WCAL Team Projections for CCS Playoffs Round 2

[Rmbr26]

With 4 playoff games this week involving 5 of 8 of the WCAL league teams we will see 8 teams all in the top 12 of the CCS; #1 -Serra, #2- St. Francis, #3-Salinas, #4-Mitty, #8-Wilcox, #10-Aptos,
#11-Bells, #12-St. Ignatius

First of all here are the projections:
Serra 42-21 over Salinas
SF 28-19 over Mitty in rematch
Wilcox 26-21 over Bells
Aptos over St. Ignatius 27-26

Here's how last weeks projections went for the WCAL teams:
Serra won easily as projected by 40+ over Palma.
SF projected to win 28-17 over SHC barely held on to win 17-14 over the Irish.
Mitty was an 11-point underdog and shocked Los Gatos in O/T by 29-28.
S.I. favored by 18 over HMB won by 9 in 24-15 win over the Cougars.

Some Facts about the match-ups in regards to the Projections:

Serra vs Salinas: Serra is undefeated 11-0 while Salinas is 10-1 with only loss to Aptos 44-41. Common opponent for both teams is Palma whom Serra defeated 57-7 and Salinas 47-14. Salinas top win was over CVC by 21-14.
SF vs Mitty: The Lancers overwhelmed Mitty in regular season by 35-13. Common opponent was Serra with Lancers losing 28-7 and Mitty losing by 35-7.
Bells vs Wilcox: Common opponent M-A whom Bells played twice however I will not count the first meeting which M-A won 48-34. M-A then had Jurion Dickey who scored 4 TD's in the game & M-A is a different team without Dickey]. OK so in the 2 "Dickey-less" games M-A played vs Bells & Wilcox, Wilcox got by M-A 21-20 and Bells last week pulled away from M-A to win confortably by 30-7.
St. Ignatius vs Aptos: Aptos had the huge win over then undefeated Salinas by 44-41 and yet lost to Palma 24-21. St. Ignatius big win was an upset over Mitty by 24-21 and played solid vs Serra losing 21-7.

"SOS" Strength of Schedule favors WCAL teams in regards to projections:
While the win-loss records seem to indicate possible "mismatches" it is not likely in the upcoming games: ie: Bells 5-6 vs Wilcox 10-1 and S.I. 5-6 vs Aptos 9-2. Of the 8 teams playing in the semi finals here are their "SOS" ratings in order:
Serra 32.7
St. Francis 32.3
Mitty 25.8
S.I. 25.7
Bells 24.4
Salinas 14.0
Aptos 6.0
Wilcox 2.9

Conclusion: of the 4 games it certainly looks like the possibility of 1-2 upsets: SF did not look great last week while Mitty came through with the upset vs Los Gatos. Bells have one of their best players back and played solid vs M-A. I see the Bells vs Wilcox game as a toss-up. If S.I. could upset Mitty then I see them having a good chance vs Aptos - S.I. has been an "up & down" team week to week so just depends which S.I. team shows up [the S.I. defense will have to contain the Aptos offense to have a chance at the upset].

 

[colhenrylives]

One caveat: St. Francis is returning to its traditional style on offense, run the ball, eat the clock behind its huge OL, secure favorable field position with special teams and try to keep the opponent offense off the field. Earlier, the Lancers were passing more. They have not lost since the Serra game two months ago. A rematch with the Padres seems to loom. A lot like 2021, with the roles reversed.

 

[Falcon_98]

With 4 playoff games this week involving 5 of 8 of the WCAL league teams we will see 8 teams all in the top 12 of the CCS; #1 -Serra, #2- St. Francis, #3-Salinas, #4-Mitty, #8-Wilcox, #10-Aptos,
#11-Bells, #12-St. Ignatius

First of all here are the projections:
Serra 42-21 over Salinas
SF 28-19 over Mitty in rematch
Wilcox 26-21 over Bells
Aptos over St. Ignatius 27-26

Here's how last weeks projections went for the WCAL teams:
Serra won easily as projected by 40+ over Palma.
SF projected to win 28-17 over SHC barely held on to win 17-14 over the Irish.
Mitty was an 11-point underdog and shocked Los Gatos in O/T by 29-28.
S.I. favored by 18 over HMB won by 9 in 24-15 win over the Cougars.

Some Facts about the match-ups in regards to the Projections:

Serra vs Salinas: Serra is undefeated 11-0 while Salinas is 10-1 with only loss to Aptos 44-41. Common opponent for both teams is Palma whom Serra defeated 57-7 and Salinas 47-14. Salinas top win was over CVC by 21-14.
SF vs Mitty: The Lancers overwhelmed Mitty in regular season by 35-13. Common opponent was Serra with Lancers losing 28-7 and Mitty losing by 35-7.
Bells vs Wilcox: Common opponent M-A whom Bells played twice however I will not count the first meeting which M-A won 48-34. M-A then had Jurion Dickey who scored 4 TD's in the game & M-A is a different team without Dickey]. OK so in the 2 "Dickey-less" games M-A played vs Bells & Wilcox, Wilcox got by M-A 21-20 and Bells last week pulled away from M-A to win confortably by 30-7.
St. Ignatius vs Aptos: Aptos had the huge win over then undefeated Salinas by 44-41 and yet lost to Palma 24-21. St. Ignatius big win was an upset over Mitty by 24-21 and played solid vs Serra losing 21-7.

"SOS" Strength of Schedule favors WCAL teams in regards to projections:
While the win-loss records seem to indicate possible "mismatches" it is not likely in the upcoming games: ie: Bells 5-6 vs Wilcox 10-1 and S.I. 5-6 vs Aptos 9-2. Of the 8 teams playing in the semi finals here are their "SOS" ratings in order:
Serra 32.7
St. Francis 32.3
Mitty 25.8
S.I. 25.7
Bells 24.4
Salinas 14.0
Aptos 6.0
Wilcox 2.9

Conclusion: of the 4 games it certainly looks like the possibility of 1-2 upsets: SF did not look great last week while Mitty came through with the upset vs Los Gatos. Bells have one of their best players back and played solid vs M-A. I see the Bells vs Wilcox game as a toss-up. If S.I. could upset Mitty then I see them having a good chance vs Aptos - S.I. has been an "up & down" team week to week so just depends which S.I. team shows up [the S.I. defense will have to contain the Aptos offense to have a chance at the upset].

Dickey played vs. Wilcox

 

[Rmbr26]

Dickey played vs. Wilcox

Thx Falcon_98 as didn't see that game and wasn't sure. Makes sense then why score was so close as Dickey def worth an add'l 1-2 scores vs most opponents.

 

[Rmbr26]

Of the 4 projections I posted 3 got turned upside down last night: a mild upset SI taking down Aptos, Bells upsetting favored Wilcox by 22-17 and in what is being called “The Mitty Miracle” the Monarchs score a TD with 40 secs left, recover the onside kick & score again to tie end of game - score first in O/T anf after SF scored s TD on one play the Lancers muff the PAT to give the Monarchs the huge win. No wonder their coach refers to his team as “Gritty Mitty”…

 

[colhenrylives]

Gritty Mitty. Love it.

 

[sslg]

One slight correction: Mitty scored with about 5 minutes remaining to cut the deficit to 8….recovered an on-side kick…and then scored in the final minute to get within 2 and then converted the 2-point try on pass to Scudero to send it to OT. A fantastic comeback for sure…just not all of it in the final minute. Like you said, Gritty Mitty.

 

[Rmbr26]

One slight correction: Mitty scored with about 5 minutes remaining to cut the deficit to 8….recovered an on-side kick…and then scored in the final minute to get within 2 and then converted the 2-point try on pass to Scudero to send it to OT. A fantastic comeback for sure…just not all of it in the final minute. Like you said, Gritty Mitty.

Thanks for your post sslg & just looked at my post - which should have said "the Monarchs score a TD with 5:40 sec left". I left out the "5" and otherwise the Mitty Miracle is accurate as to the final outcome. Gritty Mitty Indeed!
They will need to be extremely "gritty" next Friday nite vs Serra, but the Monarchs have had one heck of a season either way.