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NorCal Predictions D1-D5

Streak One

Streak One

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Nov 11, 2003
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Division I: Monte Vista over Bellarmine

Division II: El Cerrito over Serra

Division III: Weston Ranch over Riordan

Division IV: St. Pats over Central Catholic

Division V: St. Joseph over University
 
Would be a respectable but tough ending for WCAL with 3 of 5 division finals including teams from WCAL, not including league champ SF who's in Open. Of course these are just predictions by Streak One. Time will tell.

Who's the top league from top to bottom in NorCal Streak? In your opinion?
 
I think WCAL is always near the top of this list even in a down year. The Tri-County Rock Division is also very good. 3 Section winners. Those would be my top two picks.

The Valley Oak League is also better than people think.
 
Streak ,I think I agree with your picks for the most part but why Ec over Serra?
 
That was a close call for me. I took EC because they will have the best player and their record is misleading. Played a top schedule and could easily have 4-6 less losses.
 
If Serra gets past the Mt. Eden/Leland winner they most likely have to play Newark who has historically given them problems.
 
serdaprs said:
If Serra gets past the Mt. Eden/Leland winner they most likely have to play Newark who has historically given them problems.
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They have had some great great games in the past. Some of the best high school games I've seen that's for sure.
 
No chance of Bellarmine or Riordan getting to the finals. Curious how Streak One came up with those two predictions
 
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I'll play...

D1 Jesuit over Bellarmine
D2 Antelope over EC
D3 Weston Ranch over Manteca
D4 HMB over Central Catholic
D5 St. Joe's over University
 
NSBasketball said:
No chance of Bellarmine or Riordan getting to the finals. Curious how Streak One came up with those two predictions
Click to expand...

I think Bellarmine has a pretty good bracket to advance to the regional finals. Watched them against St. Francis on Friday and really like their guard play.

Riordan will have to find a way to deal with the size of a Manteca, but I think they are getting healthy and playing well. Good guard play can carry the day this time of year
 
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Shooter510 said:
They have had some great great games in the past. Some of the best high school games I've seen that's for sure.
Click to expand...
The year that Serra was Norcal champs, they beat Newark Memorial in overtime. Kyle Spain tied the game with a half-court shot ala Steph Curry. Great game. Serra went on to beat a Chris Oaks led team only to lose to Westchester, who was ranked #4 in the country that year.
 
Defender: It was a god game between Weston Ranch and O'Dowd. It came down to coaching and O'Dowd's staff flat out put coached Weston Ranch's staff. It was almost comical in the 4th quarter, I felt bad for the Weston Ranch kids, if they had a coach they would have pulled it out.
 
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BOD schedule strength 16.3. Weston Ranch SOS 14.3. BOD wins. WR ranked 31, BOD ranked 176.
Monte Vista Danville SOS 13.2 ranked 61 beat Oakland tech ranked 40, with a SOS of 10.8.
Dougherty valley ranked (at the time) 60, SOS 8.9 lost to Berkeley, ranked 118 SOS 11.1

On and on. for the most part, teams with lower ranks but stronger schedules seem to win in the playoffs. The way Max Preps ranks teams is really off. The irony is, even though Berkeley is still going and upset yet another team (Jesuit) Jesuit, DV and others, at the end of the year, likely will still be ranked higher than Berkeley.
 
I agree, SOS in the pre-season definitely helps in the post-season. Weston Ranch had a strong pre-season, their coach choked it off for them tonight.
 
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Coaches have an incentive, if they are insecure about their teams, to load up soft games early to get a high ranking. High Ranking seems to equal higher seeding during sections/playoffs. Since seedings can impact who goes on to Norcals, some smart coaches likely game the system. Freedom getting ripped off is the greatest example I can think of in recent memory.

I think SOS should be given greater respect than won loss. With due respect, Windsor was like 25 and 3, but had a SOS of 5. I suggest that if SOS is less than some number (say 8.5) that team cannot be ranked better than 100. Force teams to look for tough games if they want to EARN recognition. If they know they cannot compete, nothing wrong with playing a weak schedule. But that way they don't steal a higher seeding then they deserve and the seeding committee doesn't screw it up too badly because they need to follow rules respecting SOS.

Berkeley, who is ranked 110 right now, beat a team ranked 60. They then beat a team ranked 31. The teams they beat had a lower SOS. Maybe those teams needed to be seeded lower? Berkeley, for example, by rights should have been ranked better all year long.

having said all of this, it is compelling to see a team with a relatively crappy ranking (Monte Vista, Berkeley, BOD) win games and succeed deep into their respective brackets. It makes me respect the coaches who coach for the long term.
 
Those 3 teams (MV, Berkeley & BOD) also all happen to have great coaches. Which I'm sure factors into their willingness to challenge the kids with tough preseason games.
 
Good point observer. There probably is a connection between great coaches and the schedules they choose to prepare their teams. We are seeing that play out.
 
infofreak said:
BOD schedule strength 16.3. Weston Ranch SOS 14.3. BOD wins. WR ranked 31, BOD ranked 176.
Monte Vista Danville SOS 13.2 ranked 61 beat Oakland tech ranked 40, with a SOS of 10.8.
Dougherty valley ranked (at the time) 60, SOS 8.9 lost to Berkeley, ranked 118 SOS 11.1

On and on. for the most part, teams with lower ranks but stronger schedules seem to win in the playoffs. The way Max Preps ranks teams is really off. The irony is, even though Berkeley is still going and upset yet another team (Jesuit) Jesuit, DV and others, at the end of the year, likely will still be ranked higher than Berkeley.
Click to expand...
Riordan SOS 19 has a 12-16 record
 
Yes. I think riordan played a very tough schedule. Same with el ceritto. Lots of losses between them but also some good wins and obviously they now are benefiting.
 
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The whole "play a tough schedule" is a bit overrated. You coach your team and get them better. Not sure how scheduling losses can help any team. Back in the 80's Georgetown was notorious for their easy schedule, I believe the great Dick Vitale coined their schedule "CUPCAKE CITY". But it worked for them. I think a team gets more out of wins than losses.
 
NSBasketball said:
The whole "play a tough schedule" is a bit overrated. You coach your team and get them better. Not sure how scheduling losses can help any team. Back in the 80's Georgetown was notorious for their easy schedule, I believe the great Dick Vitale coined their schedule "CUPCAKE CITY". But it worked for them. I think a team gets more out of wins than losses.
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Agree. It's a combination of a challenging schedule and good coaching with the players' total buy-in to keep improving as the season progresses
 
A lot depends on what kind of team you will be putting on the floor that year. Last year BOD was loaded and played a murderer's row schedule. It worked out to their benefit as they were battled tested early and that no doubt helped them win the state Open title as the one best team in CA.

But take SRV this year. After winning the state D1 title with a great group of seniors, they took on a very tough schedule this year and didn't really have the team to benefit from it. Turned out, they missed the NCS playoffs by 1 game, and had they played a softer schedule would have easily made the playoffs and may have had more confidence as a team.

If you've got a team capable of making the semis at NorCal, then by all means load up that schedule and be battle tested for the grueling playoffs. Lesser teams must take it on a case by case basis depending on their talent level. I doubt Dougherty Valley knew just how good they would be this year when Faddel transferred to Monte Vista last summer, but they ended up winning their first ever league title without him. They didn't fare well in the playoffs though, and that could have been due to their soft preseason schedule with teams like Mt. Diablo, Antioch and Clayton Valley instead of challenging their kids.
 
my point is that coaches can game the current system by locking in at least a 500 record to make the playoffs, so everybody can get a trophy. Example is Cal High and College Park ranked like 400 or worese making the playoffs. They were blown out. The bottom two teams in that division were miles and miles worse than balance of the bracket. Why even have them in it when they really can't compete? I've grown used to watered down post seasons where you really need a couple of rounds to see who is real.

I do agree about the value of a couple of easy games in preseason to get confidence, game legs and all of that. But maybe three, not thirteen. And I'm just suggesting that if teams play easy schedules, they get penalized with low ranks. The low ranks might then impact seeding committees.

I also agree with Jordan about the need to keep getting better and buying in to each other and a system. But losing a game or three doesn't detract from that. Usually losses teach more than wins.
 
I agree with you on Cal High as I think that is exactly what they did in making the playoffs for the first time in many years. But you are off base with the College Park reference. CP was 10-2 in league and 16-13 overall, so they were 6-11 outside of league. They played non league games against teams such as Logan, Berkeley, Woodcreek, Campolindo and Heritage. I think their coach knew full well the DVAL schedule wasn't going to give them much trouble and he scheduled up to test the kids. They just happened to go up against DLS in the first round due to drawing the #16 seed and had virtually no chance. They had a young team and I would expect they will better next year for having played a tough preseason schedule this year, and I would expect they will also test themselves next year.
 
I stand corrected on College Park. I meant to reference their rank and not their preseason. It's hard to even criticize their SOS because their league outside of concord is pretty soft.
 
Riordan will beat Manteca, they are soft and lack real coaching. They were down 42-41 with 3:40 left in the 4th against an Albany team which had lost their best player 3 weeks before playoffs and whose tallest player was 6'0"

Their PG young came to the rescue hitting Steph Curry range 3's scoring 18 points 9/10 FT, and three 3's in that final 3:40. Add insult to injury their coach blamed the refs, in the newspaper, for the game being so close crying that the mighty 6'0 Albany post players were "too physical" Show some class and give the undersized and undermanned team some credit for battling their tails off.

Riordan by double digits
 
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TheyCall Me Coach said:
Riordan will beat Manteca, they are soft and lack real coaching. They were down 42-41 with 3:40 left in the 4th against an Albany team which had lost their best player 3 weeks before playoffs and whose tallest player was 6'0"

Their PG young came to the rescue hitting Steph Curry range 3's scoring 18 points 9/10 FT, and three 3's in that final 3:40. Add insult to injury their coach blamed the refs, in the newspaper, for the game being so close crying that the mighty 6'0 Albany post players were "too physical" Show some class and give the undersized and undermanned team some credit for battling their tails off.

Riordan by double digits
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First off, I certainly hope you're right! Soft or not Manteca has two 6'9" dudes so it'll be tough as Riordan isn't tall or long but they can certainly muck it up and play physical IF the refs allow. With Riordan it ultimately comes down to whether Chun, Galindo, and Stansberry get open looks and hit some shots.... I have absolutely no clue who's going to win the BOD vs SHC game either.....D3 definitely watered down this year.
 
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Ya Manteca PG wasn't soft, he's a tough lil sucker. Just disappointed to read the excuses made even though they pulled off the Win. It will be a good game, def hoping fiords not pulls it out.

BOD and SHC, now that's the game to watch. Talk about toughness. BOD has been battle tested all year for exactly this time of year and it's paying off. I don't know much about SHC but from what I've heard they battle their tails off too.
 
TheyCall Me Coach: I was waiting all night for your Riordan vs Manteca updates. You predicted Riordan by double digits. Always tough to win on the road in the playoffs. With that being said O'Dowd is rolling rt now, two straight road wins.
Manteca a little better than people think. Holding off Riordan rt now is no small task, they were playing their best basketball and peaking which was evident with their CCS Title. MaxPreps shows SHC was beaten 2x by Riordan this year. Should be a solid D3 NorCal Final.
 
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