NCS-D1 Playoff projections

[EastBayFan]

After most teams have played 9 complete games, and a big crop of games coming up this weekend what’s everyone’s projections for this bracket. We obviously know who is going to win it, but any surprise teams they may get through round 1? Monte Vista San Ramon this week is going to be an intriguing matchup.

who avoids the dreaded 8 seed? Can Logan sneak into the top 5 with all the EBAL teams beating each other? Are we looking at a guaranteed Pitt/Liberty rematch? Can Freedom still qualify?

lots of topics. I see the bracket as

DLS
Pitt
Liberty
MV
Logan
Cal
SRV
Amador.

Cal being my surprise pick! Good luck to all!

 

[Paloma]

Looks like Amador’s loss to Heritage is going to come back to get them. Even though they’ll be league champions, they lost to Heritage while Logan and Cal beat Heritage. At least that seems to be the common denominator.

I don’t think Cal ends up being ranked higher than San Ramon since SR beat Cal.

 

[observer22]

After most teams have played 9 complete games, and a big crop of games coming up this weekend what’s everyone’s projections for this bracket. We obviously know who is going to win it, but any surprise teams they may get through round 1? Monte Vista San Ramon this week is going to be an intriguing matchup.

who avoids the dreaded 8 seed? Can Logan sneak into the top 5 with all the EBAL teams beating each other? Are we looking at a guaranteed Pitt/Liberty rematch? Can Freedom still qualify?

lots of topics. I see the bracket as

DLS
Pitt
Liberty
MV
Logan
Cal
SRV
Amador.

Cal being my surprise pick! Good luck to all!

Assuming MV beats SRV & Cal beats Foothill this week, this looks very close to the possible seedings. I do agree that SRV’s last second win over Cal should put them above the Grizz, but SRV got crushed by Foothill 23-3, and Cal would end up with a better overall record. That being said, I’d put SRV above Cal. Both should be ahead of AV, but I really don’t know how they’ll seed Logan as their schedule is pretty weak. Could be anywhere from 5 to 7?

It should be noted that if AV or Logan gets a first round game with either Liberty or MV, they’d get the home field as they would be league champs playing a higher seeded non-league champ in the 1st round.

 

[DLS Alum]

Assuming MV beats SRV & Cal beats Foothill this week, this looks very close to the possible seedings. I do agree that SRV’s last second win over Cal should put them above the Grizz, but SRV got crushed by Foothill 23-3, and Cal would end up with a better overall record. That being said, I’d put SRV above Cal. Both should be ahead of AV, but I really don’t know how they’ll seed Logan as their schedule is pretty weak. Could be anywhere from 5 to 7?

It should be noted that if AV or Logan gets a first round game with either Liberty or MV, they’d get the home field as they would be league champs playing a higher seeded non-league champ in the 1st round.

Well, for the sake of the seedings and the committee, everyone should hope Cal beats Foothill. If they don't, they will have lost lost their last 4 games in a row. All their wins were against teams with losing records (except CVC likely 5-5 after tomorrow and the Tahoe school which has a power ranking of a whopping 23.5). Also if they lose to Foothill their will be the AV argument that they should be the higher seed playing better later in the year having beat Foothill a week ago. Finally, I agree Logan will never be seeded at 5, the committee will never do that. They lost to a team from So Cal with a losing record, played one D-1 team all year (Heritage), half of their schedule have negative power ratings, and they don't have any signature wins. I get that the Mission Valley is one of the weakest leagues in NCS but the Colts have to schedule more than Dublin, Heritage, SL, etc. if they want a higher seed come playoff time. Sadly, I see the loser of MV/SRV being the 5th seed which means playing each other two weeks straight and then a date at Owen Owens the following week for the survivor..

 

[1315]

With nothing to say? Spooky.

 

[concrete17]

With nothing to say? Spooky.

.....well today is Halloween.

 

[1315]

.....well today is Halloween.

Crete is.....

 

[concrete17]

Crete is.....

View embedded media

....fair enough, smart as a 2 year old

 

[observer22]

OK, now that the regular season is about over, and barring a shocking Antioch victory over Pitt today, the D1 playoff bracket looks like this. The top 3 are pretty clear. After that it gets bumpy depending on what the committee does with Logan and AV, who are both "league champs" but neither have beaten anyone of any significance. Logan did beat 2-8 Heritage, who AV lost to, so that puts them ahead of AV. This is probably how it should go, but the committee may decide to move Logan past Cal, MV and/or SRV solely because they are league champs and have a better record, despite playing a much weaker schedule. I could possibly see Logan jump up a spot or 2, but not AV who should remain at 8 as the EBAL Valley is nowhere near the test that the EBAL Mountain teams face.

1) DLS 9-1 - Enough said
2) Pitt 9-1 - BVAL champ, Beat Liberty
3) Liberty 9-1 - Only loss was in OT to #2 Pitt, beat MV
4) SRV 7-3 - Beat MV & Cal, but embarrassing loss to Foothill
5) MV 7-3 - Beat Cal in OT, lost to SRV in OT, beat CVC & Granite Bay
6) Cal 7-3 - Beat CVC. lost last 2nd heartbreakers to MV & SRV in successive weeks.
7) Logan 9-1 - Best win was by 3 vs 6-3 San Leandro, who will be seeded lower than CVC in D2.
8) Amador 8-2 - Best win was by 7 vs. Foothill, who tied with CVC for last place in the EBAL Mountain.

For reference only - These are the 8 teams based on the CalPreps ratings which are heavily influenced by strength of schedule, but don't really factor in head to head.

1) DLS 69.3
2) Liberty 43.8
3) Pitt 42.6
4) MV 37.7
5) SRV 35.9
6) Cal 31.8
7) AV 25.1
8) Logan 22.4​

 

[Paloma]

Looks about right. I just wonder if James Logan bumps Cal. Cal has already lost to 3 of the top 5 teams listed here.

 

[observer22]

Looks about right. I just wonder if James Logan bumps Cal. Cal has already lost to 3 of the top 5 teams listed here.

Exactly, as did MV. But Logan didn’t play any of them, and has the lowest strength of schedule of all the D1 teams. If they move up to 6, then Liberty would have to travel to Union City since Logan won their low level league.

 

[Paloma]

Exactly, as did MV. But Logan didn’t play any of them, and has the lowest strength of schedule of all the D1 teams. If they move up to 6, then Liberty would have to travel to Union City since Logan won their low level league.

No argument here. Just think they have a case when considering human rankings and computer rankings together.

 

[observer22]

No argument here. Just think they have a case when considering human rankings and computer rankings together.

Yep, that's why I said that was a possibility. They'll get murdered by either Pitt or Liberty anyway, but a home game for them would be a joke.

And I do mean they have the lowest strength of schedule of all the D1 teams, not just the D1 playoff teams. -3 is about as low as it gets. You have to go deep into the non-playoff teams in D2 to find another one that low. But hey they've got the same record as DLS, Pitt and Liberty, so maybe they'll get a top 4 or 5 seed?

http://calpreps.com/2019/ratings/North_Coast_division.htm

 

[EastBayFan]

Was at the Pitt Antioch game, and talking to some coaches in attendance, they believe that 5-8 is a crap shoot. Pittsburg I think looked like they slept walk through the week, and really were probably looking past Antioch. Galli will get those boys right. From the fan base, I know they are anticipating another showdown with Liberty.

 

[Paloma]

Was at the Pitt Antioch game, and talking to some coaches in attendance, they believe that 5-8 is a crap shoot. Pittsburg I think looked like they slept walk through the week, and really were probably looking past Antioch. Galli will get those boys right. From the fan base, I know they are anticipating another showdown with Liberty.

I was wondering. I didn’t go because of I assumed it was going to be a blow out. That being said, I think Galli deserves some credit. I don’t think anyone (myself included) thought they’d win the BVAL this year. A bunch of hype was given to Liberty because of their prospects. Muldrow is probably the best overall player in the league and Johnson has been spectacular behind a very mediocre line. I’d say Muldrow is the league MVP with Zdroik as defense mvp. I wonder if Johnson beats out Butterfield for first team quarterback. He lead the league in all passing categories according to Maxpreps.

Really looking forward to the playoff seedings. I think every game but DLS in the first round can be determined by a touchdown or less.

 

[observer22]

OK, now that the regular season is about over, and barring a shocking Antioch victory over Pitt today, the D1 playoff bracket looks like this.

1) DLS 9-1 - Enough said
2) Pitt 9-1 - BVAL champ, Beat Liberty
3) Liberty 9-1 - Only loss was in OT to #2 Pitt, beat MV
4) SRV 7-3 - Beat MV & Cal, but embarrassing loss to Foothill
5) MV 7-3 - Beat Cal in OT, lost to SRV in OT, beat CVC & Granite Bay
6) Cal 7-3 - Beat CVC. lost last 2nd heartbreakers to MV & SRV in successive weeks.
7) Logan 9-1 - Best win was by 3 vs 6-3 San Leandro, who will be seeded lower than CVC in D2.
8) Amador 8-2 - Best win was by 7 vs. Foothill, who tied with CVC for last place in the EBAL Mountain.

The D1 bracket is out, and the committee got it right. Exactly as I had forecasted above.

http://www.cifncs.org/sports/football/2019_Brackets/FB1BRACKET.pdf

 

[MJ2014]

Pitt vs Liberty should be a fun one again. Rematch games are always interesting.

 

[observer22]

Pitt vs Liberty should be a fun one again. Rematch games are always interesting.

Exactly. That and the SRV vs MV rematch promise to be great games, with the winners punching a ticket to play Sparty and a chance to end their season. An opportunity which no other NorCal team will have, thanks to the Folsom Rule.

 

[Qazwsx123]

I was wondering. I didn’t go because of I assumed it was going to be a blow out. That being said, I think Galli deserves some credit. I don’t think anyone (myself included) thought they’d win the BVAL this year. A bunch of hype was given to Liberty because of their prospects. Muldrow is probably the best overall player in the league and Johnson has been spectacular behind a very mediocre line. I’d say Muldrow is the league MVP with Zdroik as defense mvp. I wonder if Johnson beats out Butterfield for first team quarterback. He lead the league in all passing categories according to Maxpreps.

Really looking forward to the playoff seedings. I think every game but DLS in the first round can be determined by a touchdown or less.

looks good however Muldrow had a great season BUT every team had to plan for Zdroik while he on defense on offense he dominated every player that went against him period.

MVP OF league P. zdroik
Offense MVP A Muldrow or Pierce Muldrow my pick
Defense MVP
1ST Team QB - Johnson ( however didnt finish Liberty game missed the next game and a half of Antioch Game

overall PITT ansd Liberty should have every spot for locked up

 

[Paloma]

Sad to hear about Liberty losing Justice Jackson to an illness. Prayers for a speedy recovery for the young man.

 

[northbayfb]

Sad to hear about Liberty losing Justice Jackson to an illness. Prayers for a speedy recovery for the young man.

Hadn't heard. Long term illness?

 

[Paloma]

Sounds like it won’t be life threatening but serious enough he can’t finish this season.

 

[1315]

As if they didn’t need any motivation in the opener. Some former Grizz coaches at Liberty stoked for Friday.