NCS Playoff Predictions (1 week early)

[noknight]

I tried this a few weeks ago, but now that the seedings are a week away, I thought I'd take another stab at it.

D-I

1 - DLS
2 - Foothill
3 - Pittsburg
4 - Antioch
5 - Monte Vista
6 - Freedom
7 - Amador Valley
8 - California
9 - Logan
10 - San Leandro
11 - Dublin
12 - Dougherty Valley
13 - Irvington

Teams that would qualify with a win this weekend = Liberty (Freedom), San Ramon Valley (Monte Vista), College Park (Clayton Valley). I don't think any of that happens

So yes, I'm still predicting a Pirates win over Antioch this weekend, which sets up the top 4 seeds. If Antioch wins, I think they'll get the 2 seed over Foothill, but wouldn't bet my life on it. I don't know how they'll settle the 5-8 seeds for sure (MV beat Amador Valley, who beat Cal, who beat MV), but I gave the top of these to MV for their win over Pittsburg, then Freedom for their tough schedule, then went AV > Cal based on head-to-head. Logan beat San Leandro, but since that's their best win, I have them 9 & 10. Dublin beat Dougherty Valley, and Irvington barely qualified by beating 5 really bad teams.

With a win over Tennyson this weekend, San Leandro would win their league and get a home playoff game at Burrell, which could be interesting for a game against the 7 seed (I list Amador Valley). I wouldn't be shocked to see San Leandro win a game. And in the end, DLS will likely run the table.

D-II

1 - Clayton Valley
2 - Miramonte
3 - Concord
4 - Tennyson
5 - American
6 - Granada
7 - Pinole Valley
8 - Casa Grande (who has to beat Montgomery this weekend to qualify)
9 - Windsor
10 - Carrillo
11 - Livermore
12 - Alameda
13 - Northgate
14 - Redwood
15 - Hayward
16 - Washington

Mt. Eden will likely qualify by beating San Lorenzo, but I think they end up being the odd team out. Washington's win over American is better than anybody Mt. Eden beat by far. I don't see anybody preventing a Clayton Valley/Miramonte final.

D-III

1 - Campolindo
2 - Analy
3 - Rancho Cotate
4 - Alhambra
5 - Petaluma
6 - De Anza
7 - Bishop O'Dowd
8 - El Cerrito
9 - Eureka
10 - Acalanes
11 - Kennedy
12 - Novato (need to beat San Rafael this weekend)
13 - Terra Linda
14 - Piner
15 - Ygnacio Valley
16 - Sonoma Valley (have to beat Allen this weekend)

Pee yew! Less than half of these teams will be over .500 going into the playoffs. Somebody called this "the most interesting division" earlier this week? Different strokes, I guess. I have Petaluma and De Anza higher than they probably should be based on winning records over really weak schedules, and I wouldn't be shocked if, say, a Kennedy managed to win in the first round. It sets up an Analy/Rancho semifinal for the right to take on Campo.

D-IV

1 - Cardinal Newman
2 - Marin Catholic
3 - Fortuna
4 - Moreau Catholic
5 - Fort Bragg
6 - Piedmont
7 - Justin-Siena
8 - St. Mary's
9 - St. Helena
10 - San Marin
11 - Hercules
12 - Harker
13 - Del Norte
14 - Encinal
15 - Lower Lake
16 - Healdsburg

Now THIS is the most interesting division in NCS. OK, D-I would have been if it weren't for the fact that DLS is going to win it. I could easily see the committee making Fortuna the 1 seed - they're undefeated and the teams they've beaten stack up against MC and CN's best wins. Plus, I could see the committee not liking what their move back to D-IV did both to the D-III bracket and this one, and what better way to let them know than forcing them to play in a semifinal instead of the final? I went with CN over MC because I think their strength of schedule is higher. I went with Moreau at 4 over Fort Bragg in part because I'm not sure they'll give the Redwood Empire the top 4 seeds. Similarly, I think Piedmont's wins are better than St. Mary's wins, and with their head-to-head over Justin-Siena it set up 6-8. I won't be stunned if St. Helena moves up into a top 8 seed at 9-1. I don't see anybody after 9 really making any noise. I think the CN/MC winner is the favorite, but don't sleep on Fortuna!

We'll see how good or bad these are when the seedings come on next Sunday...

 

[1tunz1]

"Plus, I could see the committee not liking what their move back to D-IV did both to the D-III bracket and this one, and what better way to let them know than forcing them to play in a semifinal instead of the final?"

And what exactly did CN/MC move do to D3/4 sections, besides move the teams to their enrollment division? What's not to like? It sounds as though you don't like it, but who cares?It's no big deal for MC/CN to play in semifinal (IF they make it that far against the likes of Fortuna and Moreau)

 

[noknight]

"Plus, I could see the committee not liking what their move back to D-IV did both to the D-III bracket and this one, and what better way to let them know than forcing them to play in a semifinal instead of the final?"

And what exactly did CN/MC move do to D3/4 sections, besides move the teams to their enrollment division? What's not to like? It sounds as though you don't like it, but who cares?It's no big deal for MC/CN to play in semifinal (IF they make it that far against the likes of Fortuna and Moreau)

You might want to ease up on the attitude, buddy. I've previously defended them for playing up when they needed to. However, there's lots of sentiment against the move from others, both on these boards and among some of the coaches I've spoken to. If enough of the other league reps feel that way, don't be surprised to see them 2 and 3 with Fortuna at 1. A case can be made that they deserve the 1 seed anyway. Then neither will have to worry about Fortuna or Moreau until they get by one another, and your condescension won't seem quite so funny.

 

[1tunz1]

You might want to ease up on the attitude, buddy. I've previously defended them for playing up when they needed to. However, there's lots of sentiment against the move from others, both on these boards and among some of the coaches I've spoken to. If enough of the other league reps feel that way, don't be surprised to see them 2 and 3 with Fortuna at 1. A case can be made that they deserve the 1 seed anyway. Then neither will have to worry about Fortuna or Moreau until they get by one another, and your condescension won't seem quite so funny.

Haha. I don't think CN/MC needed defending for playing up. Why don't you defend your statements above by answering the questions in my post instead of being overly sensitive to a reply which you provoked. If you don't like it, don't post. You can make all the cases you want about seeding and it won't matter in the end. And I think that's what you're upset about.

 

[EastBayDad]

I too see Pitt beating Antioch. Antioch is talented and has Harris, but don't we all have the feeling Pitt just owns them? I could be totally wrong but I just see Pitt slowing Harris down and putting up 40 on Antioch. Harris will have a couple highlights but even if Pitt holds him to 2-3 TDs, the rest of that team isn't going to out score Pitts O which has looked pretty good this season

 

[Trivalley]

I'll go with Dublin over SL but it really doesn't matter. Dublin will play either Freedom or Amador. If there is a seed that can pull an upset it will be Dublin. Dublin plays really good defense and can work the clock with the run. DV, SL, Irvington will all lose. 8/9 game is a toss up. .

 

[Trivalley]

Campo is flying high and will win NCS easier than people think.

 

[TMJA]

I tried this a few weeks ago, but now that the seedings are a week away, I thought I'd take another stab at it.

D-I

1 - DLS
2 - Foothill
3 - Pittsburg
4 - Antioch
5 - Monte Vista
6 - Freedom
7 - Amador Valley
8 - California
9 - Logan
10 - San Leandro
11 - Dublin
12 - Dougherty Valley
13 - Irvington

Teams that would qualify with a win this weekend = Liberty (Freedom), San Ramon Valley (Monte Vista), College Park (Clayton Valley). I don't think any of that happens

So yes, I'm still predicting a Pirates win over Antioch this weekend, which sets up the top 4 seeds. If Antioch wins, I think they'll get the 2 seed over Foothill, but wouldn't bet my life on it. I don't know how they'll settle the 5-8 seeds for sure (MV beat Amador Valley, who beat Cal, who beat MV), but I gave the top of these to MV for their win over Pittsburg, then Freedom for their tough schedule, then went AV > Cal based on head-to-head. Logan beat San Leandro, but since that's their best win, I have them 9 & 10. Dublin beat Dougherty Valley, and Irvington barely qualified by beating 5 really bad teams.

With a win over Tennyson this weekend, San Leandro would win their league and get a home playoff game at Burrell, which could be interesting for a game against the 7 seed (I list Amador Valley). I wouldn't be shocked to see San Leandro win a game. And in the end, DLS will likely run the table.

D-II

1 - Clayton Valley
2 - Miramonte
3 - Concord
4 - Tennyson
5 - American
6 - Granada
7 - Pinole Valley
8 - Casa Grande (who has to beat Montgomery this weekend to qualify)
9 - Windsor
10 - Carrillo
11 - Livermore
12 - Alameda
13 - Northgate
14 - Redwood
15 - Hayward
16 - Washington

Mt. Eden will likely qualify by beating San Lorenzo, but I think they end up being the odd team out. Washington's win over American is better than anybody Mt. Eden beat by far. I don't see anybody preventing a Clayton Valley/Miramonte final.

D-III

1 - Campolindo
2 - Analy
3 - Rancho Cotate
4 - Alhambra
5 - Petaluma
6 - De Anza
7 - Bishop O'Dowd
8 - El Cerrito
9 - Eureka
10 - Acalanes
11 - Kennedy
12 - Novato (need to beat San Rafael this weekend)
13 - Terra Linda
14 - Piner
15 - Ygnacio Valley
16 - Sonoma Valley (have to beat Allen this weekend)

Pee yew! Less than half of these teams will be over .500 going into the playoffs. Somebody called this "the most interesting division" earlier this week? Different strokes, I guess. I have Petaluma and De Anza higher than they probably should be based on winning records over really weak schedules, and I wouldn't be shocked if, say, a Kennedy managed to win in the first round. It sets up an Analy/Rancho semifinal for the right to take on Campo.

D-IV

1 - Cardinal Newman
2 - Marin Catholic
3 - Fortuna
4 - Moreau Catholic
5 - Fort Bragg
6 - Piedmont
7 - Justin-Siena
8 - St. Mary's
9 - St. Helena
10 - San Marin
11 - Hercules
12 - Harker
13 - Del Norte
14 - Encinal
15 - Lower Lake
16 - Healdsburg

Now THIS is the most interesting division in NCS. OK, D-I would have been if it weren't for the fact that DLS is going to win it. I could easily see the committee making Fortuna the 1 seed - they're undefeated and the teams they've beaten stack up against MC and CN's best wins. Plus, I could see the committee not liking what their move back to D-IV did both to the D-III bracket and this one, and what better way to let them know than forcing them to play in a semifinal instead of the final? I went with CN over MC because I think their strength of schedule is higher. I went with Moreau at 4 over Fort Bragg in part because I'm not sure they'll give the Redwood Empire the top 4 seeds. Similarly, I think Piedmont's wins are better than St. Mary's wins, and with their head-to-head over Justin-Siena it set up 6-8. I won't be stunned if St. Helena moves up into a top 8 seed at 9-1. I don't see anybody after 9 really making any noise. I think the CN/MC winner is the favorite, but don't sleep on Fortuna!

We'll see how good or bad these are when the seedings come on next Sunday...

D1
I think Antioch will be the 2nd seed with a win over Pitt. Everyone playing for second.
D2
Continues to be the weakest division of the top 3,now maybe the top 4 minus CV. Looks about right. Bottom half of bracket will be decided by final weeks wins and losses. CV vs Mirramonte rematch finals will be a good one. Would not be surprised to see CV go down again.
D3
Campo's division to lose. The rest of the pack looks to be very down. O'Dowd should be top 4 or 5, they played Wood and others tough. Analy can surprise but not likely vs Campo.
D4
Will probably be MC, CN, then Moreau. Be serious, Fortuna will probably be behind Piedmont & Justin Sienna. Fortuna plays some low rates teams two times. Piedmont almost beat Mac & Justin beat the top SoCal D4 team at the time. St. Mary's likely the 4th seed.

 

[beatenpath2]

D1: I also believe that Antioch will prevail this week over Pitt and will grasp the 2 seed. Harris really is that good in my opinion. Otherwise, despite great matchups D1 is a little lacking always for me because it feels pointless to play, but maybe thats just me.
D2: CV all the way. The only team standing in there way is Miramonte and I saw them get manhandled by Campo on Friday night. Supposedly there best receiver is out for the rest of the season and that put a big hurting on their pass game this past week. Clayton will roll their way to a section final.
D3: As forementioned, Campos to lose. Not sure if the games will be all that interesting, but I will love to see how seeding comes about in D3 this year. I believe they will put Analy at 2 despite their weak schedule because they will be undefeated. Rancho easily the 3, and Alhambra at 4 is a little shaky for me. Im aware that the committee puts a HUGE emphasis on head to head, and they lost to Acalanes. So can they justify giving Acalanes a higher seed and bumping Alhambra far down? Where will BOD or EC be seeded compared to a weak scheduled Petaluma. I think it will be interesting come this Sunday.
D4: I can see where you want to make an argument for Fortuna, but I think they give the 1 seed to CN and I have Marin winning in the final. MC has simply got better every week, and I am not doubting the CN QB, but MC has a ferocious defense and will be hard to score on.

 

[bella123]

"Plus, I could see the committee not liking what their move back to D-IV did both to the D-III bracket and this one, and what better way to let them know than forcing them to play in a semifinal instead of the final?"

Not sure this makes sense? The committee is put together by the NCS. The NCS is the one who sets the divisions. Therefore the committee should only be mad at the NCS (itself) for setting the divisions as they did.

 

[noknight]

Haha. I don't think CN/MC needed defending for playing up. Why don't you defend your statements above by answering the questions in my post instead of being overly sensitive to a reply which you provoked. If you don't like it, don't post. You can make all the cases you want about seeding and it won't matter in the end. And I think that's what you're upset about.

Um, I predicted CN/MC as the top 2 seeds, and don't feel as though I have anything to defend. Methinks you dost protest too much.

 

[remc]

I tried this a few weeks ago, but now that the seedings are a week away, I thought I'd take another stab at it.

D-I

1 - DLS
2 - Foothill
3 - Pittsburg
4 - Antioch
5 - Monte Vista
6 - Freedom
7 - Amador Valley
8 - California
9 - Logan
10 - San Leandro
11 - Dublin
12 - Dougherty Valley
13 - Irvington

Teams that would qualify with a win this weekend = Liberty (Freedom), San Ramon Valley (Monte Vista), College Park (Clayton Valley). I don't think any of that happens

So yes, I'm still predicting a Pirates win over Antioch this weekend, which sets up the top 4 seeds. If Antioch wins, I think they'll get the 2 seed over Foothill, but wouldn't bet my life on it. I don't know how they'll settle the 5-8 seeds for sure (MV beat Amador Valley, who beat Cal, who beat MV), but I gave the top of these to MV for their win over Pittsburg, then Freedom for their tough schedule, then went AV > Cal based on head-to-head. Logan beat San Leandro, but since that's their best win, I have them 9 & 10. Dublin beat Dougherty Valley, and Irvington barely qualified by beating 5 really bad teams.

With a win over Tennyson this weekend, San Leandro would win their league and get a home playoff game at Burrell, which could be interesting for a game against the 7 seed (I list Amador Valley). I wouldn't be shocked to see San Leandro win a game. And in the end, DLS will likely run the table.

D-II

1 - Clayton Valley
2 - Miramonte
3 - Concord
4 - Tennyson
5 - American
6 - Granada
7 - Pinole Valley
8 - Casa Grande (who has to beat Montgomery this weekend to qualify)
9 - Windsor
10 - Carrillo
11 - Livermore
12 - Alameda
13 - Northgate
14 - Redwood
15 - Hayward
16 - Washington

Mt. Eden will likely qualify by beating San Lorenzo, but I think they end up being the odd team out. Washington's win over American is better than anybody Mt. Eden beat by far. I don't see anybody preventing a Clayton Valley/Miramonte final.

D-III

1 - Campolindo
2 - Analy
3 - Rancho Cotate
4 - Alhambra
5 - Petaluma
6 - De Anza
7 - Bishop O'Dowd
8 - El Cerrito
9 - Eureka
10 - Acalanes
11 - Kennedy
12 - Novato (need to beat San Rafael this weekend)
13 - Terra Linda
14 - Piner
15 - Ygnacio Valley
16 - Sonoma Valley (have to beat Allen this weekend)

Pee yew! Less than half of these teams will be over .500 going into the playoffs. Somebody called this "the most interesting division" earlier this week? Different strokes, I guess. I have Petaluma and De Anza higher than they probably should be based on winning records over really weak schedules, and I wouldn't be shocked if, say, a Kennedy managed to win in the first round. It sets up an Analy/Rancho semifinal for the right to take on Campo.

D-IV

1 - Cardinal Newman
2 - Marin Catholic
3 - Fortuna
4 - Moreau Catholic
5 - Fort Bragg
6 - Piedmont
7 - Justin-Siena
8 - St. Mary's
9 - St. Helena
10 - San Marin
11 - Hercules
12 - Harker
13 - Del Norte
14 - Encinal
15 - Lower Lake
16 - Healdsburg

Now THIS is the most interesting division in NCS. OK, D-I would have been if it weren't for the fact that DLS is going to win it. I could easily see the committee making Fortuna the 1 seed - they're undefeated and the teams they've beaten stack up against MC and CN's best wins. Plus, I could see the committee not liking what their move back to D-IV did both to the D-III bracket and this one, and what better way to let them know than forcing them to play in a semifinal instead of the final? I went with CN over MC because I think their strength of schedule is higher. I went with Moreau at 4 over Fort Bragg in part because I'm not sure they'll give the Redwood Empire the top 4 seeds. Similarly, I think Piedmont's wins are better than St. Mary's wins, and with their head-to-head over Justin-Siena it set up 6-8. I won't be stunned if St. Helena moves up into a top 8 seed at 9-1. I don't see anybody after 9 really making any noise. I think the CN/MC winner is the favorite, but don't sleep on Fortuna!

We'll see how good or bad these are when the seedings come on next Sunday...

St. Mary's 8th.? You've got an obvious bias for the northern schools, particularly Fortunate, but we'll see how it shakes out

 

[noknight]

St. Mary's 8th.? You've got an obvious bias for the northern schools, particularly Fortunate, but we'll see how it shakes out

As an Alameda County resident, I assure you that's not the case. I've just watched way too many times when the committee ended up giving the benefit of the doubt to the Redwood Empire teams over teams from the East Bay. Last year, for example, 4-6 Montgomery gets the higher seed and thus the home game over 7-2-1 Mt. Eden. Undefeated Kennedy gets a 10 seed. 4-6 McKinleyville gets a home game. It's happened enough times that I'm just predicting what's likely to happen.

Plus, as I've said before, St. Mary's hasn't got a win that you can point to that really moves the needle. 6-3 Hercules, 5-4 Pinole Valley, 4-5 BOD, 4-5 El Cerrito, 2-7 SPSV, 0-9 Bethel and (presumably) 4-5 Salesian.

I'll go with Dublin over SL but it really doesn't matter. Dublin will play either Freedom or Amador. If there is a seed that can pull an upset it will be Dublin. Dublin plays really good defense and can work the clock with the run. DV, SL, Irvington will all lose. 8/9 game is a toss up. .

I went with SL because they've played a MUCH tougher schedule than Dublin. The win over Liberty is better than anybody Dublin's played other than Campo (who, admittedly, Dublin played tough). But a case can sure be made.

As for the whole CN/MC D-III/D-IV thing, surely there's no surprise that there's some resentment from both the D-III teams ("what - we were good enough for you before but not now?") and the D-IV teams (who are probably just pissed that what looked like a clearer path is suddenly muddled) that both teams moved down, especially after all the shade that was thrown at Salesian for refusing to play up in previous years. CN/MC has every right to play in their proper division, and in fact their coaches and administration owe it to their players and students to put their teams into a position that gives them the greatest chance to succeed. That said, they shouldn't be surprised at the resentment it's creating, and let it be known that what I think (which is that they're doing what's best for their kids) won't have any impact on what happens. I just think that that resentment has a real chance of manifesting itself on Sunday.

 

[winetot]

Division IV should be Cardinal Newman and Marin Catholic, 1 and 2 and it is silly to argue otherwise in my opinion. I can see Fortuna getting the 3 because of Moreau's loss.
Here is what I think in DIV.

1. Cardinal Newman
2. Marin Catholic
3. Fortuna
4. Moreau Catholic
5. Piedmont
6. Justin-Siena
7. St. Mary's
8. Fort Bragg

I would say Fortuna and Moreau will be the underdog at home in the quarter finals. St. Mary's could bump as high as 5 over both Piedmont and Justin-Siena.

 

[remc]

I tried this a few weeks ago, but now that the seedings are a week away, I thought I'd take another stab at it.

D-I

1 - DLS
2 - Foothill
3 - Pittsburg
4 - Antioch
5 - Monte Vista
6 - Freedom
7 - Amador Valley
8 - California
9 - Logan
10 - San Leandro
11 - Dublin
12 - Dougherty Valley
13 - Irvington

Teams that would qualify with a win this weekend = Liberty (Freedom), San Ramon Valley (Monte Vista), College Park (Clayton Valley). I don't think any of that happens

So yes, I'm still predicting a Pirates win over Antioch this weekend, which sets up the top 4 seeds. If Antioch wins, I think they'll get the 2 seed over Foothill, but wouldn't bet my life on it. I don't know how they'll settle the 5-8 seeds for sure (MV beat Amador Valley, who beat Cal, who beat MV), but I gave the top of these to MV for their win over Pittsburg, then Freedom for their tough schedule, then went AV > Cal based on head-to-head. Logan beat San Leandro, but since that's their best win, I have them 9 & 10. Dublin beat Dougherty Valley, and Irvington barely qualified by beating 5 really bad teams.

With a win over Tennyson this weekend, San Leandro would win their league and get a home playoff game at Burrell, which could be interesting for a game against the 7 seed (I list Amador Valley). I wouldn't be shocked to see San Leandro win a game. And in the end, DLS will likely run the table.

D-II

1 - Clayton Valley
2 - Miramonte
3 - Concord
4 - Tennyson
5 - American
6 - Granada
7 - Pinole Valley
8 - Casa Grande (who has to beat Montgomery this weekend to qualify)
9 - Windsor
10 - Carrillo
11 - Livermore
12 - Alameda
13 - Northgate
14 - Redwood
15 - Hayward
16 - Washington

Mt. Eden will likely qualify by beating San Lorenzo, but I think they end up being the odd team out. Washington's win over American is better than anybody Mt. Eden beat by far. I don't see anybody preventing a Clayton Valley/Miramonte final.

D-III

1 - Campolindo
2 - Analy
3 - Rancho Cotate
4 - Alhambra
5 - Petaluma
6 - De Anza
7 - Bishop O'Dowd
8 - El Cerrito
9 - Eureka
10 - Acalanes
11 - Kennedy
12 - Novato (need to beat San Rafael this weekend)
13 - Terra Linda
14 - Piner
15 - Ygnacio Valley
16 - Sonoma Valley (have to beat Allen this weekend)

Pee yew! Less than half of these teams will be over .500 going into the playoffs. Somebody called this "the most interesting division" earlier this week? Different strokes, I guess. I have Petaluma and De Anza higher than they probably should be based on winning records over really weak schedules, and I wouldn't be shocked if, say, a Kennedy managed to win in the first round. It sets up an Analy/Rancho semifinal for the right to take on Campo.

D-IV

1 - Cardinal Newman
2 - Marin Catholic
3 - Fortuna
4 - Moreau Catholic
5 - Fort Bragg
6 - Piedmont
7 - Justin-Siena
8 - St. Mary's
9 - St. Helena
10 - San Marin
11 - Hercules
12 - Harker
13 - Del Norte
14 - Encinal
15 - Lower Lake
16 - Healdsburg

Now THIS is the most interesting division in NCS. OK, D-I would have been if it weren't for the fact that DLS is going to win it. I could easily see the committee making Fortuna the 1 seed - they're undefeated and the teams they've beaten stack up against MC and CN's best wins. Plus, I could see the committee not liking what their move back to D-IV did both to the D-III bracket and this one, and what better way to let them know than forcing them to play in a semifinal instead of the final? I went with CN over MC because I think their strength of schedule is higher. I went with Moreau at 4 over Fort Bragg in part because I'm not sure they'll give the Redwood Empire the top 4 seeds. Similarly, I think Piedmont's wins are better than St. Mary's wins, and with their head-to-head over Justin-Siena it set up 6-8. I won't be stunned if St. Helena moves up into a top 8 seed at 9-1. I don't see anybody after 9 really making any noise. I think the CN/MC winner is the favorite, but don't sleep on Fortuna!

We'll see how good or bad these are when the seedings come on next Sunday...

St. Mary's non conference schedule is probably the top 1,2 in D4. Those 3 losses are from teams with a combined 21-2 record before this past weekend. Moreau, Miramonte who you have as the 2 seed in D2 and Archbishop Riordan of the CCS and WCAL, one of the top teams in a league that along with the SFL is the top big school league in Nor Cal

 

[NorCalScout]

Way to early on the D1, Cal High beat MV and should get a higher seed regardless of their upcoming loss to DLS. I was at Antioch vs. Deer Valley game on Friday and will also be at their game against Pitt this Friday but regardless if they win, I don't see them getting the #2 seed.

 

[HSfan82]

Haha. I don't think CN/MC needed defending for playing up. Why don't you defend your statements above by answering the questions in my post instead of being overly sensitive to a reply which you provoked. If you don't like it, don't post. You can make all the cases you want about seeding and it won't matter in the end. And I think that's what you're upset about.

The problem with CN and MC move to D4 was timing. We were 4 weeks into seasons when they announced. I have no problem with them being in their proper division but declare BEFORE season, not after you sit back and evaluate who would I rather play Moreau and Fortuna or Campo and Analy. For that reason I hope they are 2 and 3. Moreau scheduled top D4 teams St Marys and Piedmont I assume to show their D4 power. Piedmont scheduled Justin Sienna, maybe somebody would have scheduled CN and MC had they known. Too bad Moreau lost to American because 2 10-0 teams would be tough to deny top seed. D4 will be tougher than most think for MC or CN. St Marys beat 2 top 8 D3 teams in BOD and EC, this Division brings most excitement, D1 obvious winner, D2 CVC vs MIramonte final, D3 Campo head and shoulders above field, D4 just not ready to give it to MC and CN on silver platter

 

[noknight]

St. Mary's non conference schedule is probably the top 1,2 in D4. Those 3 losses are from teams with a combined 21-2 record before this past weekend. Moreau, Miramonte who you have as the 2 seed in D2 and Archbishop Riordan of the CCS and WCAL, one of the top teams in a league that along with the SFL is the top big school league in Nor Cal

Agreed that those are good games. They lost all 3 by an average of almost 24 points. If they'd won one of those games, I'd have them seeded high. Otherwise, that would be like saying Logan should be seeded higher because they lost to De La Salle and Clayton Valley.

 

[noknight]

Way to early on the D1, Cal High beat MV and should get a higher seed regardless of their upcoming loss to DLS. I was at Antioch vs. Deer Valley game on Friday and will also be at their game against Pitt this Friday but regardless if they win, I don't see them getting the #2 seed.

I hear you on head-to-head, but one of MV, Cal or Amador is going to be seeded below a team they beat, since they all went 1-1 in games between them. I picked MV based on the best nonleague win.

 

[HAS]

I hear you on head-to-head, but one of MV, Cal or Amador is going to be seeded below a team they beat, since they all went 1-1 in games between them. I picked MV based on the best nonleague win.

Going to be interesting, in selection committee I'm sure the refs blotch in the Cal-AV game will come up but I agree that MV if they beat SR will stay ahead of Cal and Amador.

 

[NorCalScout]

I hear you on head-to-head, but one of MV, Cal or Amador is going to be seeded below a team they beat, since they all went 1-1 in games between them. I picked MV based on the best nonleague win.

I agree, the win against Pitt might be kicker.

 

[northbaybbguru]

The problem with CN and MC move to D4 was timing. We were 4 weeks into seasons when they announced. I have no problem with them being in their proper division but declare BEFORE season, not after you sit back and evaluate who would I rather play Moreau and Fortuna or Campo and Analy. For that reason I hope they are 2 and 3. Moreau scheduled top D4 teams St Marys and Piedmont I assume to show their D4 power. Piedmont scheduled Justin Sienna, maybe somebody would have scheduled CN and MC had they known. Too bad Moreau lost to American because 2 10-0 teams would be tough to deny top seed. D4 will be tougher than most think for MC or CN. St Marys beat 2 top 8 D3 teams in BOD and EC, this Division brings most excitement, D1 obvious winner, D2 CVC vs MIramonte final, D3 Campo head and shoulders above field, D4 just not ready to give it to MC and CN on silver platter

For the record...I was at the MC/CN scrimmage in august (before the season) and asked BOTH coaches what division they were playing in. BOTH told me D4. And I stated such on a different thread on this same message board that following week.

 

[observer22]

Gotta play it out though. Cal is done with their EBAL games, with just a date with DLS this week remaining which should not affect their seeding since only 2 other NCS teams even had the nads to schedule them. The Grizz ended up at 4-2 in EBAL play with just the loss to Foothill and the strange ending loss at AV.

MV has to play at their arch rival SRV this week, and anything can and often does happen in this game. SRV has had a very tough season and a win here would qualify them for the playoffs. Although I think MV will pull it out, this is anything but a given.

Foothill must also play their arch rival AV in a game that will decide first place in the EBAL. If AV wins then they'll end up tied for 1st place but will have beaten Foothill head to head and should be the top EBAL team in the seedings, ahead of both Foothil and MV.

If either MV loses to SRV or AV beats Foothill then Cal should be seeded ahead of MV for NCS as they will have finished ahead of them in league. A 3 way tie for 2nd with AV, MV & Cal and I agree that MV gets the higher seed on the basis of their Pitt win.

The first order of business should be to line up the order of the teams in the EBAL and BVAL amongst themselves based on how they did against each other in their head to head games. Once those are in order, you can start fitting those leagues together along with the other teams based on how they did and strength of schedule (wins), with DLS obviously at the top of any list.

If Pitt loses to Antioch and comes in 2nd in the BVAL and MV beats SRV and Foothill beats AV, then I would give MV the higher seed over Pitt as both would be 2nd place teams and they beat Pitt head to head. If MV wins, but AV beats Foothill, then Cal would be the #3 EBAL team with MV 4th and then I think Pitt should be seeded higher than MV.

Some great NCS games this week, with the Pitt-Antioch game at the top of the list, followed by AV-Foothill and the MV-SRV game is always entertaining. Should be fun.

 

[Coolio12345]

D1 - DLS - good game against Bosco/Centennial
D2 - Clayton -lose in regional final

D3 - Campo - lose in State

 

[remc]

Agreed that those are good games. They lost all 3 by an average of almost 24 points. If they'd won one of those games, I'd have them seeded high. Otherwise, that would be like saying Logan should be seeded higher because they lost to De La Salle and Clayton Valley.

Well Logan and DLS are both D1 and CVC is D2.d4 SMB playedOpen CCS contender Riordan and D2 Miramonte. There isn't a team in D4 that would beat Riordan this year,and that includes MC and CN. Unfair to say SMB has no signature wins with that schedule. Moreau is having an outstanding year. But you'll see what I'm talking bout once the playoffs start.You made mention of Pinole,Hercules, El Cerritos and ODowds records but you should see who they lost to before dismissing them. For example O'Dowd lost to Will C Wood 49-45 but Wood is a damn good SJS team. 2-7 El Cerrito list to Sutter 27-20 and Sutter is a Northern power that you credited Fortunate with a signature win over. If EC was so bad they shouldn't have come within 7 points of Sutter. Need to look a little more in depth, pay closer attention to strength of schedule

 

[MC415]

This year's Sutter team is completely down at 5-4 not even close to a Northern Power this year so a close loss to them doesn't mean much this year. BOD has a nice loss to Wood but cmon they lost to Tennyson a team BOD is way more talented then, Hercules hasn't beat a team with a pulse there strongest win is Tamalpais??? Gimme a break

 

[MC415]

Fortuna beat Orland not Sutter btw and Orland is 8-1

 

[remc]

This year's Sutter team is completely down at 5-4 not even close to a Northern Power this year so a close loss to them doesn't mean much this year. BOD has a nice loss to Wood but cmon they lost to Tennyson a team BOD is way more talented then, Hercules hasn't beat a team with a pulse there strongest win is Tamalpais??? Gimme a break

Ec also has a 37-34 loss to Inderkum of Sacto,a team with a pulse.EC is a dangerous team,better than their record.Point us teams like EC and BBEWare probably better than their records indicate and simply dismissing them because of their records. Who else has Firtuna played?Who else has Orlando played?

 

[HSfan82]

For the record...I was at the MC/CN scrimmage in august (before the season) and asked BOTH coaches what division they were playing in. BOTH told me D4. And I stated such on a different thread on this same message board that following week.

Thats great that they told YOU, but they didnt declare officially until September 20. If they watched their teams scrimmage then decided, still not fair to others who scheduled D4 teams accordingly.

 

[MC415]

Ec also has a 37-34 loss to Inderkum of Sacto,a team with a pulse.EC is a dangerous team,better than their record.Point us teams like EC and BBEWare probably better than their records indicate and simply dismissing them because of their records. Who else has Firtuna played?Who else has Orlando played?

Why r u talking to me like I'm a Fortuna apologist? I don't think they are a top 4 seed to be honest, I was just correcting you that they bear Orland and not Sutter.

 

[noknight]

Thats great that they told YOU, but they didnt declare officially until September 20. If they watched their teams scrimmage then decided, still not fair to others who scheduled D4 teams accordingly.

To be fair, any blame for this falls on the NCS, who set the deadline for doing this as September 18:

http://www.cifncs.org/alignment_&_classification/files/Petitioning/2015-2016/Fall Petitions.pdf

Both MC and CN did exactly what they were required to do. Can't fault them at all for that.

 

[noknight]

Ec also has a 37-34 loss to Inderkum of Sacto,a team with a pulse.EC is a dangerous team,better than their record.Point us teams like EC and BBEWare probably better than their records indicate and simply dismissing them because of their records. Who else has Firtuna played?Who else has Orlando played?

Again, it's all well and good that teams played "tough" opponents close. But the only way the whole "strength of schedule" argument helps is if you win some of those games.

I presume you have no argument with MC, CN or Moreau (head-to-head) being seeded higher than St. Mary's, right? Your argument against Fortuna being ranked up there is that they "haven't played anbody." Well, beating Orland isn't anything to sneeze at. Orland is arguably a better win than anybody St. Mary's beaten. They did beat that same Sutter team you were trumping up as a good loss for El Cerrito. The same can be said for Piedmont's win over Justin-Siena. Maybe you can quibble about my having St. Mary's behind Justin-Siena (whose only losses are to Piedmont and MC) and Ft. Bragg (who's undefeated, but haven't beaten anybody with a pulse). I suspect they'll get the benefit of the doubt because the committee always seems to give the benefit of the doubt to untested teams from the north more than from the south (see undefeated Kennedy getting a 10 seed last year). If that moves St. Mary's up to 6, would you feel less disrespected? Again, these were my predictions based on what I've seen from the committee in the past, and I'm sure I'll be wrong on some of them. In the end, I suspect it's all just minor details for what feels like the inevitable CN/MC final.

 

[HSfan82]

To be fair, any blame for this falls on the NCS, who set the deadline for doing this as September 18:

http://www.cifncs.org/alignment_&_classification/files/Petitioning/2015-2016/Fall Petitions.pdf

Both MC and CN did exactly what they were required to do. Can't fault them at all for that.

I agree NCS timetable is ridiculous and at fault. However if they knew they were going to do it then why file on Sept 18? They knew in the summer if not before they were going D4. My seeding predictions
DIV
1. Marin Catholic
2. Moreau
3. Cardinal Newman
4. Piedmont
5. Fortuna
6. Justin Sienna
7. St. Marys
8. Fort Bragg

Bottom 8 dont matter cuz top seeds all move on to 2nd round

DIII
1 - Clayton Valley
2 - Miramonte
3 - Concord
4 - Tennyson
5 - American
6 - Granada
7 - Pinole Valley
8 - Windsor
9 - Alameda
10 - Carrillo
11 - Livermore
12 - Northgate
13 - Washington
14 - Hayward
15 - Redwood

Tennyson v Washingotn, American v Northgate, Windsor v Alameda ....all toss up games


D-III

1 - Campolindo
2 - Analy
3 - Rancho Cotate
4 - Petaluma (need win or strong showing vs Analy or could drop to 5)
5 - Alhambra
6 - De Anza
7 - El Cerrito
8 - Bishop O'Dowd
9 - Eureka
10 - Piner
11 - Acalanes
12 - Kennedy(Fremont)
14 - Novato
15 - Ygnacio Valley

De Anza v Acalanes could be upset for Acalanes and BOD/Eureka toss up

D1

De La Salle

 

[NorthBayFan2004]

How much does the committee rely on strength of schedule compared to total wins. What about wins in division? Seems that there could be teams that are 3-7 and get a higher seed the. Say a 6-4 team. Also I read that if you are not .500 either overall, in league or Indivision you are not eligible to make playoffs. Seems that Ygnacio will not be eligible as they are going to fall to 3-7, 1-3 and 1-2 (they lost to Mission San Francisco who enrollment wise is a d3 team).

 

[beatenpath2]

Im not sure Mission Sf is counted as a D3 team. And if Acalanes or BoD pulled either of those teams they would most likely blow them both out. No faith in De Anza or a Eureka team.

 

[MC415]

Remc not sure what you were reading but I clearly said Hercules hasn't beaten a team with a pulse, then u countered with close losses by El Cerrito???

I agree NCS timetable is ridiculous and at fault. However if they knew they were going to do it then why file on Sept 18? They knew in the summer if not before they were going D4. My seeding predictions
DIV
1. Marin Catholic
2. Moreau
3. Cardinal Newman
4. Piedmont
5. Fortuna
6. Justin Sienna
7. St. Marys
8. Fort Bragg

Bottom 8 dont matter cuz top seeds all move on to 2nd round

DIII
1 - Clayton Valley
2 - Miramonte
3 - Concord
4 - Tennyson
5 - American
6 - Granada
7 - Pinole Valley
8 - Windsor
9 - Alameda
10 - Carrillo
11 - Livermore
12 - Northgate
13 - Washington
14 - Hayward
15 - Redwood

Tennyson v Washingotn, American v Northgate, Windsor v Alameda ....all toss up games


D-III

1 - Campolindo
2 - Analy
3 - Rancho Cotate
4 - Petaluma (need win or strong showing vs Analy or could drop to 5)
5 - Alhambra
6 - De Anza
7 - El Cerrito
8 - Bishop O'Dowd
9 - Eureka
10 - Piner
11 - Acalanes
12 - Kennedy(Fremont)
14 - Novato
15 - Ygnacio Valley

De Anza v Acalanes could be upset for Acalanes and BOD/Eureka toss up

D1

De La Salle

In terms of D4 I definitely think San Marin or St Helena could pull off an upset in the first round especially if San Marin gets matched with Ft Bragg, SM has a really QB and explosive WR combo their WR is #2 in the state with like 22 TD receptions

 

[northbaybbguru]

I agree NCS timetable is ridiculous and at fault. However if they knew they were going to do it then why file on Sept 18? They knew in the summer if not before they were going D4. My seeding predictions
DIV
1. Marin Catholic
2. Moreau
3. Cardinal Newman
4. Piedmont
5. Fortuna
6. Justin Sienna
7. St. Marys
8. Fort Bragg

Bottom 8 dont matter cuz top seeds all move on to 2nd round

DIII
1 - Clayton Valley
2 - Miramonte
3 - Concord
4 - Tennyson
5 - American
6 - Granada
7 - Pinole Valley
8 - Windsor
9 - Alameda
10 - Carrillo
11 - Livermore
12 - Northgate
13 - Washington
14 - Hayward
15 - Redwood

Tennyson v Washingotn, American v Northgate, Windsor v Alameda ....all toss up games


D-III

1 - Campolindo
2 - Analy
3 - Rancho Cotate
4 - Petaluma (need win or strong showing vs Analy or could drop to 5)
5 - Alhambra
6 - De Anza
7 - El Cerrito
8 - Bishop O'Dowd
9 - Eureka
10 - Piner
11 - Acalanes
12 - Kennedy(Fremont)
14 - Novato
15 - Ygnacio Valley

De Anza v Acalanes could be upset for Acalanes and BOD/Eureka toss up

D1

De La Salle

HS....

I like your D4 seedings, except I would switch CN(2) and Moreau(3)....but I think you are going to be pretty darn close on your top 8.

 

[HSfan82]

How much does the committee rely on strength of schedule compared to total wins. What about wins in division? Seems that there could be teams that are 3-7 and get a higher seed the. Say a 6-4 team. Also I read that if you are not .500 either overall, in league or Indivision you are not eligible to make playoffs. Seems that Ygnacio will not be eligible as they are going to fall to 3-7, 1-3 and 1-2 (they lost to Mission San Francisco who enrollment wise is a d3 team).

I think strength is a big factor. My understanding is you have to have a winning record vs teams in your division OR in your league OR overall. So a 3-7 team that is 1-0 in their division qualifies. IMO kinda weak process, you should have to be over .500 to qualify---period. To me 4-6 and even 5-5 is not a playoff team. Its all too watered down. They need to eliminate first round of uneven games, especially with all the injury concerns. There is no reason to play Campo vs Sonoma Valley or Marin Catholic vs Healdsburg. Waste of time!!!

 

[remc]

WasnUOTE="MC415, post: 63227, member: 530"]Remc not sure what you were reading but I clearly said Hercules hasn't beaten a team with a pulse, then u countered with close losses by El Cerrito???


In terms of D4 I definitely think San Marin or St Helena could pull off an upset in the first round especially if San Marin gets matched with Ft Bragg, SM has a really QB and explosive WR combo their WR is #2 in the state with like 22 TD receptions[/QUOTE]
Was just pointing out that records of some teams were misleading,it relates to a prior post

 

[bella123]

Thats great that they told YOU, but they didnt declare officially until September 20. If they watched their teams scrimmage then decided, still not fair to others who scheduled D4 teams accordingly.

Eureka pulled the same thing....oh the outrage.