SJS D1 Seeding Insight

[MTsince2004]

So I was trying to glean some insights in the Section's seeding thinking over the last few years. Specifically, I was looking to see where they might place the Delta League champion and ran across something kind of interesting (to me, anyway).

The second and even third place team in the SFL was almost always seeded ABOVE the Delta winner. The only exceptions since 2015 were when the Delta champ was undefeated (Elk Grove 2015) and in 2021 when Jesuit's only loss was to Folsom.

Now, to be fair, the SFL winner was always the #1 seed in D1 and an SFL team won all of the D1 section championships except 2016. A Delta League team only made one final in that time period. Obviously, the SFL is the measurably stronger league.

Additionally, the lesser SFL team was never put on the same side of the bracket as the SFL winner. The SFL runner-up was always a #2 or #3 seed from 2015 on.

That being said, if past is prologue, a one-loss Oak Ridge will be seeded higher than the Delta champ (Jesuit or Elk Grove). It also indicates that the Section wouldn't hesitate to put Oak Ridge at #3 above Monterey Trail and/or Central Catholic if they win their leagues.

Not saying it will absolutely happen--just that it has in recent years.

 

[mistark]

Its almost like they make rules up as they go... wink-wink, nudge-nudge.

 

[MTsince2004]

Its almost like they make rules up as they go... wink-wink, nudge-nudge.

Yeah. The hard part to research and reverse engineer is where the Cal Preps ratings were at at the end of the regular season. That's supposed to be a guide post, but it's definitely not a hard and fast rule.

To be accurate, SFL and Delta teams to some extent often have fairly high (inflated) Cal Preps ratings, even when they lose. It's just the way the algorithm is built. That system obviously creates an algorithm-bias problem for teams like Monterey Trail and Edison who are stuck in ill-fitting and low rated leagues.

 

[mistark]

It's a hard and fast rule when they want and completely disregarded when need be. It's their crutch and excuse to get the game$ they want.

 

[John Mellencamp]

It's a hard and fast rule when they want and completely disregarded when need be. It's their crutch and excuse to get the game$ they want.

Exactly, that's when they use the "take travel into consideration" if they can get a bigger gate.

 

[MTsince2004]

Exactly, that's when they use the "take travel into consideration" if they can get a bigger gate.

Yes, for sure. For example, if Elk Grove wins the Delta, I would guess that the Section would match MT and EG in the #3 vs #6 or the #4 vs #5 slots for the 2nd round.

Last year, both teams pulled off upsets to get to the semi-finals in D2. The Section knows EXACTLY how big that gate is compared to a less travel-friendly match-up.

 

[BigMann08]

Yeah the CIF is a joke! They make this thing up as they go and with no consistency.

 

[bulldogmgc]

Prior to 10/21, MaxPreps had the following seedings …

Division I Possible Bracket

**= have not met four-game win threshold
AE= anticipated Auto Entry
AL= anticipated At-large Entry

1. Folsom, AE — 2750

8. Lincoln (Stockton), AL — 2970
9. Sheldon, AL — 2553

4. Monterey Trail, AE — 2398

5. Jesuit, AE — 1940 (Anticipated to win a D1 league or would be D2)
12. Stagg, AL — 2435

3. Oak Ridge, AL — 2652

6. Central Catholic, AL — 378
11. ** Enochs, AL — 2394

7. Turlock, AL — 2608
10. Edison, AE — 2901
2. St. Mary's, AE — 780 (Anticipated to win a D1 league or would be D2)

Bubble team
Johnson, AL — 2510

On the night of 10/21, the following scores for above teams seeded …

#1 Folsom 55 Grsnite Bay 27
#2 St. Mary’s 38 Tokay 7
#3 Oak Ridge 17 Rocklin 21
#4 Monterey Trail 49 Grant 42
#5 Jesuit 21 Elk Grove 34
#6 Central Catholic 56 Manteca 49
#7 Turlock 56 #11 Enochs 16
#8 Lincoln (Stockton) 50 West 16
#9 Sheldon BYE
#10 Edison 40 Bear Creek 0
#11 Enochs 16 #7 Turlock
#12 Stagg 27 Linden 28
#BT Johnson plays Cordova on Sat, 10/22

Teams in bold above lost and possibly move down in the seedings.

* Jesuit’s loss to Elk Grove results in Elk Grove winning league and replaces Jesuit in D1 playoffs. Jesuit moves to D2.

Next weeks games (last reg season) with “my perspective” of NEW updated seedings for SJS D1 playoffs due to this Friday nights results …

#1 Folsom vs Rocklin … a loss to Rocklin swaps seeding with St. Mary’s. Folsom is NOT losing to Rocklin (per @pastyquick3).

#2 St. Mary’s vs Lincoln (Stockton) … a St. Mary’s loss to Lincoln should still result in the TCAL league title and staying in D1 due to league tie-breaker (scoring differential); also a loss may result in still retaining #2 seed over MT due to common opponent DLS success. St. Mary’s will NOT lose to Lincoln (Stockton).

#3 Monterey Trail vs River City … victory over Grant secure league title for Monterey Trail and moves up in seeding after Oak Ridge’s loss.

#4 Central Catholic vs Sierra … Central Catholic’s HUGE WIN vs Manteca launches them up in seeding but below Monterey Trail due to common opponent succes vs St. Francis. The Raiders have 4 losses but all of these teams (St. Francis, St. Mary’s, Serra, and St. John Bosco) are much higher ranked than the teams seeded below for D1.

#5 Oak Ridge vs Del Oro … league loss to Rocklin drops Oak Ridge in seeding. Another league loss for Oak Ridge to Del Oro could drop Oak Ridge down to #6 or #7 seed.

#6 Elk Grove vs Franklin-EG … Elk Grove’s HUGE WIN vs Jesuit secured league title and moving up to D1 for playoffs. Swapped places with Jesuit and moved down a seed due to Central Catholic’s even HUGER WIN vs Manteca.

#7 Turlock vs Gregori … might move up above Oak Ridge based on common opponent Rocklin success. But, 4 losses although to very good teams (Central, Clovis West, Manteca, and undefeated Downey) might not help move up past any of the above teams.

#8 Lincoln (Stockton) vs St. Mary’s … Lincoln will place 3rd in league unless a miracle occurs where they upset the Rams of Stockton by a huge margin (larger than Tracy’s loss to St.
in the rivalry game. Trojans have lost to Tracy, Downey, and Kimball. Another loss to St. Mary’s should not impact their current proposed seeding. Lincoln will NOT beat St. Mary’s at St. Mary’s!

#9 Sheldon vs Pleasant Grove … could possibly move up a seeding above Lincoln after Lincoln loses. But, doubtful due to SOS and league strength comparisons.

#10 Edison vs Franklin (Stockton) … Edison will win their league title undefeated in league play. But, the SJAA league is much weaker than the leagues for the teams seeded above them.

#11 Enochs vs Modesto <== must win for Enochs or not in playoffs (Johnson gets a playoff spot)

#12 Stagg vs Chavez … does losing to Linden knock Stagg out of the playoffs? Does Inderkum or Johnson replace Stagg? Probably mute since #12 seed starts playoffs against a much stronger #5 seed.

Bubble team: Johnson vs Natomas … Johnson will need Enochs or Stagg to be knocked out from playoff consideration.

Bracket -

#1 thru #4 have first round BYE’s

first round
Game 1: #5 vs #12
Game 2: #6 vs #11
Game 3: #7 vs #10
Game 4: #8 vs #9

second round
Game 5: #1 hosts Game 4 winner
Game 6: #2 hosts Game 3 winner
Game 7: #3 hosts Game 2 winner
Game 8: #4 hosts Game 1 winner

third round (semifinals) - higher seed hosts
Game 9: Game 1 winner vs Game 4 winner
Game 10: Game 2 winner vs Game 3 winner

SJS D1 section championship at Sac State (higher seed is home team)
Game 9 winner vs Game 10 winner

 

[bulldogmgc]

Looks like new CalPreps rankings might shake things up, …

Central Catholic now ranked above Monterey Trail and Oak Ridge …

http://calpreps.com/2022/ratings/California_all.htm

This would imply CC will be #3 seed while MT will be #4 seed and Oak Ridge #5 followed by #6 Elk Grove and #7 Turlock.

But, I still believe MT has edge over CC due to common opponent St Francis results.

 

[larry legend33]

If OR secondary doesn’t get healthy , DO will have a field day next week against them. There offense is much better than Rocklins. The way OR played last night I don’t see them beating a very good DO team.

 

[bulldogmgc]

If OR secondary doesn’t get healthy , DO will have a field day next week against them. There offense is much better than Rocklins. The way OR played last night I don’t see them beating a very good DO team.

Should OR be defeated by DO next week, do they drop in the seedings? If so, how far down?

 

[MTsince2004]

Should OR be defeated by DO next week, do they drop in the seedings? If so, how far down?

Turlock and Elk Grove are the obvious climbers. The really hard-to-answer question is how the Section will view Edison. Does league champion EHS get the bump above Lincoln and Sheldon, or does the Section rely solely on Cal Preps?

BTW, I truly appreciate Cal Preps. I love the website. I know that some of my posts seem kind of negative about it. I don't feel that way at all. It's just that there are subtleties to seeding that Cal Preps doesn't really try to address.

 

[bulldogmgc]

Prior to 10/21, MaxPreps had the following seedings …

Division I Possible Bracket

**= have not met four-game win threshold
AE= anticipated Auto Entry
AL= anticipated At-large Entry

1. Folsom, AE — 2750

8. Lincoln (Stockton), AL — 2970
9. Sheldon, AL — 2553

4. Monterey Trail, AE — 2398

5. Jesuit, AE — 1940 (Anticipated to win a D1 league or would be D2)
12. Stagg, AL — 2435

3. Oak Ridge, AL — 2652

6. Central Catholic, AL — 378
11. ** Enochs, AL — 2394

7. Turlock, AL — 2608
10. Edison, AE — 2901
2. St. Mary's, AE — 780 (Anticipated to win a D1 league or would be D2)

Bubble team
Johnson, AL — 2510

On the night of 10/21, the following scores for above teams seeded …

#1 Folsom 55 Grsnite Bay 27
#2 St. Mary’s 38 Tokay 7
#3 Oak Ridge 17 Rocklin 21
#4 Monterey Trail 49 Grant 42
#5 Jesuit 21 Elk Grove 34
#6 Central Catholic 56 Manteca 49
#7 Turlock 56 #11 Enochs 16
#8 Lincoln (Stockton) 50 West 16
#9 Sheldon BYE
#10 Edison 40 Bear Creek 0
#11 Enochs 16 #7 Turlock
#12 Stagg 27 Linden 28
#BT Johnson plays Cordova on Sat, 10/22

Teams in bold above lost and possibly move down in the seedings.

* Jesuit’s loss to Elk Grove results in Elk Grove winning league and replaces Jesuit in D1 playoffs. Jesuit moves to D2.

Next weeks games (last reg season) with “my perspective” of NEW updated seedings for SJS D1 playoffs due to this Friday nights results …

#1 Folsom vs Rocklin … a loss to Rocklin swaps seeding with St. Mary’s. Folsom is NOT losing to Rocklin (per @pastyquick3).

#2 St. Mary’s vs Lincoln (Stockton) … a St. Mary’s loss to Lincoln should still result in the TCAL league title and staying in D1 due to league tie-breaker (scoring differential); also a loss may result in still retaining #2 seed over MT due to common opponent DLS success. St. Mary’s will NOT lose to Lincoln (Stockton).

#3 Monterey Trail vs River City … victory over Grant secure league title for Monterey Trail and moves up in seeding after Oak Ridge’s loss.

#4 Central Catholic vs Sierra … Central Catholic’s HUGE WIN vs Manteca launches them up in seeding but below Monterey Trail due to common opponent succes vs St. Francis. The Raiders have 4 losses but all of these teams (St. Francis, St. Mary’s, Serra, and St. John Bosco) are much higher ranked than the teams seeded below for D1.

#5 Oak Ridge vs Del Oro … league loss to Rocklin drops Oak Ridge in seeding. Another league loss for Oak Ridge to Del Oro could drop Oak Ridge down to #6 or #7 seed.

#6 Elk Grove vs Franklin-EG … Elk Grove’s HUGE WIN vs Jesuit secured league title and moving up to D1 for playoffs. Swapped places with Jesuit and moved down a seed due to Central Catholic’s even HUGER WIN vs Manteca.

#7 Turlock vs Gregori … might move up above Oak Ridge based on common opponent Rocklin success. But, 4 losses although to very good teams (Central, Clovis West, Manteca, and undefeated Downey) might not help move up past any of the above teams.

#8 Lincoln (Stockton) vs St. Mary’s … Lincoln will place 3rd in league unless a miracle occurs where they upset the Rams of Stockton by a huge margin (larger than Tracy’s loss to St.
in the rivalry game. Trojans have lost to Tracy, Downey, and Kimball. Another loss to St. Mary’s should not impact their current proposed seeding. Lincoln will NOT beat St. Mary’s at St. Mary’s!

#9 Sheldon vs Pleasant Grove … could possibly move up a seeding above Lincoln after Lincoln loses. But, doubtful due to SOS and league strength comparisons.

#10 Edison vs Franklin (Stockton) … Edison will win their league title undefeated in league play. But, the SJAA league is much weaker than the leagues for the teams seeded above them.

#11 Enochs vs Modesto <== must win for Enochs or not in playoffs (Johnson gets a playoff spot)

#12 Stagg vs Chavez … does losing to Linden knock Stagg out of the playoffs? Does Inderkum or Johnson replace Stagg? Probably mute since #12 seed starts playoffs against a much stronger #5 seed.

Bubble team: Johnson vs Natomas … Johnson will need Enochs or Stagg to be knocked out from playoff consideration.

Bracket -

#1 thru #4 have first round BYE’s

first round
Game 1: #5 vs #12
Game 2: #6 vs #11
Game 3: #7 vs #10
Game 4: #8 vs #9

second round
Game 5: #1 hosts Game 4 winner
Game 6: #2 hosts Game 3 winner
Game 7: #3 hosts Game 2 winner
Game 8: #4 hosts Game 1 winner

third round (semifinals) - higher seed hosts
Game 9: Game 1 winner vs Game 4 winner
Game 10: Game 2 winner vs Game 3 winner

SJS D1 section championship at Sac State (higher seed is home team)
Game 9 winner vs Game 10 winner

MaxPreps updated projected brackets are in (as of 10/23), and matches my NEW updated seedings for SJS D1 playoffs listed above … Central Catholic now projected as #4 seed, Oak Ridge moves down to #5 and Elk Grove is introduced as #6, while Monterey Trail moves up to #3.

2022 Sac-Joaquin Section high school football playoff FINAL BRACKET projections — Oct. 29

MaxPreps News - Folsom, Manteca, Placer, Casa Roble, Sutter, Orestimba and Ripon Christian anticipated 1 seeds.

t.maxpreps.com

Tonight my wife reminds me that we have tickets to see comedian Jo Koy at Stockton Arena on Friday, 11/18. Looks like she’s going to have to find another date to take to see Jo Koy 😂 . Seriously, my younger son will cover for me. I will be watching the game on my phone with headsets inside Stockton Arena 🤓. She’s not to please with that direction, either. Maybe St. Mary’s gets upset at home vs Turlock or Edison and no stress in regards to my plans on 11/18. Uh no! 🤨

 

[CoachDViks]

Edison at #10? That's Tough, Cant help that TCAL voted edison NOT to join their League this year. So gotta play where they put us. Cant penalize us for that. we have won by 40 each game and EVERYGAME has been running clock by at least halftime. the 3 losses are to
1. Central fresno #1 in their league.
2. Folsom... well its folsom lol
3. Foothill who is 8-1 and Playing for their league championship tonight.

Should At Large teams deserve a higher seed than a team that wins League and made their schedule as Hard as they could?

I say Edison #7 Seed. and wouldnt be surprised if they dont put lincoln #10

FOR THAT GATE lol.

 

[mistark]

Good points on the Edison league.

Imo, the committee will look at the Rocklin Lost to Turlock(7 seed) and then Rocklin losing by 7 to Folsom. Edison and Folsom was one sided. Bases on recent history I don't think the committee will value a win over a North Section team the same as SJS power or bay area power team. Imo, I think the argument is at 8, 9 and 10 bc I think the section will reward Turlock's schedule over Edison, Sheldon and Lincoln.

Just my .02 cents though.

 

[CoachDViks]

Good points on the Edison league.

Imo, the committee will look at the Rocklin Lost to Turlock(7 seed) and then Rocklin losing by 7 to Folsom. Edison and Folsom was one sided. Bases on recent history I don't think the committee will value a win over a North Section team the same as SJS power or bay area power team. Imo, I think the argument is at 8, 9 and 10 bc I think the section will reward Turlock's schedule over Edison, Sheldon and Lincoln.

Just my .02 cents though.

Yea but i think its only fair to give a lil love to a League Champ no matter the league...

(FOR FUN)
ex: Rams go 13-4, 49ers go 11-6 Cowboys go 9-8 but win their division guess what

Cowboys Host a home game and 49ers are on the road.

 

[mistark]

You get a banner, hang it with pride in the gym
In all honesty I think you get the 8 seed & a home playoff game. CIF gets the gate but you get the snack bar, free nachos!

 

[CoachDViks]

You get a banner, hang it with pride in the gym
In all honesty I think you get the 8 seed & a home playoff game. CIF gets the gate but you get the snack bar, free nachos!

lol and our snack bar be boomin. Snack bar, food trucks, hot coco....

 

[bulldogmgc]

Edison at #10? That's Tough, Cant help that TCAL voted edison NOT to join their League this year. So gotta play where they put us. Cant penalize us for that. we have won by 40 each game and EVERYGAME has been running clock by at least halftime. the 3 losses are to
1. Central fresno #1 in their league.
2. Folsom... well its folsom lol
3. Foothill who is 8-1 and Playing for their league championship tonight.

Should At Large teams deserve a higher seed than a team that wins League and made their schedule as Hard as they could?

I say Edison #7 Seed. and wouldnt be surprised if they dont put lincoln #10

FOR THAT GATE lol.

Impressive wins in league and it’s unfortunate Edison was not voted in to join TCAL. Recall the years when Edison, St. Mary’s, and Lincoln were at the top of SJAA before TCAL formed. IMHO, Edison should be part of TCAL and swap spots with West HS (Tracy). West HS according to folks in Tracy I know have shared that West has turned into Tracy’s doormat, with most of the athletes in Tracy finding ways to attend Tracy HS instead. SJAA/TCAL should make this swap and classify SJAA as D2 or even D3 league, keeping the parity of competition sustainable. I realize the TCAL league is looking at parity based on rivalry basis (SM vs Lincoln; Tokay vs Lodi; and Tracy vs West), but I can see a more competitive rivalry being established between Tracy vs Edison, compared to a non-competitive rivalry with West. Other Tracy teams, Kimball and Millennium, are in different leagues. Why not do the same for West HS?

I think Edison’s projected seeding is largely due to the huge beating it took vs Folsom. Really hard to gauge how good Edison is based on that loss and going 0-3 in non league play versus winning big against terrible teams. Edison should have mixed in a Lincoln game for pre-league. Recall they use to have this game established. In fact, last year. Looks like replacing games with Lincoln and Lodi backfired.

I don’t see Edison to be seeded above Turlock with same reasoning mistark presented. As far as #8 or #9, that would imply a rematch with Folsom. Based on this game played earlier in the season, I can envision the committee avoiding that matchup. However, recall the times when league champs had home field to start the playoffs. So, a matchup of Edison vs Turlock but play at Edison would have the same teams playing each other only at Edison. So why not? Again, Turlock vs Rocklin and Edison vs Folsom says otherwise.

Beat Turlock and then beat St. Mary’s, then petition appeal to join TCAL. I’m guessing confidence is high that Edison can challenge St. Mary’s, given they played the Rams tough last year in the playoffs. Edison also played Folsom tough a few years ago in the playoffs. Unfortunately, I don’t believe Edison has a Raleek Brown who can change the game, else we would have seen a more competitive score vs Folsom. It is also unfortunate that Edison has ZERO competition in SJAA. That sucks!

Maybe the seedings get swapped and you get to host the first game. But, no matter what, you’re still traveling for round 2, and this year’s St. Mary’s team is a lot different than last year’s. Maybe Edison is different, too. But, I don’t sense it got better just because of it’s exaggerated wins in SJAA. Still, teams have to take the field and play the game. All I can say is Good Luck! 😎

 

[MTsince2004]

You get a banner, hang it with pride in the gym
In all honesty I think you get the 8 seed & a home playoff game. CIF gets the gate but you get the snack bar, free nachos!

That would be my guess, too. Just a guess, though. I don't really always understand the Section's reasoning even when I consider money as the main motivation. Edison at #8 vs Lincoln at #9 just seems right. Unless something crazy happens tonight.

Speaking of "crazy": Lincoln has to win by 10 or more points to knock St. Mary's out of D1. However, a Lincoln win could rock the seedings and create quite the re-shuffling.

A big game to watch is Oak Ridge vs Del Oro. It could be the difference between Oak Ridge having an argument for the #5 spot or being just happy to get a home game scenario.

 

[bulldogmgc]

That would be my guess, too. Just a guess, though. I don't really always understand the Section's reasoning even when I consider money as the main motivation. Edison at #8 vs Lincoln at #9 just seems right. Unless something crazy happens tonight.

Speaking of "crazy": Lincoln has to win by 10 or more points to knock St. Mary's out of D1. However, a Lincoln win could rock the seedings and create quite the re-shuffling.

A big game to watch is Oak Ridge vs Del Oro. It could be the difference between Oak Ridge having an argument for the #5 spot or being just happy to get a home game scenario.

I’m going to be like @pastyfastquick3 and shout out … St. Mary’s is NOT going to lose to Lincoln-Stockton! It might be a closer game just because of the rivalry. But, I have my doubts. I have seen Lincoln-Stockton play, and they have NO defense. Look for St. Mary’s to make a statement and score 50+ with a running clock. The W streak shall continue. I will have my track shoes on for this one!

That said, I really believe the top 4 seeds are set with Folsom, SM, MT, and CC, respectively. Now it’s up to these teams to weather the storm.

But, I’ll take my homer hat off and share that we still have to play the game and be prepared for anything. Ok, hat back on … GO RAMS!!! 😎

 

[bulldogmgc]

Take the #7 or #10 seed (not #8 or #9)! We know you want a shot at St. Mary’s (vs Folsom again). Really hope you get the #7 seed! Good luck!

 

[Larno51]

As for seeding Turlock not only has the win over Rocklin but also over Clayton Valley Charter, on the road, a team that is ranked in the top 20 in Northern California. Three of Turlock's losses were vs. current or former top 50 state teams and in the loss to Downey they outgained them and lost on a last second field goal.

 

[bulldogmgc]

With Oak Ridge beating Del Oro, the rankings have changed and the seedings may change again:

#1 Folsom
#2 St. Mary’s-Stockton
#3 Oak Ridge
#4 Monterey Trail
#5 Central Catholic
#6 Elk Grove
#7 Turlock
#8 Lincoln-Stockton
#9 Sheldon
#10 Edison
#11 Enochs *
#12 Stagg

* Enochs picked up its 4th win to qualify.

If these rankings dictate the seedingsnteresting first round matchups IMHO will be:

Sheldon @ Lincoln-Stockton
Edison @ Turlock

It’s quite possible, Edison and Sheldon swap seeds so that Edison plays at Lincoln, and IMHO, it should be Edison at #8 seed being league champs and they hosting Lincoln and brackets looking like:

#1 Folsom
#2 St. Mary’s-Stockton
#3 Oak Ridge
#4 Monterey Trail
#5 Central Catholic
#6 Elk Grove
#7 Turlock
#8 Edison
#9 Lincoln-Stockton
#10 Sheldon
#11 Enochs *
#12 Stagg

Any other swapping of seedings projected? Please chime in.

 

[larry legend33]

Huge win by OR. That should give them a couple home playoff games and the momentum to make some noise in SJS D1. Although I would be surprised if it’s not Folsom vs st marys for finals with a open game on the line for st marys.

 

[bulldogmgc]

Huge win by OR. That should give them a couple home playoff games and the momentum to make some noise in SJS D1. Although I would be surprised if it’s not Folsom vs st marys for finals with a open game on the line for st marys.

Just one home playoff game in the 2nd round. They will get a bye in the first round, and if both OR and St. Mary’s successful in the 2nd round at home, OR will visit Sanguinetti Field once again. Could this year’s playoffs play out like 2016? We shall soon find out. 😎

 

[larry legend33]

Just one home playoff game in the 2nd round. They will get a bye in the first round, and if both OR and St. Mary’s successful in the 2nd round at home, OR will visit Sanguinetti Field once again. Could this year’s playoffs play out like 2016? We shall soon find out. 😎

Ok thanks. Bye is huge for injuries. That will be fun although we would come in a lofty underdogs and have some big issues with your speed. But out line and running game is solid and we have 2 stud underclass TE that are great weapons. One is 6”7 soph with a some offers and tons coming.
We should plan to meet up. I think you guys have a good taco truck!

 

[larry legend33]

With Oak Ridge beating Del Oro, the rankings have changed and the seedings may change again:

#1 Folsom
#2 St. Mary’s-Stockton
#3 Oak Ridge
#4 Monterey Trail
#5 Central Catholic
#6 Elk Grove
#7 Turlock
#8 Lincoln-Stockton
#9 Sheldon
#10 Edison
#11 Enochs *
#12 Stagg

* Enochs picked up its 4th win to qualify.

If these rankings dictate the seedingsnteresting first round matchups IMHO will be:

Sheldon @ Lincoln-Stockton
Edison @ Turlock

It’s quite possible, Edison and Sheldon swap seeds so that Edison plays at Lincoln, and IMHO, it should be Edison at #8 seed being league champs and they hosting Lincoln and brackets looking like:

#1 Folsom
#2 St. Mary’s-Stockton
#3 Oak Ridge
#4 Monterey Trail
#5 Central Catholic
#6 Elk Grove
#7 Turlock
#8 Edison
#9 Lincoln-Stockton
#10 Sheldon
#11 Enochs *
#12 Stagg

Any other swapping of seedings projected? Please chime in.

Curious if you think MT goes ahead of OR? Why would OR be #3? MT League winner also. What am I’m missing .

 

[MTsince2004]

Johnson won their league (three-way tie) and will be in D1. This will bump either Stagg or Enochs, depending on which school is lower rated when the algorithm finishes baking this afternoon.

 

[MTsince2004]

Curious if you think MT goes ahead of OR? Why would OR be #3? MT League winner also. What am I’m missing .

Will DeBoard was quoted last week as saying that he sees the top four seeds as Folsom, St. Mary's, MT, and CC. However, that was last week.

I would not be shocked at all if the Section puts Oak Ridge at #3. However, that would do a huge disservice to everything the Section says about pre-league scheduling. If the Section is going to effectively penalize teams like CC and MT for scheduling above their heads while rewarding OR's run-of-the-mill pre-season games, then the incentive to schedule tough will be hollow praise.

The problem is made worse in MT's case because there is simply no way to raise a Cal Preps rating in league play, and MT most definitely did not choose their own league. In the algorithm, the benefits of losing in the SFL outweigh the benefits of dominating the Metro.

The league alignment problem is real. Look at D2 where Whitney hasn't won a game in 42 days, but is much higher rated than a resurgent 7-3 Laguna Creek team. Woodcreek will sneak in as the last D2 team, in large part due to playing in a mid-level league. LC and WC are fairly similar when comparing scores with common opponents. However, the benefits to Woodcreek in league play are the difference in the two teams' ratings.

 

[mistark]

Curious if you think MT goes ahead of OR? Why would OR be #3? MT League winner also. What am I’m missing .

I think they go off calpreps rating and OR goes above MT. Imo MT deserves it for the preseason though.

 

[MTsince2004]

I think they go off calpreps rating and OR goes above MT. Imo MT deserves it for the preseason though.

I know for a fact that the MT coaching staff wouldn't blink if they ended up as low as #5. They seemed to be mildly amused by all of the seedings chatter that goes on around them. Just send them the game film and tell them where to be on Friday.

Fortunately, Their mindset about scheduling is that the extra tough pre-league prepares them in a way that league play simply cannot under the circumstances. It's actually not much of a Cal Preps thing.

However, for the Section, it is a benefit to have a Title 1 public school going out there scheduling and competing with top-level local programs and parochial powers from the Bay Area. All those factors matter.

 

[bulldogmgc]

Ok thanks. Bye is huge for injuries. That will be fun although we would come in a lofty underdogs and have some big issues with your speed. But out line and running game is solid and we have 2 stud underclass TE that are great weapons. One is 6”7 soph with a some offers and tons coming.
We should plan to meet up. I think you guys have a good taco truck!

Hey Larry, your TE’s will be HUGE weapons vs the Rams. Rams D struggled against the tall TE out of DLS. I anticipate Oak Ridge will put points on the board vs St. Mary’s. I’m just not sure OR, or if any offense in NorCal, will keep up with the scoring from SM or be able to shut it down.

Bit of sad news … I work the chains for St. Mary’s home games and have been doing so for 12 years. But, my wife reminded me last week (thought I shared in a prior thread) that we have tickets to see comedian, Jo Koy, at the Stockton Arena on 11/18. When I shared with her that I may have chain gang duty, she gave me that “look”. You know, the “look” 😂 ! So, unfortunately, I’m going to miss this game “in person” and will resort to watching it stream on my phone while inside the Stockton Arena. I anticipate getting more of the “look” when I do so. My concern is that there will be poor internet coverage inside the arena.

In regards to the taco truck, it’s actually a food truck owned/operated by former St Mary’s lineman, JP Nisby, called Patrick’s House Catering. They serve a house burger, po’ boy sandwich, shrimp, brisket, etc. He was in the same class as my eldest son. His wife works for St. Mary’s and his mom, Dr. Hatton, is my wife’s OB/GYN doctor. His cousin is Justin Davis (former Lincoln-Stockton RB that played for USC and the LA Rams). Confident it will be at the game for playoffs. Recommend checking it out. Enjoy!

If anything changes, ie. Jo Koy concert gets rescheduled, I will definitely let you know. Otherwise, and I say this to all fellow bloggers here, if your ever at a St. Mary’s home game, please feel free to look for me on the opposing team’s sideline working the chains. I will be the “bald” guy with a gray beard and mustache. You will know it’s me before kickoff when I take off my hat for the National Anthem, 😂. Can also find me at halftime heading to the snack bar for my FREE hot dog/water, 😂.

 

[Macallan]

This is how I have it currently, according to the SJS Playoff Format and calpreps.com. (Side note, there is no portion of the SJS Playoff format that spells out seeding).

Seed	CalPreps	Team	Enrollment
1	59.7	Folsom	2750
2	52.4	St. Mary's	780
3	40.9	Oak Ridge	2652
4	38.6	Monterey Trail	2398
5	38	Central Catholic	378
6	27.5	Elk Grove	1940
7	25.7	Turlock	2608
8	23.3	Lincoln	2970
9	18.8	Sheldon	2553
10	14.9	Edison	2901
11	7.5	Inderkum	2347
12	-13.6	Johnson***	2510

 

[bulldogmgc]

My bad! I agree, MT should get credit for pre-league scheduling and finishing as undefeated league champs, similar to Edison getting credit for their showing, even though Edison’s pre-league performance was not as good. Likewise, Central Catholic. I still think that win vs Manteca was HUGE especially seeing what Manteca did to Oakdale. Updated seeding with additional swapping of Oak Ridge (back to 5 seed), but will be really curious to see how the committee aligns picks 3-5:
#1 Folsom
#2 St. Mary’s-Stockton
#3 Monterey Trail ***
#4 Central Catholic ***
#5 Oak Ridge
#6 Elk Grove
#7 Turlock
#8 Edison
#9 Lincoln-Stockton
#10 Sheldon
#11 Johnson **
#12 Enochs

* Enochs picked up its 4th win to qualify.

** Johnson falls below Enochs and Stagg in Calpreps ratings, but wins its league, and possible should be seeded above Enochs and Stagg. Stagg gets bumped.

*** Seeds 3-5 along with where Edison gets seeded are IMHO really up in the air.

Selection and Seeding announcement this Sunday, 10/30, at 1:30pm. Created new thread.

 

[larry legend33]

Hey Larry, your TE’s will be HUGE weapons vs the Rams. Rams D struggled against the tall TE out of DLS. I anticipate Oak Ridge will put points on the board vs St. Mary’s. I’m just not sure OR, or if any offense in NorCal, will keep up with the scoring from SM or be able to shut it down.

Bit of sad news … I work the chains for St. Mary’s home games and have been doing so for 12 years. But, my wife reminded me last week (thought I shared in a prior thread) that we have tickets to see comedian, Jo Koy, at the Stockton Arena on 11/18. When I shared with her that I may have chain gang duty, she gave me that “look”. You know, the “look” 😂 ! So, unfortunately, I’m going to miss this game “in person” and will resort to watching it stream on my phone while inside the Stockton Arena. I anticipate getting more of the “look” when I do so. My concern is that there will be poor internet coverage inside the arena.

In regards to the taco truck, it’s actually a food truck owned/operated by former St Mary’s lineman, JP Nisby, called Patrick’s House Catering. They serve a house burger, po’ boy sandwich, shrimp, brisket, etc. He was in the same class as my eldest son. His wife works for St. Mary’s and his mom, Dr. Hatton, is my wife’s OB/GYN doctor. His cousin is Justin Davis (former Lincoln-Stockton RB that played for USC and the LA Rams). Confident it will be at the game for playoffs. Recommend checking it out. Enjoy!

If anything changes, ie. Jo Koy concert gets rescheduled, I will definitely let you know. Otherwise, and I say this to all fellow bloggers here, if your ever at a St. Mary’s home game, please feel free to look for me on the opposing team’s sideline working the chains. I will be the “bald” guy with a gray beard and mustache. You will know it’s me before kickoff when I take off my hat for the National Anthem, 😂. Can also find me at halftime heading to the snack bar for my FREE hot dog/water, 😂.

Keep me posted but I get it! 😁.
Agree about MT and CC. No way does OR deserve the 3 slot and I’m a homer.

 

[bulldogmgc]

This is how I have it currently, according to the SJS Playoff Format and calpreps.com. (Side note, there is no portion of the SJS Playoff format that spells out seeding).

Seed	CalPreps	Team	Enrollment
1	59.7	Folsom	2750
2	52.4	St. Mary's	780
3	40.9	Oak Ridge	2652
4	38.6	Monterey Trail	2398
5	38	Central Catholic	378
6	27.5	Elk Grove	1940
7	25.7	Turlock	2608
8	23.3	Lincoln	2970
9	18.8	Sheldon	2553
10	14.9	Edison	2901
11	7.5	Inderkum	2347
12	-13.6	Johnson***	2510

MaxPreps dropped Inderkum to D2 stating others have to move up, being Enochs and Stagg. Quite possible for Inderkum to move into D1 if indeed Stagg and Enochs dropped from the 64 teams playoff selection. We’ll see. Agree, couldn’t find any guidelines like in past for seeding.

 

[PatCarrillo]

This is how I have it currently, according to the SJS Playoff Format and calpreps.com. (Side note, there is no portion of the SJS Playoff format that spells out seeding).

Seed	CalPreps	Team	Enrollment
1	59.7	Folsom	2750
2	52.4	St. Mary's	780
3	40.9	Oak Ridge	2652
4	38.6	Monterey Trail	2398
5	38	Central Catholic	378
6	27.5	Elk Grove	1940
7	25.7	Turlock	2608
8	23.3	Lincoln	2970
9	18.8	Sheldon	2553
10	14.9	Edison	2901
11	7.5	Inderkum	2347
12	-13.6	Johnson***	2510

Is it the top 8 that make playoffs?

 

[bulldogmgc]

Is it the top 8 that make playoffs?

Top 12, with top 4 getting a first round bye.

 

[MTsince2004]

MaxPreps dropped Inderkum to D2 stating others have to move up, being Enochs and Stagg. Quite possible for Inderkum to move into D1 if indeed Stagg and Enochs dropped from the 64 teams playoff selection. We’ll see. Agree, couldn’t find any guidelines like in past for seeding.

Inderkum and Gregori are D2. They are the two smallest moveable schools in D1. They are pushed down as St. Mary's and Elk Grove move up. Done deal.

Johnson leapfrogs into the #12 spot due to an automatic league champion bid. As of right now, Stagg and Enochs are too close to call since the algorithm won't be done calculating until this afternoon's games are finished. They are separated by .1 (-9.2 to -9.3).

Laguna Creek will be (justifiably?) complaining that lesser-rated schools (Gregori and either Stagg or Enochs) will be in both the D1 and D2 brackets while they are sitting home watching the playoffs. Enrollment-wise, the difference between Gregori and Laguna Creek is less than 100 students. As far as the divisions go, that difference is huge. LC should ask the EGUSD to send 150 more kids their way next school year. They would have been a comfortable lock in D1.