Final Look at the CIF Bowl Divisions

[Cal 14]

Open Division (Section Division, Calpreps ratings)

North: De La Salle (NCS Open, 68.2) vs. South: Mater Dei (SS D-I, 101.7)

D-1AA

North: Folsom (SJS D-1, 63.7) vs. Pittsburg (NCS D-1, 55.7)

South: Newbury Park (SS D-2, 66.6) vs. Lincoln (SDS Open, 63.2)

D-1A

North: Central (CS D-IAA, 54.2) vs. St. Ignatius (CCS Open, 48.2)

South: Edison (SS D-3, 55.9) vs. Granite Hills (SDS D-I, 46.5)

D-2AA

North: Grant (SJS D-2, 48.5) vs. St. Francis (CCS D-I, 44.1)

South: Pacifica (SS D-4, 45.7) vs. Narbonne (LACS Open, 31.6)

D-2A

North: Twelve Bridges (SJS D-4, 42.2) vs. Wilcox (CCS D-II, 31.1)

South: Palos Verdes Estates (SS D-5, 35.7) vs. Bakersfield Christian (CS D-II, 32.8)

D-3AA

North: Amador Valley (NCS D-2, 30.1) vs. Pleasant Valley (NS D-2, 29.5)

South: Rio Hondo Prep (SS D-7, 31.4) vs. Frontier (CS D-IA, 31.0)

D-3A

North: Hughson (SJS D-5, 25.8) vs. McClymonds (OS, 11.8)

South: Poway (SDS D-II, 30.0) vs. Murrieta Mesa (SS D-6, 29.1)

D-4AA

North: Vanden (SJS D-3, 25.6) vs. St. Vincent de Paul (NCS D-5, 24.0)

South: Highland (SS D-9, 20.5) vs. Coalinga (CS D-IV, 20.0)

D-4A

North: Sonora (SJS D-6, 25.6) vs. Acalanes (NCS D-3, 20.2)

South: Kerman (CS D-III, 17.5) vs. St. Pius X-St. Matthias (SS D-8, 14.5)

D-5AA

North: Carmel (CCS D-III, 19.9) vs. American Canyon (NCS D-4, 13.0)

South: St. Augustine (SDS D-III, 10.8) vs. Silverado (SS D-10, 7.3)

D-5A

North: Arcata (NCS D-6, 10.4) vs. Lassen (NS D-3, 8.0)

South: El Capitan (SDS D-IV, 4.1) vs. Palmdale (SS D-12, 1.4)

D-6AA

North: Winters (NS D-4, 7.8) vs. Sacred Heart Prep (CCS D-IV, 7.3)

South: Portola (SS D-11, 0.4) vs. King/Drew (LACS D-I, -0.8)

D-6A

North: Summerville (SJS D-7, 6.7) vs. Moreau Catholic (NCS D-7, 5.3)

South: Selma (CS D-V, -3.4) vs. Pasadena (SS D-13, -9.7)

D-7AA

North: Leland (CCS D-V, -3.9) vs. Lindsay (CS D-VI, -13.3)

South: Monte Vista (SDS D-V, -15.3) vs. Chatsworth (LACS D-II, -23.2)

D-7A

North: Balboa (SFS, -16.8) vs. Los Molinos (NS D-5, -33.6)

South: Pioneer (SS D-14, -25.6) vs. Panorama City (LACS D-III, -39.2)

 

[Cal 14]

1. Assuming all section/division winners choose to participate, the brackets fill out nicely.

2. Very few outright mismatches. Perhaps 3 on the North side (D-5AA, D-7AA, and D-7A) and 2 on the South side (D-7AA and D-7A). The rest look reasonable to me, although Wilcox will probably need their starting QB back for their game.

3. Best guesses on McClymonds is D-3A and D-2AA for Narbonne. Gauchos looked really strong in their title game and their rating probably would have improved had their league not forfeited all of the games. We're going to have to ignore that all of those games would have ended in losses for Narbonne due to forfeits.

 

[Streak One]

Great work on these projections! And I agree that there are a lot of fun matchups if this is how the board lands.

 

[MTsince2004]

I thought Vanden beat Oakdale in the SJS D3 final.

 

[FBAddict]

D-4A

North: Oakdale (SJS D-3, 23.8) vs. Acalanes (NCS D-3, 20.2)

South: Kerman (CS D-III, 17.5) vs. St. Pius X-St. Matthias (SS D-8, 14.5)

Just a note - Vanden beat Oakdale last night. I'm not in front of my list so I can't remember if it is as simple as replacing Vanden with Oakdale's slot. I do remember that 3 or 4 teams in this block had CP ratings within factions of a point.

 

[Cal 14]

🤦🏻‍♂️

Fixed and swapped with Sonora due division integrity, despite same Calpreps rating.

 

[FBAddict]

2. Very few outright mismatches. Perhaps 3 on the North side (D-5AA, D-7AA, and D-7A) and 2 on the South side (D-7AA and D-7A). The rest look reasonable to me, although Wilcox will probably need their starting QB back for their game.

Definite mismatches at this level - but there is nothing CIF can do about the final few teams being matched.

Regarding Wilcox, the Chargers will have problems without their starting QB. The same team that beat Los Gatos struggled with Palma. I am not suggesting something negative about Palma - in fact the Chieftains did well in their playoff journey. But the trending data for Wilcox shows they performed less effectively than normal.

 

[FBAddict]

Open Division (Section Division, Calpreps ratings)

North: De La Salle (NCS Open, 68.2) vs. South: Mater Dei (SS D-I, 101.7)

D-1AA

North: Folsom (SJS D-1, 63.7) vs. Pittsburg (NCS D-1, 55.7)

South: Newbury Park (SS D-2, 66.6) vs. Lincoln (SDS Open, 63.2)

D-1A

North: Central (CS D-IAA, 54.2) vs. St. Ignatius (CCS Open, 48.2)

South: Edison (SS D-3, 55.9) vs. Granite Hills (SDS D-I, 46.5)

D-2AA

North: Grant (SJS D-2, 48.5) vs. St. Francis (CCS D-I, 44.1)

South: Pacifica (SS D-4, 45.7) vs. Narbonne (LACS Open, 31.6)

D-2A

North: Twelve Bridges (SJS D-4, 42.2) vs. Wilcox (CCS D-II, 31.1)

South: Palos Verdes Estates (SS D-5, 35.7) vs. Bakersfield Christian (CS D-II, 32.8)

D-3AA

North: Amador Valley (NCS D-2, 30.1) vs. Pleasant Valley (NS D-2, 29.5)

South: Rio Hondo Prep (SS D-7, 31.4) vs. Frontier (CS D-IA, 31.0)

D-3A

North: Hughson (SJS D-5, 25.8) vs. McClymonds (OS, 11.8)

South: Poway (SDS D-II, 30.0) vs. Murrieta Mesa (SS D-6, 29.1)

D-4AA

North: Vanden (SJS D-3, 25.6) vs. St. Vincent de Paul (NCS D-5, 24.0)

South: Highland (SS D-9, 20.5) vs. Coalinga (CS D-IV, 20.0)

D-4A

North: Sonora (SJS D-6, 25.6) vs. Acalanes (NCS D-3, 20.2)

South: Kerman (CS D-III, 17.5) vs. St. Pius X-St. Matthias (SS D-8, 14.5)

D-5AA

North: Carmel (CCS D-III, 19.9) vs. American Canyon (NCS D-4, 13.0)

South: St. Augustine (SDS D-III, 10.8) vs. Silverado (SS D-10, 7.3)

D-5A

North: Arcata (NCS D-6, 10.4) vs. Lassen (NS D-3, 8.0)

South: El Capitan (SDS D-IV, 4.1) vs. Palmdale (SS D-12, 1.4)

D-6AA

North: Winters (NS D-4, 7.8) vs. Sacred Heart Prep (CCS D-IV, 7.3)

South: Portola (SS D-11, 0.4) vs. King/Drew (LACS D-I, -0.8)

D-6A

North: Summerville (SJS D-7, 6.7) vs. Moreau Catholic (NCS D-7, 5.3)

South: Selma (CS D-V, -3.4) vs. Pasadena (SS D-13, -9.7)

D-7AA

North: Leland (CCS D-V, -3.9) vs. Lindsay (CS D-VI, -13.3)

South: Monte Vista (SDS D-V, -15.3) vs. Chatsworth (LACS D-II, -23.2)

D-7A

North: Balboa (SFS, -16.8) vs. Los Molinos (NS D-5, -33.6)

South: Pioneer (SS D-14, -25.6) vs. Panorama City (LACS D-III, -39.2)

This is really good -

I do have some different matching in the middle pairing groups. But almost all of it can be explained by the low rating given to Mack by CP. I understand your rationale for moving Mack so high but I am guessing the CIF committee may not move them as high as your placement.

The problem, which you identify, is the natural placement via CP points pits Hughson against Sonora. They are from the same league which I hope the CIF Committee will avoid. My parings in the mid range is as follows:
Hughson vs Vanden
Sonora vs St. Vincent de Paul
Acalanes vs Carmel
American Canyon vs McClymonds

As you can see, I matched almost exclusively by CP points. And this pairing list doesn't account for Mack's likelihood of low points due to the crazy Oakland league section scheduling.

 

[Cal 14]

This is really good -

I do have some different matching in the middle pairing groups. But almost all of it can be explained by the low rating given to Mack by CP. I understand your rationale for moving Mack so high but I am guessing the CIF committee may not move them as high as your placement.

The problem, which you identify, is the natural placement via CP points pits Hughson against Sonora. They are from the same league which I hope the CIF Committee will avoid. My parings in the mid range is as follows:
Hughson vs Vanden
Sonora vs St. Vincent de Paul
Acalanes vs Carmel
American Canyon vs McClymonds

As you can see, I matched almost exclusively by CP points. And this pairing list doesn't account for Mack's likelihood of low points due to the crazy Oakland league section scheduling.

American Canyon vs McClymonds would be a mismatch, in my opinion. I’m thinking AC vs Carmel is somewhat of a mismatch.

Really, Calpreps had a number of preseason errors. They have claimed at some point that the rating at the end would be the same as if everyone started at 0.0, but that’s not true. They had the Warriors at -0.1, I believe, which was grossly incorrect.

They had more teams at 0.0 this year than I’ve ever seen. Really strange.

 

[VVAL FAN]

American Canyon is playing Lassen in 5A

 

[NCS707]

This is really good -

I do have some different matching in the middle pairing groups. But almost all of it can be explained by the low rating given to Mack by CP. I understand your rationale for moving Mack so high but I am guessing the CIF committee may not move them as high as your placement.

The problem, which you identify, is the natural placement via CP points pits Hughson against Sonora. They are from the same league which I hope the CIF Committee will avoid. My parings in the mid range is as follows:
Hughson vs Vanden
Sonora vs St. Vincent de Paul
Acalanes vs Carmel
American Canyon vs McClymonds

As you can see, I matched almost exclusively by CP points. And this pairing list doesn't account for Mack's likelihood of low points due to the crazy Oakland league section scheduling.

Mack not blowing out teams in the OAL playoffs really lowered their ranking. They really only have a nice win vs BOD and a close loss to Riordan. Other than that they no doubt seem a bit down compared to recent years. Very tough to place.

 

[Relly900]

Folsom vs Pitt
Central vs sicp
Grant vs st Francis

Are 3 potential great games. Those are great matchups


Grant come back crazy

From 2019-2021

That 3 years grant went 2-19

The last 3 years grant is 34-9 with wins over Rocklin twice and st Mary's and Los gatos

Also they won a state title, and got to another

Shout out to the coaching staff