra 6-4 24.5 vs 3. Aragon 8-2 26.5
7. Oak Grove 5-5 23 vs 2. St Francis 8-2 27

Open Division II with Burlingame

8. Oak Grove 5-5 23 vs 1. Valley Christian 9-1 30
5. Mitty 6-4 25 or Westmont 8-2 25 vs 4. Wilcox 7-3 26
6. Mitty 6-4 25 or Westmont 8-2 25 vs 3. Aragon 8-2 26.5
7. Serra 6-4 24.5 vs 2. St Francis 8-2 27

Open Division III with Leigh

8. SHC 5-5 21 vs 1. Live Oak 7-3 26 or Half Moon Bay 9-1 26
5. Terra Nova 6-4 23 vs 4. Westmont 7-3 25
6. Palma 5-5 21.5 vs 3. Aptos 7-3 25.5
7. Seaside 6-4 21.5 vs 2. Live Oak 7-3 26 or Half Moon Bay 9-1 26

Open Division III with Burlingame

8. Burlingame 6-4 20 vs 1. Live Oak 7-3 26 or Half Moon Bay 9-1 26
5. Palma 5-5 21.5 vs 4. Terra Nova 6-4 23
6. Seaside 6-4 21.5 vs 3. Aptos 7-3 25.5
7. SHC 5-5 21 vs 2. Live Oak 7-3 26 or Half Moon Bay 9-1 26

Deanza
Milpitas is in the drivers seat to win the league after a convincing win over Wilcox. Wilcox and Los Gatos should secure the second and third spots. Palo Alto is well positioned to gain the fourth automatic bid and there will be no at-large team from this league.

Gabilan
League seems to be broken into three tiers. The positioning for the top three spots will occur between Salinas, Aptos and San Benito as they are all 3-0 in league and will play each other over the coming weeks. The fourth spot will come down to the winner in the round robin between Palma, Seaside and Monte Vista Christian. If Seaside or Monte Vista Christian finish fifth they will be a likely at-large team. North Salinas and Alvarez appear to be out of contention and will play for the last two spots in the league.

Mount Hamilton
Continues to defy any prediction due to close parity among all teams in the league and the teams being inconsistent week to week in their performances. Three games in four teams are 2-1 and the other four are 1-2. Current prediction is for Live Oak to win the league and Oak Grove, Westmont and Piedmont Hills to gain the other automatic spots. Leigh is left on the bubble for the section’s final at-large berth


PAL Bay
While Menlo-Atherton is the preseason favorite and is undefeated after two close wins, their play has been less than expected this year. Aragon 6-0 and Half Moon Bay 6-0 are also undefeated in league with better comparative results among common opponents. All three of these teams should gain automatic berths with Terra Nova. Burlingame should be on the bubble for an at-large spot

West Catholic
Serra continues its impressive play in league and will seek to keep pace with Valley Christian when they face off with St. Francis this week. Mitty appears to be a solid fourth. Bellarmine is still projected for fifth and SHC for sixth with both getting at-large berths although Bellarmine has played below its projections in the past couple of weeks.

Non Open Play-offs

The final two at-large berths are projected to come down to a three-way tie between San Mateo, Overfelt and Fremont.

Non Open Division IV
8. San Mateo 7-3 19 or Overfelt 7-3 19 or Fremont 6-4 19 vs 1. Leland 10-0 28
5. Independence 7-3 21 vs 4. Carlmont 10-0 24 or Santa Clara 8-2 24
6. Cupertino 7-3 20 vs 3. Carlmont 10-0 24 or Santa Clara 8-2 24
7. San Mateo 7-3 19 or Overfelt 7-3 19 or Fremont 6-4 19 vs 2. Christopher 9-1 26

Non Open Division V
8. Carmel 6-4 19 vs 1. Gilroy 10-0 27
5. St. Francis Watsonville 21.5 vs 4. Menlo 7-3 22.5
6. Branham 7-3 21 vs 3. Hillsdale 9-1 25.5
7. Sobrato 8-2 19.5 vs 2. Scotts Valley 9-1 26.5

El Camino
The leagues remaining undefeated teams Cupertino and Santa Clara face off for the league championship this week. Fremont is in a good positon to win out and be on the bubble for an at-large berth

Coastal
St. Francis, Soquel and Santa Cruz are all 2-0. St Francis is the favorite to take the league title but must get past the other two undefeated league teams.

Mission Trail
Scotts Valley is in great position to win the league with a final challenge of winning on the road at Soledad. Interesting battle for second place as it projects out to a three way tie between Soeldad, King City and Carmel. Key remaining games are Carmel vs King City in addition to the Scotts Valley vs Soledad game.

Pacific
Gilroy should win the league championship with Christopher gaining the second automatic spot

PAL Ocean
The leagues only remaining undefeated teams should get this leagues two spots.


PAL Lake
Carlmont is the favorite to win the league but still must get past Jefferson which is also unbeaten in league. Even with a loss Carlmont would still be well positioned for an at-large spot. San Mateo is still in position to be on the bubble as an at-large team.

Santa Teresa
Leland is the favorite to win the league and independence should get the second spot. Branham is in good position to get an at-large berth.


West Valley
Sobrato is the favorite to win the league but Evergreen Valley is also 3-0 in league play.

 

[Streak One]

Great work as always.

Open 2 is going to be a gauntlet. Three WCAL powers and then real solid teams in Aragon and Wilcox is quite a field

 

[colhenrylives]

...and Open Division I is about as weak as we've seen so far.

 

[CCSPride47]

If Gilroy goes 10-0, they will opt up to the Open Playoffs. It’s a done deal.

 

[TigerFan94044]

Gilroy cannot opt up they are in the second tier of a league that has a A league. The only teams that could opt up are the members of the Mission trail-Mission trail league a top tier B league

 

[JCBUST]

Gilroy is the program with the best 3 year turnaround in the CCS. Young Coach Rodriguez has done things the right way from day 1 and we are now seeing the results. Discipline, weight room, accountability and a dedicated staff. To my knowledge, I don't recall Gilroy with a section title. This will be the year if they stay healthy. Look for a competitive team next year in the A league. Go Mustangs!

 

[SpeedCity51]

If Gilroy goes 10-0, they will opt up to the Open Playoffs. It’s a done deal.

They can’t opt up.

 

[RLS13]

Gilroy is the program with the best 3 year turnaround in the CCS. Young Coach Rodriguez has done things the right way from day 1 and we are now seeing the results. Discipline, weight room, accountability and a dedicated staff. To my knowledge, I don't recall Gilroy with a section title. This will be the year if they stay healthy. Look for a competitive team next year in the A league. Go Mustangs!

You are right they should be the favorite in either the CCS DIV or DV bracket. If competitive means 4th or 5th best team in Gabilan then yes they will be competitive. This year they are behind Salinas, Hollister, Aptos and maybe Palma. Probably on par with MVC and Seaside.

They have done a nice job in turning around the program but lets not get to excited they are at best a very good "B" league program. Maybe they can build up into a competitive "A" team but I do't see them there yet.

 

[PALbooster]

CCS Play offs after week 7


The only A league in action last week was the Gabilan and there were no upsets as Palma beat MVC and will need a win over Seaside to gain a final automatic berth and Salinas beat San Benito and will have to get by Aptos to win the league title. Alll the open play off projections are the same as last week.


In the lower divisions there was some movement. Alisal’s upset win over Christopher positions them to gain the second automatic berth from the Monterey Pacific league and Christopher will make the play-offs as an at-large team. This was bad news for other bubble teams. The only other change was Scotts Valley non-league loss lowered their point total and moves them from a projected 2 seed to a projected 3 seed but doesn’t change their league status.


Non Open Division IV

8. San Mateo 7-3 19 Overfelt 7-3 19 or Fremont 6-4 19 vs 1. Leland 10-0 28
5. Independence 7-3 21 vs 4. Christopher 8-2, 24 Carlmont 10-0 24 or Santa Clara 8-2 24
6. Alisal 6-4 20.5 vs 3. Christopher 8-2, 24, Carlmont 10-0 24 or Santa Clara 8-2 24
7. Cupertino 7-3 20 vs 2. Christopher 8-2, 24, Carlmont 10-0 24 or Santa Clara 8-2 24

Non Open Division V
8. Carmel 6-4 19 vs 1. Gilroy 10-0 27
5. St. Francis Watsonville 21.5 vs 4. Menlo 7-3 22.5
6. Branham 7-3 21 vs 3. Scotts Valley 8-2 24.5
7. Sobrato 8-2 19.5 vs 2. Hillsdale 9-1 25.5

 

[PALbooster]

CCS Football Play-off Projections After Week 8


Three weeks left and a fair amount of movement this week in play-off projections particularly in some of the non-open league races. Three of the five A leagues have their top two teams facing off this week (VC vs Serra; Oak Grove vs Live Oak, and Aragon vs Half Moon Bay) in games that are all toss-up games will go a long way in determining in league championships.


Current projections show a three way tie for the final At-Large position between Bellarmine, Leigh and Burlingame


Division I W/O Bellarmine

8. Palo Alto 3-7 19 vs 1. Milpitas 10-0 31.5
5. San Benito 7-3 25 vs 4. Wilcox 7-3 25.5
6. Menlo-Atherton 6-4 22.5 vs 3. Piedmont Hills 8-2 26
7. Los Gatos 5-5 22 vs 2. Salinas 8-2 29.5

Division I With Bellarmine

8. Palo Alto 3-7 19 vs 1. Milpitas 10-0 31.5
5. Menlo-Atherton 6-4 22.5 vs 4. San Benito 7-3 25
6. Los Gatos 5-5 22 vs 3. Piedmont Hills 8-2 26
7. Bellarmine 5-5 20 vs 2. Salinas 8-2 29.5

Division II W/O Bellarmine

8. Leigh 5-5 20 vs 1 Aragon 10-0 32
5. Serra 6-4 24.5 vs 4. Mitty 7-3 25
6. Oak Grove 5-5 23 vs 3. St. Francis 8-2 27
7. Westmont 7-3 23 vs 2. Valley Christian 9-1 30


Division II w/o Leigh

8. Westmont 7-3 23 vs 1 Aragon 10-0 32
5. Mitty 7-3 25 vs 4. Wilcox 7-3 25.5
6. Serra 6-4 24.5 vs 3. St. Francis 8-2 27
7. Oak Grove 5-5 23 vs 2. Valley Christian 9-1 30


Division II W/O Burlingame

8. Leigh 5-5 20 vs 1 Aragon 10-0 32
5. Mitty 7-3 25 vs 4. Wilcox 7-3 25.5
6. Serra 6-4 24.5 vs 3. St. Francis 8-2 27
7. Oak Grove 5-5 23 vs 2. Valley Christian 9-1 30

Division III W/O Bellarmine or Leigh

8. Burlingame 6-4 20 vs 1. Aptos 7-3 26.5
5. Sacred Heart Cath 5-5 21 vs 4. Seaside 6-4 22
6. Terra Nova 5-5 20.5 vs 2/3.. Half Moon Bay 9-1 26 or Live Oak 7-3 26
7. Palma 5-5 20.5 vs 2/3. Half Moon Bay 9-1 26 or Live Oak 7-3 26

Division III w/o Burlingame

8. Palma 5-5 20.5 vs 1. Aptos 7-3 26.5
5. Seaside 6-4 22 vs 4. Westmont 7-3 23
6. Sacred Heart Cath 5-5 21 vs 3. Half Moon Bay 9-1 26 or Live Oak 7-3 26
7. Terra Nova 5-5 20.5 vs 2. Half Moon Bay 9-1 26 or Live Oak 7-3 26

Deanza

Most straightforward league. Unless Los Gatos pulls off a major upset against Milpitas, Milpitas will be league champion. Wilcox and Los Gatos will get automatic berths and Palo Alto will get the final automatic spot with a win against either Los Altos or Saratoga. There will not be an at-large berth from this league

Monterey Gabilan

League championship will be determined on 11-03 when the leagues two unbeaten teams Salinas and Aptos face-off. Both will get automatic berths as will San Benito. The final automatic spot will come down to Palma, Seaside and Monte Vista Christian. Palma can gain the last spot with a win over Seaside. Seaside still plays both Palma and MVC and one win will give them an at-large spot. Two wins will give them the final automatic spot. MVC needs a win over Seaside to get either an at large berth or the final automatic spot (would also need Seaside to beat Palma).

Mount Hamilton

Balanced league is beginning to see some definition. The leagues two one loss teams Live Oak and Oak Grove play this week with the winner being well positioned to win the league. The loser should get an automatic spot. The other two automatic berths should go to Piedmont Hills and Westmont and Leigh has a chance for an at-large spot. Santa Teresa at 1-3 needs to win out to make the play-offs and 2-2 Pioneer will need to win 2 of their final three games.

Pal Bay

Half Moon Bay plays at Aragon this week and they are the two remaining undefeated teams. Both will get automatic berths as well Menlo-Atherton. The leagues bottom three teams Sacred Heart, Burlingame and Terra Nova will battle for the final spot. Sacred Heart upset Terra Nova this week and play Burlingame next week. If SHP beats Burlingame they will likely get the final spot. Burlingame and Terra Nova could be in position to get at-large berths if they end league with only one win.

West Catholic

Serra and Valley Christian play next week as the leagues only two undefeated teams. Serra still plays St. Francis later in the season. All three of these teams will get automatic spots. Mitty picked up a forfeit win over Sacramento this week and gained two points, but lose a point from Sacramento being downgraded to a B team and likely going from sole league champion to being a co-champion. I had also given them a point for beating Menlo-Atherton, but MA is unlikely to be a league champion. Mitty should get the fourth automatic spots. An interesting scenario is developing between Bellarmine and SHC who should battle for 5th place.

If Bellarmine wins there is a likely scenario where Bellarmine finishes up with 20 points and ahead of SHC who could finish with 21 points and in 6th place with a win over Riordan. I am not sure if the WCAL has retained their league integrity rule which would require Belllarmine to be placed into the play-off field before SHC can get a spot. If SHC beats Bellarmine it is unlikely Bellarmine will make the field.

Non-Open Divisions
Division IV
With Carmel in Field

8. Cupertino 7-3 20.5 vs 1. Leland 10-0 28
5. Alisal 6-4 21 or Independence 7-3 21 or 4. Branham 7-3 21.5
6. Alisal 6-4 21 or Independence 7-3 21 vs 3. Carlmont 10-0 24 or Cristopher 8-2 24
7. Santa Clara 7-3 20.5 vs 2. Carlmont 10-0 24 or Cristopher 8-2 24

W/out Carmel in Field

8. Fremont 6-4 19 or San Mateo 7-3 19 vs 1. Leland 10-0 28
4/5. Alisal 6-4 21 vs 4/5 Independence 7-3 21
6. Santa Clara 7-3 20.5 Alisal 6-4 21 vs 3. Carlmont 10-0 24 or Christopher 8-2 24
7. Cupertino 7-3 20.5 vs 2. Carlmont 10-0 24 or Christopher 8-2 24

Division V
With Carmel in Field

8. Carmel 6-4 19 vs 1. Gilroy 10-0 27.5
5. St. Francis 9-1 21.5 vs 4. Scotts Valley 7-3 22
6. Soledad 7-3 21 vs Menlo 7-3 22.5
7. Sobrato 7-3 20.5 vs 2. Hillsdale 9-1 26.5

W/Out Carmel in the field

8. Sobrato 7-3 20.5 vs 1. Gilroy 10-0 27.5
5. St. Francis 9-1 21.5 or Branham 7-3 21.5 vs 4. Scotts Valley 7-3 22
6. St. Francis 9-1 21.5 or Branham 7-3 21.5 vs Menlo 7-3 22.5
7. Soledad 7-3 21 vs 2. Hillsdale 9-1 26.

El Camino

Mountain View upset Santa Clara leaving Cupertino as the leagues only undefeated team. Santa Clara plays Cupertino later in the season. A Santa Clara win will likely create co-champions. A Cupertino win will put Fremont and Mountain View in the picture for the second automatic berth with Santa Clara. Fremont and Mountain View will be on the bubble for at-large berths although Fremont owns a tie breaker over Mt. view by winning their head to head match up.

Mission Trail

Soledad’s win over Scotts Valley leaves three one loss teams (King City is the other) going into the end of the season. Soledad and Scotts Velley will be heavy favorites to win their final two games. King City will be a slight underdog when they go to play Carmel this week. Carmel with a win over King City will stay on the bubble for the final at-large spot

Mission Trail Coastal

Santa Cruz and St. Francis remain undefeated in this C league. Soquel has one loss. St. Francis also has Soquel left to play.

Monterey Pacific

Gilroy has a lock on an automatic spot as the league’s only undefeated team. Alisal will also guarantee themselves a play-off spot with a win over Pajaro Valley. Christopher is a lock for an at-large berth. Watsonville at 5-2 needs to win at least two of their remaining three games and have both Gilroy and Christopher on their schedule.

PAL Ocean

The league title will likely be decided this week as the leagues two undefeated teams Menlo and Hillsdale play. These two teams should get the league’s two spots. Kings Academy will need a final week upset of Hillsdale to have a chance at a play-off berth.

PAL Lake

Jefferson and Carlmont play this week for the league championship. Carlmont will likely get an at-large with a loss. Jefferson would need to win out and have Mission win the AAA to gain an at-large spot if they loss against Carlmont. San Mateo could be on the bubble for an at-large spot if they win 2 of their final three games.

Santa Teresa

Undefeated Leland is the favorite to win the league. Independence is in position to take the second spot. Branham is well positioned for an at-large spot and Willow Glen still controls their own destiny but must come up with an upset of either Leland or Independence.

West Valley

Looks Like Sobrato has a hold on this league and should get the league’s one berth.