PCAL- Playoffs Week 2

[RLS13]

PCAL Playoffs week 2-



PCAL did well for the most part last week. We are at least guaranteed some championship appearances in DII and DIII!



Biggest Surprise-

• Monterey- The “good” Monterey team showed up n the 2nd half and were able to take care of a strong SHP. Now we should get a really entertaining re-match with Soquel. If Monterey defense shows up, we could have one heck of a game.
• Palma. Not that they won, but they dominated Hollister. (Full disclosure I picked Hollister to win a close game.) But My goodness they came out and were able to control the line of scrimmage and also get WR1 involved. That is a very dangerous combination.

Anti Climatic-

• Greenfield- A great year for this C division champion. They were a product of the CCS point system, that had them up in DIV playing a very solid Branham team. Meanwhile there were 2 A division teams playing DV. But they get to hang a banner, and they own south Monterey County, going 3-0 Vs King City, Soledad and Gonzales!!
• Salinas- Similar bad luck the CCS point system (and Wilcox shenanigans?). They received the most unfortunate draw in all of the playoffs this year as the #8 seed to Serra. But Coach Zenk and the team should be proud bouncing back and going undefeated in the Gabilan. He has the built quite the program there. Safe to say Salinas is one of the top public-school programs in the CCS.
• Carmel- As discussed on other threads, they had their chances, but at the end of the day Soquel is the better team. I think Carmel being seed in DII is ok, I don’t buy the argument they didn’t belong there. They were one of the best B divisions schools in the CCS, they went 10-0 and they have a hell of an offense. In my opinion, top to bottom not a lot of difference between DII and DIII brackets. Carmel would have had just a tough time with Alisal, Palma or Scott’s Valley in DIII.

PAL vs PCAL

Scott’s Valley and Alisal - Both these teams went up to San Mateo county as “underdogs” and came back with victories. Scott’s Valley Defense was able to slow Aragon down in the first half with a safety and timely interception before half. In addition, the balanced offense was able to extend the lead in the 2nd half. Meanwhile Alisal used a walk off field goal to advance to the semi finals next week. It was not pretty but that Alisal offense contuse to just dominate the line of scrimmage.

This Weeks Games

DII
Fri 11/17 Monterey (CA) at Soquel (CA), 7:00pm CCS DII Playoffs- I picked against both these teams last week. Thought Carmel could out score Soquel and thought Monterey’s inconsistencies would catch up with them. I was wrong on both counts. This week is a rematch that Soquel won 21-7 in week 5. Unfortunately for Monterey this Soquel team might be better as the Santa Cruz transfers are fully integrated and contributing. Monterey played great football last week against a good SHP team. If they can continue to play that well on Defense, they will have a chance. But that consistently has been an issue for Monterey. Soquel 28-14

DIII
Fri 11/17 Palma (Salinas, CA) at Menlo-Atherton (Atherton, CA), 7:00pm CCS DIII Playoffs – If we were going on Strength of Schedule MA wins the game easily. Their non-league schedule was well put together (CAL preps 17.4 Average), Palma (-2.8) should take some notes. But obviously game is played on the field. If Palma can control the line of scrimmage and open up WR1 down field, like last week vs Hollister, this game will be a cake walk. Problem with Palma is they do not do that every week. MA is battle tested having played a much tougher non-league schedule and competing in the PAL Bay. (Tougher than Gabilan, this year). I say Palma outs it together for 2 weeks. Palma 28-21

Sat 11/18 Alisal (Salinas, CA) at Scotts Valley (CA), 1:00pm CCS DIII Playoffs – Ok bet the under on total points and the over on rushing yards. It should be a soggy grass field. And Scott’s Valley keeps the field thick (like Wrigley field when Ron Cey and Larry Bowa were on the left side). Good new for Alisal is their ground and Pound dive offense is perfect for that type of condition. The bad news is that Scott’s Valley defense is the best that they have seen. Not taking anything away from Scott Valley, but a win would be much bigger for the Alisal school and the East Salinas community. However, I think the SV defense is just too good. Scott’s Valley 21-7



CCS Playoffs
One last note on the CCS playoffs. I still think they are better than the other sections in NorCal with their playoffs. But going forward, they should use their current point system to set the field with the at large births and use it to help set the divisions. But then a committee made of regional representatives (or preferably NorCal prep Posters) should finish the divisions with an “eye” test. Including no A league participants below DIII. Move some teams around based on their schedule and quality of opponent. Not every A &B victory is the same in every year. Don’t use the “points” as the final determination of division rankings or alignment.



DV

Santa Teresa at Woodside
Leland at South San Francisco



DIV

Leigh @ Palo Alto
Branham @ Mountain View



DIII

Palma @ Menlo Atherton
Alisal @ Scott’s Valley



DII

Monterey @ Soquel
Christopher @ Menlo



DI
Los Gatos@ Saint Ignatius



Open
Wilcox @ Serra

 

[carmelkyd]

So no A league teams in D IV or V. But you're good with B league teams in D II and III. Not sure I understand the consistency of the logic.

There is something to be said for the fact that small schools don't have the horsepower to play with big schools. There is something to be said for the fact that small schools don't have the horsepower to play with the "football factory" privates. Big schools and "football Factory" privates simply have more top grade athletes than small schools.

They create equity leagues for a reason. Equity should exist in the play-offs. And not equity based on "points". Carmel beat an A league team that finished last in their A league. It beat 2 B league teams that had a combined record of 4 and 16. And they beat a C league team. And they came from 2 scores down in the 4th quarter to beat Alisal by 3. Carmel finished 10 and 0 and that should be hugely applauded. Not many programs finish 10 - 0. But a 10 - 0 schedule for a small school in a B league isn't the same as a 10 - 0 in the WCAL or even and 5 - 5 in the Gabilan. A league teams only in D I, II and III. B and C league teams in D IV and D V.

As always your analysis has been terrific. Thanks for your posts each week.

 

[RLS13]

So no A league teams in D IV or V. But you're good with B league teams in D II and III. Not sure I understand the consistency of the logic.

A largest % of teams fall in B leagues. Some maybe very good in a given year, those teams should be considered to be moved up to DII. That why I was ok with this Carmel team playing in DII. Similar to the undefeated Santa Cruz team a few years ago. I get the argument that they were not that strong and belonged in DIII, but at what point do you make that call?

But that's why there should be an "eye' test as well. Palo Alto should not be in DIV nor should nor should A division Leland and Santa Teressa be in a DV. A good Competitive B team in DII that's ok.

@carmelkyd Do you think Carmel should of been in slotted differently and why?

 

[thehookup55]

There is something to be said for the fact that small schools don't have the horsepower to play with big schools. There is something to be said for the fact that small schools don't have the horsepower to play with the "football factory" privates. Big schools and "football Factory" privates simply have more top grade athletes than small schools.

What small school got fed to a big school? What "football factory" privates are there?

 

[mrclarkinc]

So no A league teams in D IV or V. But you're good with B league teams in D II and III. Not sure I understand the consistency of the logic.

There is something to be said for the fact that small schools don't have the horsepower to play with big schools. There is something to be said for the fact that small schools don't have the horsepower to play with the "football factory" privates. Big schools and "football Factory" privates simply have more top grade athletes than small schools.

They create equity leagues for a reason. Equity should exist in the play-offs. And not equity based on "points". Carmel beat an A league team that finished last in their A league. It beat 2 B league teams that had a combined record of 4 and 16. And they beat a C league team. And they came from 2 scores down in the 4th quarter to beat Alisal by 3. Carmel finished 10 and 0 and that should be hugely applauded. Not many programs finish 10 - 0. But a 10 - 0 schedule for a small school in a B league isn't the same as a 10 - 0 in the WCAL or even and 5 - 5 in the Gabilan. A league teams only in D I, II and III. B and C league teams in D IV and D V.

As always your analysis has been terrific. Thanks for your posts each week.

Carmel lost to a small public school that was a C league team a couple years ago, B league last year, so not sure what the logic is here.

 

[Cal 14]

A largest % of teams fall in B leagues.

B and C football schools outnumber A football schools by about 2:1. I was told that the board of governors rejected a proposal to limit A teams to D-I thru III. These were the school principals who voted.

As much as a lot of fans may clamor for this rule, it does not appear that the schools themselves do.

 

[Cal 14]

So no A league teams in D IV or V. But you're good with B league teams in D II and III. Not sure I understand the consistency of the logic.

There is something to be said for the fact that small schools don't have the horsepower to play with big schools. There is something to be said for the fact that small schools don't have the horsepower to play with the "football factory" privates. Big schools and "football Factory" privates simply have more top grade athletes than small schools.

They create equity leagues for a reason. Equity should exist in the play-offs. And not equity based on "points". Carmel beat an A league team that finished last in their A league. It beat 2 B league teams that had a combined record of 4 and 16. And they beat a C league team. And they came from 2 scores down in the 4th quarter to beat Alisal by 3. Carmel finished 10 and 0 and that should be hugely applauded. Not many programs finish 10 - 0. But a 10 - 0 schedule for a small school in a B league isn't the same as a 10 - 0 in the WCAL or even and 5 - 5 in the Gabilan. A league teams only in D I, II and III. B and C league teams in D IV and D V.

As always your analysis has been terrific. Thanks for your posts each week.

Make sure you write John Devine to ask him to never rank Carmel higher than 5th or 6th in his PCAL rankings.

 

[Cal 14]

PCAL Playoffs week 2-



PCAL did well for the most part last week. We are at least guaranteed some championship appearances in DII and DIII!



Biggest Surprise-

• Monterey- The “good” Monterey team showed up n the 2nd half and were able to take care of a strong SHP. Now we should get a really entertaining re-match with Soquel. If Monterey defense shows up, we could have one heck of a game.
• Palma. Not that they won, but they dominated Hollister. (Full disclosure I picked Hollister to win a close game.) But My goodness they came out and were able to control the line of scrimmage and also get WR1 involved. That is a very dangerous combination.

Anti Climatic-

• Greenfield- A great year for this C division champion. They were a product of the CCS point system, that had them up in DIV playing a very solid Branham team. Meanwhile there were 2 A division teams playing DV. But they get to hang a banner, and they own south Monterey County, going 3-0 Vs King City, Soledad and Gonzales!!
• Salinas- Similar bad luck the CCS point system (and Wilcox shenanigans?). They received the most unfortunate draw in all of the playoffs this year as the #8 seed to Serra. But Coach Zenk and the team should be proud bouncing back and going undefeated in the Gabilan. He has the built quite the program there. Safe to say Salinas is one of the top public-school programs in the CCS.
• Carmel- As discussed on other threads, they had their chances, but at the end of the day Soquel is the better team. I think Carmel being seed in DII is ok, I don’t buy the argument they didn’t belong there. They were one of the best B divisions schools in the CCS, they went 10-0 and they have a hell of an offense. In my opinion, top to bottom not a lot of difference between DII and DIII brackets. Carmel would have had just a tough time with Alisal, Palma or Scott’s Valley in DIII.

PAL vs PCAL

Scott’s Valley and Alisal - Both these teams went up to San Mateo county as “underdogs” and came back with victories. Scott’s Valley Defense was able to slow Aragon down in the first half with a safety and timely interception before half. In addition, the balanced offense was able to extend the lead in the 2nd half. Meanwhile Alisal used a walk off field goal to advance to the semi finals next week. It was not pretty but that Alisal offense contuse to just dominate the line of scrimmage.

This Weeks Games

DII
Fri 11/17 Monterey (CA) at Soquel (CA), 7:00pm CCS DII Playoffs- I picked against both these teams last week. Thought Carmel could out score Soquel and thought Monterey’s inconsistencies would catch up with them. I was wrong on both counts. This week is a rematch that Soquel won 21-7 in week 5. Unfortunately for Monterey this Soquel team might be better as the Santa Cruz transfers are fully integrated and contributing. Monterey played great football last week against a good SHP team. If they can continue to play that well on Defense, they will have a chance. But that consistently has been an issue for Monterey. Soquel 28-14

DIII
Fri 11/17 Palma (Salinas, CA) at Menlo-Atherton (Atherton, CA), 7:00pm CCS DIII Playoffs – If we were going on Strength of Schedule MA wins the game easily. Their non-league schedule was well put together (CAL preps 17.4 Average), Palma (-2.8) should take some notes. But obviously game is played on the field. If Palma can control the line of scrimmage and open up WR1 down field, like last week vs Hollister, this game will be a cake walk. Problem with Palma is they do not do that every week. MA is battle tested having played a much tougher non-league schedule and competing in the PAL Bay. (Tougher than Gabilan, this year). I say Palma outs it together for 2 weeks. Palma 28-21

Sat 11/18 Alisal (Salinas, CA) at Scotts Valley (CA), 1:00pm CCS DIII Playoffs – Ok bet the under on total points and the over on rushing yards. It should be a soggy grass field. And Scott’s Valley keeps the field thick (like Wrigley field when Ron Cey and Larry Bowa were on the left side). Good new for Alisal is their ground and Pound dive offense is perfect for that type of condition. The bad news is that Scott’s Valley defense is the best that they have seen. Not taking anything away from Scott Valley, but a win would be much bigger for the Alisal school and the East Salinas community. However, I think the SV defense is just too good. Scott’s Valley 21-7



CCS Playoffs
One last note on the CCS playoffs. I still think they are better than the other sections in NorCal with their playoffs. But going forward, they should use their current point system to set the field with the at large births and use it to help set the divisions. But then a committee made of regional representatives (or preferably NorCal prep Posters) should finish the divisions with an “eye” test. Including no A league participants below DIII. Move some teams around based on their schedule and quality of opponent. Not every A &B victory is the same in every year. Don’t use the “points” as the final determination of division rankings or alignment.



DV

Santa Teresa at Woodside
Leland at South San Francisco



DIV

Leigh @ Palo Alto
Branham @ Mountain View



DIII

Palma @ Menlo Atherton
Alisal @ Scott’s Valley



DII

Monterey @ Soquel
Christopher @ Menlo



DI
Los Gatos@ Saint Ignatius



Open
Wilcox @ Serra

Fantastic write-up.

 

[NorCalSportsFan]

Great write-up RLS13!

I would add based on watching Menlo Atherton game - it is going to be a tough matchup for Palma. I think Palma could win but their defense will need to step it up. MA has some strengths that could be a tough matchup for the Chieftains. MA o-line is very big and physical, they have a bruising but nimble 5-11, 270 lb+ RB (Masuisui- yes 270 lbs) who is a huge surprise to me. He reads holes well and is a lad to tackle and really quick for his size. Plus they have a matchup nightmare in a 6-7, 230 TE (Alek Marshall) who lines up everywhere and is very quick and athletic and should be on every college radar. Not sure why he isn't signed and should have more offers than he has unless he plays basketball. And MA QB is very mobile and can throw the ball although some inconsistencies but live and strong arm. Hillsdale offense kind of reminds me alittle of Palma with very good passing QB and good WR that gave MA defense some problems. Palma offense looks to be faster and better running game. MA defense has some huge kids but has some holes. Key will be Palma defense being able to stop that huge RB who when he gets going is tough to tackle and very nimble and cuts well. The MA TE is going to be a tough matchup. Should be a good game, but Palma will need to bring its A game and not make the stupid mistakes and penalties they do at times.

 

[hsfb44]

There is a proposal by the PAL that A league teams don’t play D 5 and b league teams not above D3. That’s about right.

 

[FBAddict]

There is a proposal by the PAL that A league teams don’t play D 5 and b league teams not above D3. That’s about right.

Is this the same proposal that was presented to CCS Football Committee last year? Hopefully the proposal language is recrafted since it failed last year.

 

[RLS13]

There is a proposal by the PAL that A league teams don’t play D 5 and b league teams not above D3. That’s about right.

No A teams in DV is great, the downside is DIV will become the MT Hamilton championship bracket. (Its funny if you know the Mt Hamilton league)

I still think you need a path to put a good a B champ in DII. Programs like; Carmel, Half Moon Bay, Menlo (Maybe not anymore with the merger) and Scott's Valley, will sometimes have teams for 1 year that can compete at that level. It does not mean they should live in "A" leagues and compete every year.

Again we are kid of nit-picking a decent system (compared to other sections). It's better than going off of pure enrollment or whatever the SJS does. And it gives a path for 6 schools to get into the bowl season.

 

[NorCalSportsFan]

No A teams in DV is great, the downside is DIV will become the MT Hamilton championship bracket. (Its funny if you know the Mt Hamilton league)

I still think you need a path to put a good a B champ in DII. Programs like; Carmel, Half Moon Bay, Menlo (Maybe not anymore with the merger) and Scott's Valley, will sometimes have teams for 1 year that can compete at that level. It does not mean they should live in "A" leagues and compete every year.

Again we are kid of nit-picking a decent system (compared to other sections). It's better than going off of pure enrollment or whatever the SJS does. And it gives a path for 6 schools to get into the bowl season.

Make sure you write John Devine to ask him to never rank Carmel higher than 5th or 6th in his PCAL rankings.

I know he does it to sell newspapers, but he seems to weight winning records more than based on who the teams play and strength of schedule. At least he has a good story with Monterey this and next season.

 

[Cal 14]

I know he does it to sell newspapers, but he seems to weight winning records more than based on who the teams play and strength of schedule. At least he has a good story with Monterey this and next season.

Peninsula fans need to make up their minds.

Either Carmel should be a highly-ranked team amongst the PCAL and placed in a playoff bracket appropriate to that ranking *or* they should be no higher than the 5th place Gab team and placed in a lower bracket. They don’t get to have both a high-rank and low bracket. If they’re going to insist that their good W-L record justifies a top ranking, then they need to shut the *bleep* up about the bracket.

 

[carmelkyd]

I don’t know that I have insisted that a 10 and 0 record justifies a top ranking. My point has been that an 10 and 0 record for a B league team gives them a top ranking among B league teams. Perhaps there are some years where a top ranked B league team might compete with the middle teams in an A league but not very often. History is littered with B league champions getting promoted to an A league the next year. And getting their ass kicked. So let the B league and C league teams compete against each other in the playoffs. And be able to say proudly that we were a D4 CCS champ (which we know doesn’t mean we are as good as Serra, St Francis or Salinas).

 

[Cal 14]

I don’t know that I have insisted that a 10 and 0 record justifies a top ranking. My point has been that an 10 and 0 record for a B league team gives them a top ranking among B league teams. Perhaps there are some years where a top ranked B league team might compete with the middle teams in an A league but not very often. History is littered with B league champions getting promoted to an A league the next year. And getting their ass kicked. So let the B league and C league teams compete against each other in the playoffs. And be able to say proudly that we were a D4 CCS champ (which we know doesn’t mean we are as good as Serra, St Francis or Salinas).

There was the year-long controversy a few years ago where Carmel beat Salinas at the beginning of the year. By the end, though, it appeared clear that the Cowboys corrected most of their early issues and we the better team... clear to everyone except for a few Padre fans, that is. Devine had them at #1 pretty much all season in the PCAL area. They should have played in the CCS D-I playoffs that year like Salinas, right?

 

[FBAddict]

I don’t know that I have insisted that a 10 and 0 record justifies a top ranking. My point has been that an 10 and 0 record for a B league team gives them a top ranking among B league teams. Perhaps there are some years where a top ranked B league team might compete with the middle teams in an A league but not very often. History is littered with B league champions getting promoted to an A league the next year. And getting their ass kicked. So let the B league and C league teams compete against each other in the playoffs. And be able to say proudly that we were a D4 CCS champ (which we know doesn’t mean we are as good as Serra, St Francis or Salinas).

Many people will think your idea sounds good. The problem is that it won't work very well the way you describe. This is probably why the proposal failed CCS scrutiny last year.

CCS has 5 A leagues with 38 teams. there are 6 B leagues and 3 C leagues with a total of 61 schools.

Your idea means 73% of the A teams get into get into the playoffs and only 26% of the B and C teams get into the playoffs. If you count, even though there are more A teams in the playoffs than B & C teams now, you have to increase that number even higher. There are more B&C teams that get into the playoffs now.

There may be a ways to get more B&C teams in D4 and D5. But many ideas interfere with the CCS goal of aligning with CIF Bowl equity systems. The better answer is to remove the archaic CCS Power point system. It was a decent system when we didn't have better models to compare team strengths but now it just misses the mark. Properly done, we will see teams like Carmel slide down the food chain.

 

[FormerD1Backer]

There was the year-long controversy a few years ago where Carmel beat Salinas at the beginning of the year. By the end, though, it appeared clear that the Cowboys corrected most of their early issues and we the better team... clear to everyone except for a few Padre fans, that is. Devine had them at #1 pretty much all season in the PCAL area. They should have played in the CCS D-I playoffs that year like Salinas, right?

Carmel was the better team both nights they beat Salinas, right there in The Pit. Get over it Cal 14. They are a top-tier Monterey County public school program, as is Salinas. Nobody in their right mind thinks they are the better of the two when Salinas has 3-4 x’s the enrollment to draw from. I think that is the point.

 

[Prepwisdom]

Peninsula fans need to make up their minds.

Either Carmel should be a highly-ranked team amongst the PCAL and placed in a playoff bracket appropriate to that ranking *or* they should be no higher than the 5th place Gab team and placed in a lower bracket. They don’t get to have both a high-rank and low bracket. If they’re going to insist that their good W-L record justifies a top ranking, then they need to shut the *bleep* up about the bracket.

Cal- In fairness to Carmel- There hasn't been ( or wasn't ) an uprising over their placement in the brackets for CCS. They went about their business and played Soquel tough- and have nothing to hang their head about. For some reason- you are very sensitive to the small public schools ( Carmel) on the peninsula. Could they beat your large public school ( Salinas ) every year- of course not. But they do have their moments. In fact- Since 2000- Salinas and Carmel have played four times- with each team winning twice.

There was the year-long controversy a few years ago where Carmel beat Salinas at the beginning of the year. By the end, though, it appeared clear that the Cowboys corrected most of their early issues and we the better team... clear to everyone except for a few Padre fans, that is. Devine had them at #1 pretty much all season in the PCAL area. They should have played in the CCS D-I playoffs that year like Salinas, right?

As you know- playoffs were enrollment based then.

 

[carmelkyd]

Your idea means 73% of the A teams get into get into the playoffs and only 26% of the B and C teams get into the playoffs. If you count, even though there are more A teams in the playoffs than B & C teams now, you have to increase that number even higher. There are more B&C teams that get into the playoffs now.

This year there are 24 A teams in the playoffs. Just filling D1, 2 and 3. As long as A leagues get 4 automatic qualifiers and so many points that 3 and 7 teams get at large invitations you are going to have roughly 24 A league teams in the playoffs. Is that fair, I for one think NOT. But the only way you can get more B and C league teams into the playoffs is to change the number of auto qualifiers or points. And that ain’t gonna happen. So if 24 A league teams are going to qualifiers every year, put them all in D 1, 2 and 3. And if there is a year when fewer than 24 A league teams qualify then move the highest rated B league team(s) up to D 3 that year. Beyond that D 4 and 5 are not eligible for state bowl unless their coach has petitioned CCS to put their team into one of the three upper divisions before the playoffs.

 

[FormerD1Backer]

Cal- In fairness to Carmel- There hasn't been ( or wasn't ) an uprising over their placement in the brackets for CCS. They went about their business and played Soquel tough- and have nothing to hang their head about. For some reason- you are very sensitive to the small public schools ( Carmel) on the peninsula. Could they beat your large public school ( Salinas ) every year- of course not. But they do have their moments. In fact- Since 2000- Salinas and Carmel have played four times- with each team winning twice.

As you know- playoffs were enrollment based then.

That’s gonna leave a mark!

 

[carmelkyd]

Here’s a thought that might fix a couple of things. Implement a rule that a team with a losing record is not eligible for the playoffs. No matter how many points they have. Such a rule would likely eliminate A league teams in D 4 and D 5. It would also increase the opportunity for B league teams to be an at large pick. And frankly it would eliminate the embarrassment of teams with a losing record making the playoffs.

 

[FBAddict]

Here’s a thought that might fix a couple of things. Implement a rule that a team with a losing record is not eligible for the playoffs. No matter how many points they have. Such a rule would likely eliminate A league teams in D 4 and D 5. It would also increase the opportunity for B league teams to be an at large pick. And frankly it would eliminate the embarrassment of teams with a losing record making the playoffs.

I really don't like that suggested rule - it highly discourages teams from digging deep for better competition. However, if it could prove eliminating weak A teams in D5, I might like it. Frankly, if the win/loss ratio is a key factor, one might see teams like Serra and Carmel matched up.

Added features as you suggest steer a good seeding process from an equity model. If you compare the years the NS section used an equity model to present where they use a simple size and win/loss records, you get a lot of blow out games before you get to a final competitive game for the top teams. Bear this in mind as we enter the CRB and CSB games. How many in NS went on past the CRB. Last year only one team made it to the CSB games - the poorest performance of all sections including the SFS and OS sections.