PCAL week 10

[RLS13]

Week 10

Gabilan- So maybe Carmel can compete in the Gabilan? 1-3 vs the big four, about 2ft from being 2-2, the Palma game was a toss-up mid-way through the 3rd qtr. Salinas did crush them. Considering it has 31 players on its roster, not a bad showing for Carmel. I promise you Hollister believes Carmel belongs. There will be debate after the season if they should stay in the Gabilan, due to their very small Frosh/Soph program. (They Forfeited another game vs Hollister). But for now they proved they belong. That being said, this is Salinas’s division to lose. I don’t see it happening. Unless Salinas completely falls apart vs Hollister or Aptos, they should be the league champs in 2 weeks.

Mission- MVC is the best team in this division, they should clinch at least a tie after this weekend. But who finished 2-3? Looks like the injuries are starting to catch up to Seaside as they were taken down by Alisal last week. Soledad has both Seaside and Alisal to finish the season with. Monterey came together despite adversity and can cause some havoc with a win over Alisal this weekend. Should be an exciting end between 4 teams for the final 2 playoff spots.

Cypress- Only one team is guaranteed a post season berth. Some of the playoff models have upwards of 3 teams getting in from this “B-“ division. Like the Mission, the last 2 weeks here should be fun. This week’s game between Soquel and red-hot Santa Cruz (how the hell did they lose to PG?) could decide the champion. But if Soquel win’s we could have a 3-way tie. I am sure PALbooster has the Algorithm already in place to explain who winds up the champ. This will be fun to see if they can get 2-3 teams into the playoffs.

Santa Lucia- Only 1 team will make the playoffs from here and barring a miracle it will be PG. Nobody likes them so I won’t talk about them anymore. RLS will take on St. Francis for what amounts to the 2nd place game this weekend. It should be a really competitive game as both teams seem pretty equal. The good news is that every team in this division won at least 1 game. (Harbor had a non-league win). This is a good thing for these programs especially for Pajaro, Marina and Harbor. Keep on eye on Greenfield, they improved a lot over the year, and they have about 80+ kids in the program over 2 levels. These days that is a solid number.

I picked the wrong upsets last week 9-4, puts me at 98-33 for the season.

Fri 11/01 Watsonville (CA) at Gonzales (CA), 7:30pm – I think there is a way Gonzales can still sneak into the playoffs, They will need to win this week to do it. Gonzales 35-7

Fri 11/01 King City (CA) at North Monterey County (Castroville, CA), 7:30pm- North Monterey County needs to win this game and get some help from Soquel to cause a tie up top. KC will give them a fight but that NMC defnse is really good. NMC 24-14

Fri 11/01 Santa Cruz (CA) at Soquel (CA), 7:30pm- A Santa Cruz win, and the Cardinal will basically lock up the title. A Soquel win? Chaos, as it could be a 3 way tie. Get out your calculators and start figuring out CCS points and Cal prep rankings. Soquel 30-28.

Fri 11/01 Monterey (CA) at Alisal (Salinas, CA), 7:30pm- I have not heard if Monterey gets it’s coach back this week. Both teams will be fighting for their playoff lives. Alisal will be to big up front for Monterey. Alisal 24-21

Fri 11/01 Monte Vista Christian (Watsonville, CA) vs North Salinas (Salinas, CA) at Salinas Sports Complex (Salinas, CA), 7:30pm- MVC has played really well this year with only 1 loss. North Salinas is still trying to play 1 complete game. MVC rolls 35-7

Fri 11/01 Soledad (CA) at Seaside (CA), 7:30pm- What a great match up. Soledad may be peaking at the right time, while Seaside is a walking MASH unit. Next man up!! Seaside 24-23

Fri 11/01 Christopher (Gilroy, CA) at Alvarez (Salinas, CA), 7:30pm – These guys have been waiting all year to play each other, as they are tired of getting beaten up in the Gabilan. Christopher gets a win on the field. Christopher 21-20

Fri 11/01 Salinas (CA) at San Benito (Hollister, CA), 7:30pm – If Hollister can’t stop Carmel’s offense how can they stop Salinas? Look for Hollister to play with a chip on their shoulder, won’t be enough but they will keep it closer than expected for a little while. Salinas 35-25

Sat 11/02 Palma (Salinas, CA) vs Aptos (CA) at Salinas Sports Complex (Salinas, CA), 1:00pm- Afternoon game at Rabobank. Palma continues to try and spread the ball around. Aptos has no such problem as all their backs get a lot of carries. If Palma does not out think itself, they should win. Palma 30-24

Fri 11/01 Pajaro Valley (Watsonville, CA) vs Marina (CA) at Monterey Peninsula College (Monterey, CA), 6:00pm -This will be a very good match up. Both programs are struggling but they are evenly matched. Pajaro may have a little bit more depth. Pajaro 21-19

Fri 11/01 Greenfield (CA) at Pacific Grove (CA), 7:30pm- Upset special? Nope, PG will win. They are bigger faster and stronger than Greenfield. PG 35-14

Fri 11/01 Stevenson (Pebble Beach, CA) at St. Francis (Watsonville, CA), 7:30pm – RLS look to claim 2nd place in the rugged Santa Lucia division. St. Francis plays with more heart than any other team in the PCAL. This will be a good game, in the end I am taking RLS and their depth over St. Francis and their heart. RLS 24-20

 

[Cal 14]

Fri 11/01 Salinas (CA) at San Benito (Hollister, CA), 7:30pm – If Hollister can’t stop Carmel’s offense how can they stop Salinas? Look for Hollister to play with a chip on their shoulder, won’t be enough but they will keep it closer than expected for a little while. Salinas 35-25

You've made the same prediction for the last three Salinas games. I said the first time that it was going to be a 50-something to 20-something. Turned out it was even worse. The Carmel game would have been the same, had the Cowboys not substituted liberally.

Given that Salinas is well-rested, have the league title in their sights, and a memory of what happened last year, look for this game to be another 50-something to 20-something.

I don't know if anyone has noticed, but the Cowboys have cracked the top 5 in the CCS according to both Cal-Hi Sports and the SJ Merc/EB Times rankings.

 

[831ccschamp]

Week 10

Gabilan- So maybe Carmel can compete in the Gabilan? 1-3 vs the big four, about 2ft from being 2-2, the Palma game was a toss-up mid-way through the 3rd qtr. Salinas did crush them. Considering it has 31 players on its roster, not a bad showing for Carmel. I promise you Hollister believes Carmel belongs. There will be debate after the season if they should stay in the Gabilan, due to their very small Frosh/Soph program. (They Forfeited another game vs Hollister). But for now they proved they belong. That being said, this is Salinas’s division to lose. I don’t see it happening. Unless Salinas completely falls apart vs Hollister or Aptos, they should be the league champs in 2 weeks.

Mission- MVC is the best team in this division, they should clinch at least a tie after this weekend. But who finished 2-3? Looks like the injuries are starting to catch up to Seaside as they were taken down by Alisal last week. Soledad has both Seaside and Alisal to finish the season with. Monterey came together despite adversity and can cause some havoc with a win over Alisal this weekend. Should be an exciting end between 4 teams for the final 2 playoff spots.

Cypress- Only one team is guaranteed a post season berth. Some of the playoff models have upwards of 3 teams getting in from this “B-“ division. Like the Mission, the last 2 weeks here should be fun. This week’s game between Soquel and red-hot Santa Cruz (how the hell did they lose to PG?) could decide the champion. But if Soquel win’s we could have a 3-way tie. I am sure PALbooster has the Algorithm already in place to explain who winds up the champ. This will be fun to see if they can get 2-3 teams into the playoffs.

Santa Lucia- Only 1 team will make the playoffs from here and barring a miracle it will be PG. Nobody likes them so I won’t talk about them anymore. RLS will take on St. Francis for what amounts to the 2nd place game this weekend. It should be a really competitive game as both teams seem pretty equal. The good news is that every team in this division won at least 1 game. (Harbor had a non-league win). This is a good thing for these programs especially for Pajaro, Marina and Harbor. Keep on eye on Greenfield, they improved a lot over the year, and they have about 80+ kids in the program over 2 levels. These days that is a solid number.

I picked the wrong upsets last week 9-4, puts me at 98-33 for the season.

Fri 11/01 Watsonville (CA) at Gonzales (CA), 7:30pm – I think there is a way Gonzales can still sneak into the playoffs, They will need to win this week to do it. Gonzales 35-7

Fri 11/01 King City (CA) at North Monterey County (Castroville, CA), 7:30pm- North Monterey County needs to win this game and get some help from Soquel to cause a tie up top. KC will give them a fight but that NMC defnse is really good. NMC 24-14

Fri 11/01 Santa Cruz (CA) at Soquel (CA), 7:30pm- A Santa Cruz win, and the Cardinal will basically lock up the title. A Soquel win? Chaos, as it could be a 3 way tie. Get out your calculators and start figuring out CCS points and Cal prep rankings. Soquel 30-28.

Fri 11/01 Monterey (CA) at Alisal (Salinas, CA), 7:30pm- I have not heard if Monterey gets it’s coach back this week. Both teams will be fighting for their playoff lives. Alisal will be to big up front for Monterey. Alisal 24-21

Fri 11/01 Monte Vista Christian (Watsonville, CA) vs North Salinas (Salinas, CA) at Salinas Sports Complex (Salinas, CA), 7:30pm- MVC has played really well this year with only 1 loss. North Salinas is still trying to play 1 complete game. MVC rolls 35-7

Fri 11/01 Soledad (CA) at Seaside (CA), 7:30pm- What a great match up. Soledad may be peaking at the right time, while Seaside is a walking MASH unit. Next man up!! Seaside 24-23

Fri 11/01 Christopher (Gilroy, CA) at Alvarez (Salinas, CA), 7:30pm – These guys have been waiting all year to play each other, as they are tired of getting beaten up in the Gabilan. Christopher gets a win on the field. Christopher 21-20

Fri 11/01 Salinas (CA) at San Benito (Hollister, CA), 7:30pm – If Hollister can’t stop Carmel’s offense how can they stop Salinas? Look for Hollister to play with a chip on their shoulder, won’t be enough but they will keep it closer than expected for a little while. Salinas 35-25

Sat 11/02 Palma (Salinas, CA) vs Aptos (CA) at Salinas Sports Complex (Salinas, CA), 1:00pm- Afternoon game at Rabobank. Palma continues to try and spread the ball around. Aptos has no such problem as all their backs get a lot of carries. If Palma does not out think itself, they should win. Palma 30-24

Fri 11/01 Pajaro Valley (Watsonville, CA) vs Marina (CA) at Monterey Peninsula College (Monterey, CA), 6:00pm -This will be a very good match up. Both programs are struggling but they are evenly matched. Pajaro may have a little bit more depth. Pajaro 21-19

Fri 11/01 Greenfield (CA) at Pacific Grove (CA), 7:30pm- Upset special? Nope, PG will win. They are bigger faster and stronger than Greenfield. PG 35-14

Fri 11/01 Stevenson (Pebble Beach, CA) at St. Francis (Watsonville, CA), 7:30pm – RLS look to claim 2nd place in the rugged Santa Lucia division. St. Francis plays with more heart than any other team in the PCAL. This will be a good game, in the end I am taking RLS and their depth over St. Francis and their heart. RLS 24-20

Great work! However, the mission division has three automatic playoff bids.

 

[RLS13]

Great work! However, the mission division has three automatic playoff bids.

Yes I know. MVC will probably finish first in the Mission. But Soledad, Alisal, Seaside and Monterey (with lots of help) have a chance for the last 2 guaranteed spots.

In the Cypress only the Champion is guaranteed, but looking at PALbooster's and Prep2Prep models there could be up to 2 additional teams that may qualify as well.

 

[carmelkyd]

RLS...real good analysis.

831...think that is what he said. RLS said MVC gets the first spot and then who gets the "final 2 spots".

Cal...but calpreps ranks the Cowboys 10th in CCS - just behind HMB and just in front of Palma. Their QB is good (completing 67% of his passes) however the number two QB in the PCAL in terms of yards completes 69% and the number 3 QB completes 74%. In addition, the Cowboys do not have a rusher in the top 10 in the PCAL. So their offense lacks balance with 2,163 yards passing and 1,035 yards rushing. There is no doubt Salinas is the cream of the crop in the PCAL but I see them vulnerable in CCS.

RLS...let's not get ahead of ourselves putting Carmel in the Gabilan next year. They graduate nearly half of their 32 player varsity roster. Including their 3-year starting QB and All Star RB. And their JV (frosh/soph) team played only 5 games this year as they had to forfeit half their games. With 24 players on JV now...3 of them including their starting QB sidelined after the Salinas game with concussions. (Imagine the level of CTE concern going into next year.)

And even you will have to cry some tears for PG who graduates over 90% of their varsity team this year. (Not a typo...90%) Hope they have enough players to field a team next year. Winning the Santa Lucia this year should not get them forced up to the Cypress next year. Where a team plays in 2020 cannot simply be based on results from 2019.

 

[Cal 14]

Cal...but calpreps ranks the Cowboys 10th in CCS - just behind HMB and just in front of Palma. Their QB is good (completing 67% of his passes) however the number two QB in the PCAL in terms of yards completes 69% and the number 3 QB completes 74%. In addition, the Cowboys do not have a rusher in the top 10 in the PCAL. So their offense lacks balance with 2,163 yards passing and 1,035 yards rushing. There is no doubt Salinas is the cream of the crop in the PCAL but I see them vulnerable in CCS.

Calpreps had the entire PCAL extremely low to start the season. The top teams' ratings have been climbing over the last few weeks. If Salinas does manage to close out the last two games with wins, their rating will be in the high 20s or low 30s. Just a couple of weeks ago, they were 13 on the CCS list.

Richardson's stats depend on the source. Maxpreps has him with different stats. I don't know who is feeding that site, but it could very well be his dad. MBayPreps' data is also generally incomplete as neither Hollister, nor Aptos seem to be inputting all of their stats. Either way, completion percentage paints only part of the picture. He has nearly double the TD passes as anyone else in the league. Further, it hasn't yet mattered who the opponent is. Whether it's been someone really good like Clovis, or someone not as good like Christopher, the numbers have been huge.

As for rushing, no they don't have a top rusher, but they have 3 of the top 10 receivers listed on MBP. While I think they'd prefer to have better rushing stats, so far it hasn't entirely hindered them. Yes, the playoffs could be different.

I don't think that's their biggest vulnerability, though. I think it's run defense. However, I think Salinas can turn a game with just about any opponent into a shootout. In shootouts, a team with a good passing attack always has a puncher's chance, possibly more than a rushing team. We saw this against Palma, where the Cowboys won with the pass, but when the Chieftains were forced to come back with their air attack, they couldn't. A potential rematch with the Chieftains in the playoffs would be very interesting as that team remains very dangerous, in my opinion.

Whether Palma is the upper limit of where the Cowboys can rise, I don't know. They're going to be a borderline D-I/D-II team. While I would want the best possible path for a potential state playoff berth, I also have a morbid curiosity of how they would do against a team like Valley Christian. VC would certainly run on Salinas, but could VC stop the Cowboys passing game? I have no pretenses against believing that VC is either the #1 or 2 team in the section, but I am curious. I wish Salinas would start scheduling WCAL teams for non-league games... at least one of them.

 

[RLS13]

Kyd- PG should be put in the Gabilan next year, or maybe the WCAL. JK, I know thy are a senior loaded team and their JV has 4-5 Juniors who probably wont play next year. I would be shocked if they get moved up. But rest assured I will only be crying when RLS hoists that 2020-2021 Santa Lucia Championship banner.

I know all the stats about Carmel their numbers and their JV's. They do have their best WR/RB (fastest guy in the league), their best athlete (Byrne) and 3 of their 5 offensive linemen all coming back. They only lose QB1, RB1 and one of their 4 WRs. They will have about half of the defense back, Including a soph LB who will be really good over the next 2 years. The JV has some decent size on the line and 1-2 play makers who can help with some depth but not a lot there. Next years team may just be 1 notch below this years in terms of play makers, but a notch above in terms of line size and depth. All things being even, I would be surprised if they were not put back in the Gabilan. MVC should be joining them and Gilroy will be out.

Cal- I think Salinas can run the ball. They have talented enough RB's and they have a good (Big) line. They choose to pass because they can do it really well. It almost seem that they are trying to showcase too much of the QB. For playoffs they will need to balance out a little bit more as teams will be working to take away the pass. The exact opposite problem of Palma.

I agree with you their undoing in the playoffs may be their run-defense. Clovis torched them for over 300 yards. And in their 2 closest victories; Palma had over 300 and Alvarez 294 (these were all reported on max preps). Their next 2 opponents Aptos and Hollister are run first teams. They will try and do long sustained drives to keep that offense and QB off the field. They may not get enough touches to put up 50+ points.

 

[carmelkyd]

They do have their best WR/RB (fastest guy in the league), their best athlete (Byrne) and 3 of their 5 offensive linemen all coming back. They only lose QB1, RB1 and one of their 4 WRs. They will have about half of the defense back, Including a soph LB who will be really good over the next 2 years. The JV has some decent size on the line and 1-2 play makers who can help with some depth but not a lot there. Next years team may just be 1 notch below this years in terms of play makers, but a notch above in terms of line size and depth.

RLS...come on man! 11 has a long way to go to be a top level QB. He's enough of an athlete to imagine it happening but he lacks game experience behind center. Putting 26 at RB makes sense but significantly weakens the WR corps. Two of the Padres o-line this year who should be back next year tip the scales around 170 lbs. JV may have some size...but those freshmen will only play 5 games this year and have won 1 and might win 2...beat RLS and might beat Greenfield. And you predict they will contribute in a big way on varsity? Plus I don't know how you can suggest depth. 24 players on the JV roster and in past years maybe a 1/3 of those will not come out in their sophomore year. Camel is very likely to have trouble fielding both a varsity and JV team next year. Although I REALLY hope I am wrong.

The Gabilan should be a 6 team league. Schools with student populations under 1,300 should not be in the Gabilan. And next year Carmel should not be playing in the Gabilan. Teams should be placed in leagues based on what their team looks like next year, not how they did over the past 10 years. That goes for Carmel, PG, RLS and every other team.

 

[RLS13]

Carmelkyd, I agree I don't think they belong in the Gabilan either for the points that you made. My point is that next years team has the potential to be as competitive as this years. My point about depth was regard to only the linemen. The Varstiy could have only a 27-28 man (1 girl) roster next year. But if the Gabilan is going to remain an 8 team league you will have a hard time convincing the other PCAL coaches that Carmel is not one of the best 8 teams.

 

[Cal 14]

Carmelkyd, I agree I don't think they belong in the Gabilan either for the points that you made. My point is that next years team has the potential to be as competitive as this years. My point about depth was regard to only the linemen. The Varstiy could have only a 27-28 man (1 girl) roster next year. But if the Gabilan is going to remain an 8 team league you will have a hard time convincing the other PCAL coaches that Carmel is not one of the best 8 teams.

I think it would be hard to convince them that they're not among the top 6 teams.

 

[831ccschamp]

You've made the same prediction for the last three Salinas games. I said the first time that it was going to be a 50-something to 20-something. Turned out it was even worse. The Carmel game would have been the same, had the Cowboys not substituted liberally.

Given that Salinas is well-rested, have the league title in their sights, and a memory of what happened last year, look for this game to be another 50-something to 20-something.

I don't know if anyone has noticed, but the Cowboys have cracked the top 5 in the CCS according to both Cal-Hi Sports and the SJ Merc/EB Times rankings.

Carmel’s offense is legit. Never liked Carmel and never will. That being said Golden is the best OC in Monterey county.