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Some CCS virus perspective

colhenrylives

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For some context in the ongoing struggle to contain the corona virus epidemic, let's take a brief look at some interesting (though rather tragic) numbers coming out of the two dominant counties that make up the Central Coast Section. Together, San Mateo and Santa Clara counties have recorded 184 deaths due to the illness as of Saturday, according to their helpful public health websites. About 75 percent of those deaths have occurred to individuals over 60-years-old. Additionally, of those 184 fatalities, 90 were found to be among seniors in long-term care facilities. The implication seems fairly obvious along the Peninsula and into Silicon Valley: A heavy focus on protecting older folks, especially those in long-term care facilities, might permit re-opening the economy (and schools) a bit sooner. A more nuanced, targeted approach to the epidemic would seem to make sense. But that's just one person's take on the matter.
 
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For some context in the ongoing struggle to contain the corona virus epidemic, let's take a brief look at some interesting (though rather tragic) numbers coming out of the two dominant counties that make up the Central Coast Section. Together, San Mateo and Santa Clara counties have recorded 184 deaths due to the illness as of Saturday, according to their helpful public health websites. About 75 percent of those deaths have occurred to individuals over 60-years-old. Additionally, of those 184 fatalities, 90 were found to be among seniors in long-term care facilities. The implication seems fairly obvious along the Peninsula and into Silicon Valley: A heavy focus on protecting older folks, especially those in long-term care facilities, might permit re-opening the economy (and schools) a bit sooner. A more nuanced, targeted approach to the epidemic would seem to make sense. But that's just one person's take on the matter.
 
Agree but up to Governor.
Emperor. Treating this by county as "one size fits all" makes no sense whatsoever. Nor does keeping the 99% of people holed up when we know who is most vulnerable and can take effective measures to protect them while keeping our society from the significant and lasting damage the lockdown is rendering. This doesn't have to be zero-sum, and shouldn't be.
 
Seems to be two trains of thought in general: One is our freedoms are being taken away and this is an overreaction by the government. The other is let's continue to take necessary precautions to limit the spread and potential increase in fatalities.

Depending on the day I struggle to reconcile between the two. All this uncertainty leads me to believe that fall sports will not happen. How we gonna send half the kids to school, keep them 6 feet apart all day then go on the playing fields and practice and compete?

I would love to see football this fall but imagine that just 1 High School Player dies from Covid. Imagine now that you are the parent of that player or the Head Coach of that team. I'm trying to find a silver lining but...damned if you do damned if you don't.
 
80,000+ have died in the U.S. This virus doesn’t care. It takes what it wants. Get closer to other people more people get the virus. The virus doesn’t ask questions like “is it my right to go out in public without a mask, and be around other people?” It doesn’t care about race, sex, age and certainly not the economy and People’s rights/freedoms. Until we have a treatment and a vaccine, we should err on caution. Granted, nothing is 100% effective, but it is the logical to do.
 
One aspect of the virus is clear from the data: It kills more older adults than younger folks by a significant amount. It's especially true when it comes to those in long-term care facilities. So the question becomes: Can the state devise rules that protect elders while opening up portions of the economy for younger people? Is there some balance out there?
 
colhenry while I agree with you let's not forget that COVID ain't the flu. Recent reports suggest COVID might take 10 years off your life. Some recovering patients exhibit lung scarring and reduced lung capacity. Others have blood clots,strokes or embolisms. Heart damage. Neurocognitive issues. Male infertility. Impaired liver function. Now we are hearing more about childhood inflammatory issues. And who knows what else they are going to find about this disease? I want to get back to work. I hope there is a way to re-open the economy. But the only issue isn't the 1% to 2% chance that you will die if you get it, there is also the very real potential for serious life long issues for those contracting COIVD-19.
 
Emperor. Treating this by county as "one size fits all" makes no sense whatsoever. Nor does keeping the 99% of people holed up when we know who is most vulnerable and can take effective measures to protect them while keeping our society from the significant and lasting damage the lockdown is rendering. This doesn't have to be zero-sum, and shouldn't be.

Way too many people think they've got this thing figured out and unfortunately it has jeopardized the health of others.

Perhaps California as a State has taken a "one size fits all" approach to this thing and so I can see where all the criticism is coming from. Everyone is an expert, everyone has an opinion and everyone is smarter beyond the research of our State and local Government. It's like the parent who always has the correct play called from the bleachers after the fact.

But what is fact is that America did not take a "one size fits all" approach to threat of this disease. Our Federal Government sat on their hands and left it to local and State Government to combat the spread of the virus and those who were late to get with the program have paid the hardest. Let's be honest for a second here, the novel Coronavirus is now an American disease.

For as much anger as you have built up towards the Governor, let's not ignore the fact that his "one size fits all" approach has saved lives and significantly flattened the curve of the spread. The old saying goes "Men lie, Women lie but numbers don't lie.

California is tied for 20th with only 69 COVID-19 related deaths per million residents. Considering how populated this State is along with the fact that it is the most visited State in the union, that number is extremely admirable.

The was a time where the virus had not affected a single African-American. Now, it is believed that people of color at are high risk of contracting the virus.

Disputes have gone back and fourth over whether or not you can catch the virus twice.

Remember when they said children did not appear to be at risk of infection? That is no longer true.

Last week, traces of the virus were found in semen. So now it is apparent that the disease could be transmitted through intercourse.

There is still a debates as to where or not warm whether kills the virus.

Or how about our lovely Vice President touring a medical facility without a mask due to low-probability of contraction only for there to be a minor outbreak within the White House?

No, we do not know nearly as much about this thing as everyone thinks they do. Sometimes, it's just best to run the football and try your luck better another day.
 
10,000 contact tracers are now being trained in CA. Civil service employees who would’ve been furloughed/unable to telework. SF started their training of 1,000 weeks ago. NOT because Newsom was mayor, but bc public health officials there know tons more than most areas of the state, let alone other parts of the US. Feinstein didn’t close the bathhouses in ‘84 to win votes. It saved thousands of lives.

This is the ONLY way there can be high level mitigation, until a vaccine. And the anti-vaxxers maybe deserve last in line, but they’re human too (and will be traced.) Once our state incorporates a plan to integrate County tracing, then gets neighboring states to cooperate there is great hope in reducing: exposure, transmission, hospitalization, death. Again, Fauci is 100% correct it will not go away unless a ton of global effort and $ helps: I.e. smallpox in 1980 and Gates Foundation/polio.

The “freedom heroes” may not be ready to show that phone app with a “green” tracer, but they might if grandma is intubated.

 
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What’s the plan when we go back to work? Some parts of Europe did and there are now flare ups of new cases there. They may have to close back down again.

Sweden operated as business as usual from day 1 and have had continued success. It’s herd physiology. The herd apparently will develop immunity.

We can protect the elderly in nurses homes or hospital’s but we can’t protect our economy. Each day we lose businesses that will never open again no matter how many trillions of dollars we throw at them. World trade has been crippled and on the ropes. Our Navy and Military are being over run by Covid 19.

Our Children and Grandchildren are going to be the ones that will be strangled underneath all of this debt. The Dollar will soon be devalued. Printing funny money has that effect. Let’s all be Sweden...
 
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Sweden operated as business as usual from day 1 and have had continued success. It’s herd physiology. The herd apparently will develop immunity.
Hate to "science" you but there seems to be confusion about herd immunity. This is from Johns Hopkins:

When most of a population is immune to an infectious disease, this provides indirect protection—or herd immunity—to those who are not immune to the disease.

For example, if 80% of a population is immune to a virus, four out of every five people who encounter someone with the disease won’t get sick (and won’t spread the disease any further). In this way, the spread of infectious diseases is kept under control. Depending how contagious an infection is, usually 70% to 90% of a population needs immunity to achieve herd immunity.

Measles, mumps, polio, and chickenpox are examples of infectious diseases that were once very common but are now rare in the U.S. because vaccines helped to establish herd immunity.

Other viruses (like the flu) mutate over time, so antibodies from a previous infection provide protection for only a short period of time. For the flu, this is less than a year. If SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, is like other coronaviruses that currently infect humans, we can expect that people who get infected will be immune for months to years, but probably not their entire lives. (Sidebar - "Effective vaccine" is also open to discussion. Typically the flu vaccine is only 40% to 60% effective in creating immunity. Will the COIVD vaccine be more effective?)

As with any other infection, there are two ways to achieve herd immunity: A large proportion of the population either gets infected or gets a protective vaccine. Based on early estimates of this virus’s infectiousness, we will likely need at least 70% of the population to be immune to have herd protection.

  • In the best case, we maintain current levels of infection—or even reduce these levels—until a vaccine becomes available. This will take concerted effort on the part of the entire population, with some level of continued physical distancing for an extended period, likely a year or longer, before a highly effective vaccine can be developed, tested, and mass produced.
  • The most likely case is where infection rates rise and fall over time; we may relax social distancing measures when numbers of infections fall, and then may need to re-implement these measures as numbers increase again. Prolonged effort will be required to prevent major outbreaks until a vaccine is developed.
Scientists are working furiously to develop an effective vaccine. In the meantime, as most of the population remains uninfected with SARS-CoV-2, some measures will be required to prevent explosive outbreaks like those we’ve seen in places like New York City.

The physical distancing measures needed may vary over time and will not always need to be as strict as our current shelter-in-place laws. But unless we want hundreds of millions of Americans to get infected with SARS-CoV-2 (what it would take to establish herd immunity in this country), life is not likely to be completely “normal” again until a vaccine can be developed and widely distributed.
 
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Hate to "science" you but there seems to be confusion about herd immunity. This is from Johns Hopkins:

When most of a population is immune to an infectious disease, this provides indirect protection—or herd immunity—to those who are not immune to the disease.

For example, if 80% of a population is immune to a virus, four out of every five people who encounter someone with the disease won’t get sick (and won’t spread the disease any further). In this way, the spread of infectious diseases is kept under control. Depending how contagious an infection is, usually 70% to 90% of a population needs immunity to achieve herd immunity.

Measles, mumps, polio, and chickenpox are examples of infectious diseases that were once very common but are now rare in the U.S. because vaccines helped to establish herd immunity.

Other viruses (like the flu) mutate over time, so antibodies from a previous infection provide protection for only a short period of time. For the flu, this is less than a year. If SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, is like other coronaviruses that currently infect humans, we can expect that people who get infected will be immune for months to years, but probably not their entire lives. (Sidebar - "Effective vaccine" is also open to discussion. Typically the flu vaccine is only 40% to 60% effective in creating immunity. Will the COIVD vaccine be more effective?)

As with any other infection, there are two ways to achieve herd immunity: A large proportion of the population either gets infected or gets a protective vaccine. Based on early estimates of this virus’s infectiousness, we will likely need at least 70% of the population to be immune to have herd protection.

  • In the best case, we maintain current levels of infection—or even reduce these levels—until a vaccine becomes available. This will take concerted effort on the part of the entire population, with some level of continued physical distancing for an extended period, likely a year or longer, before a highly effective vaccine can be developed, tested, and mass produced.
  • The most likely case is where infection rates rise and fall over time; we may relax social distancing measures when numbers of infections fall, and then may need to re-implement these measures as numbers increase again. Prolonged effort will be required to prevent major outbreaks until a vaccine is developed.
Scientists are working furiously to develop an effective vaccine. In the meantime, as most of the population remains uninfected with SARS-CoV-2, some measures will be required to prevent explosive outbreaks like those we’ve seen in places like New York City.

The physical distancing measures needed may vary over time and will not always need to be as strict as our current shelter-in-place laws. But unless we want hundreds of millions of Americans to get infected with SARS-CoV-2 (what it would take to establish herd immunity in this country), life is not likely to be completely “normal” again until a vaccine can be developed and widely distributed.
So in essence we have shut down our ability to achieve herd immunity which is what our governor has stated is necessary to get back to normal.
 
So in essence we have shut down our ability to achieve herd immunity which is what our governor has stated is necessary to get back to normal.
The shutdown was to avoid our hospitals to not be inundated as there’s only a limited amount of hospital beds, personnel, ICU space, equipment and PPEs if the cases exploded.
 
W
The shutdown was to avoid our hospitals to not be inundated as there’s only a limited amount of hospital beds, personnel, ICU space, equipment and PPEs if the cases exploded.
Which the cases have not exploded and the curve has flattened. Sooo....The plan is we have no plan. We had a stage 2. Did anyone know we had a stage 2.1? Because we added some additional restrictions. Like no deaths in 14 days in any one county. So 26 deaths or less per year per county. That seems reasonable. That’s our plan? Will we have a stage 2.2? We can hide behind the fact that we are pretending to manage this by science but we’re not. Science would have had criteria already in place. Not a la carte restrictions.
 
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W

Which the cases have not exploded and the curve has flattened. Sooo....The plan is we have no plan. We had a stage 2. Did anyone know we had a stage 2.1? Because we added some additional restrictions. Like no deaths in 14 days in any one county. So 26 deaths or less per year per county. That seems reasonable. That’s our plan? Will we have a stage 2.2? We can hide behind the fact that we are pretending to manage this by science but we’re not. Science would have had criteria already in place. Not a la carte restrictions.
Leadership starting at the top should have criteria in place if they used science and fact. It doesn’t have to be a one size fit all if each county follows science and data. Butte and El Dorado Counties just announced their phased plan.
 
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The obvious is at play here: No Organization is going to risk the Health, and be exposed to the Lawsuits & Liabilities under any circumstance, especially as it relates to Covid-19. To think that if one Student-Athlete competes, comes down with the virus and dies, it will be hell to pay. The 2020-21 Fall, Winter and Spring Sports for High School may in fact be over. Professional Sports of any kind might be done too. It sucks, prepare for the worse. IMO
 
[QUOTE="northbayfb, post: 265429, member.....,,We can hide behind the fact that we are pretending to manage this by science but we’re not. Science would have had criteria already in place. Not a la carte restrictions.[/QUOTE

To understand the impact to HS sports, let alone ALL aspects of society, it’s great NBfb brought up “science.”

With all due respect, “science” doesn’t plan logistics. Governments do. Science can (and did) tell governments, “this is one bad dude, we must mitigate immediately.”
Science does not have criteria, let alone protocols to control the movement/actions of people across jurisdictional lines-counties, states, countries, CONTINENTS! (Why do you think Warren Buffet just dumped all his airline stock?) SARS-CoVid-2 infects, and spreads DAYS before symptoms, even if there will be any. Why face coverings are required now? Less because you might catch a droplet, but more so YOU don’t deliver one!
And this is why a (highly contagious) respiratory outbreak spreads; stealthily and rapidly.

Believe what you want, but a significant reason more “authoritarian” governments flattened their curve faster (with fewer deaths, fact) is they had/have the capability (not endorsing, just reporting) of limiting movement, earlier. “Closed down China, early” is what actually what THAT country did...and we did not. (Note: the six Bay Area counties were the first in the US to order “stay at home.”) Sure, in January those citizens could not enter the US, yet 40k Americans in that country DID come back after that “directive,” and then Americans were told “It’s totally under control; one person came in from China.” So, you see, “Science” does not create a mitigation plan. It can advise, as Fauci does every day, but not enact. And here we are...

For further reading and insight to the European sources to the East Coast, read about the New Rochelle “super spreader.” Or the Westport Connecticut upscale party on March 5th.
 
Just got word that the CA state university system will not be opening in the fall.
 
...everything but football...SF State, Sonoma State, Chico State, L.A. State, Hayward State, etc...
 
Anyone that argues the "only affects older, 'at risk' people with underlying health issues" argument, continues to ignore the fact that you can contract the virus, be asymptomatic, and pass it to someone who is 'at risk' unknowingly.

if i get it, you want me to hang around someone you love that could die?

BUT you don't know i have it. I wouldn't know I have it.

hmmm

so to use that as a reason to open school because kids are so resilient and at low risk, is asinine

and let's not forget that every school has dozens of 'at risk' people

And let's not forget that plenty of people are dying 5, 10, 20 years too early. This is not killing just 65 and older. 64 year olds are dying too. 50 year olds are dying.


I'm getting really tired of the ignorance and selfishness on this subject. (not just here, everywhere)
 
Any “at risk” individual should continue to weigh the benefits of shelter in place and minimize their risk of infection. Prior to COVID 19 there are any number of infections that could affect “at risk” individuals. Homeschooling or online schooling is always available to all “at risk” students. Just because they open school doesn’t mean you have to stop sheltering in place. Likewise, you can weigh the risks of being out in society if you’re not “at risk” and continue to shelter in place.

It’s all in where you choose to place the ignorance or selfishness.
 
Any “at risk” individual should continue to weigh the benefits of shelter in place and minimize their risk of infection. Prior to COVID 19 there are any number of infections that could affect “at risk” individuals. Homeschooling or online schooling is always available to all “at risk” students. Just because they open school doesn’t mean you have to stop sheltering in place. Likewise, you can weigh the risks of being out in society if you’re not “at risk” and continue to shelter in place.

It’s all in where you choose to place the ignorance or selfishness.
again, I'll say:

you are ignoring the fact that one can be a carrier, asymptomatic for days, and infect people who are trying to isolate.. or infect someone who can infect someone who is trying to isolate.

and again: what is at risk? your OP referred to people over 60. There are dozens of over 60 workers at every school. They stay home? There are over 7000 deaths of people age 45-65. The vast majority of them would not have died if they didn't catch the virus.

This is not only about who is 'at risk'. Because every single one of us can either die from this or give it unknowingly to someone who can die. When you say you can weigh the risks, you are talking about risk for yourself, with no regard to the fact you are a risk to everyone around you. That is the selfish part.
 
This is not to say I am against opening. I would just like to see it opened responsibly, and with a plan. What most people want, is not that.

Newsom, if anything, has been consistent in that he is deferring to the experts as to how to move forward. He has the political will to follow their advice. And I for one, am grateful he is doing so.

All I know is, When we do open up, and they are playing sports, and the schools are open, I want the public health and virus experts to say, "Yeah, that seems reasonable", and not "Well, I don't think that's a good idea."

And I'll take their advice over people who think they know what's good for me, or think it's a hoax, or think it's just the flu, or you guys who live in my phone.
 
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again, I'll say:

you are ignoring the fact that one can be a carrier, asymptomatic for days, and infect people who are trying to isolate.. or infect someone who can infect someone who is trying to isolate.

and again: what is at risk? your OP referred to people over 60. There are dozens of over 60 workers at every school. They stay home? There are over 7000 deaths of people age 45-65. The vast majority of them would not have died if they didn't catch the virus.

This is not only about who is 'at risk'. Because every single one of us can either die from this or give it unknowingly to someone who can die. When you say you can weigh the risks, you are talking about risk for yourself, with no regard to the fact you are a risk to everyone around you. That is the selfish part.
Not ignoring the fact that one can be an a symptomatic carrier. If I am one how does a person sheltering in place get it from me? Unless you break the shelter in place or make exceptions it won’t happen. Unless you have weighed the risk and are willing to take it. At some point all of us will have to weigh that risk even when there is a vaccine. Much like we weigh the risk of fatal accident when we get in a car. Most of us take the “it won’t happen to me approach” or “I’m a really good driver”. I’m not the OP because to me it doesn’t matter your age. As you said anyone can get it.

I’m happy for you that you trust our governor. I don’t l, not even a little bit but that is my choice

The selfish part can equally be true that you want everyone to stay at home, with no income wondering what they are going to do for food, shelter and clothing while the Governor makes up restrictions within each Phase
 
Not ignoring the fact that one can be an a symptomatic carrier. If I am one how does a person sheltering in place get it from me? Unless you break the shelter in place or make exceptions it won’t happen. Unless you have weighed the risk and are willing to take it. At some point all of us will have to weigh that risk even when there is a vaccine. Much like we weigh the risk of fatal accident when we get in a car. Most of us take the “it won’t happen to me approach” or “I’m a really good driver”. I’m not the OP because to me it doesn’t matter your age. As you said anyone can get it.

I’m happy for you that you trust our governor. I don’t l, not even a little bit but that is my choice

The selfish part can equally be true that you want everyone to stay at home, with no income wondering what they are going to do for food, shelter and clothing while the Governor makes up restrictions within each Phase
you're assuming shelter in place means be by yourself with zero contact with humans... that is unrealistic. People have family members to start. I don't want this thing, I don't think I'm at risk, but I am not taking it for granted. I don't want my basketball playing kids to get it, bring it home to me. I do'n' want to get it from my kids, and then unknowingly expose everyone I'm in contact with. I don't want my kids to get sick and have potentially long term effects. But I have no say in all of this if I do everything right, and we come back to soon.

if there is another spike in cases, then the economy is going to be shut down even more so. The fact is, our economy is screwed no matter what for the next 2 years. opening early and recklessly and risking lives is not going to change that. another 2 month shutdown due to a spike is the last thing we need. Better to be cautious now, and open carefully, with the advice of the virus experts.
 
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The selfish part can equally be true that you want everyone to stay at home, with no income wondering what they are going to do for food, shelter and clothing while the Governor makes up restrictions within each Phase
and it's nice that you know more than the experts the governor is leaning on.
 
This is not to say I am against opening. I would just like to see it opened responsibly, and with a plan. What most people
you're assuming shelter in place means be by yourself with zero contact with humans... that is unrealistic. People have family members to start. I don't want this thing, I don't think I'm at risk, but I am not taking it for granted. I don't want my basketball playing kids to get it, bring it home to me. I do'n' want to get it from my kids, and then unknowingly expose everyone I'm in contact with. I don't want my kids to get sick and have potentially long term effects. But I have no say in all of this if I do everything right, and we come back to soon.

if there is another spike in cases, then the economy is going to be shut down even more so. The fact is, our economy is screwed no matter what for the next 2 years. opening early and recklessly and risking lives is not going to change that. another 2 month shutdown due to a spike is the last thing we need. Better to be cautious now, and open carefully, with the advice of the virus experts.
.
Go to the grocery store? Its the one place everyone goes. Everyone. Symptomatic, Asymptomatic and uninfected. How’s that Social Distancing working for you? Am I the only person being passed by someone going the other way in the aisle multiple times? No more than a foot away. Meat section at Costco?! Please. Under this theory these are all Ground Zeroes for every single community. You’re already exposing your family, other families and at risk people.

And yes. I completely agree. Life with zero human contact is unrealistic.
 
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Sal- nbfb isn’t going to listen. That’s why he brought up Newsom. As if the Governor goes on TV to promote some idiotic cure the experts cringe at. He needs to understand “virus load” and other pertinent facts about epidemiology. But the “don’t trust the Governor” bias reveals a weak hand. Wonder if the in depth research into pandemics rests with Dr. Lou Dobbs from the National Institute of Haughtiness.

p.s.- AGAIN...the restrictions initiated here in the six Bay counties one week earlier than the rest of the US prevented the pure hellish scenario in NYC later in April of overwhelmed hospitals, HCWs, and morgues. But don’t thank anyone here for that.
 
Sal- nbfb isn’t going to listen. That’s why he brought up Newsom. As if the Governor goes on TV to promote some idiotic cure the experts cringe at. He needs to understand “virus load” and other pertinent facts about epidemiology. But the “don’t trust the Governor” bias reveals a weak hand. Wonder if the in depth research into pandemics rests with Dr. Lou Dobbs from the National Institute of Haughtiness.

p.s.- AGAIN...the restrictions initiated here in the six Bay counties one week earlier than the rest of the US prevented the pure hellish scenario in NYC later in April of overwhelmed hospitals, HCWs, and morgues. But don’t thank anyone here for that.
Never understood how this crisis became a political party affiliation which you would be wrong in your assumption. You give a Chinese company with a history of faulty products $500mm upfront for medical masks and you have neither the masks or the money it’s a problem as you slash your state’s funding across the board.

Cuomo signed his order one day after Newsom.
 
Yet don’t get me wrong nbfb; I wish there were more factors leaning toward hsfb this fall. It’ll be a challenge to mitigate as “flu season” happens yearly. Remember, “it’s just like the flu.”

Perhaps re-read: Did you not say: “The Governor makes up new restrictions with each phase.” If that’s not politicizing what is? Makes up?? Like you and I know more about epidemiology that his hundreds of PhDs/MDs combined!

It’s like most things in life: failing to prepare is preparing to fail. Want to “open society” without adequate contact tracing in California? Want to interact with those you don’t know without PPE or protocols? Want HSFB season to be wracked with constant forfeits/cancellations/rescheduling bc coach/QBs Dad/bus driver tested +?

I do have some empathy for the parents who have white boarded the trajectory of their rising Sr/Jr toward a college FB scholarship. These must be panicked times for them, and why you are considering OOS options (the new BG guy awaits your call.)

p.s.- If one’s adamant about “sucking it up” and “getting out there,” look up “Palermo Bible FAMILY (not joking) Church” in Butte County. You know, way up there where CoVid19 really doesn’t exis.... oh snap.
 
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