A virus reality check

[colhenrylives]

Some illuminating data-based context might be helpful right now as California continues to deal with the pandemic (and its dire effects on education and competitive athletics). The latest numbers from the CDC are instructive. According to that authoritative source, California has been performing well in controlling the spread of the virus when compared to the rest of the country; it ranked fifth in the nation, based on new disease cases per 100,000 residents, over the latest seven-day reporting period. Only Virginia, Maine, Vermont and Hawaii were ahead of California in this important regard. Our figure was just 19.8 cases per 100,00 folks. Here are the seven-day case stats for our western peers, ranked in order of effectiveness: Oregon, 21.9; Washington, 24.1; Arizona, 32.2; Nevada, 47.8; New Mexico, 63.5; Idaho, 75.6; Colorado, 81.4; Utah, 95.8; Montana, 100.6; Wyoming, 128.2. But we would point out one caveat for California: Our state is so large and diverse that some counties doing extremely well (or poorly) might skew our overall data. Nonetheless, our performance seen in a national light has to be viewed as rather impressive.

 

[colhenrylives]

For many of us, 2020 will go down as one of the very worst years in our lifetimes. Although, I dare say 1968 was no bargain as well.

 

[MTsince2004]

For many of us, 2020 will go down as one of the very worst years in our lifetimes. Although, I dare say 1968 was no bargain as well.

HEY! I take that shot personally. Just because I was born in 1968 doesn't mean it was a bad year. 😁

In all seriousness, you are right. 1968 was a bad year, but 2020 decided to include a bunch of that, to throw in a serving size of 1929, and a whole lot of 1918 into the "Worst Year Ever" stew. Let's just hope some other year in the future doesn't say "Hold my beer" Because I want NOTHING to do with early 1940's.

 

[ArmchairGOAT]

From a San Francisco restaurant owner:
“Restaurant owner here 🙋‍♂️
Just so everyone understands, it isn't the shutdowns that are killing us.

It's the virus

Even at 50% capacity, we're never full

Lifting restrictions won't help at all. Getting the virus under control is our only hope.”

 

[LeeCorso1234]

The vaccine will be given both doses to 25 million most at risk by mid January. We are very close to making our way to normal.

 

[RLS13]

The vaccine will be given both doses to 25 million most at risk by mid January. We are very close to making our way to normal.

The first 2 vaccines being brought forward are great for all of us and ther should be more coming soon. I believe by next spring we will be well on the path to normalization. However, for the near future it is looking less likely that the CIF is going to allow any sports much less Football to proceed.

It is a shame as it appears that the states that did allow for a fall high school season, saw no negative impact. Some had/have better metrics than CA and others have/had worst. it appears high school sports had very little impact on states COVID metrics.

UW study finds participation in high school sports does not lead to an increase in COVID cases among athletes

Results from a study conducted by the University of Wisconsin were published Thursday and concluded that participation in high school sports has not led to an increase in COVID-19 infections

waow.com

A quick google search found this from 10/22. I could find ant other articles or studies that showed a direct link between High School sports and an increase in COVID. California and the CIF really blew it. Hopefully they allow for the return of sports next month.

 

[Streak One]

I’m curious if there is a resource out there that says how states faired that played. How many games did teams get in? Cancellations, etc.

Some games is better than none for sure but I’m not sure how many states had a “normal year”

 

[ankleassassin]

The first 2 vaccines being brought forward are great for all of us and ther should be more coming soon. I believe by next spring we will be well on the path to normalization. However, for the near future it is looking less likely that the CIF is going to allow any sports much less Football to proceed.

It is a shame as it appears that the states that did allow for a fall high school season, saw no negative impact. Some had/have better metrics than CA and others have/had worst. it appears high school sports had very little impact on states COVID metrics.

UW study finds participation in high school sports does not lead to an increase in COVID cases among athletes

Results from a study conducted by the University of Wisconsin were published Thursday and concluded that participation in high school sports has not led to an increase in COVID-19 infections

waow.com

A quick google search found this from 10/22. I could find no toher articles or studies that showed a direct link between High School sports and an increase in COVID. California and the CIF really blew it. Hopefully they allow for the return of sports next month.

but there are plenty of indirect links.... and honestly there is no real way to know who, when and how so it is all speculation and what you decide to believe.

 

[RedZone90]

From a San Francisco restaurant owner:
“Restaurant owner here 🙋‍♂️
Just so everyone understands, it isn't the shutdowns that are killing us.

It's the virus

Even at 50% capacity, we're never full

Lifting restrictions won't help at all. Getting the virus under control is our only hope.”

It could help millions...

COVID-related hunger could kill more people than the virus | UN Global Compact

unglobalcompact.org

 

[colhenrylives]

What is disturbing in California is that, since mid-March, the authorities continue to change their rules, alter their recommendations and metrics, yo-yo businesses, schools, churches, etc. up and down seemingly on the whim of the moment or the latest hot flash of enlightenment. There is a lack of transparency, consistency and overall logic. The recommendations have been all over the place. Some of it makes sense, a lot of it does not. Here's one example: Children are the least likely to suffer terribly from the virus or even spread it yet schools, especially public schools, are treated almost like nursing homes. People 55 and over, especially those with existing medical problems, tend to take care of themselves; they are careful; they try to avoid the virus. By slamming the door on the entire state economy (all aspects of it) and treating everyone the same seems irrational. By the way, are teachers essential workers or not? Sadly, if you butt up against the prevailing dogma and question it, you are treated like some sort of heretic during the Spanish Inquisition. The state is losing credibility. Granted, it's not an easy job by any means. But isn't it high time for more balance in all of this _ even with a vaccine seemingly on the horizon?

 

[bella123]

I’m curious if there is a resource out there that says how states faired that played. How many games did teams get in? Cancellations, etc.

Some games is better than none for sure but I’m not sure how many states had a “normal year”

Let’s see. I gotta admit being lazy and only using states already in playoffs and so the states with delayed starts are obviously not included.

Alabama second round:

Hoover (11-1) 24 Birmingham Oak Mountain (7-5) 21

Auburn (10-1) 13 Daphne (10-2) 7

Phenix City Central (8-4) 30 Theodore (10-2) 24

Alabaster Thompson (12-0) 42 Trussville Hewitt-Trussville (8-3) 16

11-12 games in.

Arkansas 1st round scores:

Cabot (7-3) 48 Rogers (6-3) 15

Springdale Har-Ber (5-6) 49 Fort Smith Northside (5-5) 28

North Little Rock (10-1) 38 Fort Smith Southside (2-9) 0

9-11 games each team

Florida playin games:


Plant City (7-3) @ Valrico Bloomingdale (8-0)

Bradenton Lakewood Ranch (5-3) @ Bradenton Manatee (6-1)

7-10 games for each team

Idaho semi finals:

Rigby (10-0) 26 Mountain View (5-4) 19

Meridian Rocky Mountain (8-0) 36 Coeur d’Alene (8-1) 21

9-10 games

Indiana regional finals:

Westfield (11-1) 42 Homestead (10-2) 9

Greenwood Center Grove (12-0) 38 Indianapolis Warren Central (4-6) 0

Merrillville (10-1) 27 Elkhart (9-1) 24

10-12 games

Iowa state semifinals:


Ankeny (10-1) 31 West Des Moines Dowling Catholic (8-2) 24

Pleasant Hill Southeast Polk (10-0) 50 Pleasant Valley (8-1) 10

9-11 games

Nebraska Semi-Finals

Elkhorn South (10-1) 10 Kearney (5-5) 3

Omaha Westside (11-0) 35 Omaha Millard South (8-2) 33

 

[WCAL75]

Let’s see. I gotta admit being lazy and only using states already in playoffs and so the states with delayed starts are obviously not included.

Alabama second round:

Hoover (11-1) 24 Birmingham Oak Mountain (7-5) 21

Auburn (10-1) 13 Daphne (10-2) 7

Phenix City Central (8-4) 30 Theodore (10-2) 24

Alabaster Thompson (12-0) 42 Trussville Hewitt-Trussville (8-3) 16

11-12 games in.

Arkansas 1st round scores:

Cabot (7-3) 48 Rogers (6-3) 15

Springdale Har-Ber (5-6) 49 Fort Smith Northside (5-5) 28

North Little Rock (10-1) 38 Fort Smith Southside (2-9) 0

9-11 games each team

Florida playin games:


Plant City (7-3) @ Valrico Bloomingdale (8-0)

Bradenton Lakewood Ranch (5-3) @ Bradenton Manatee (6-1)

7-10 games for each team

Idaho semi finals:

Rigby (10-0) 26 Mountain View (5-4) 19

Meridian Rocky Mountain (8-0) 36 Coeur d’Alene (8-1) 21

9-10 games

Indiana regional finals:

Westfield (11-1) 42 Homestead (10-2) 9

Greenwood Center Grove (12-0) 38 Indianapolis Warren Central (4-6) 0

Merrillville (10-1) 27 Elkhart (9-1) 24

10-12 games

Iowa state semifinals:


Ankeny (10-1) 31 West Des Moines Dowling Catholic (8-2) 24

Pleasant Hill Southeast Polk (10-0) 50 Pleasant Valley (8-1) 10

9-11 games

Nebraska Semi-Finals

Elkhorn South (10-1) 10 Kearney (5-5) 3

Omaha Westside (11-0) 35 Omaha Millard South (8-2) 33

Impressive. Although none of those teams will be allowed to attend the end of season dinner together

 

[bella123]

Impressive. Although none of those teams will be allowed to attend the end of season dinner together

Actually the French Laundry has agreed to host all end of year team dinners, come one come all😂.

 

[RLS13]

Some Data to ponder.

This could be used to either start the season or that delaying the season was the right move.

From the CDC as of yesterday;

Lowest 10 states per 100,000 infection rate: (CA is 11) 3 of these states are playing football according to Max Preps

State/Territory	Total Cases	Case Rate per 100000	Total Deaths	Death Rate per 100000	Case Rate per 100000 in Last 7 Days	Death Rate per 100K in Last 7 Days	Playing Football
Vermont	3104	496	60	9	14.6	0	No
Maine	9519	711	170	12	14.1	0.1	No
New Hampshire	15303	1128	502	37	25.1	0.1	Yes
Hawaii	16515	1163	221	15	5.6	0	No
Oregon	58570	1398	778	18	22.7	0.1	No
Washington	134121	1780	2571	34	26.8	0.2	No
West Virginia	35324	1956	598	33	47.5	0.4	Yes
Pennsylvania	275513	2151	9355	73	41.1	0.3	Yes
Virginia	208834	2452	3860	45	20.7	0.2	No
New York	283503	2544	9544	85	26.9	0.2	No

Lowest 10 states per 100,000 Death rate: (CA is #18 lowest on this list) Half of these states are playing football. Some of these, Wyoming, have seen a large 7 day spike. No documentation linking it to High school football.

State/Territory	Total Cases	Case Rate per 100000	Total Deaths	Death Rate per 100000	Case Rate per 100000 in Last 7 Days	Death Rate per 100K in Last 7 Days	Playing Football
Vermont	3104	496	60	9	14.6	0	No
Maine	9519	711	170	12	14.1	0.1	No
Alaska	23874	3237	99	13	80.6	0.1	Yes
Hawaii	16515	1163	221	15	5.6	0	No
Oregon	58570	1398	778	18	22.7	0.1	No
Utah	158957	5028	732	23	97.5	0.3	Yes
Wyoming	24453	4232	155	26	128.9	0.7	Yes
West Virginia	35324	1956	598	33	47.5	0.4	Yes
Washington	134121	1780	2571	34	26.8	0.2	No
New Hampshire	15303	1128	502	37	25.1	0.1	Yes

Here are the Bottom 10 Case Rates: highest Case rates, it look like alot of the lower population states have taken a real hard hit from Covid over the last 7 days, pushing them into higher case rates.

State/Territory	Total Cases	Case Rate per 100000	Total Deaths	Death Rate per 100000	Case Rate per 100000 in Last 7 Days	Death Rate per 100K in Last 7 Days	Playing Football
North Dakota	67230	8845	785	103	185.3	1.9	Yes
South Dakota	67284	7626	644	73	161.1	1.7	Yes
Iowa	191413	6065	2028	64	134	0.7	Yes
Wisconsin	342155	5886	2867	49	118.8	1	Yes
Nebraska	103805	5380	816	42	119	0.6	Yes
Utah	158957	5028	732	23	97.5	0.3	Yes
Idaho	85125	4853	798	45	79	0.7	Yes
Tennessee	320729	4738	3995	59	65.4	0.7	Yes
Illinois	597849	4692	11317	88	97.2	0.8	No
Montana	49398	4650	543	51	110.9	1.1	Yes

Bottom 10 Death Rates per 100000: CDC tracked NYC as its own state, separate form the state of NY.

State/Territory	Total Cases	Case Rate per 100000	Total Deaths	Death Rate per 100000	Case Rate per 100000 in Last 7 Days	Death Rate per 100K in Last 7 Days	Playing Football
New York City	289018	3441	24149	287	20	0.1	No
New Jersey	285519	3205	16618	186	40.2	0.3	Yes
Massachusetts	196670	2849	10338	149	34.8	0.4	No
Connecticut	94986	2659	4771	133	48	0.3	No
Louisiana	207685	4457	6156	132	39.8	0.3	Yes
Mississippi	137396	4600	3601	120	38.3	0.5	Yes
Rhode Island	44528	4211	1278	120	77.4	0.6	No
North Dakota	67230	8845	785	103	185.3	1.9	Yes
Illinois	597849	4692	11317	88	97.2	0.8	No

I want football, along with all sports, to start in California. As a parent I am seeing what lack of sports is doing to my own child and his friends. I believe that we can start a season in January and take the proper steps to minimize the spread of COVID.