CCS Play-off projections with two weeks to go

[PALbooster]

CCS play-off projections with four weeks to go

Here are the CCS Play-off projections with four weeks left in the season. Barring an upset where one of these teams’ losses to someone other than those in the Open/D1 division, this field looks set although seedings could change. Some small edits to this as the Saturday scores adjust Calprep and CCS rankings but this will be pretty close to final for this week (edits made)

Open/D1

8. Riordan 4-6 65.5 at 1. St. Ignatius 9-1 80.5

7. Salinas 8-2 67 at 2. St. Francis 8-2 77

Winners of Round 1 play for open championship – loser of open championship plays winner of round two game below for D1 championship.

6. Valley Christian 5-5 66.5 at 3. Los Gatos 9-1 76

5. Soquel 8-2 72 at 4. Serra 6-4 75

D2

8. Palma 5-5 48.5* at 1. Christopher 9-1 61

5. Burlingame 9-1 52.5 at 4. Sacred Heart Cathedral 4-6 55

6. Menlo School 7-3 52* at 3. Wilcox 6-4 58.5

7. Monterey 6-4 52* at 2.Menlo-Atherton 8-2 59.5

Elevated to D2 as no B league team can play in D1 or D2

D3

8. Aptos 5-5 40.5 at 1. Carmel 10-0 62*

5. Hollister 5-5 46 at 4. Santa Teresa 9-1 47.5

6. Palo Alto 5-5 43 at 3. Willow Glen 10-0 50.5*

7. Capuchino 8-2 41.5 at 2. Half Moon Bay 10-0 56.5*

Dropped to D3 as no B league team can play in DI or D2

D4

8. Live Oak 3-7 28** at 1. Piedmont Hills 8-2 41.5

5. Hillsdale 5-5 33.5 at 4. Sacred Heart Prep 3-7 33.5

6. San Mateo 7-3 33. at 3. Sobrato 8-2 36.5

7. North Salinas 7-3 32 at 2. Branham 7-3 39

Elevated to D4 as no A league team an be in D5 and all C league teams must be in D5.

D5
8. Gunderson 7-3 19 at 1. North Monterey County 8-2 31.5
5. Alisal 6-4 24 at 4. Pioneer 6-4 24.5
6. Gunn 10-0 23.5 at 3. Woodside 8-2 30.5
7. South San Francisco 7-3 23 at 2. San Lorenzo Valley 10-0 31**

Dropped from D4 to D5 as all C league teams must be in D5.

WCAL

Top four automatic qualifiers will go to St. Ignatius, St. Francis and Valley Christian. Riordan and Sacred Heart Cathedral will likely get two at -large bids. Winner of round robin between league’s 3 3-0 teams Si, VC and St. Francis will get at least a share of the title. Big game this coming week is SI vs St. Francis.

PAL-Bay

Los Gatos is a prohibitive favorite to win this league outright already having defeated Menlo-Atherton. This league gets five automatic berths and Menlo-Atherton, Wilcox, Menlo School, and Palo Alto based on their win this week over Sacred Heart Prep figure to get the other spots. Sacred Heart Prep is currently projected to get the final at-large berth even if it losses its remaining games.

Gabilan

Soquel will be favored to win the league championship when they face-off with Salinas on the road on 11-01. A remarkable ascent for a team that played in a C league in 2018 and a B league in 2022. They are projected to end up as the #2 public school in the CCS. Salinas, Hollister and Monterey are in line to win the other three automatic berths and Palma and Aptos will likely get at-large berths.

Mount Hamilton

Christopher has already beaten the next two highest ranked league opponents Santa Teresa and Branham and should cruise to a league championship. Santa Teresa, Branham and Live Oak should get the last three automatic spots. Lincoln and Leigh are unlikely to get an at-large berth.

PAL-Deanza

This A league gets three automatic berths. Burlingame is favored to win this league with Capuchino and Hillsdale projected to get the other two berths. Kings Academy is projected as fourth and will not get an at-larger spot.

PAL Ocean

Half Moon Bay is a strong favorite to win the league outright and finish the season 10-0 with A league wins over Burlingame, Hillsdale and Sacred Heart Prep. Half Moon Bays power point projections would place them in the middle of D2 but the new CCS rules will drop them to D3 for the play-offs. San Mateo is projected for second ahead of Carlmont and Milpitas (they have beaten both teams). Carlmontis on the bubble for an at-large berth and is currently projected to get edged out by Sacred Heart Prep.

Mission South

Carmel is a prohibitive favorite win this league and finish 10-0 with wins over A league teams Christopher and Monterey. Despite being currently ranked the 9th in the CCS and having the 9th most points the new CCS play-off rules will place them in D3. North Salinas is a strong favorite to get the second spot from this league already having beaten Pacific Grove which is projected for third. Due to their weak schedule Pacific Grove is unlikely to get an at-large spot.

Mission North

With their win over Alisal this week, North Monterey County is a strong favorite to win this league. Alisal and St. Francis figure to contend for the second automatic berth. No one from this league will be strong enough to get an at-large berth.

Valley

With their win over Sobrato this week, Willow Glen should finish 10-0 and win the league outright. Sobrato is a heavy favorite over Leland to capture the second play-off spot.

Foothill

Piedmont Hills is projected as a strong favorite to win this league over Pioneer and Overfelt. Pioneer is projected to get the second automatic berth over Overfelt.

El Camino

The championship should be decided in this weeks game between Woodside at South San Francisco with the loser likely to get the second play-off spot from this league.

Santa Lucia

San Lorenzo Valley is a strong favorite to finish 10-0 and get this C league’s only play-off berth. Stevenson is projected as the second place team from this league.

Lake

This will be an extremely competitive league between Gunn, Jefferson and Saratoga. The winner of the round robin will likely win the league and if they all end up 1-1 the winner will likely be whoever wins the Jefferson vs Gunn game as Saratoga has a tie in league against Monta Vista. Gunn is a slight favorite to end 10-0 and has only given up one touchdown through 6 games.

West Valley

This week’s game between Gunderson and Evergreen Valley will likely determine the league championship and who will be the league’s paly-off representative.

 

[aztecpadre]

Love this time of year when PAL comes out with the projections! Much appreciated!

 

[FBAddict]

You are the Data King. The CCS playoff power point structure has always been a beast, but with all the new augmentation and limitation rules, it is a nightmare. Hats off to you, my friend!

 

[colhenrylives]

THE BEST

 

[LLCCS]

Hey PALBOOSTER, What is the justification as to why PiedmontHills at 41.5 points is the 1 seed in D4 where the 8 seed Aptos has 40.5 and 7 seed Capuchino in D3 also has 41.5 points?

 

[Cal 14]

Salinas at D-Open #7 seed with 67
Valley Christian D-I #6 seed with 66.5

 

[thehookup55]

Hey PALBOOSTER, What is the justification as to why PiedmontHills at 41.5 points is the 1 seed in D4 where the 8 seed Aptos has 40.5 and 7 seed Capuchino in D3 also has 41.5 points?

A-League teams can only be slotted in D1-D3. Aptos and Capuchino are A League. Piedmonte Hills is B league.

 

[LLCCS]

A-League teams can only be slotted in D1-D3. Aptos and Capuchino are A League. Piedmonte Hills is B league.

Live Oak, Hillsdale, Branham, and Sacred Heart Prep are all A-League teams slated in the D4 Bracket currently.

 

[Cal 14]

A-League teams can only be slotted in D1-D3. Aptos and Capuchino are A League. Piedmonte Hills is B league.

No, A league teams can be in D 1-4.

See page 5 of the bylaws.

CCS bylaws

 

[thehookup55]

Live Oak, Hillsdale, Branham, and Sacred Heart Prep are all A-League teams slated in the D4 Bracket currently.

No, A league teams can be in D 1-4.

See page 5 of the bylaws.

CCS bylaws

haha my bad. I will stay in my lane and let PALbooster reply.

 

[Cal 14]

haha my bad. I will stay in my lane and let PALbooster reply.

I think there has been a lot of confusion over this new system. I doubt you're alone in this. I had to go back and read about this recently to clear up my own understanding.

 

[PALbooster]

CCS play-off projections with three weeks to go

Here are the CCS Play-off projections with three weeks left in the season. Only one change to the field with Kings Academy going in and Hillsdale going out.

Open/D1

Barring an upset where one of these teams’ losses to someone other than those in the Open/D1 division, this field looks set although seedings could change as they did this week. St. Francis win over SI moved them from 2 to 1 and dropped SI from 1 to 3. Everything else stayed the same.

8. Riordan 4-6 64 (8) at 1. St. Francis 9-1 81 (2)

7. Salinas 8-2 68.5 (7) at 2. Los Gatos 9-1 77 (3)

Winners of Round 1 play for open championship – loser of open championship plays winner of round two game below for D1 championship.

6. Valley Christian 5-5 69 (6) at 3. St. Ignatius 8-2 75.5 (1)

5. Soquel 8-2 71.5 (5) at 4. Serra 6-4 74.5 (4)

D2

Only changes from last week were Santa Teresa moving into D2 with Burlingame moving down to D3 after being upset by Kings Academy. Some small seeding changes.

8. Santa Teresa 9-1 49.5* (3 in in D3) at 1. Menlo-Atherton 8-2 61.5 (1)

5. Monterey 6-4 54.5 (5) at 4. Sacred Heart Cathedral 4-6 55.5 (4)

6. Menlo School 7-3 52.33 (7) at 3. Christopher 9-1 59 (2)

7. Palma 5-5 50* (8) at 2. Wilcox 6-4 59.83 (3)

Elevated to D2 as no B league team can play in D1 or D2

D3

Some movement here as Half Moon Bay was upset by Sequoia.

8. Piedmont Hills 8-2 41.5 (8) at 1. Carmel 10-0 59* (1)

5. Hollister 5-5 47.5 (5) at 4. Burlingame 8-2 47.5 (6 in D2)

6. Palo Alto 5-5 45.33 (6) at 3. Half Moon Bay 9-1 56.5 (2)

7. Capuchino 8-2 42 (7) at 2. Willow Glen 10-0* 51.5 (3)

Dropped to D3 as no B league team can play in DI or D2

D4

Kings Academy moved into the field instead of Hillsdale based ontheir upset win over Burlingame.

8. Live Oak 3-7 28** (8) at 1. Aptos 5-5 41.33 (1)

5. Sacred Heart Prep 3-7 32.5 (6) at 4. San Mateo 7-3 34.5 (5)

6. North Salinas 7-3 32.5 (7) at 3. Sobrato 8-2 37.5 (2)

7. Kings Academy (NR)** at 2. Branham 7-3 39 (3)

Elevated to D4 as no A league team can be in D5 and all C league teams must be in D5.

D5

Movement here came from South San Francisco’s win over Woodside, flipping their projected finish in their league.

8. Gunderson 7-3 20 (8) at 1. North Monterey County 8-2 32.5 (1)
5. Pioneer 6-4 24.5 (4) at 4. Alisal 6-4 25 (5)
6. Gunn 10-0 22.5 (6) at 3. South San Francisco 8-2 28 (7)
7. Woodside 8-2 22 (3) at 2. San Lorenzo Valley 10-0 32**
**Dropped from D4 to D5 as all C league teams must be in D5.

WCAL

St. Francis replaced SI as the favorite to win the league based on their 27-13 win this week. VC and St. Francis are the leagues only two undefeated teams. Serra nd SI are projected to win the third and fourth automatic spots with Riordan and Sacred Heart Cathedral projected to both get at-large bids.

PAL-Bay

Everything has gone as projected in this league. Los Gatos is a heavy favorite to win the league. Menlo-Atherton, Wilcox, Menlo School, and Palo Alto are projected to get automatic berths. If all projections play out Sacred Heart Prep would edge Carlmont for the last at-large berth.

Gabilan

Salinas and Soquel continue on a collison course for the league championship. Monterey is in good position for third place. This weeks Hollister/Palma game could decide fourth place and the final automatic spot. Aptos and the Palma/Hollister loser should both get at-large berths.

Mount Hamilton

Another conference that has gone as projected. Christopher favored to win the conference with Santa Teresa, Branham and Live Oak projected to get other three play-off berths.

PAL-Deanza

This league had a big upset as Kings Academy beat the top ranked team Burlingame. This league now projects to have tri-champions between Burlingame, Kings Academy and Capuchino. All three would get the league’s three automatic berths. Hillsdale is currently projected fourth and won’t get an at-large bid.

PAL Ocean

Another big upset here as Sequoia beat Half Moon Bay 21-20. Current projections have Half Moon Bay sharing the league title with San Mateo with both teams going to the play-offs. Carlmont is projected to be on the bubble for an at-large berth.

Mission South

No changes here. Carmel should win this league easily and North Salinas is still in the driver’s seat but will probably need a week 10 win over Soledad to cement this spot.

Mission North

No changes here as well. North Monterey County projected to win the league with Alisal getting the second spot.

Valley

Willow Glen is favored to win the league and finish the regular season 10-0. Sobrato is projected to be second beat will need to beat Leland to hold this spot.

Foothill

Piedmont Hills beat Pioneer and is a heavy favorite to win this league. Pioneer is still projected to get the second play-off spot.

El Camino

A showdown between the league’s top two rated teams was won by South San Francisco over Woodside. Woodside is still projected to get the league’s second play-off berth.

Santa Lucia

San Lorenzo Valley is a strong favorite to finish 10-0 and get this C league’s only play-off berth. Stevenson is projected as the second place team from this league.

Lake

This will be an extremely competitive league between Gunn, Jefferson and Saratoga. Gunn is a slight favorite to end 10-0 and has only given up one touchdown through seven games.

West Valley

Gunderson’s win over Evergreen Valley makes them a prohibitive favorite to be the league’s sole play-off representative.

 

[BvalBooster]

Awesome Job as always! A few of us were on the edge of our seats the last 10 days! Glad you have the new playoff system dialed in as well!

Is it too early to tell who the last 5 in or first 5 out would be? In terms of at large spots?

 

[FBAddict]

WCAL

St. Francis replaced SI as the favorite to win the league based on their 27-13 win this week. VC and St. Francis are the leagues only two undefeated teams. Serra nd SI are projected to win the third and fourth automatic spots with Riordan and Sacred Heart Cathedral projected to both get at-large bids.

I'm sure this league description will be corrected in next week's post, but I believe SF and SI are slated for #1 and #2 slots. It is Serra and VC that will likely fill the third and fourth slots.

 

[PALbooster]

Awesome Job as always! A few of us were on the edge of our seats the last 10 days! Glad you have the new playoff system dialed in as well!

Is it too early to tell who the last 5 in or first 5 out would be? In terms of at large spots?

All the teams that do not receive an automatic berth from their league are put into one large pool for at-large consideration. The top 15 teams from that pool with regard to their total CCS points are then considered, with the exception that there can be no more than 6 total (automatic and at-large teams) from any one league. The cal preps rankings are then used with the highest ranked team in this pool getting 15 points and the lowest cal prepared team getting one point. The CCS points are added tot he cal prep points and the top 5 teams are added to the play-off field and placed based on their combined point total and in accordance with other CCS rules governing divisions for A,B anC league teams. After seven weeks the at-large field projects as follows based on my calculations.

Pretty big break between top 4 and numbers 5 and 6. Another big break after that to to 7-9. If Mitty ends up in the top 6 in the WCAL they will replace one of the other WCAL teams. The WCAL can only get two at-large teams and they will be the 1 and 2 teams in the at-large pool. The same holds true between Palma and Hollister as long as they both beat Alvarez.

1. Riordan 4-6 31 CCS + 15 Cal preps = 46
2. Sacred Heart Cathedral 4-6 26.5 CCS + 14 Cal preps = 40.5
3. Hollister 5-5 23,5 CCS + 13 Cal preps = 36.5
4. Aptos 5-5 23.33 CCS + 12 Cal preps = 35.33
5. Sacred Heart Prep 3-7 20.33 CCS + 11 Cal preps = 31.33
6. Carlmont 6-4 21 CCS + 10 Cal preps = 31
7. Hillsdale 4-6 18 CCS + 9 Cal preps = 27
8. Soledad 6-4 18 CCS + 8 Cal preps = 26
9. Milpitas 6-4 19 CCS + 7 Cal preps = 26
10. Leland 5-5 17.7 CCS + 6 Cal preps = 23.7

Other 5 teams in pool are Leigh, Lincoln, Monte Vista Christian, Silver Creek. and Pacific Grove.

 

[PALbooster]

I'm sure this league description will be corrected in next week's post, but I believe SF and SI are slated for #1 and #2 slots. It is Serra and VC that will likely fill the third and fourth slots.

thanks - good catch - SI is projected for second with Serra third and VC fourth

 

[carmelkyd]

Difficult to define how much your hard is appreciated. I'm curious to know how much of each week's work you have been able to automate? Any idea how many hours you spend on each week's projections. From someone who used to help figure out just where "my" school was going to be slotted in the play-offs I stand amazed at how you are able to do this.

 

[PALbooster]

Difficult to define how much your hard is appreciated. I'm curious to know how much of each week's work you have been able to automate? Any idea how many hours you spend on each week's projections. From someone who used to help figure out just where "my" school was going to be slotted in the play-offs I stand amazed at how you are able to do this.

Carmel YKD - thanks for the question. Most of the work is in the set up at the beginning and I find that waiting until week 6 to start the projections means there is not much work week to week to change projections as cal-rep rankings are proving out to be about 85% accurate. There are five point columns

1. Schedule - This moves very little. All CCS teams are set as A, B or C teams at the beginning of the year. Most non-CCS teams are pretty clear whether they are an A, B or C team. There are always a couple of bubble non-CCS teams that I have to track manually every year that hover between some of the categories.

2. Wins - I project this out after week six and every week there are usually 6-8 "upsets" that require adjustments. The bigger ripple is where an upset just doesn't reverse a win or a loss for the two teams involved but rankings change enough to change the projections for a handful of teams going forward for the end of the year.

3. League Championship Points - Part of the projections are projecting out the 13 CCS league champions. If these stay stable there are no adjustments, but when the projection of a league champion changes then I have manually adjust which opponents lose or gain points. Another hard part here that takes some time is checking non-CCS opponents that project to be league champions. For example McLymonds forfeit means that they are now a likely OAL co-Champion instead of easily projected Champion and Riordan and St. Francis loss 0.5 points from the original projection.

4. Top 100/150 bonus points - Again once you get to week 6 this stays pretty stable, but I do check the changes in the list from week to week of both CCS teams and Non-CCS opponents of CCS teams. So as teams on the border go in and out of the top 100 or top 150 points get adjusted accordingly. There are usually only a few teams that go back and forth or out of the rankings this late in the season.

5. CCS Calpreps ranking - Every week I do this. With the top and bottom rankings staying pretty stable but there is usually a lot of change between 11-30 and these cause changes in seeding or division placements.

All in all it takes about 3 hours to set up in Week 6 and then about an hour to 1.5 hours. week after that to track the changes - much is automated, but tables have to be changed manually

 

[PALbooster]

CCS play-off projections with two weeks to go

Here are the CCS Play-off projections with two weeks left in the season. A few changes to the field this week as Leland goes in based on projection to capture second place in the Valley League by upsetting Sobrato. Hillsdale is projected into the field after beating Kings Academy (who is projected out) and Sobrato replaces Sacred Heart Prep as the projected final at-large team.

Open/D1

Barring an upset where one of these teams’ losses to someone other than those in the Open/D1 division, this field looks set although seedings could change as they did this week. SI and Los Gatos flipped seeds, but everything else stayed the same. All eight team’s results were as projected. Three match-ups this week between open teams will impact seedings. Soquel plays Salinas; Riordan plays Serra and St. Francis plays Valley Christian.

8. Riordan 4-6 65 (8) at 1. St. Francis 9-1 81 (2)

7. Salinas 8-2 67.5 (7) at 2. St. Ignatius 8-2 76 (3)

Winners of Round 1 play for open championship – loser of open championship plays winner of round two game below for D1 championship.

6. Valley Christian 5-5 68.5 (6) at 3. Los Gatos 9-1 76 (2)

5. Soquel 8-2 72.5 (5) at 4. Serra 6-4 75 (4)

D2

Seeding changes in this division as Wilcox, Christopher and Menlo-Atherton flipping the 1 through 3 seeds and the rest stayed the same. All the teams in this division also preformed to projections and teams in the bracket stayed the same as last week.

8. Santa Teresa 9-1 50.5* (8) at 1. Wilcox 7-3 60.5 (2)

5. Monterey 6-4 53 (5) at 4. Sacred Heart Cathedral 4-6 56 (4)

6. Menlo School 7-3 52 (6) at 3. Menlo-Atherton 7-3 58.5 (1)

7. Palma 5-5 50.5 (7) at 2. Christopher 9-1 59 (3)

* Elevated to D2 as no B league team can play in D1 or D2

D3

Same eight teams but some movement here as Half Moon Bay continued their downward slide with a loss to San Mateo

8. Burlingame 7-3 42 (4) at 1. Carmel 10-0 59* (1)

5. Palo Alto 5-5 44 (6) at 4. Hollister 5-5 48 (5)

6. Half Moon Bay 8-2 42.5 (3) at 3. Capuchino 9-1 49 (3)

7. Piedmont Hills 8-2 42.5 (8) at 2. Willow Glen 10-0 50.5 (2)

Dropped to D3 as no B league team can play in DI or D2

D4

A couple of changes here as South San Francisco moves up from D5 to D4 and Hillsdale comes back into the field in D4

8. Live Oak 3-7 29** (8) at 1. Aptos 5-5 41 (1)

5. Sobrato 7-3 33 (3) at 4. North Salinas 7-3 35 (6)

6. Hillsdale 5-5 31.5 (NR) at 3. Branham 7-3 38 (2)

7. South San Francisco 8-2 29 (3 in D5) at 2. San Mateo 8-2 39 (4)

Elevated to D4 as no A league team can be in D5 and all C league teams must be in D5.

D5

Leland jumped into the field in D5 and there were also seeding changes.

• 8. Gunderson 7-3 19 (8) at 1. San Lorenzo Valley 10-0 35** (2)
• 5. North Monterey County 7-3 25 (1) at 4. Woodside 7-3 25.5 (7)
• 6. Pioneer 6-4 23.5 (5) at 3. Leland 6-3 25.9 (NR)
• 7..Gunn 10-0 23.5 (6) at 2. Alisal 6-4 27.5 (4)

**Dropped from D4 to D5 as all C league teams must be in D5.

WCAL

All went according to projections with Saint Ignatius beating Valley Christian 20-13 in the league’s most competitive game last week. At this point the league’s top 5 teams have clinched paly off berths and Sacred Heart Cathedral can only be displaced in 6th place if it losses its last two games and either Bellarmine or Mitty win their final two games.

PAL-Bay

Everything has gone as projected in this league to date. The league’s only two undefeated teams square off this week as Wilcox travels to Los Gatos. Five of this league’s six teams get automatic spots. Sacred Heart Prep is currently on the wrong side of the at-large bubble projections and will likely need a win over Menlo-Atherton or Menlo School to have a chance to make the play-offs.

Gabilan

Soquel travels to Salinas this week in the game that will determine the league championship. The league’s 3rd-6th place teams (Monterey, Palma, Hollister and Aptos) continue to jockey for position, but absent an upset win by last place Alvarez over Hollister or Palma all four of those teams figure to make the play-off field.

Mount Hamilton

Another conference that has gone as projected. Leigh will have to pull of an upset over Christopher or Branham to have a chance at one of the four automatic berths currently projected to go to Christopher, Santa Teresa, Branham and Live Oak.

PAL-Deanza

Nothing is quite yet settled in this league with four teams jockeying for three spots. Current projections are for Capuchino, Burlingame and Hillsdale to make the play-offs with Kings Academy being the odd man out. But head-to-head match-ups between relatively closely ranked teams in Burlingame at Capuchino and Capuchino at King’s Academy will be determinative.

PAL Ocean

Half Moon Bay lost for the second week in a row to San Mateo 30-20. This leaves four teams hunting for two spots. San Mateo clinches the league championship with a win at home against Sequoia which after going 1-4 in non-league has been a surprise 3-0 in league to date. Another big match-up this week is Half Moon Bay hosting Carlmont. Regardless of this weeks outcomes the week ten match-up between rivals Carlmont and Sequoia will help determine the top two spots.

Mission South

Carmel cemented their spot as league champion with a win over second place North Salinas. The winner of this league’s match-up between North Salinas and Soledad will determine the second play-off spot.

Mission North

This is the only league where every team has lost a league game and every team has won a league game. This Saturday two of the league’s one loss teams North Monterey County plays at St. Francis of Watsonville. Alisal is the other one loss team and is projected to make the field as well as the winner of the above mentioned game.

Valley

Willow Glen is favored to win the league and finish the regular season 10-0. Leland beat Sobrato this week and can clinch a play-off berth with a win against Gilroy. Sobrato must beat Prospect and Gilroy in its final two games to try to hold onto the sections final at-large berth.

Foothill

Piedmont Hills is the heavy favorite to win this league. The winner of this week’s game where Overfelt travels to Pioneer is likely to get the second play-off spot.

El Camino

South San Francisco has clinched a play-off spot and is sole league champion with either a win at home over Homestead or a Woodside loss at Fremont. Woodside clinches the second league spot with a win over Fremont.

Santa Lucia

The league title will likely be decided by the winner of this week’s game between the league’s remaining two undefeated teams when Stevenson will travel to favorite San Lorenzo Valley.

Lake

Jefferson’s win over Saratoga means this league championship will get settled in week 10 when Gunn hosts Jefferson.

West Valley

Gunderson has clinched this league’s sole play-off spot and ends up as sole champion with a win in its final game against San Jose or another Evergreen Valley loss.

 

[colhenrylives]

CCS play-off projections with two weeks to go

Here are the CCS Play-off projections with two weeks left in the season. A few changes to the field this week as Leland goes in based on projection to capture second place in the Valley League by upsetting Sobrato. Hillsdale is projected into the field after beating Kings Academy (who is projected out) and Sobrato replaces Sacred Heart Prep as the projected final at-large team.

Open/D1

Barring an upset where one of these teams’ losses to someone other than those in the Open/D1 division, this field looks set although seedings could change as they did this week. SI and Los Gatos flipped seeds, but everything else stayed the same. All eight team’s results were as projected. Three match-ups this week between open teams will impact seedings. Soquel plays Salinas; Riordan plays Serra and St. Francis plays Valley Christian.

8. Riordan 4-6 65 (8) at 1. St. Francis 9-1 81 (2)

7. Salinas 8-2 67.5 (7) at 2. St. Ignatius 8-2 76 (3)

Winners of Round 1 play for open championship – loser of open championship plays winner of round two game below for D1 championship.

6. Valley Christian 5-5 68.5 (6) at 3. Los Gatos 9-1 76 (2)

5. Soquel 8-2 72.5 (5) at 4. Serra 6-4 75 (4)

D2

Seeding changes in this division as Wilcox, Christopher and Menlo-Atherton flipping the 1 through 3 seeds and the rest stayed the same. All the teams in this division also preformed to projections and teams in the bracket stayed the same as last week.

8. Santa Teresa 9-1 50.5* (8) at 1. Wilcox 7-3 60.5 (2)

5. Monterey 6-4 53 (5) at 4. Sacred Heart Cathedral 4-6 56 (4)

6. Menlo School 7-3 52 (6) at 3. Menlo-Atherton 7-3 58.5 (1)

7. Palma 5-5 50.5 (7) at 2. Christopher 9-1 59 (3)

* Elevated to D2 as no B league team can play in D1 or D2

D3

Same eight teams but some movement here as Half Moon Bay continued their downward slide with a loss to San Mateo

8. Burlingame 7-3 42 (4) at 1. Carmel 10-0 59* (1)

5. Palo Alto 5-5 44 (6) at 4. Hollister 5-5 48 (5)

6. Half Moon Bay 8-2 42.5 (3) at 3. Capuchino 9-1 49 (3)

7. Piedmont Hills 8-2 42.5 (8) at 2. Willow Glen 10-0 50.5 (2)

Dropped to D3 as no B league team can play in DI or D2

D4

A couple of changes here as South San Francisco moves up from D5 to D4 and Hillsdale comes back into the field in D4

8. Live Oak 3-7 29** (8) at 1. Aptos 5-5 41 (1)

5. Sobrato 7-3 33 (3) at 4. North Salinas 7-3 35 (6)

6. Hillsdale 5-5 31.5 (NR) at 3. Branham 7-3 38 (2)

7. South San Francisco 8-2 29 (3 in D5) at 2. San Mateo 8-2 39 (4)

Elevated to D4 as no A league team can be in D5 and all C league teams must be in D5.

D5

Leland jumped into the field in D5 and there were also seeding changes.

• 8. Gunderson 7-3 19 (8) at 1. San Lorenzo Valley 10-0 35** (2)
• 5. North Monterey County 7-3 25 (1) at 4. Woodside 7-3 25.5 (7)
• 6. Pioneer 6-4 23.5 (5) at 3. Leland 6-3 25.9 (NR)
• 7..Gunn 10-0 23.5 (6) at 2. Alisal 6-4 27.5 (4)

**Dropped from D4 to D5 as all C league teams must be in D5.

WCAL

All went according to projections with Saint Ignatius beating Valley Christian 20-13 in the league’s most competitive game last week. At this point the league’s top 5 teams have clinched paly off berths and Sacred Heart Cathedral can only be displaced in 6th place if it losses its last two games and either Bellarmine or Mitty win their final two games.

PAL-Bay

Everything has gone as projected in this league to date. The league’s only two undefeated teams square off this week as Wilcox travels to Los Gatos. Five of this league’s six teams get automatic spots. Sacred Heart Prep is currently on the wrong side of the at-large bubble projections and will likely need a win over Menlo-Atherton or Menlo School to have a chance to make the play-offs.

Gabilan

Soquel travels to Salinas this week in the game that will determine the league championship. The league’s 3rd-6th place teams (Monterey, Palma, Hollister and Aptos) continue to jockey for position, but absent an upset win by last place Alvarez over Hollister or Palma all four of those teams figure to make the play-off field.

Mount Hamilton

Another conference that has gone as projected. Leigh will have to pull of an upset over Christopher or Branham to have a chance at one of the four automatic berths currently projected to go to Christopher, Santa Teresa, Branham and Live Oak.

PAL-Deanza

Nothing is quite yet settled in this league with four teams jockeying for three spots. Current projections are for Capuchino, Burlingame and Hillsdale to make the play-offs with Kings Academy being the odd man out. But head-to-head match-ups between relatively closely ranked teams in Burlingame at Capuchino and Capuchino at King’s Academy will be determinative.

PAL Ocean

Half Moon Bay lost for the second week in a row to San Mateo 30-20. This leaves four teams hunting for two spots. San Mateo clinches the league championship with a win at home against Sequoia which after going 1-4 in non-league has been a surprise 3-0 in league to date. Another big match-up this week is Half Moon Bay hosting Carlmont. Regardless of this weeks outcomes the week ten match-up between rivals Carlmont and Sequoia will help determine the top two spots.

Mission South

Carmel cemented their spot as league champion with a win over second place North Salinas. The winner of this league’s match-up between North Salinas and Soledad will determine the second play-off spot.

Mission North

This is the only league where every team has lost a league game and every team has won a league game. This Saturday two of the league’s one loss teams North Monterey County plays at St. Francis of Watsonville. Alisal is the other one loss team and is projected to make the field as well as the winner of the above mentioned game.

Valley

Willow Glen is favored to win the league and finish the regular season 10-0. Leland beat Sobrato this week and can clinch a play-off berth with a win against Gilroy. Sobrato must beat Prospect and Gilroy in its final two games to try to hold onto the sections final at-large berth.

Foothill

Piedmont Hills is the heavy favorite to win this league. The winner of this week’s game where Overfelt travels to Pioneer is likely to get the second play-off spot.

El Camino

South San Francisco has clinched a play-off spot and is sole league champion with either a win at home over Homestead or a Woodside loss at Fremont. Woodside clinches the second league spot with a win over Fremont.

Santa Lucia

The league title will likely be decided by the winner of this week’s game between the league’s remaining two undefeated teams when Stevenson will travel to favorite San Lorenzo Valley.

Lake

Jefferson’s win over Saratoga means this league championship will get settled in week 10 when Gunn hosts Jefferson.

West Valley

Gunderson has clinched this league’s sole play-off spot and ends up as sole champion with a win in its final game against San Jose or another Evergreen Valley loss.

Another outstanding job. The Booster is a vital CCS resource. Where would we be without this savvy individual? That's right, we'd be floundering in the prep football darkness like pathetic lost souls seeking divine guidance.

 

[Niklas227]

Carmel YKD - thanks for the question. Most of the work is in the set up at the beginning and I find that waiting until week 6 to start the projections means there is not much work week to week to change projections as cal-rep rankings are proving out to be about 85% accurate. There are five point columns

1. Schedule - This moves very little. All CCS teams are set as A, B or C teams at the beginning of the year. Most non-CCS teams are pretty clear whether they are an A, B or C team. There are always a couple of bubble non-CCS teams that I have to track manually every year that hover between some of the categories.

2. Wins - I project this out after week six and every week there are usually 6-8 "upsets" that require adjustments. The bigger ripple is where an upset just doesn't reverse a win or a loss for the two teams involved but rankings change enough to change the projections for a handful of teams going forward for the end of the year.

3. League Championship Points - Part of the projections are projecting out the 13 CCS league champions. If these stay stable there are no adjustments, but when the projection of a league champion changes then I have manually adjust which opponents lose or gain points. Another hard part here that takes some time is checking non-CCS opponents that project to be league champions. For example McLymonds forfeit means that they are now a likely OAL co-Champion instead of easily projected Champion and Riordan and St. Francis loss 0.5 points from the original projection.

4. Top 100/150 bonus points - Again once you get to week 6 this stays pretty stable, but I do check the changes in the list from week to week of both CCS teams and Non-CCS opponents of CCS teams. So as teams on the border go in and out of the top 100 or top 150 points get adjusted accordingly. There are usually only a few teams that go back and forth or out of the rankings this late in the season.

5. CCS Calpreps ranking - Every week I do this. With the top and bottom rankings staying pretty stable but there is usually a lot of change between 11-30 and these cause changes in seeding or division placements.

All in all it takes about 3 hours to set up in Week 6 and then about an hour to 1.5 hours. week after that to track the changes - much is automated, but tables have to be changed manually

I appreciate you doing this PALbooster! 🫡

 

[PALbooster]

Question on PAL B league automatic berths for the group.

There is some chatter that the PAL has some discretion on wether they give two spots to both the El Camino League and the Ocean League or give three automatic berths to the Ocean League and one to the El Camino League.

CCS rules clearly permit leagues (like the PAL, BVAL, and PCAL that have more than one league in a division to divide things as they wish with two provisions. First, One spot must be preserved for the league champion and second that it is articulated clearly before the season in the league's by-laws. When I go to the Pal Football by-laws it pretty clearly states two teams rom each the Ocean and El Camino leagues, but the by-laws aren't dated and don't know if they were updated prior to this season. Based on some of the chatter by the coaches it seems they think that the PAL has some discretion on wether they give the third place team in the Ocean an automatic berth instead of the second place team in the El Camino.

Does anyone have any knowledge on this? Thanks