2021 PCAL Predictions

[RLS13]

2021 PCAL Preview

BvalBooster stole a little bit of my thunder with his fantastic CCS predictions last Friday. But here is how I see the PCAL for this season.

I think we are going to see a lot of great football, and due to last years abbreviated, postponed, canceled season I think we will see a a lot of new unheralded talent show up that will make the league races surprising.

The PCAL is part of the CCS and represents all the 11-man football teams of Santa Cruz, San Benito and Monterey Counties. It also includes the 2 Gilroy public schools: Christopher and Gilroy. However, it is my understanding these 2 schools will be leaving after this year. For football it is broken down into 4 leagues based on equity: Gabilan (A), Mission (B+), Cypress (B-) and Santa Lucia (C). Due to the Pandemic last year, there were no changes so all schools were left in their 2020 league. This will benefit some schools and hurt others that may have lost a talented senior class. Quick reminder that A leagues get 4 automatic qualifiers, B 2 qualifiers and C 1 qualifier for playoffs. The rest will be ranked by a point system for the final 7 at large births. Basically a 5th place A team has a good chance of making playoff and while a 3rd place B or a 2nd Place C will need help to make an at large field.

Games start on 8/26 and I will do a weekly prediction as well.

Gabilan-

This division is dominated by Aptos, Palma and Salinas. Hollister is a historically strong program, but has not won a league title since 2011 (they have CCS titles in 2012 and 2015). This year instead of just 3 or 4 lambs to include with the big boys they added 5, for a league of 9. That should help the 5th place team earn enough bonus points to qualify for an at large bid. You can take 1-4 and place them in any order but here is what I see.

• Aptos- Blankenship always turns out great teams, they will be loaded in the backfield and should have enough size upfront to hold off Salinas and Palma for the title. (8-2)
• Hollister- They played a couple of WCAL power teams tough last spring, and that was a young team. That experience will help them challenge at the top of the Gabilan. (7-3)
• Palma- They have DI prospect at TE and a 3rd year QB returning. Speed on the outside and at RB. Their biggest hurdle will be the play upfront, some young guys will have to step up on both sides of the line. (7-3)
• Salinas- They will have close to 70+ kids on the sidelines, but they have a lot of holes to fill on both sides of the ball. If some of these young guys step-up they could easily win the title. (6-4)
• Christopher- The question with Christopher is how this talented roster will do under a new head coach, for the first time is school history. I can see them pulling off at least one “upset”. (6-4)
• Alisal – 3 yards and a cloud of dust. Alisal will run the ball and run it some more. They are built for this league, and that physicality will help them challenge for a playoff spot. (5-5)
• MVC- I loved the direction the program was headed, then last fall, their coach left. This is a small private school that wants to be like Palma, but they need to get some stability at the head coaching position. (3-7)
• Alverez- Their new coach McKay is great, and he will build the program, but not sure if they have the horses this year, outside of RB1, to really compete every week in the Gabilan. (2-8)
• Seaside- They did not play at all last year, not sure what numbers are looking like. This school probably belongs in a B league. (2-8)

Mission

This league is the B+ of the PCAL and of the 4 divisions, I believe the most balanced form top to bottom. Three programs; Soledad, Gonzales and Monterey, did not play last spring. Carmel only played 2 games; the other teams got 4-5 games in the spring. Will it that matter? Top 2 teams are guaranteed playoffs, but I do believe that because the PCAL has another “B” division, that CCS will allow 3 teams from the Mission and only 1 from the Cypress. (somebody who understands CCS playoff can confirm!). I do believe the third-place team will have a good chance of getting in, even as a wildcard.

• Santa Cruz- Overshadowed by neighboring power Aptos, it has quietly built a very nice program the past 4 years or so. They return one of the top RB’s and WR’s in the area and have some size upfront to move people around. (8-2)
• Carmel- I am predicting 7-3 but could easily go 1-9 (They will beat PG!). They played 2 games last spring and used them to get excitement into the program: it worked as close to 75 kids showed up this year for both programs. Far cry from the 50 they had in 2019. But they lack experience. They have 1 possible D1 recruit on the Defensive side at LB, and they will have 1 speedster who will line up all over on offense. Looks like they have some good size (for Carmel) in the trenches. This will be Anderson’s best coaching job if he can get this team into the playoffs. (7-3)
• Gilroy- Head Coach Tim Pierleoni comes across town, after 15(?) years of being Christopher’s only head coach, to help rebuild his alma mater. They have a very good QB returning and there is finally some excitement around the program after a bad hazing incident shuttered the program in 2019. (7-3)
• Soquel – The 2020 team would have competed for a championship, but they lost quite a bit. However, Coach Lowery has built a nice program. They will be quick and they will be physical on defense. (6-4)
• Monterey – I saw them at a 7v7, and they thoroughly dominated an undermanned Carmel team. They will have the athletes to compete with anybody, the biggest question is how they will work as a unit. This program did not play last year and playing disciplined football has been an issue with this team in the past. (5-5)
• North Salinas – This program has not been good recently. This year’s team may be better than I have them ranked, as they have a very good WR and a RB returning. They are still working on finding a QB, and until they show it on the field, I am keeping them in the bottom half of the league. (5-5)
• Soledad- Like North Salinas this team may be ranked low. 4 Head Coaches in 5 years, and not playing at all last year makes it difficult to move them higher. The town is 100% behind this team and the youth program was thriving prior to the pandemic. Their new HC will bring this program back, just may take a year or two. (4-6)
• Gonzales – The program belonged in this league last year with a very good 2020 senior class. Not having played last year and losing that class, and their head coach an argument can be made that this team should be down in the Cypress. (3-7)

 

[RLS13]

2021 PCAL Continued
Cypress

This is the B- league of the PCAL. Right now, they are allotted 2 playoff births but as mentioned above I believe the PCAL can give that birth to the Mission if they want. I believe this will be a 2 team race between King City and Scott’s Valley. Most of the teams got some football in last spring, the exception was North Monterey County whose district chose not to play last year.

• King City- Beating Carmel last spring and matching up with Power programs like Palma, Hollister and NCS’s Rancho Cotati has built some confidence in this group. They have size upfront on both side of the ball and have some great skill players coming back. If the young QB can make the right reads, this team will be very good. Depth could be an issue as King City historically has had some injuries to key players. (9-1)
• Scott’s Valley- Circle 10/22 when Scott’s Valley makes one of the longest bus trips in the PCAL and goes down to King City. This game should decide the Cypress championship. The Falcons return a core group from a 5-0 spring campaign, but the schedule was no that tough (no Aptos or Santa Cruz). (8-2)
• Watsonville – Next three teams could be placed in any order, I am going with Watsonville. New coach had some time to install the Wing T last spring, I understand that numbers are up. I expect this program to start rising in the next couple of years. (6-4)
• North Monterey County – They may have more talent then some of the teams in front, but not playing last year and new head coach will make it very difficult to contend. I do believe the future is bright at NMC, but it will take some time to get there. (5-5).
• San Lorenzo Valley – As a lot of these programs post pandemic, SLV will have a new coach and will be battling depth issues. I expect them to be competitive, just don’t think they will have enough this year. (4-6)
• Pacific Grove- Nobody Cares! Really who cares, they will probably win 1 or 2 games. They have some athletes, but their numbers are down, and they lack size and depth upfront. I am hoping they go 0-10. (2-8)
• Rancho San Juan- Time will tell if playing last spring was good decision for this new high school. They lost all 3 of their games by a 56-0 average and did not even secure a first down. They will face easier competition this fall, but I can’t pick them in any game on their schedule right now. They should probably be placed in the Lucia. (0-10)

Lucia

The idea here was a 6-team conference, with Harker scheduling a game with each team, so each team had only 3-4 open slots to fill. Well not only is Harker not fielding a Varsity team neither is league member Marina. So, we now have a 5-team conference. RLS is the only team not to have played a at least 1 game last year, but I do believe they may be the favorite. To fill holes in the schedule, a lot of the teams will play a league game and a “non-league” game against each other. The winner will get a CCS playoff birth.

• RLS (Stevenson): Yes I am homer, bandwagoner etc.. But this team will be good by Lucia standards as they return one of the best athletes in the whole PCAL at WR. He won the CCS 100- and 200-Meters last spring, the kid is a big-time athlete. They will have enough players to surround him to win, even if though they took last spring off. They first game is not until 9/17 and currently they are only playing 7 games vs 5 teams. (6-1)
• St Francis (Watsonville): The Sharks are the little program that can. Every year they amaze me by being competitive with such a small roster 18-24. This year will be no different, the league game with RLS is 9/25 and that should decide the champion. (5-5)
• Greenfield: Played PG to a tie in its only game last spring. Numbers are up, and there is some enthusiasm around the campus. New coach just needs some more time to get players vested into his system. (4-6)
• Pajaro Valley: Maybe the new stadium will get kids excited about playing football. They have really never been competitive, but with a new facility may come an improved outlook for the future. (1-9)
• Harbor: I like what they are doing non-league. They will win some games by playing “like” programs. This should help turn around the past 10 years of really bad football. (4-6)
• Marina: They are not fielding a team, but I have something to say about this. They are in an open district with Seaside and Monterey. Why would any football player choose to attend Marina, when the district will not fund them? Meanwhile Seaside just received a new stadium and Monterey is about to break grounds on their new sports complex. To the district I ask either eliminate football at Marina or invest in the school and the town the same you do with the other 2 high schools. Rant over.

 

[Prepwisdom]

RLS13- Why all the incessant hate for Pacific Grove. Did you lose to them in high school?! You have a pretty good grasp of Monterey Bay football but always seem to plug in a dig when referring to the breakers.

 

[RLS13]

You are right I do not like PG that much! I actually know a bunch of the kids and families over there and they are great people. However attending RLS and being the parent of Carmel High kids, you can say that PG has always been a hated rival.

(And yes they used to beat us, but so did a lot of other teams!!😉)

 

[NorCalSportsFan]

Nice summary. Palma will challenge and defense will be better than last season. Line on defense should be decent and will have run stuffer Sr Caleb Moran Murphy, C, NG/DL (6-0, 298) back who broke 20+ year bench record at Palma benching over 415lbs. On offense he'll play Center and very string pass blocker. Sr 6-6, 245lb Joseph Finley, DT,DE, TE is also back from being two way starter, and Javier Avilla, DE/OLB, TE/OG (6-1, 230) and fast is back on defense. Defensive backs and LBs will be very good. Offense returns 3 year starter at QB and WRs/TEs/Slots will be very strong. Tall and fast - Finley, 6-6, 245, Sr., Caesar Aldasert, WR (6-4, 180), and soph Logan Saldate 6-0, 180 WR/DB may be one of the better players on both sides of the ball and Sr Joe Cardinale, (5-11, 180) WR/DB and top RB will move to WR from RB last season with Jr back at RB JC Escutia who played up as frosh two seasons ago and was out injured last short season. He will be a very good one. Palma also has a soph RB Gavin Martinez who is big 6-0, 210 and runs 11.4 100 as frosh (believe fastest 100M time for frosh in CCS) that is futre star. Also have a junior RB/LB that will be a star. Defense should be very good and offense is stacked with skill players and will be big and faster than last season. Line on offense will have some inexperience but they will be passing alot more this season and have skill players that are playmakers. The sophs that will be starting started on a very good JV team that defeated San Joaquin Memorial.

Salinas lines should be very strong - lots of experience and QB will have a year and a half behind him and lots of speed at WR. Aptos has lots coming back but line not big and last season schedule was not against PCAL top teams. Hollister needs to reload alot but offense should be wide open again.

I think Aptos and Palma will be challenging for title. Even though Hollister beat Palma last season, Palma defense will match up much better this season on defensive line and LBs and DBs will be overall better on corners and safety although they will miss JT Amaral but replacement is going to be very good. Also against Salinas although Salinas defense should be pretty good on lines. Palma sophs up on the o-line will have experience as starters on JV that was pretty good. By first game against Aptos defense should be stout. Not sure why calpreps scores Palma so low to start. They played San Joaquin Memorial to within 7 points until they fell apart in mid third quarter and gave up at end of Q4. Will know how good Palma is when they play Mitty and Scred GHeart Cathedral. Aptos is will have challenge in week two against Campolindo which will probably will be a little down and Mills will be like a scrimmage. Both Palma Rossi and Aptos Forbes will have good QBs.

 

[colhenrylives]

With all due respect, neither Mitty nor SHC will provide an indication of Palma's real strength. Both WCAL teams are ticketed for the lower echelon of the league.

 

[jordan24]

Mitty, Riordan and SHC did not field JV teams because of the abbreviated COVID season last Spring.
Appears Riordan will be having all three levels - Varsity, JV and Frosh back this season. Any update on Mitty and SHC?

 

[NorCalSportsFan]

With all due respect, neither Mitty nor SHC will provide an indication of Palma's real strength. Both WCAL teams are ticketed for the lower echelon of the league.

Tough to say- In short pandemic season, Mitty played relatively close to VC and Bells. SHC relatively close to SI and defeated Riordan. VC defeated SF and relatively close to Serra in loss. Based on last season tough to say but both teams are typically above average as far as most league teams.

Palma JV plays Mitty but not scheduled to play SHC. Palma frosh not playing Mitty but scheduled to play SHC. Palma is fielding three teams after only having JV (frosh soph) last season. Many of the frosh last season started on JV and will be interesting what the JV team looks like in numbers as it was small with many playing up on varsity. Haven't heard much about Palma frosh team yet although they were expecting maybe an up year. Everey other class usually has higher numbers.