Homestretch look at CIF State and Regional Bowl Divisions

[Cal 14]

First, I will congratulate the teams that have won their sectional titles:

CCS Open - Serra
NCS Open - De La Salle
SDS Open - Granite Hills
SDS D-V - Sweetwater
SDS D-VAA - Holtville*

* Cal-Hi reported last week that there was language on the SDS website that the D-VAA champion would not advance to the CIF games. However, in their football bulletin, it is stated that all divisional champions would advance. For the time being, I will continue to include the Holtville Vikings.

Next, I will say that the CIF voters are going to have a really, really difficult decision on what to do with Clovis North. Last week, I put the Broncos in the North in anticipation of a general increase of SS team ratings as the playoffs progressed (as what happened in the first two rounds). Well, that didn't really happened this week. There were a number of upsets in the lower divisions and so many of the ratings have actually dropped a little. Conversely, teams like Soquel and Palma have gone up a lot in NorCal.

Geographically, it makes more sense to place Clovis North in the North. Competitively, that gives NorCal at least a slight advantage in 13 of the 15 divisions... and a large advantage in many of them. Placing them in the South balances out things quite a bit, giving NorCal at least a slight advantage in 8 of the 15. Unfortunately, none of those would be from the Open to D-2AA. Additionally, placement of the Broncos in the south removes more mismatches than it creates.

I don't know whether the CIF voters will be going into this with as much depth as I am. From what I understand, they typically start at the top and just work their way down. If they do that, then they may not initially notice how much of an advantage Clovis North would give NorCal, top to bottom. Conversely, putting them in SoCal could give the early (and somewhat false) impression that NorCal is being put at a significant disadvantage overall.

It's going to be very interesting to see what they do.

As for my list... I'm still hemming and hawing as I'm trying to decide. I think what I'll do is publish both lists in subsequent replies. It is going to take a bit of extra work, but it's the least I can do for my adoring fans.

One other thing, now that we're getting down to title game weekend, the predictions below are who Calpreps will each division. In some cases, this will not be the team currently rated higher.

 

[Cal 14]

Clovis North in NorCal version


Open Division (Section Division, Calpreps ratings)

North: Serra (CCS Open, 65.5) vs. South: Mater Dei (SS D-I, 92.7)

D-1AA

North: Clovis North (CS D-I, 64.9) vs. De La Salle (NCS Open, 56.5)

South: Mission Viejo (SS D-2, 66.7) vs. Granite Hills (SDS Open, 65.2)

D-1A

North: Folsom (SJS D-I, 57.2) vs. Rocklin (SJS D-II, 55.7)

South: Warren (SS D-3, 50.4) vs. La Serna (SS D-4, 50.4)

D-2AA

North: Pittsburg (NCS D-1, 51.4) vs. Grant (SJS D-III, 39.7)

South: Mission Hills (SDS D-I, 47.7) vs. Orange Vista (SS D-5, 37.1)

D-2A

North: Los Gatos (CCS D-I, 43.7) vs. San Marin (NCS D-4, 34.0)

South: Central Valley Christian (CS D-II, 34.7) vs. Mira Costa (SS D-6, 30.6)

D-3AA

North: Marin Catholic (NCS D-3, 33.8) vs. Windsor (NCS D-2, 31.9)

South: Del Norte (SDS D-II, 30.0) vs. Birmingham (LACS Open, 26.9)

D-3A

North: Patterson (SJS D-IV, 30.3) vs. McClymonds (OAL, 28.5)

South: El Dorado (SS D-7, 25.9) vs. Mount Miguel (SDS D-IV, 21.9)

D-4AA

North: Twelve Bridges (SJS D-V, 29.2) vs. Soquel (CCS D-II, 26.4)

South: Charter Oak (SS D-8, 18.8) vs. Torres (CS D-IV, 15.7)

D-4A

North: Chico (NS D-II, 26.0) vs. Palma (CCS D-III, 20.6)

South: Santa Monica (SS D-9, 15.6) vs. Mission Oak (CS D-III, 15.4)

D-5AA

North: Woodland Christian (SJS D-VII, 19.6) vs. Bradshaw Christian (SJS D-VI, 19.4)

South: Ramona (SS D-11, 13.3) vs. Torrance (SS D-10, 10.9)

D-5A

North: St. Vincent (NCS D-6, 14.3) vs. Orland (NS D-III, 12.6)

South: Grossmont (SDS D-III, 9.7) vs. Banning (LACS D-I, 6.1)

D-6AA

North: Palo Alto (CCS D-IV, 9.2) vs. St. Bernard's (NCS D-5, 8.5)

South: Yucca Valley (SS D-12, 3.4) vs. Holtville (SDS D-VAA, -2.3)

D-6A

North: Colusa (NS D-IV, -0.1) vs. Portola (NS D-V, -5.0)

South: Sweetwater (SDS D-V, -4.8) vs. Wasco (CS D-V, -6.2)

D-7AA

North: Santa Teresa (CCS D-V, -6.1) vs. Willits (NCS D-VII, -6.7)

South: St. Monica (SS D-13, -10.2) vs. Chatsworth (LACS D-II, -14.2)

D-7A

North: Mendota (CS D-VI, -13.2) vs. Balboa (SFS, -13.5)

South: Lynwood (SS D-14, -23.5) vs. Jordan (LACS D-III, -30.5)

 

[Cal 14]

Clovis North in SoCal version


Open Division (Section Division, Calpreps ratings)

North: Serra (CCS Open, 65.5) vs. South: Mater Dei (SS D-I, 92.7)

D-1AA

North: Folsom (SJS D-I, 57.2) vs. De La Salle (NCS Open, 56.5)

South: Mission Viejo (SS D-2, 66.7) vs. Granite Hills (SDS Open, 65.2)

D-1A

North: Rocklin (SJS D-II, 55.7) vs. Pittsburg (NCS D-1, 51.4)

South: Clovis North (CS D-I, 64.9) vs. Warren (SS D-3, 50.4)

D-2AA

North: Los Gatos (CCS D-I, 43.7) vs. Grant (SJS D-III, 39.7)

South: La Serna (SS D-4, 50.4) vs. Mission Hills (SDS D-I, 47.7)

D-2A

North: San Marin (NCS D-4, 34.0) vs. Marin Catholic (NCS D-3, 33.8)

South: Orange Vista (SS D-5, 37.1) vs. Central Valley Christian (CS D-II, 34.7)

D-3AA

North: Windsor (NCS D-2, 31.9) vs. Patterson (SJS D-IV, 30.3)

South: Mira Costa (SS D-6, 30.6) vs. Del Norte (SDS D-II, 30.0)

D-3A

North: Twelve Bridges (SJS D-V, 29.2) vs. McClymonds (OAL, 28.5)

South: Birmingham (LACS Open, 26.9) vs. El Dorado (SS D-7, 25.9)

D-4AA

North: Soquel (CCS D-II, 26.4) vs. Chico (NS D-II, 26.0)

South: Mount Miguel (SDS D-IV, 21.9) vs. Charter Oak (SS D-8, 18.8)

D-4A

North: Palma (CCS D-III, 20.6) vs. Woodland Christian (SJS D-VII, 19.6)

South: Torres (CS D-IV, 15.7) vs. Santa Monica (SS D-9, 15.6)

D-5AA

North: Bradshaw Christian (SJS D-VI, 19.4) vs. St. Vincent (NCS D-6, 14.3)

South: Mission Oak (CS D-III, 15.4) vs. Ramona (SS D-11, 13.3)

D-5A

North: Orland (NS D-III, 12.6) vs. Palo Alto (CCS D-IV, 9.2)

South: Torrance (SS D-10, 10.9) vs. Grossmont (SDS D-III, 9.7)

D-6AA

North: St. Bernard's (NCS D-5, 8.5) vs. Colusa (NS D-IV, -0.1)

South: Banning (LACS D-I, 6.1) vs. Yucca Valley (SS D-12, 3.4)

D-6A

North: Portola (NS D-V, -5.0) vs. Santa Teresa (CCS D-V, -6.1)

South: Holtville (SDS D-VAA, -2.3) vs. Sweetwater (SDS D-V, -4.8)

D-7AA

North: Wasco (CS D-V, -6.2) vs. Willits (NCS D-VII, -6.7)

South: St. Monica (SS D-13, -10.2) vs. Chatsworth (LACS D-II, -14.2)

D-7A

North: Mendota (CS D-VI, -13.2) vs. Balboa (SFS, -13.5)

South: Lynwood (SS D-14, -23.5) vs. Jordan (LACS D-III, -30.5)

 

[Cal 14]

Hot points:

De La Salle and Folsom - The head-to-head result will probably prevail, but Folsom will almost assuredly be ahead in Calpreps at the end of the weekend if the Bulldogs beat Oak Ridge. In the Clovis North to SoCal version, clearly it won't matter.

Granite Hills and Clovis North (SoCal version) - Granite Hills did not go out-of-section the entire season and that may be enough to push them to D-1A, considering Clovis North got a big win against JSerra from the SS.

NCS D-1 (either Pittsburg or San Ramon Valley) - Cal-Hi has this division winner in D-1A, stating that this is where it typically has been. While true, it's also true that it's largely been overmatched in a lot of these games. By the numbers, there's not much reason to favor either team over either winner of SJS D-II.

Grant and Los Gatos - Last week I commented on how Los Gatos' rating gap over Grant might push them higher in division. Last weekend's results ended up giving the Pacers a much larger boost and considering each teams' opponent this weekend, I might guess that a similar boost is likely. Grant may not overtake the Wildcats, but the ratings will be close enough to make the switch in the NorCal version (due to head-to-head), while it won't matter in the SoCal version.

McClymonds and Twelve Bridges - What to do about the Warriors? Their rating has been dropping due to their previous opponents losing playoff games and the fact that so few of their own games directly make an impact. I feel that they will end up being under-rated while I think Twelve Bridges might be a little over-rated, when looking at their body of work for the season. I also suspect reputation may play into things and place Mac higher. How much higher? I don't know considering their rating may drop all the way to Soquel range if Pittsburg does beat San Ramon Valley for the NCS D-1 title. Cal-Hi has them all the way up to D-2A and I can sort of see that, since all of the teams in this range are relatively close. But that move would be about reputation alone, since the data doesn't really support it.

Shafter and Torres - Signficant controversy in the Torres win over Shafter last weekend in overtime. It seems that the Toros running back also is their long snapper for PATs. Having just scored a TD to pull within one of the Generals, a bad snap led to a mad scramble for the kicker who found said running back for a 2-point conversion and the win. The problem is that, being the snapper, he was not eligible to make the reception. I'm unsure whether the Shafter staff failed to immediately launch a protest or whether the refs simply ran off the field after the score (as one witness claimed), but a subsequent protest fell short and Torres will be facing Dos Palos for the CS D-IV title this weekend.

Portola and Santa Teresa - Cal-Hi suggested that Portola may have opted out of the CIF games due to their location and the fact that winter could make travel unpredictable (they're located north of Lake Tahoe). While that would make sense, I do hope that the players, coaches, and fans get the opportunity to compete for a state title, should they wish to do so. I could see the CIF move Santa Teresa up one division and Colusa down, which would reduce travel for the NS teams.

 

[FBAddict]

Great job here, @Cal 14. You obviously put in a lot of time here.

I see you have favored the head to head team in most cases. I think this will be the most likely thinking of the committee. However, in a few cases other factors might take precedence. For example, in the NorCal version, you have Clovis North vs DLS and Folsom vs Rocklin. This makes sense for head to head win by DLS. However this scenario forces a same section and same league matchup between Folsom and Rocklin. The committee might favor putting Folsom over DLS against Clovis North in this case. That's a tough one for sure.

There are a few other lower level matchups that might have other factors beyond head to head wins to get better games.

We will see very soon!!!

Will you do a work up next Sunday morning?

 

[FBAddict]

Hot points:

De La Salle and Folsom - The head-to-head result will probably prevail, but Folsom will almost assuredly be ahead in Calpreps at the end of the weekend if the Bulldogs beat Oak Ridge. In the Clovis North to SoCal version, clearly it won't matter.

Granite Hills and Clovis North (SoCal version) - Granite Hills did not go out-of-section the entire season and that may be enough to push them to D-1A, considering Clovis North got a big win against JSerra from the SS.

NCS D-1 (either Pittsburg or San Ramon Valley) - Cal-Hi has this division winner in D-1A, stating that this is where it typically has been. While true, it's also true that it's largely been overmatched in a lot of these games. By the numbers, there's not much reason to favor either team over either winner of SJS D-II.

Grant and Los Gatos - Last week I commented on how Los Gatos' rating gap over Grant might push them higher in division. Last weekend's results ended up giving the Pacers a much larger boost and considering each teams' opponent this weekend, I might guess that a similar boost is likely. Grant may not overtake the Wildcats, but the ratings will be close enough to make the switch in the NorCal version (due to head-to-head), while it won't matter in the SoCal version.

McClymonds and Twelve Bridges - What to do about the Warriors? Their rating has been dropping due to their previous opponents losing playoff games and the fact that so few of their own games directly make an impact. I feel that they will end up being under-rated while I think Twelve Bridges might be a little over-rated, when looking at their body of work for the season. I also suspect reputation may play into things and place Mac higher. How much higher? I don't know considering their rating may drop all the way to Soquel range if Pittsburg does beat San Ramon Valley for the NCS D-1 title. Cal-Hi has them all the way up to D-2A and I can sort of see that, since all of the teams in this range are relatively close. But that move would be about reputation alone, since the data doesn't really support it.

Shafter and Torres - Signficant controversy in the Torres win over Shafter last weekend in overtime. It seems that the Toros running back also is their long snapper for PATs. Having just scored a TD to pull within one of the Generals, a bad snap led to a mad scramble for the kicker who found said running back for a 2-point conversion and the win. The problem is that, being the snapper, he was not eligible to make the reception. I'm unsure whether the Shafter staff immediately launched a protest or whether the refs simply ran off the field after the score (as one witness claimed), but a subsequent protest fell short and Torres will be facing Dos Palos for the CS D-IV title this weekend.

Portola and Santa Teresa - Cal-Hi suggested that Portola may have opted out of the CIF games due to their location and the fact that winter could make travel unpredictable (they're located north of Lake Tahoe). While that would make sense, I do hope that the players, coaches, and fans get the opportunity to compete for a state title, should they wish to do so. I could see the CIF move Santa Teresa up one division and Colusa down, which would reduce travel for the NS teams.

Ah, you have touched upon a couple points I was thinking about.

 

[Cal 14]

Great job here, @Cal 14. You obviously put in a lot of time here.

Yes, this one took longer than the previous two.

I see you have favored the head to head team in most cases. I think this will be the most likely thinking of the committee. However, in a few cases other factors might take precedence. For example, in the NorCal version, you have Clovis North vs DLS and Folsom vs Rocklin. This makes sense for head to head win by DLS. However this scenario forces a same section and same league matchup between Folsom and Rocklin. The committee might favor putting Folsom over DLS against Clovis North in this case. That's a tough one for sure.

I thought about this, too. I figure that if SJS fans are ok with Folsom getting a rematch with DLS, it would be a little hypocritical for them to not be ok with a rematch with Rocklin. Ultimately, I think the game that really needs to be avoided is DLS-SRV III.

There are a few other lower level matchups that might have other factors beyond head to head wins to bet better games.

I have to say that the lower matchups with Clovis North in the South are better and more even. I would hate to see NorCal take another beating in the top 5 games, but the alternative probably isn't fair to SoCal.

We will see very soon!!!

Will you do a work up next Sunday morning?

I don't know. I'm going to a concert Saturday night, so I'll have to see what my energy level will be. I'm guessing that the official announcement may get delayed as the Clovis North thing gets decided. That might buy me some time.

 

[FBAddict]

I thought about this, too. I figure that if SJS fans are ok with Folsom getting a rematch with DLS, it would be a little hypocritical for them to not be ok with a rematch with Rocklin. Ultimately, I think the game that really needs to be avoided is DLS-SRV III.

Maybe St. Mary's will solve this one dilemma for us.

 

[ararar]

Thanks 🙏🏼 appreciate your work

 

[FBAddict]

I see I had commented on the wrong thread. @Cal 14's previous thread got pulled into a more recently commented thread.

 

[remc]

Hot points:

De La Salle and Folsom - The head-to-head result will probably prevail, but Folsom will almost assuredly be ahead in Calpreps at the end of the weekend if the Bulldogs beat Oak Ridge. In the Clovis North to SoCal version, clearly it won't matter.

Granite Hills and Clovis North (SoCal version) - Granite Hills did not go out-of-section the entire season and that may be enough to push them to D-1A, considering Clovis North got a big win against JSerra from the SS.

NCS D-1 (either Pittsburg or San Ramon Valley) - Cal-Hi has this division winner in D-1A, stating that this is where it typically has been. While true, it's also true that it's largely been overmatched in a lot of these games. By the numbers, there's not much reason to favor either team over either winner of SJS D-II.

Grant and Los Gatos - Last week I commented on how Los Gatos' rating gap over Grant might push them higher in division. Last weekend's results ended up giving the Pacers a much larger boost and considering each teams' opponent this weekend, I might guess that a similar boost is likely. Grant may not overtake the Wildcats, but the ratings will be close enough to make the switch in the NorCal version (due to head-to-head), while it won't matter in the SoCal version.

McClymonds and Twelve Bridges - What to do about the Warriors? Their rating has been dropping due to their previous opponents losing playoff games and the fact that so few of their own games directly make an impact. I feel that they will end up being under-rated while I think Twelve Bridges might be a little over-rated, when looking at their body of work for the season. I also suspect reputation may play into things and place Mac higher. How much higher? I don't know considering their rating may drop all the way to Soquel range if Pittsburg does beat San Ramon Valley for the NCS D-1 title. Cal-Hi has them all the way up to D-2A and I can sort of see that, since all of the teams in this range are relatively close. But that move would be about reputation alone, since the data doesn't really support it.

Shafter and Torres - Signficant controversy in the Torres win over Shafter last weekend in overtime. It seems that the Toros running back also is their long snapper for PATs. Having just scored a TD to pull within one of the Generals, a bad snap led to a mad scramble for the kicker who found said running back for a 2-point conversion and the win. The problem is that, being the snapper, he was not eligible to make the reception. I'm unsure whether the Shafter staff failed to immediately launch a protest or whether the refs simply ran off the field after the score (as one witness claimed), but a subsequent protest fell short and Torres will be facing Dos Palos for the CS D-IV title this weekend.

Portola and Santa Teresa - Cal-Hi suggested that Portola may have opted out of the CIF games due to their location and the fact that winter could make travel unpredictable (they're located north of Lake Tahoe). While that would make sense, I do hope that the players, coaches, and fans get the opportunity to compete for a state title, should they wish to do so. I could see the CIF move Santa Teresa up one division and Colusa down, which would reduce travel for the NS teams.

Who has the NCS D1 winner been overmatched by? Most if their losses have come by DLS, who's been the best NorCal team for decades. I know Pitt got beat badly by Liberty of Bakersfield in a State Bowl game. But outside of Serra Liberty was better than any team in NorCal last year. Can't wait to see Pitt-Folsom

 

[Cal 14]

Who has the NCS D1 winner been overmatched by? Most if their losses have come by DLS, who's been the best NorCal team for decades. I know Pitt got beat badly by Liberty of Bakersfield in a State Bowl game. But outside of Serra Liberty was better than any team in NorCal last year. Can't wait to see Pitt-Folsom

Pitt has been beaten badly the last two years by Liberty. Clayton Valley lost to Narbonne, as did Pitt. The only NCS team to win in either D-1AA or D-1A is Liberty.

 

[remc]

Pitt has been beaten badly the last two years by Liberty. Clayton Valley lost to Narbonne, as did Pitt. The only NCS team to win in either D-1AA or D-1A is Liberty.

Yes, we know about Liberty. So because they've lost in State games they've been overmatched? Clayton Valley was using a RB to play QB since their 1-3 QBs were injured. Probably was a factor. Lazy conclusion. Narbonne won a couple of titles, the other wasn't an NCS team. So they weren't chopped liver. Neither was Liberty Bakersfield. You still haven't answered who in NorCal would have neaten them

 

[Cal 14]

Yes, we know about Liberty. So because they've lost in State games they've been overmatched? Clayton Valley was using a RB to play QB since their 1-3 QBs were injured. Probably was a factor. Lazy conclusion. Narbonne won a couple of titles, the other wasn't an NCS team. So they weren't chopped liver. Neither was Liberty Bakersfield. You still haven't answered who in NorCal would have neaten them

You seem to be missing the point.

CalHi uses the argument for placing the NCS D-1 winner in D-1A that it is 'where the CIF normally puts them'. It is to that I say "So what?" What has the NCS winner done to especially seal that spot? I say "nothing". The record for this year doesn't entirely show that Pitt should be placed above the SJS D-II winner.

One can make this argument:

Q: What is the main difference between Pittsburg and Rocklin?

A: The Pirates didn't have to play either De La Salle or Folsom.

I was the proponent of placing Pitt in the NCS Open since SRV had their chance and failed to unseat the Spartans. Now, you have somewhat of a controversy as to who the top team in the section really is... which is what the playoffs are supposed to answer. This new format isn't especially designed to have an undefeated team make it through and not win the Open title, nor for the Open winner to do so by only facing the 7 and 8 seeds. We'll see if they stick with it.

 

[remc]

You seem to be missing the point.

CalHi uses the argument for placing the NCS D-1 winner in D-1A that it is 'where the CIF normally puts them'. It is to that I say "So what?" What has the NCS winner done to especially seal that spot? I say "nothing". The record for this year doesn't entirely show that Pitt should be placed above the SJS D-II winner.

One can make this argument:

Q: What is the main difference between Pittsburg and Rocklin?

A: The Pirates didn't have to play either De La Salle or Folsom.

I was the proponent of placing Pitt in the NCS Open since SRV had their chance and failed to unseat the Spartans. Now, you have somewhat of a controversy as to who the top team in the section really is... which is what the playoffs are supposed to answer. This new format isn't especially designed to have an undefeated team make it through and not win the Open title, nor for the Open winner to do so by only facing the 7 and 8 seeds. We'll see if they stick with it.

Well personally I think Pitt and DLS should play each other for the NCS and Open as they have always traditionally done. Pitt is an Open contender school, not a D1. Don't understand how the NCS can see it otherwise.

 

[THEOC89]

Well personally I think Pitt and DLS should play each other for the NCS and Open as they have always traditionally done. Pitt is an Open contender school, not a D1. Don't understand how the NCS can see it otherwise.

PITT should have been the #2 seed in the NCS open, The section Did them Dirty….

They gave it to SRV because of their close loss to DLS which shouldn’t have been that close as DLS was up 27-12 with the game in hand and then made some bad mistakes….

A League Championship should mean something and since PITT was an undefeated League Champ they should have been #2 over SRV who lost their league to DLS…..