MaxPreps SJS projected playoffs

[robbt33]

I thought this was interesting:
http://www.maxpreps.com/news/jdKv6w...aquin-section-football-projections--nov-3.htm

For D1, I would project that Folsom will beat Elk Grove -- I don't see EG as having played anybody yet, but it will be a good game. You could argue Grant, but something seems to be missing at Grant this year. The winner is then projected to play either Clayton Valley or Bellarmine, and I think either EG or Folsom will win, going to the state championship.

For D2, you heard it hear first: I think Rocklin, with a 6-3 record, will upset Antelope, win the section and go to the Norcal title game! No idea who the norcal DII (or 1-AA?) playoff might be with.

Does Grant have an X-factor? Is someone coming back from injuries that could make a difference for the Pacers?
And for Rocklin, I'm a bit surprised at how close the game was with GB. Am I too hyped on the Thunder?

 

[CoachReber]

The thunder are legit, but depending on seeding watch out for Sac High to make a run even though they should be in D3

 

[North Bay Football]

First, these projections are not aligned with the reality of the Sections rules for eligibility for playoffs. If Vacaville only has 4 wins, they will NOT be in the playoffs. The only possibility of a 4 win team in Del Oro which plays in a league with 4 automatic berths. It is Win and you're in or lose and go home for Vacaville.

Secondly, the section purposely reseeds teams so that teams from the same league do not play each other in the first round. Thus....Pitman and Merced will not play each other. There will be teams that are moved around based upon the strength of their leagues and their opponent wins. Does anyone truly believe that Kennedy deserves to be seeded higher than Pleasant Grove? So, Kennedy is the third place team from the Metro and Pleasant Grove is the third place team from the Delta.

 

[robbt33]

The thunder are legit, but depending on seeding watch out for Sac High to make a run even though they should be in D3

Whats your take on how DIII will shake out? Sac High won't be in DII, right?

 

[CoachReber]

D3 will be Inderkum, Oakdale and Central Catholic...Sac High would have a legit chance but are pushed in D2 because we won our league.

 

[tlc94115]

First, these projections are not aligned with the reality of the Sections rules for eligibility for playoffs. If Vacaville only has 4 wins, they will NOT be in the playoffs. The only possibility of a 4 win team in Del Oro which plays in a league with 4 automatic berths. It is Win and you're in or lose and go home for Vacaville.

Secondly, the section purposely reseeds teams so that teams from the same league do not play each other in the first round. Thus....Pitman and Merced will not play each other. There will be teams that are moved around based upon the strength of their leagues and their opponent wins. Does anyone truly believe that Kennedy deserves to be seeded higher than Pleasant Grove? So, Kennedy is the third place team from the Metro and Pleasant Grove is the third place team from the Delta.

Maxpreps.com already has it wrong. Vacaville currently has 5 wins.....not 4.

 

[TheFolsomBulldog]

I believe Sac High will still be D3

 

[CoachReber]

how if the metro league is a D2 league?

 

[North Bay Football]

Speaking as a person who truly understands the SJS......Sacramento will be D2. Sacramento won their D2 League, and will thus be bumped AUTOMATICALLY into D2.

 

[North Bay Football]

http://www.cifsjs.org/sports/fball/2015-16info/footballformat_15.pdf

Check out Section D-3

 

[bulldogmgc]

Hmm ... if St. Mary's gets upset by Lincoln-Stockton on Friday, Lincoln-Stockton wins the TCAL and remains in SJS D1 for the section playoffs, while St. Mary's drops to SJS D2 for the playoff where they will have a better shot at winning sections this year than having to play in D1 with the likes for Folsom and Elk Grove. If this scenario plays out, I like St. Mary's chances to win section in D2, but I still think the Rams are a bit young this year to truly compete for a section title. Will Lincoln beat St. Mary's? Doubt it. But, it is a rivalry game and the Trojans have some weapons on offense and are not making the same mistakes they made early on in the season. The Rams defense is susceptible for a shootout based on games early on in the season, especially in the secondary against a decent QB. In the TCAL games the Rams have won quite easily lately, none of the opposing teams had a decent QB. Lincoln's QB will be a bigger challenge for the Rams defense than what they have seen against West, Tracy, Lodi, and Tokay. Hint: My pick'em this week with St. Mary's will not be in the 10 point spot. Then again, I could be totally off base and the Rams will destroy the Lincoln Trojans (again) and stretch their winning streak vs Lincoln to 12 games. Stay tuned.

 

[ThunderRam]

And for Rocklin, I'm a bit surprised at how close the game was with GB. Am I too hyped on the Thunder?

Yeah, the GB game shouldn't have been near as close as it was. But that's the thing with this Thunder team. They often get off to great starts only to stall out for large portions of the game. Their offensive play calling becomes awfully predictable and conservative once they have a lead. Also, some of the kids are simply making mistakes at key moments. Lots of dropped passes. Lots of crucial turnovers. Injuries also played a big factor up until the Del Oro game. They've been relatively healthy since, though. They wouldn't have lost to Whitney and would have made it a better game against Oak Ridge if healthy.

Rocklin has a lot of talent. But they are a big question mark come playoff time. If they gel and get hot, they could beat anybody. But if they continue to stall out and make key mistakes, they'll get upset by a team they shouldn't lose to.

 

[H.E.A.T.]

North Bay Football......you say you truly understand the SJS so can you explain your Kennedy vs PG scenario. If Kennedy is 3rd in the Metro then they would have to get an at large berth. The Metro only gets 2 auto berths. The Delta gets 4.

 

[North Bay Football]

Ok, I'm not 100% positive about what you want me to explain, but I'm going to make an attempt. My comment was regarding the seeding of the bracket by Maxpreps. Kennedy is the 3rd place team in a weak Metro League. Kennedy's record is 8-2. Pleasant Grove will be either the 3rd or 4th seed from the Delta depending on who wins the game between them and Franklin on Friday. Franklin's QB broke his leg or ankle a couple of weeks back, so I'm betting on PG. Anyways, when it comes time to seed the bracket, you will have Kennedy who is 8-2 but lost to the only two decent teams in the METRO. The opponent win count for Kennedy is 31 if you look at all 10 opponents. Looking at the Opponent Win Count of Pleasant Grove, you see 52. I think the Section will take a good hard look at the teams with 5-5 records and move them up or down the bracket accordingly.

It is true that Kennedy will get an at large berth and not an automatic. However, there is no doubt that based upon their 8 wins and their student population, they will be placed in D1. I hope that covers it.

 

[North Bay Football]

Here is how I see the D1 bracket shaking out.....but of course I always get it wrong, as the Section will create match ups that will create the largest gates and put the teams in the semifinals that they want.

1--Folsom vs 16--Gregori
8--Consumnes Oaks vs 9 Stagg (I move Stagg up to 9 because they are league champs and the Section will attempt to give them a first round home game.)

5--St Mary's vs 12--Pleasant Grove
4--Napa vs 13 Franklin

3--Oak Ridge vs 14 Monterey Trail (I believe the Section will move Oak Ridge to the #2 seed to put them in the bottom half of the bracket and away from Folsom who is in their league.)
6--Modesto vs 11 Turlock

7--Merced vs 10--Lincoln-Stockton
2--Elk Grove vs. 15 Kennedy

These matchups largely eliminate a lot of travel and create some interesting first round matchups in the 5-12 seedings.

Thoughts? This projection also has Monterey Trail making the playoffs as a 5-5 team because of their opponent win total.

 

[North Bay Football]

According to MaxPreps rankings, here are how the above teams rank:

1. Elk Grove
2. Folsom
3. Oak Ridge
4. Napa
5. St. Mary's
6. Consumnes Oaks
7. Franklin
8. Pleasant Grove
9. Turlock
10. Monterey Trail
11. Merced
12. Lincoln-Stockton
13. Modesto
14. Stagg
15. Gregori
16. Kennedy

Merced should be ranked higher than Turlock, as they beat them head to head. What all of this shows is that none of us truly can predict what the Section will decide when it comes to the brackets.

 

[robbt33]

North Bay, good work there. I like that. I'd love to see the Elk Grove vs. Oak Ridge game, if it shakes out that way. That would be a really good game -- OR might surprise Elk Grove.

 

[Macallan]

1--Folsom vs 16--Gregori
8--Consumnes Oaks vs 9 Stagg (I move Stagg up to 9 because they are league champs and the Section will attempt to give them a first round home game.)

5--St Mary's vs 12--Pleasant Grove
4--Napa vs 13 Franklin

3--Oak Ridge vs 14 Monterey Trail (I believe the Section will move Oak Ridge to the #2 seed to put them in the bottom half of the bracket and away from Folsom who is in their league.)
6--Modesto vs 11 Turlock

7--Merced vs 10--Lincoln-Stockton
2--Elk Grove vs. 15 Kennedy

I don't see Stagg being seeded that high (9 seed) based on what the section office did with Chavez last year. The SJAA is one of the weakest leagues in the SJS...and to that point:

• Chavez won their league outright,
• had seven wins,
• a non-league win over Sierra (strong in the VOL last year) and
• ended up being a 14 seed that traveled to #3 Granite Bay.

• Stagg will have six wins (if they win their game this week) to
• win their league outright, and
• their lone non-league win was against Lodi (2-7 overall).

Stagg's best case is that they played Foothill (Pleasanton)...but they still lost the game. I don't know how the section office will treat it.

Who knows what the section office will end up doing with the seeding, as the strict guidelines have basically been removed. God bless anyone that can figure it out, because I know that I can't do so. My best guess, would be that Folsom/Elk Grove will be seeded #1 and #2, and Napa/Oak Ridge will be #3 and #4, with Oak Ridge being on the opposite half of the bracket as Folsom. After that...well, I could see a lot of different ways the section office could go. We'll find out Saturday afternoon...