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NorCal Region using Calpreps Modified Rating System

FBAddict

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Calpreps Modifies Rating System

Ned Freeman modified his rating system this year and all previous years (2003-2016) to blend seasons and states into one relative database. This means a team rating for one year is relative to another year. Additionally, it means a rating from one state is more relatively comparable to another state. Now it more likely the score between sections will have a stronger comparative strength.

It has produced some predictable and interesting results.

For fun here is the top 10 list for California:
1. 2013 St. John Bosco 87
2. 2016 St. John Bosco 84.8
3. 2015 De La Salle 83.8
4. 2016 Mater Dei 83.7
5. 2004 Mission Viejo 83.4
6. 2015 Centennial 82.9
7. 2014 De La Salle 82.2
8. 2003 Westlake 81.8
9. 2015 St. John Bosco 81.5
10. 2014 Folsom 80.2

SoCal=7 NorCal=3
SJB=3
DLS=2
All others=1
 
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Gotta give him some credit for fixing a product which has had plenty of credibility issues. Seems like an honest step in the right direction.
 
Assuming Ned 's goals are what you state..
He needs to go back to the drawing board.. 2016 Mater Dei. ? Lol
 
Northern Section
Under the new Calpreps rating system, fans can now get a better multi-season comparison their favorite team, league, section and state. The Calpreps interface compiles all states' top 1000 season/teams so one can see the top teams from 2003 to 2016 in one top 1000 list. I decided to post a section comparison from that database for consideration of NorCal sections. Bear in mind that the top 1000 list for California is from a total California database of 14 seasons with more than 1000 teams per season or more than 14,000 season/teams. The number is probably closer to 14,700 season/teams.

The Northern section had 24 season/teams listed in the top 1000. The Northern Section is the smallest section in the state of California aside from the Oakland and San Francisco leagues-sections. It stands to reason statistically that the NS section would have a smaller number of season/teams in the top 1000.

The Eastern League has 16 of those 24 teams or 66.7% of the total NS season/teams. This is probably not surprise to Northern Section Fans. For sake of simplicity, I am using the 2017 league alignment for this comparison. Over the last 14 seasons, league alignments have varied.

Paradise tops the Northern Section list with 6 season/teams. There is a tie for second place on the list consisting of Enterprise (4), Pleasant Valley (4) and Sutter (4). I broke the tie using the accumulated total ratings for each team as follows:
Enterprise (205.8)
Pleasant Valley (184.5)
Sutter (179.5)

Here is the total NS list of season/teams within the top 1000.
160. 2009 Enterprise 60
176. 2007 Foothill 59.1
195. 2006 Paradise 58.2
195. 2009 Paradise 57.3
289. 2008 Paradise 55.2
302. 2006 Foothill 54.9
425. 2013 Enterprise 51.7
481. 2014 Enterprise 50.2
529. 2005 Central Valley (Shasta Lake) 49.5
572. 2011 Paradise 48.8
593. 2007 Pleasant Valley 48.5
596. 2010 Paradise 48.4
602. 2009 Pleasant Valley 48.2
659. 2005 Paradise 47.2
706. 2007 Sutter 46.6
736. 2013 West Valley (Cottonwood) 46.2
829. 2004 Sutter 45.1
845. 2004 West Valley (Cottonwood) 44.9
871. 2009 Shasta (Redding) 44.6
918. 2015 Pleasant Valley 44.1
928. 2014 Sutter 44
934. 2012 Enterprise 43.9
945. 2008 Sutter 43.8
953. 2006 Pleasant Valley 43.7
 
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Central Coast Section
Under the new Calpreps rating system, fans can now get a better multi-season comparison their favorite team, league, section and state. The Calpreps interface compiles all states top 1000 season/teams so one can see the top teams from 2003 to 2016 in one top 1000 list. I decided to post a section comparison from that database for consideration of NorCal sections. Bear in mind that the top 1000 list for California is from a total California database of 14 seasons with more than 1000 teams per season or more than 14,000 season/teams. The number is probably closer to 14,700 season/teams.

The Central Coast Section is the next largest section in the NorCal region after the Northern Section. It had 62 season/teams from the list of top 1000. As mentioned in a previous post, the size of the section statistically dictates the number of season/teams found in the top 1000.

The West Catholic League, as expected, had the largest percentage of season/teams for the CCS section. The WCAL had 42 season/teams or 67.7% of the total CCS representation. Most leagues realign periodically and so as a reminder, we are using the 2017 league alignment even though teams may have been from other leagues in the previous 14 years. The WCAL, however, is among a small group of leagues that have almost no change over the last 14 years. Only Sacred Heart Cathedral was added to the WCAL in 2008 and none have left.

Serra was the top CCS school on the list with 11 season/teams. Valley Christian had 9 season/teams and Bellarmine followed third with 8 season/teams on the top 1000 list.

I had two thoughts for which I did some extra counting to get my answer. Palo Alto had one of the strongest teams in the state in 2010 when they beat Centennial Corona. Surprisingly Palo Alto had only two season/teams in the top 1000 list and both times, they went to a state bowl.

So what season/team outside of the WCAL was next on the list. After continuing from St. Francis (6) and Mitty (6), we come to a tie of 5 between Oak Grove of the MHAL league and Los Gatos of the DAAL league. According to the accumulated ratings of these two season/teams, Oak Grove was higher than Los Gatos. We would probably find, though, that the De Anza League is the second strongest league after the CCS’ WCAL league. Both Los Gatos and Palo Alto are from the same DAAL league.

Here is the total CCS list of season/teams within the top 1000.
53. 2008 Bellarmine 67.8
70. 2010 Palo Alto 66.6
90. 2005 Valley Christian 64.3
98. 2011 Bellarmine 63.8
126. 2004 Valley Christian 61.7
159. 2015 Bellarmine 60
175. 2010 Valley Christian 59.2
198. 2007 Oak Grove 58.1
208. 2009 Bellarmine 57.8
228. 2006 Palo Alto 57
252. 2003 Palma 56.3
260. 2008 Valley Christian 56
298. 2003 St. Francis 55
312. 2008 Serra 54.7
328. 2007 Bellarmine 54.2
374. 2007 Serra 53
390. 2016 Valley Christian 52.5
400. 2009 Mitty 52.4
408. 2006 Oak Grove 52.2
410. 2013 Serra 52.1
415. St. Francis 52
458. 2011 Serra 50.7
465. 2009 St. Francis 50.6
467. 2003 Valley Christian 50.6
477. 2012 Bellarmine 50.3
499. 2016 Serra 50
507. 2015 St. Francis 49.8
530. 2005 Los Gatos 49.5
531. 2004 Los Gatos 49.5
532. 2015 Oak Grove 49.4
539. 2005 Palma 49.4
542. 2015 Serra 49.3
543. 2012 St. Ignatius 49.3
547. 2007 Gilroy 49.3
562. 2013 Mitty 49
564. 2006 Palma 49
570. 2005 St. Francis 48.9
585. 2004 Serra 48.7
589. 2006 Serra 48.6
629. 2010 Mitty 47.7
655. 2014 Sacred Heart Prep 47.2
663. 2008 Oak Grove 47.1
665. 2006 St. Ignatius 47.1
671. 2010 Bellarmine 47
679. 2012 Serra 46.9
705. 2007 Valley Christian 46.6
719. 2003 Serra 46.5
732. 2004 Oak Grove 46.3
740. 2016 St. Francis 46.1
784. 2015 Valley Christian 45.6
787. 2011 Mitty 45.6
788. 2010 Serra 45.6
810. 2014 Bellarmine 45.3
827. 2007 Los Gatos 45.1
880. 2014 Valley Christian 44.5
885. 2004 Palma 44.5
927. 2004 Aragon 44.1
943. 2012 Mitty 43.8
954. 2006 Los Gatos 43.7
969. 2007 Mitty 43.5
974. 2015 Riordan 43.4
988. 2014 Los Gatos 43.3
 
North Coast Section
The North Coast section is the second largest section in the NorCal region. It normally has more than 100 schools as it does this year. This section has 88 season/teams in the top 1000 list of season/teams of California. It is no surprise to see De La Salle at the top of the NCS section list. It is a bit surprising, though, to see all 14 season/teams of DLS in the top 14 slots for the section. Pittsburg is next on the list with 10 season/teams. The third place was a tie between California, Foothill and Monte Vista with six season/teams each. A tiebreaker using the accumulated points for each team netted the following results:
Foothill=300.3
Monte Vista=296.1
California=289.9

The leading leagues in the NCS section are not as lopsided as seen for both the WCAL of CCS section and EAL of NS section. Fans debate the comparative strength of the Bay Valley League and the East Bay League. Over the last 14 years, the EBAL has the lead containing 25 season/teams or 28.4% of the total NCS section season/teams versus the BVAL having 15 season/teams or 17% of the total number of the section.

De La Salle has been in 3 leagues in the last 14 seasons. DLS was in the BVAL league for many years. They moved to the EBAL league for a few years as a full league team followed by a couple years of being loosely associated to the EBAL but for the last several years, DLS has been in a freelance designation. DLS’ count was not used in the discussion of BVAL and EBAL leagues even though they were in one league or the other for parts of the last 14 seasons.

I did some basic research on other leagues but decided the North Bay League and Marin County League were too far below the BVAL and EBAL to build a case for clear second tier dominance. The clear dominant team outside of either BVAL or EBAL was Marin Catholic with 4 season/teams in the top 1000 followed by Cardinal Newman and Campolindo each with 3 season/teams in the top 1000. CN had a sliver-thin lead over Campolindo.

Here is the total NCS list of season/teams within the top 1000.
3. 2015 De La Salle 83.8
7. 2014 De La Salle 82.2
11. 2010 De La Salle 79.3
12. 2012 De La Salle 78.2
13. 2003 De La Salle 76.7
15. 2011 De La Salle 75.2
17. 2013 De La Salle 74.7
18. 2007 De La Salle 74.4
35. 2016 De La Salle 70.4
42. 2006 De La Salle 69.2
51. 2008 De La Salle 68.2
73. 2009 De La Salle 66.3
135. 2005 De La Salle 61.2
180. 2004 De La Salle 59
183. 2016 Freedom (Oakley) 58.8
192. 2014 Campolindo 58.2
199. 2003 Miramonte 58.1
218. 2004 Montgomery 57.4
223. 2008 Pittsburg 57.2
230. 2003 Pittsburg 57
235. 2015 Foothill 56.8
249. 2006 Foothill 56.4
251. 2003 Eureka 56.3
269. 2004 San Ramon Valley 55.8
273. 2005 San Leandro 55.7
275. 2012 Logan 55.6
283. 2006 San Ramon Valley 55.4
309. 2014 Clayton Valley 54.7
311. 2010 California 54.7
329. 2006 Cardinal Newman 54.2
343. 2005 Monte Vista 53.9
385. 2007 San Ramon Valley 52.7
397. 2016 Pittsburg 52.4
409. 2016 Monte Vista 52.1
418. 2015 Clayton Valley 51.8
423. 2015 Antioch 51.7
444. 2008 Cardinal Newman 51.2
449. 2014 Pittsburg 51
454. 2007 California 50.9
457. 2004 Amador Valley 50.8
479. 2009 Monte Vista 50.3
496. 2004 Pittsburg 50.1
537. 2008 Foothill 49.4
563. 2012 California 49
569. 2007 Novato 48.9
576. 2006 Novato 48.8
583. 2008 Monte Vista 48.7
592. 2008 San Ramon Valley 48.5
599. 2012 Pittsburg 48.3
616. 2007 Logan 47.9
643. 2014 Foothill 47.4
656. 2011 San Ramon Valley 47.2
696. 2006 Pittsburg 46.7
699. 2016 Calyton Valley 46.6
704. 2008 California 46.6
715. 2012 Marin Catholic 46.5
731. 2006 Dee Valley 46.3
746. 2003 Las Lomas 46.1
749. 2012 Clayton Valley 46
750. 2011 Campolindo 46
756. 2006 Monte Vista 45.9
760. 2003 Foothill 45.9
770. 2015 Pittsburg 45.7
793. 2014 California 45.5
800. 2012 Freedom 45.4
813. 2009 Eureka 45.3
821. 2007 Monte Vista 45.2
822. 2003 Casa Grande 45.2
830. 2003 Marin Catholic 45.1
873. 2005 Ygnacio Valley 44.6
881. 2013 Deer Valley 44.5
883. 2006 Amador Valley 44.5
887. 2011 Marin Catholic 44.4
888. 2009 Pittsburg 44.4
892. 2005 Foothill 44.4
893. 2004 Casa Grande 44.4
904. 2006 Hayward 44.3
906. 2004 Justin-Siena 44.3
910. 2016 Campolindo 44.2
915. 2009 Marin Catholic 44.2
921. 2011 Freedom 44.1
926. 2005 Pittsburg 44.1
930. 2007 Cardinal Newman 44
940. 2007 Las Lomas 43.9
968. 2008 Encinal 43.5
986. 2003 San Lorenzo 43.4
989. 2013 Miramonte 43.3
995. 2013 California 43.2

 
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De La Salle has been in 3 leagues in the last 14 seasons. DLS was in the BVAL league for many years. They moved to the EBAL league for a few years as a full league team followed by a couple years of being loosely associated to the EBAL but for the last several years, DLS has been in a freelance designation. DLS’ count was not used in the discussion of BVAL and EBAL leagues even though they were in one league or the other for parts of the last 14 seasons.

Good stuff FBAddict. Just a clarification: From 2004 (when these stats begin) through 2007, DLS had a Freelance designation and was not officially part of the BVAL. They were officially part of the EBAL for just 4 years, 2008 through 2011, after which they returned to Freelance status.

I don't believe there is any difference as to their status in the BVAL from 2004 to 2007 compared to their current status in the EBAL since 2012. They get the automatic qualifier for the NCS playoffs (as if they need it) and get a heavy concentration of the all league spots. They do continue to play some teams from the EBAL (non-league), but not all of them (some do not want to play them) and do not count in the EBAL standings. DLS remains a full member of the EBAL in other sports.
 
Good stuff FBAddict. Just a clarification: From 2004 (when these stats begin) through 2007, DLS had a Freelance designation and was not officially part of the BVAL. They were officially part of the EBAL for just 4 years, 2008 through 2011, after which they returned to Freelance status.

I don't believe there is any difference as to their status in the BVAL from 2004 to 2007 compared to their current status in the EBAL since 2012. They get the automatic qualifier for the NCS playoffs (as if they need it) and get a heavy concentration of the all league spots. They do continue to play some teams from the EBAL (non-league), but not all of them (some do not want to play them) and do not count in the EBAL standings. DLS remains a full member of the EBAL in other sports.
Thanks for the info - I was working from memory so I appreciate your help.
 
Sac-Joaquin Section
I have saved the largest, and arguably the most exciting section, in the NorCal region for last in my review of season/teams in the top 1000 of California. The Sac-Joaquin section has more than 150 teams and has been steadily growing over the years. The section has 117 season/teams in the top 1000 of California. St. Mary’s was the leading school with 10 season/teams in the top 1000. The second place was a tie of 9 season/teams between Del Oro and Granite Bay. Del Oro has the slight lead for 2nd place with 485.9 accumulated points and Granite Bay followed for third place with 459.3 points. Folsom, Grant and Elk Grove follow for 4th place with a tie of 8 season/teams. Folsom carries the strong tie breaker for 4th place with 498.8 accumulated points. Grant takes 5th place with 458.4 and Elk Grove falls to 6th place with 389.3 points.

Fans might be surprised to see Folsom down at 4th place on this list. One could argue that Folsom should be higher than 4th place especially after seeing that their accumulated points is just under St. Mary’s, even though St. Mary’s has 10 season/teams. However, that is not the purpose of this analysis. By tallying total season/teams of schools listed on the top 1000 season/teams of California, we are essentially evaluating long-term powerhouse dominance of teams. By using accumulated points, we are allowing a few exceptional seasons of one team to overshadow the longer-term dominance of another team that may not have had as many highly exceptional seasons. So instead of being 2nd on my list, Folsom is 4th by these stated reasons. This does not take away the fact that Folsom had some amazing seasons. St. Mary’s is our most consistently dominant team in the SJS Section.

The Sierra Foothill League is the leading league of the SJS section. It has 40 season/teams or 34% of the total SJS season/teams. This places the SFAL league as the third most dominant league within their own section after WCAL league in the CCS section and the EAL league within the NS section. The Delta League is the next strongest league with 25 season/teams or 21.4%. St. Mary’s league, the Tri-City League, has 14 season/teams over the last 14 years. But if it was not for St. Mary’s membership, the TCAL league would be far less significant. The Valley Oak League has 13 season/teams on the top 1000 list and has a broader team membership dominance with Oakdale’s 6 season/teams, Central Catholic’s 5 season/teams and Manteca’s 2 season/teams.

Here is the total SJS list of season/teams within the top 1000.
10. 2014 Folsom 80.2
23. 2008 Grant 72.5
41. 2010 Folsom 69.2
49. 2016 St. Mary's 68.2
63. 2012 Granite Bay 66.9
76. 2013 Folsom 65.7
82. 2005 Nevada Union 65
91. 2015 Folsom 64.1
103. 2003 Oak Ridge 63.7
113. 2015 Central Catholic 62.4
119. 2009 Rockland 62.1
131. 2012 Folsom 61.4
142. 2003 Grant 60.9
146. 2006 Grant 60.6
161. 2015 Del Oro 59.8
168. 2014 Grant 59.5
177. 2015 Elk Grove 59
206. 2016 Del Oro 57.8
210. 2016 Folsom 57.6
226. 2011 Del Oro 57.1
239. 2011 Granite Bay 56.7
256. 2007 Napa 56.1
264. 2006 Vacaville 55.9
266. 2007 Granite Bay 55.8
276. 2010 Grant 55.5
281 2011 Vacaville 55.4
282. 2009 Nevada Union 55.4
293. 2009 Del Oro 55.1
297. 2005 Del Oro 55
300. Oak Ridge 54.9
310. 2014 St. Mary's 54.7
316. 2004 St. Mary's 54.5
323. 2003 Colfax 54.3
324. 2015 Rocklin 54.2
325. 2013 Del Oro 54.2
344. 2004 Del Oro 53.9
352. 2009 Modesto Christian 53.6
359. 2011 Pleasant Grove 53.3
372. 2010 Pleasant Grove 53
377. 2003 Oak Ridge 52.8
384. 2009 Grant 52.7
396. 2004 Oak Ridge 52.5
419. 2009 St. Mary's 51.8
426. 2009 Folsom 51.7
428. 2003 Rancho Cordova 51.7
430. 2012 Oak Ridge 51.6
434. 2012 Franklin (Elk Grove) 51.5
455. 2009 Del Campo 50.8
469. 2011 Lincoln (Stockton) 50.5
494. 2006 Central Catholic 50.1
500. 2012 Central Catholic 50
502. 2005 Grant 50
518. 2008 St. Mary's 49.6
540. 2003 Napa 49.4
541. 2016 Oakdale 49.3
557. 2008 Granite Bay 49.1
559. 2015 Oakdale 49
567. 2011 Folsom 48.9
574. 2008 Casa Roble 48.8
558. 2003 Lincoln (Stockton) 48.8
587. 2007 Elk Grove 48.6
603. 2008. Hilmar 48.2
605. 2006 Elk Grove 48.2
610. 2007 Roseville 48.1
611. 2004 Nevada Union 48.1
613. 2009 Inderkum 48
619. 2015 Granite Bay 47.8
623. 2006 Del Oro 47.8
629. 2005 Rocklin 47.7
634. 2012 Elk Grove 47.6
640. 2011 Oakdale 47.5
641. 2016 Elk Grove 47.4
645. 2009 Granite Bay 47.4
646. 2007 St. Mary's 47.4
669. 2013 Pleasant Grove 669
670. 2012 Oakdale 47
676. 2003 Woodland 47
677. 2003 Eidson 47
680. 2008 Central Catholic 46.9
682. 2007 Vacaville 46.9
686. 2016 Oak Ridge 46.8
687. 2014 Tracy 46.8
693. 2016 Grant 46.7
702. 2013 Elk Grove 46.6
714. 2013 Jesuit 46.5
718. 2003 Laguna Creek 46.5
720. 2015 St. Mary's 46.4
724. 2003 Nevada Union 46.4
725. 2009 Monterey Trail 46.3
729. 2007 Central Catholic 46.3
734. 2014 Elk Grove 46.2
738. 2003 Granite Bay 46.2
751. 2003 Oakdale 46
753. 2014 Vacaville 45.9
765. 2004 Jesuit 45.8
768. 2003 Jesuit 45.8
769. 2003 St. Mary's 45.8
771. 2014 Oakdale 45.7
775. 2011 Elk Grove 45.7
776. 2010 St. Mary's 45.7
780. 2006 Merced 45.7
785. 2014 Granite Bay 45.6
797. 2003 Escalon 45.5
809. 2015 Antelope 45.3
815. 2005 West 45.3
826. 2007 Del Oro 45.1
844. 2005 Manteca 44.9
861. 2009 Pleasant Grove 44.7
911. 2015 Napa 44.2
919. 2014 Rocklin 44.1
925. 2006 Nevada Union 44.1
933. 2012 Buchach Colony 43.9
946. 2008 Whitney 43.8
949. 2004 Granite Bay 43.8
950. 2013 Manteca 43.7
977. 2011 Buhach Colony 43.4
980. 2011 St. Mary's 43.4
 
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NorCal Top Lists
For the final breakdown, here are lists of top teams, top season/teams and top leagues from the NorCal region.

Top 20 Teams
1. 2015 De La Salle 83.8
2. 2014 De La Salle 82.2
3. 2014 Folsom 80.2
4. 2010 De La Salle 79.3
5. 2012 De La Salle 78.2
6. 2003 De La Salle 76.7
7. 2011 De La Salle 75.2
8. 2013 De La Salle 74.7
9. 2007 De La Salle 74.4
10. 2008 Grant 72.5
11. 2016 De La Salle 70.4
12. 2010 Folsom 69.2
13. 2006 De La Salle 69.2
14. 2016 St. Mary's 68.2
15. 2008 De La Salle 68.2
16. 2008 Bellarmine 67.8
17. 2012 Granite Bay 66.9
18. 2010 Palo Alto 66.6
19. 2009 De La Salle 66.3
20. 2013 Folsom 65.7

Top 10 Season/Teams
1. De La Salle 14
2. Serra 11
3t. St. Mary's 10 (507.5)
3t. Pittsburg 10 (497.4)
5t . Del Oro 9 (485.8)
5t. Valley Christian 9 (481)
5t. Granite Bay 9 (459.3)
8t. Folsom 8 (498.8)
8t. Grant 8 (458.4)
8t. Bellarmine 8 (446.2)
8t. Elk Grove 8 (389.3)

Top NorCal Leagues by Season/Teams
1. West Catholic 42 (CCS)
2. Sierra Foothill 40 (SJS)
3t. Delta 25 (SJS)
3t. East Bay 25 (NCS)
5. Eastern 16 (NS)
6. Bay Valley 15 (NCS)
7. Tri-City 14 (SJS)
8. Valley Oak 13 (SJS)
 
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Assuming Ned 's goals are what you state..
He needs to go back to the drawing board.. 2016 Mater Dei. ? Lol

Did you see Mater Dei play last year? They were pretty amazing. Saw their game against Bishop Amat. It really looked like a college team playing a high school team. Their only loss was against SJB (they split their two games). As far as SJB and MD were ahead of the rest of the state (including DLS), this shouldn't really be all that shocking.
 
Did you see Mater Dei play last year? They were pretty amazing. Saw their game against Bishop Amat. It really looked like a college team playing a high school team. Their only loss was against SJB (they split their two games). As far as SJB and MD were ahead of the rest of the state (including DLS), this shouldn't really be all that shocking.

More than once. That is why I was laughing at the thought of 2016 MD as the fourth highest rated CA team from 2003-2016. Comedy.

Sounds like you have been watching exciting CCS action for so long it has warped your judgement.
 
Great stuff FBAddict.....a lot of good Wikiwork for future arguments.
My accountant has gotten old and wrinkled away this past spring; are you available around tax time next spring?
 
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Great stuff FBAddict.....a lot of good Wikiwork for future arguments.
My accountant has gotten old and wrinkled away this past spring; are you available around tax time next spring?
LOL - Thanks!
 
Great stuff FBAddict.....a lot of good Wikiwork for future arguments.
My accountant has gotten old and wrinkled away this past spring; are you available around tax time next spring?
LOL - Thanks!
 
LOL - Thanks!

Ha!!! Love it.
You just did all these incredible rating posts and then turn around and accidentally post a two word post 2x's back to back. Sorta like the NASA engineer that helps put a man on the moon but can't get the TV remote to replay last night's recording of the Simpsons.......

Keep up the good work, Primo
 
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