Did CCS get some of the seedings wrong?

[PAL Booster]

CCS Play-off Projections after Week 6

With four weeks to go there is enough of a pattern to provide a reasonable projection for the play-offs. 35 of the play-off spots will be from automatic qualifiers based on league standings. The final five spots will be at-large positions. Two of these will go to the 5th and 6th place finishers in the WCAL leaving three at-large spots for the rest of the section. Currently these project to Mountain View, Alisal and Aptos, but Alisal, Aptos, Hollister, Kings Academy, and Milpitas are all separated by about 1.5 point for the final two at-large berths.

Division I

8. Mitty 5-5 63 at Serra 10-0 88.5

7. Wilcox 7-3 64 at St. Francis 7-3 78.5

6. Valley Christian 6-4 68.5 at 3. Los Gatos 8-2 74

5. Riordan 7-3 72 at 4. St. Ignatius 6-4 73

Serra will likely be the #1 seed. Seeds 2-7 will be determined between St. Francis, Riordan, Saint Ignatius, Los Gatos and Wilcox and the winner of Valley Christian and Mitty in week 10. The final spot should come down to the winner of the #6 team from the WCAL (likely loser of Mitty and Valley Christian) winner of the Gabilan (likely Salinas), or the winner of the Deanza (Menlo or Hillsdale).

Division II

8. Monterey 7-3 49 at 1. Salinas 7-3 62.5

5. Soquel 7-2 55.9 at 4. Hillsdale 9-1 57.5

6. Sacred Heart Prep 5-5 54 at Live Oak 9-0 58.33

7. Capuchino 10-0 49.5 at 2. Menlo 10-0 61

Division III

8. Fremont 9-1 39.5 at 1. Carmel 10-0 48

5. Palma 3-7 43 at 4. Scotts Valley 9-1 43.5

6. Aptos 3-7 40.5 at 3. Menlo Atherton 4-6 46

7. Aragon 7-3 40 at 2. Christopher 9-1 46.5

Division IV

8. Burlingame 4-6 30.5 at 1. Palo Alto 5-5 39

5. Alisal 8-2 36 at 4. Leigh 8-2 36.5

6. Seaside 7-3 33.5 at Mountain View 4-6 38.5

7. Willow Glen 7-2 32.1 at 2. North Salinas 8-2 39

Division V

8. Pioneer 6-4 20 at 1. Branham 8-2 29.5

5. South San Francisco 9-1 24.5 at 4. Woodside 6-4 26

6. Lincoln 5-5 23 at 3. Greenfield 9-1 26.5

7. Prospect 9-1 20.5 at 2. Santa Teresa 5-5 28.5

WCAL – Only one CCS team last year was able to come within two touchdowns of Serra and this year doesn’t figure to be any different. Second place will likely be determined in the week 9 game between Riordan and St. Francis. Saint Ignatius should get the fourth AQ spot and the two at-large spots for the fifth and sixth place finishers will likely be Mitty and Valley Christian.

PAL Bay – Los Gatos and Wilcox are the two top public schools in the section and will likely square off for the league championship in their week 9 game. Both have played some tough non-league opponents with Los Gatos playing Pittsburg, Grant and Liberty while Wilcox challenged themselves with Edison (Huntington Beach) and Valley Christian. The other three automatic spots will go to Sacred Heart Prep, Menlo-Atherton and Burlingame. Mountain View should get at -large berth.

Gabilan - This league is highly competitive without a truly dominant team. Salinas is the favorite after losing three difficult non-league contests. They still have to overcome Monterey and Palma after defeating Aptos and Soquel. Second through fifth figures to be a dog fight between pretty evenly matched teams in Aptos, Monterey, Soquel and Palma. The fifth place team will be on the bubble for an at-large berth. Currently Aptos is slated to be in 5th place and receive the last at-large berth. Hollister still has a good chance to make the play-offs if they can gain another upset win down the stretch.

Deanza – Menlo and Hillsdale square off in a battle of undefeated teams with the winner likely to win the league and the loser will get one of the league’s three automatic spots. The third spot should go. To the week 10 winner between Kings Academy and Palo Alto with the loser being on the bubble for an at-large spot.

Mt Hamilton – An exceptionally weak A league. Christopher and Live Oak should both go into their week 10 game undefeated. Santa Teresa is likely to come in 3rd and the final automatic spot should go to the week 10 contest between Lincoln and Leland. The last two automatic qualifiers are ranked so low in the section they will likely go to Division V for the play-offs.

PAL Ocean – This is the top-rated B league and gets two automatic spots. This league is competitive top to bottom but the top two spots should be between Capuchino, Aragon and Milpitas with the third place team being on the bubble for an at-large spot.

Mission South – the second highest rated B league. It looks like Carmel will win the league having already defeated the two highest rated opponents in the league. The winner of the week 9 game between North Salinas and Alisal should get the second spot with the loser being on the bubble for an at-large spot. Pacific Grove is still lurking at 6-0 but play their four most difficult opponents over the next four weeks and they will be an underdog in three of them.

El Camino – Fremont is the favorite with Woodside, Santa Clara and Los Altos competing for the second spot. Santa Clara holds a win over Woodside.

Mission North – Scotts Valley and Seaside are heavy favorites to take the top two spots. They play each other in week 8.

Santa Teresa Foothill - Branham is a favorite to win the league. Second place should be a close battle between silver Creek, Piedmont Hills, Independence and Pioneer with Pioneer currently projected for this spot. Whoever prevails for this final slot will likely be in DV for the playoffs.

Santa Teresa Valley – Leigh and Willow Glen are the two favorites over Sobrato, Westmont and Overfelt for the two automatic spots. This should also be a competitive league.

PAL Lake – South San Francisco is the favorite to gain the leagues only play-off spot. Cupertino is still undefeated in league play as well.

Santa Lucia – Greenfield is the favorite over Stevenson and Gonzales for the league’s only play-off spot.

West Valley - Prospect is a close favorite over Del Mar for the section’s weakest league.

 

[FBAddict]

I was looking forward to your CCS Playoff projections... Great work as always!

The new rule for the CCS Open / D1 changes the playoff structure in round 2 (semifinal round) where the winner of game 1/8 is paired up with winner of 2/7 and the winner of 3/6 is pared up with the winner of 4/5.

The winner of round 2, 1/8 vs 2/7, is declared the Open champ while the loser moves to the D1 final round. The winner of round 2, 3/6 vs 4/5, continues to the final round of D1. If all teams with higher CCS power points win their rounds, it would look like the following:

Round 1:
Same as your list for D1

Round 2:
1. SF @ JS
2. SI @ LG

Serra is declared the Open Champ

Round 3:
LG vs SF

SF is declared the D1 Champ

 

[ArmchairGOAT]

How is SI #4 with a head to head loss to #5 Riordan? I know lots can change, but this is a head scratcher.

 

[FBAddict]

How is SI #4 with a head to head loss to #5 Riordan? I know lots can change, but this is a head scratcher.

You have been around CCS long enough to know that the CCS power points are season-long accumulative points and not a ranking system per se. An AR win over SI simply means AR got 2 CCS points whereas SI got 0 win points. These 2 points have only a small share of the overall accumulative CCS points for both teams.

As I see it, the pre-league schedule is the reason why SI has more CCS points than AR right now.

As you said, a lot can change between this week and the end of regular season.

 

[colhenrylives]

And the Big Booster is also projecting future wins and losses and power points.

 

[PAL Booster]

CCS Play-off Projections after Week 7
​

Very few upsets or changes from this weeks results. Woodside’s slight upset over Fremont now projects that the El Camino will end up in a co-championship with these teams. Oak Grove and Silver Creek were added to the field in place of Lincoln and Pioneer for automatic qualifier spots from their leagues.

Division I

8. Mitty 5-5 63 at 1. Serra 10-0 88.5

7. Wilcox 7-3 64 at 2. St. Francis 7-3 78.5

6. Valley Christian 6-4 68.5 at 3. St. Ignatius 6-4 74

5. Riordan 7-3 72 at 4. Los Gatos 8-2 73

Same eight teams as last week with almost the exact same point totals. Los Gatos and St. Ignatius swapped positions based on SI inching ahead of Los Gatos in the CalPrep ranking.

Division II

8. Monterey 7-3 49 at 1. Salinas 7-3 62.5

5. Soquel 7-2 55.9 at 4. Sacred Heart Prep 5-5 56

6. Hillsdale 9-1 52 at 3. Live Oak 9-0 58.33

7. Christopher 9-1 50.5 at 2. Menlo 10-0 62

The top three seeds stayed the same. SHP and Hillsdale swapped the #4 and #5 seeds. Capuchino dropped a division and was replaced by Christopher.

Division III

8. Aragon 7-3 39 at 1. Carmel 10-0 48

5. Scotts Valley 9-1 42.5 at 4. Menlo Atherton 4-6 45

6. North Salinas 8-2 41 at 3. Palma 3-7 46

7. Aptos 3-7 40.5 at 2. Capuchino 10-0 49.5

Capuchino replaced Christopher as the #2 seed. Palma moved from #5 to #3. MA, Scotts Valley and Aragon all dropped a spot. North Salinas moved up a division and Fremont dropped all the way to Divisions V.

Division IV

8. Willow Glen 7-2 31.1 at 1. Palo Alto 5-5 38.5

5. Branham 8-2 34.5 at 4. Alisal 8-2 36

6. Woodside 7-3 33.5 at 3. Leigh 8-2 36.5

7. . Burlingame 4-6 31.5 at 2. Mountain View 4-6 38.5

Mountain View, Leigh and Alisal all moved up a slot. Branham and Woodside moved up from Division V. Burlingame and Willow Glen swapped seeds and Seaside dropped down to Division V.



Division V

8. Prospect 9-1 20.5 at 1. Seaside 7-3 30.5

5. South San Francisco 9-1 23.5 at 4. Santa Teresa 5-5 26.5

6. Silver Creek 7-3 23 at 3. Greenfield 9-1 26.5

7.Oak Grove 4-6 21.5 at 2. Fremont 8-2 30

Seaside and Fremont moved into the top two seeds. Santa Teresa dropped from #2 to #4. Silver Creek and Oak Grove replaced Pioneer and Lincoln in the bracket.

WCAL – No change to projections based on this weeks results. Week eight features the leagues last two undefeated teams facing off as Riordan plays Serra, but Serra will be a 4-5 touchdown favorite.

PAL Bay – No upsets or changes here from last week. Sacred Heart Prep’s win over Menlo-Atherton should secure third place for SHP.

Gabilan – Salinas Beat Monterey 26-18 to keep a solid hold on first place. Palma put itself in a good position with its 52-41 win over Aptos to secure an automatic berth. The loss leaves Aptos potentially on the bubble as an at-large team. Two good games this week as Palma plays Soquel and Aptos squares off with Monterey.

Deanza- Menlo Beat Hillsdale 19-13 in a battle of undefeated teams as projected and is the favorite to win the league. No upsets here as well.

Mt Hamilton – Oak Grove upset Lincoln to put themselves in a great position for the league’s fourth automatic spot. Oak Grove can basically clinch a spot with a in over Leland this week where Oak Grove should be a slight favorite.

PAL Ocean – Capuchino and Aragon are two games up on everyone else and should get the two league play-off berths. They play in week 9 for what should be the league championship.

Mission South – No upsets here as well. North Salinas beat a previously undefeated Pacific Grove team 50-6.

El Camino – Woodside beat Fremont to create a four-way tie at the top of this division with Carlmont and Los Altos. While Fremont and Woodside will be favored to end as co-champions this league should be highly competitive through the end of the year.

Mission North – The league’s remaining two unbeaten teams Scotts Valley and Seaside play this Saturday in Seaside. North Monterey County is still in contention with one league loss.

Santa Teresa Foothill - Branham is still the favorite to twin this league and will play Independence this week who is still undefeated in league play. Silver Creek beat Pioneer last week and is also undefeated in league play and is currently the sllght favorite for the second play-off spot.

Santa Teresa Valley – Leigh beat Willow Glen 17-7 in a contest between the league’s two highest ranked teams and puts Leigh in a great position to win the league. Willow Glen is a slight favorite over Sobrato and Overfelt to gain the second play-off spot. Willow Glen plays Sobrato this week.

PAL Lake –The leagues two remaining undefeated teams play this Friday when South San Francisco travels to Cupertino. Mills is still in contention with one loss.

Santa Lucia – Greenfield, Stevenson and Gonzales remain undefeated with Stevenson playing Greenfield this week. Green field is still a strong favorite to win this league.

West Valley - Prospect and Del Mar are both still undefeated in league play and figure to both be in that position when they will play in week 10 for the league championship.

 

[FBAddict]

CCS Play-off Projections after Week 7
​

Very few upsets or changes from this weeks results. Woodside’s slight upset over Fremont now projects that the El Camino will end up in a co-championship with these teams. Oak Grove and Silver Creek were added to the field in place of Lincoln and Pioneer for automatic qualifier spots from their leagues.

Division I

8. Mitty 5-5 63 at 1. Serra 10-0 88.5

7. Wilcox 7-3 64 at 2. St. Francis 7-3 78.5

6. Valley Christian 6-4 68.5 at 3. St. Ignatius 6-4 74

5. Riordan 7-3 72 at 4. Los Gatos 8-2 73

Same eight teams as last week with almost the exact same point totals. Los Gatos and St. Ignatius swapped positions based on SI inching ahead of Los Gatos in the CalPrep ranking.

Division II

8. Monterey 7-3 49 at 1. Salinas 7-3 62.5

5. Soquel 7-2 55.9 at 4. Sacred Heart Prep 5-5 56

6. Hillsdale 9-1 52 at 3. Live Oak 9-0 58.33

7. Christopher 9-1 50.5 at 2. Menlo 10-0 62

The top three seeds stayed the same. SHP and Hillsdale swapped the #4 and #5 seeds. Capuchino dropped a division and was replaced by Christopher.

Division III

8. Aragon 7-3 39 at 1. Carmel 10-0 48

5. Scotts Valley 9-1 42.5 at 4. Menlo Atherton 4-6 45

6. North Salinas 8-2 41 at 3. Palma 3-7 46

7. Aptos 3-7 40.5 at 2. Capuchino 10-0 49.5

Capuchino replaced Christopher as the #2 seed. Palma moved from #5 to #3. MA, Scotts Valley and Aragon all dropped a spot. North Salinas moved up a division and Fremont dropped all the way to Divisions V.

Division IV

8. Willow Glen 7-2 31.1 at 1. Palo Alto 5-5 38.5

5. Branham 8-2 34.5 at 4. Alisal 8-2 36

6. Woodside 7-3 33.5 at 3. Leigh 8-2 36.5

7. . Burlingame 4-6 31.5 at 2. Mountain View 4-6 38.5

Mountain View, Leigh and Alisal all moved up a slot. Branham and Woodside moved up from Division V. Burlingame and Willow Glen swapped seeds and Seaside dropped down to Division V.



Division V

8. Prospect 9-1 20.5 at 1. Seaside 7-3 30.5

5. South San Francisco 9-1 23.5 at 4. Santa Teresa 5-5 26.5

6. Silver Creek 7-3 23 at 3. Greenfield 9-1 26.5

7.Oak Grove 4-6 21.5 at 2. Fremont 8-2 30

Seaside and Fremont moved into the top two seeds. Santa Teresa dropped from #2 to #4. Silver Creek and Oak Grove replaced Pioneer and Lincoln in the bracket.

WCAL – No change to projections based on this weeks results. Week eight features the leagues last two undefeated teams facing off as Riordan plays Serra, but Serra will be a 4-5 touchdown favorite.

PAL Bay – No upsets or changes here from last week. Sacred Heart Prep’s win over Menlo-Atherton should secure third place for SHP.

Gabilan – Salinas Beat Monterey 26-18 to keep a solid hold on first place. Palma put itself in a good position with its 52-41 win over Aptos to secure an automatic berth. The loss leaves Aptos potentially on the bubble as an at-large team. Two good games this week as Palma plays Soquel and Aptos squares off with Monterey.

Deanza- Menlo Beat Hillsdale 19-13 in a battle of undefeated teams as projected and is the favorite to win the league. No upsets here as well.

Mt Hamilton – Oak Grove upset Lincoln to put themselves in a great position for the league’s fourth automatic spot. Oak Grove can basically clinch a spot with a in over Leland this week where Oak Grove should be a slight favorite.

PAL Ocean – Capuchino and Aragon are two games up on everyone else and should get the two league play-off berths. They play in week 9 for what should be the league championship.

Mission South – No upsets here as well. North Salinas beat a previously undefeated Pacific Grove team 50-6.

El Camino – Woodside beat Fremont to create a four-way tie at the top of this division with Carlmont and Los Altos. While Fremont and Woodside will be favored to end as co-champions this league should be highly competitive through the end of the year.

Mission North – The league’s remaining two unbeaten teams Scotts Valley and Seaside play this Saturday in Seaside. North Monterey County is still in contention with one league loss.

Santa Teresa Foothill - Branham is still the favorite to twin this league and will play Independence this week who is still undefeated in league play. Silver Creek beat Pioneer last week and is also undefeated in league play and is currently the sllght favorite for the second play-off spot.

Santa Teresa Valley – Leigh beat Willow Glen 17-7 in a contest between the league’s two highest ranked teams and puts Leigh in a great position to win the league. Willow Glen is a slight favorite over Sobrato and Overfelt to gain the second play-off spot. Willow Glen plays Sobrato this week.

PAL Lake –The leagues two remaining undefeated teams play this Friday when South San Francisco travels to Cupertino. Mills is still in contention with one loss.

Santa Lucia – Greenfield, Stevenson and Gonzales remain undefeated with Stevenson playing Greenfield this week. Green field is still a strong favorite to win this league.

West Valley - Prospect and Del Mar are both still undefeated in league play and figure to both be in that position when they will play in week 10 for the league championship.

Most excellent work again!!!!

 

[scvalfan]

Thanks for doing the math....An NCP Mt. Rushmore contributor.

 

[PAL Booster]

CCS Play-off Projections with Two Weeks To Go

Congratulations to the 20 teams that have clinched CCS play-off berths. 20 are still open but I would consider 11 locks or highly likely with another 9 still pretty open

Like the last few weeks a lot of chalk and very little disruption to the projections. The biggest changes this week came in the PAL-Ocean Division were Sequoia knocked undefeated Capuchino from the unbeaten ranks in an upset 24-21 and know has a great chance to make the play-offs. Also Oak Grove had a chance to virtually clinch a play-off spot but was soundly beaten by Leland 23-0. The last Mt. Hamilton spot is likely to come down to the week 10 winner between Lincoln and Leland. Sobrato replaced Willow Glen as the second representative projected from the Valley league. Finally, If Capuchino projected into the at-large pool it projects that Aptos doesn’t make the field at 3-7 as an at-large

Teams that have clinched a play-off spot are bolded

Division I

Open Group

8. Mitty 5-5 63 at 1. Serra 10-0 88

7. Wilcox 7-3 63.5 at. 2. St. Francis 7-3 78.5

Division I Group

6. Valley Christian 6-4 68.5 at 3. St. Ignatius 6-4 73.5

5. Los Gatos 8-2 71.5 at 4. Riordan 7-3 72



All WCAL teams, Salinas and Wilcox lost 0.5 points as Valley Christian went from being ranked in the top 100 to being in the top 150. Los Gatos lost 1.5 points as Grant lost to Monterey Trail and is no longer expected to win their league (St. Francis gained a point) and moved from the top 100 to the top 150. This loss of 1.5 projected point dropped Los Gatos from the #4 seed to the #5 seed.

Division II

8. Christopher 9-1 49.5 at 1. Salinas 7-3 61.5

5. Sacred Heart Prep 5-5 55 at 4. Live Oak 9-0 58.33

6. Hillsdale 9-1 53.5 at 3. Soquel 7-2 59.9

7. Monterey 7-3 52 at 2. Menlo 10-0 61

Capuchino dropped a division and Christopher moved up. Seeds 3-6 changed.

Division III

8. Capuchino 8-2 39.5 at 1. Carmel 10-0 49

5. Palma 3-7 44 at 4. Aragon 8-2 45

6. North Salinas 8-2 41 at 3. Scotts Valley 9-1 45.5

7. Alisal 8-2 41 at 2. Menlo-Atherton 4-6 47.5


Division IV

8. Seaside 7-3 at 1. Palo Alto 5-5 39.5

5. Branham 8-2 35.5 at 4. Woodside 8-2 36.5

6. Fremont 8-2 32 at 3. Mountain View 4-6 37.5

7. Burlingame 4-6 31.5 at 2. Leigh 8-2 38.5



Division V

8. Prospect 9-1 20.5 at 1. Greenfield 9-1 27.5

5. South San Francisco 9-1 23.5 at 4. Sobrato 6-4 26

6. Lincoln 4-6 22 at 3. Santa Teresa 5-5 26.5

7. Silver Creek 7-3 22 at 2. Sequoia 5-5 26.5


WCAL – The big news is that the six paly-off spots from the WCAL are set with Serra, St. Francis, Riordan, St. Ignatius, Valley Christian, and Mitty all guaranteed spots regardless of how the last two weeks play out. Serra, with their rout of Riordan figures to be the sole league champion. Riordan and St Francis play next week to determine second place in the league.

PAL-Bay. -Regardless of the results for the last two weeks, Los Gatos, Wilcox, Sacred Heart Prep, Menlo-Atherton and Burlingame have secured automatic spots. Mountain View will finish sixth but have a decent chance to secure a wild cared berth. Wilcox and Los Gatos play this week for the league championship.

Gabilan – This continues to be a highly competitive and unpredictable league. Salinas and Soquel have clinched automatic berths with two weeks left. Salinas is still the favorite to win the league outright but must overcome traditional rivals Palma and Hollister in their last two games. There is still a very tight race for the third and fourth automatic spots. Whoever finishes fifth will be a bubble team for an at-large berth. Current projections have Palma and Monterey tied for third at 3-3 in league and Aptos finishing in 5th.

PAL-DeAnza – Menlo and Hillsdale have clinched paly-off berths. Menlo wins the league outright if they beat 5th place Half Moon Bay or if Hillsdale and Kings Academy suffers another loss. Third place is likely to come down to the winner of the week 10 game between Kings Academy and Palo Alto. Only three automatic berths for this league.

Mt. Hamilton – Live Oak and Christopher have clinched play-off spots. Both figure to be undefeated when they face off in week for the league championship. Oak Grove had a great chance to gain a second league win and get the fourth automatic spot but their 23-0 loss to Leland means they will have to beat Santa Teresa and hope Leland losses to Lincoln in week 10 to make the play-offs. The more likely scenario is that the winner of the week 10 match between Lincoln and Leland will gain the fourth and final automatic spot.

PAL-Ocean – This league’s play-off picture was impacted by Sequoia’s 24-21 upset over previously unbeaten Capuchino. Aragon will play Capuchino this week. An Aragon win makes Aragon the lone league champion. A Capuchino win will create co-champions between Aragon and Capuchino. If Aragon wins it will drop Capuchino into a second place tie with the winner of the Sequoia and San Mateo game. If Capuchino is tied with San Mateo they would win the head to head tiebreaker, but Sequoia will gain the second automatic spot if they win and Capuchino losses. If Capuchino ends up odd man out they will be on the bubble for an at-large berth.

Mission South – Carmel clinches a spot with a win in either week 9 over Soledad or week 10 over Pacific Grove and would likely win a tiebreaker if they lose both games. The winner of the week 9 contest between North Salinas and Alisal will likely get the second automatic berth with the loser having a good chance of gaining an at-large berth.

PAL- El Camino – Three teams Fremont, Woodside and Los Altos are 3-1 in league play and tied on top with one week of league play to go. Woodside travels to Los Altos with the winner guaranteed of being no worse than league co-champion and gaining a play-off spot. Fremont plays Carlmont (currently 2-2 in league). If Fremont wins they gain an automatic paly-off spot and will be co-league champions. If Fremont losses they will be in a three way tie with Carlmont and the lose of the Los Altos Woodside game for the second an final spot. Woodside would win a tie breaker in a three-way tie. In. a three-way tie with Los Altos, Carlmont and Fremont would likely prevail with the tie breaker due to more CCS points.

Santa Teresa Valley – Leigh is likely to make the play-offs needing a win in either week 9 over Sobrato or week 10 over Westmont to finish no worse than co-champion. The race for second place is still up for grabs. Sobrato and Westmont both currently have one league loss but both have tot play the league’s only undefeated team Leigh. Overfelt and Willow Glen both have two league losses but will be favored in their last two league games. Numerous different scenarios that will likely go to week 10 to get sorted out.

Santa Teresa – Foothill – The leagues two remaining undefeated teams Branham and Silver Creek play each other in week 9. A Branham win will clinch a league play-off spot for Branham. A Silver Creek win may still require them to beat Independence in week 10 to guarantee a play-off spot.

PAL – Lake – South San Francisco clinched the leagues only playoff spot with a win over Cupertino this week.

Santa Lucia – The league championship is still going to come down to the week 10 game between Greenfield and Gonzales. While there is still a scenario or a three-way tie between Stevenson, Gonzales and Greenfield (that Greenfield would win). If Gonzales beats Stevenson this week the winner of the week 10 Greenfield and Gonzales game would win the league and get the sole berth. If Gonzales losses this week and Greenfield beats 1-7 Pajaro Valley, Greenfield would win a three way tie-breaker and Gonzales could only prevail if Stevenson lost in week 10 to Harbor.

West Valley – still likely to come down to the week 10 game between the leagues two remaining unbeaten teams Del Mar and Prospect. Del Mar must get by one loss Gunderson this week.

 

[FBAddict]

CCS Play-off Projections with Two Weeks To Go

Congratulations to the 20 teams that have clinched CCS play-off berths. 20 are still open but I would consider 11 locks or highly likely with another 9 still pretty open

Like the last few weeks a lot of chalk and very little disruption to the projections. The biggest changes this week came in the PAL-Ocean Division were Sequoia knocked undefeated Capuchino from the unbeaten ranks in an upset 24-21 and know has a great chance to make the play-offs. Also Oak Grove had a chance to virtually clinch a play-off spot but was soundly beaten by Leland 23-0. The last Mt. Hamilton spot is likely to come down to the week 10 winner between Lincoln and Leland. Sobrato replaced Willow Glen as the second representative projected from the Valley league. Finally, If Capuchino projected into the at-large pool it projects that Aptos doesn’t make the field at 3-7 as an at-large

Teams that have clinched a play-off spot are bolded

Division I

Open Group

8. Mitty 5-5 63 at 1. Serra 10-0 88

7. Wilcox 7-3 63.5 at. 2. St. Francis 7-3 78.5

Division I Group

6. Valley Christian 6-4 68.5 at 3. St. Ignatius 6-4 73.5

5. Los Gatos 8-2 71.5 at 4. Riordan 7-3 72



All WCAL teams, Salinas and Wilcox lost 0.5 points as Valley Christian went from being ranked in the top 100 to being in the top 150. Los Gatos lost 1.5 points as Grant lost to Monterey Trail and is no longer expected to win their league (St. Francis gained a point) and moved from the top 100 to the top 150. This loss of 1.5 projected point dropped Los Gatos from the #4 seed to the #5 seed.

Division II

8. Christopher 9-1 49.5 at 1. Salinas 7-3 61.5

5. Sacred Heart Prep 5-5 55 at 4. Live Oak 9-0 58.33

6. Hillsdale 9-1 53.5 at 3. Soquel 7-2 59.9

7. Monterey 7-3 52 at 2. Menlo 10-0 61

Capuchino dropped a division and Christopher moved up. Seeds 3-6 changed.

Division III

8. Capuchino 8-2 39.5 at 1. Carmel 10-0 49

5. Palma 3-7 44 at 4. Aragon 8-2 45

6. North Salinas 8-2 41 at 3. Scotts Valley 9-1 45.5

7. Alisal 8-2 41 at 2. Menlo-Atherton 4-6 47.5


Division IV

8. Seaside 7-3 at 1. Palo Alto 5-5 39.5

5. Branham 8-2 35.5 at 4. Woodside 8-2 36.5

6. Fremont 8-2 32 at 3. Mountain View 4-6 37.5

7. Burlingame 4-6 31.5 at 2. Leigh 8-2 38.5



Division V

8. Prospect 9-1 20.5 at 1. Greenfield 9-1 27.5

5. South San Francisco 9-1 23.5 at 4. Sobrato 6-4 26

6. Lincoln 4-6 22 at 3. Santa Teresa 5-5 26.5

7. Silver Creek 7-3 22 at 2. Sequoia 5-5 26.5


WCAL – The big news is that the six paly-off spots from the WCAL are set with Serra, St. Francis, Riordan, St. Ignatius, Valley Christian, and Mitty all guaranteed spots regardless of how the last two weeks play out. Serra, with their rout of Riordan figures to be the sole league champion. Riordan and St Francis play next week to determine second place in the league.

PAL-Bay. -Regardless of the results for the last two weeks, Los Gatos, Wilcox, Sacred Heart Prep, Menlo-Atherton and Burlingame have secured automatic spots. Mountain View will finish sixth but have a decent chance to secure a wild cared berth. Wilcox and Los Gatos play this week for the league championship.

Gabilan – This continues to be a highly competitive and unpredictable league. Salinas and Soquel have clinched automatic berths with two weeks left. Salinas is still the favorite to win the league outright but must overcome traditional rivals Palma and Hollister in their last two games. There is still a very tight race for the third and fourth automatic spots. Whoever finishes fifth will be a bubble team for an at-large berth. Current projections have Palma and Monterey tied for third at 3-3 in league and Aptos finishing in 5th.

PAL-DeAnza – Menlo and Hillsdale have clinched paly-off berths. Menlo wins the league outright if they beat 5th place Half Moon Bay or if Hillsdale and Kings Academy suffers another loss. Third place is likely to come down to the winner of the week 10 game between Kings Academy and Palo Alto. Only three automatic berths for this league.

Mt. Hamilton – Live Oak and Christopher have clinched play-off spots. Both figure to be undefeated when they face off in week for the league championship. Oak Grove had a great chance to gain a second league win and get the fourth automatic spot but their 23-0 loss to Leland means they will have to beat Santa Teresa and hope Leland losses to Lincoln in week 10 to make the play-offs. The more likely scenario is that the winner of the week 10 match between Lincoln and Leland will gain the fourth and final automatic spot.

PAL-Ocean – This league’s play-off picture was impacted by Sequoia’s 24-21 upset over previously unbeaten Capuchino. Aragon will play Capuchino this week. An Aragon win makes Aragon the lone league champion. A Capuchino win will create co-champions between Aragon and Capuchino. If Aragon wins it will drop Capuchino into a second place tie with the winner of the Sequoia and San Mateo game. If Capuchino is tied with San Mateo they would win the head to head tiebreaker, but Sequoia will gain the second automatic spot if they win and Capuchino losses. If Capuchino ends up odd man out they will be on the bubble for an at-large berth.

Mission South – Carmel clinches a spot with a win in either week 9 over Soledad or week 10 over Pacific Grove and would likely win a tiebreaker if they lose both games. The winner of the week 9 contest between North Salinas and Alisal will likely get the second automatic berth with the loser having a good chance of gaining an at-large berth.

PAL- El Camino – Three teams Fremont, Woodside and Los Altos are 3-1 in league play and tied on top with one week of league play to go. Woodside travels to Los Altos with the winner guaranteed of being no worse than league co-champion and gaining a play-off spot. Fremont plays Carlmont (currently 2-2 in league). If Fremont wins they gain an automatic paly-off spot and will be co-league champions. If Fremont losses they will be in a three way tie with Carlmont and the lose of the Los Altos Woodside game for the second an final spot. Woodside would win a tie breaker in a three-way tie. In. a three-way tie with Los Altos, Carlmont and Fremont would likely prevail with the tie breaker due to more CCS points.

Santa Teresa Valley – Leigh is likely to make the play-offs needing a win in either week 9 over Sobrato or week 10 over Westmont to finish no worse than co-champion. The race for second place is still up for grabs. Sobrato and Westmont both currently have one league loss but both have tot play the league’s only undefeated team Leigh. Overfelt and Willow Glen both have two league losses but will be favored in their last two league games. Numerous different scenarios that will likely go to week 10 to get sorted out.

Santa Teresa – Foothill – The leagues two remaining undefeated teams Branham and Silver Creek play each other in week 9. A Branham win will clinch a league play-off spot for Branham. A Silver Creek win may still require them to beat Independence in week 10 to guarantee a play-off spot.

PAL – Lake – South San Francisco clinched the leagues only playoff spot with a win over Cupertino this week.

Santa Lucia – The league championship is still going to come down to the week 10 game between Greenfield and Gonzales. While there is still a scenario or a three-way tie between Stevenson, Gonzales and Greenfield (that Greenfield would win). If Gonzales beats Stevenson this week the winner of the week 10 Greenfield and Gonzales game would win the league and get the sole berth. If Gonzales losses this week and Greenfield beats 1-7 Pajaro Valley, Greenfield would win a three way tie-breaker and Gonzales could only prevail if Stevenson lost in week 10 to Harbor.

West Valley – still likely to come down to the week 10 game between the leagues two remaining unbeaten teams Del Mar and Prospect. Del Mar must get by one loss Gunderson this week.

Excellent explanation of changes and why the changes occurred!!!

 

[tired of this]

"All WCAL teams, Salinas and Wilcox lost 0.5 points as Valley Christian went from being ranked in the top 100 to being in the top 150. Los Gatos lost 1.5 points as Grant lost to Monterey Trail and is no longer expected to win their league (St. Francis gained a point) and moved from the top 100 to the top 150. This loss of 1.5 projected point dropped Los Gatos from the #4 seed to the #5 seed."

October 15 October 22
Mitty 63 63
Wilcox 64 63.5
Serra 88.5 88
SF 78.5 78.5
VC 68.5 68.5
SI 74 73.5
LG 73 71.5
Salinas 62.5 61.5

Some lost points from last week as mentioned above, but some stayed the same?

 

[PAL Booster]

"All WCAL teams, Salinas and Wilcox lost 0.5 points as Valley Christian went from being ranked in the top 100 to being in the top 150. Los Gatos lost 1.5 points as Grant lost to Monterey Trail and is no longer expected to win their league (St. Francis gained a point) and moved from the top 100 to the top 150. This loss of 1.5 projected point dropped Los Gatos from the #4 seed to the #5 seed."

October 15 October 22
Mitty 63 63
Wilcox 64 63.5
Serra 88.5 88
SF 78.5 78.5
VC 68.5 68.5
SI 74 73.5
LG 73 71.5
Salinas 62.5 61.5

Some lost points from last week as mentioned above, but some stayed the same?

I detailed some of the changes but not all of the changes - so for example Mitty - Mitty lost 0.5 points as VC moved from being in the top 100 to being in the top 150. Mitty gained 0.5 this week as Logan's rating went above 8.0 which makes them an A opponent as opposed to a B opponent when their ranking was below 8.0 - For most of the season Bishop O'Dowd has been the favorite to win their West Alameda Foothill league - as of a couple of weeks ago that shifted to Logan which added a point to Mitty's projection a few weeks ago. For St. Francis while they lost the half point for VC they gained a half point for Monterey Trail now being top 100 instead of top 150 where they were last week. SF also gained a point from Monterey Trail being the favorite to win their league after beating Grant - but lost a point when Helix who was projected to win their league lost to Granite Hills. Valley Christian is a typo - should be 68. Salinas had both Clayton Valley and Valley Christian go from top 100 to top 150. - the rest are explained.


The difficult things that have to be tracked manually are the out of section rating that is dynamic that makes a team an A, B or C team for scheduling purposes. The 1.5 point for playing or being a top state 100 team or 1 point for being or playing a team ranked between 101-150 and the point for playing a league champion - need to check out of section leagues to see if projected league champion has changed or not for CCS teams.

 

[tired of this]

Thank you. Much appreciated.

 

[RLS13]

Scott's Valley beat Seaside on Saturday and remains undefeated in the Mission North. They are not guaranteed a playoff spot yet, but will be favored vs North Monterey County next week and a heavy favorite vs Santa Cruz the last week.

 

[Ballsout1997]

Great work as always @PAL Booster.

How are out of state teams calculated? Sequoia and Palma had out of state teams. Sequoia's team had a rough year, however Palma's Team (Yuma Catholic) is 8-0 and looking to be highly ranked in Arizona. How do you find a team's Cal Preps national ranking?

** Award 1.5 points for playing an Out of State team with a national ranking higher than a California team in the Calpreps.com top 100; Award 1.0 point for playing an Out of State with a national ranking higher than a California team in the Calpreps.com top 150. ** (as listed at 8am on the day of the seeding meeting)

Thanks for all your work year after year on playoff projections.

 

[PAL Booster]

Out of state teams are calculated the same as out of section teams. If their Calpreps ranking is 8.0 or higher they are an A team, if they are between -19.9 and 7.9 they are a B team and if they are worse than -20 they are a C team. If the teams ranking is above 28.5% they are consider a top 100 team and would give their CCS opponent additional 1.5 points. If they have a cal preps ranking above 20.9 they are a top 150 team and would give their CCS one bonus point. Palma's opponent Yuma Catholic has a 28.3 ranking which gives Palma a single point. Yuma Catholic plays for their league championship this week which can give Palma an additional point.

 

[Cal 14]

I think Soquel is credited with a forfeit win over Santa Cruz in the week of September 8th. That should make their current record 7-2. I know that Calpreps has not been publishing forfeits, but I believe the CCS may include them.

 

[PAL Booster]

CCS Play-off Projections with One Week To Go

29 of the 40 spots for the play-offs are secured. Eleven spots will come down to the final week.
Automatic Berths
4th place in the Gabilan.
3rd spot in the DeAnza
4th place in the Mt. Hamilton
1st and 2nd place in the Valley
2nd place in the Foothill
1 st place in Santa Lucia
1 st place in West Valley
3rd -5th at Large spots Currently projected to be North Salinas, Mountain View, and Hollister narrowly edging out Palo Alto.
Again – based on favorites winning out in week 10 here are the projections

Division I
Open Group
8. Mitty 5-5 63.5 (8) at 1. Serra 10-0 88.5 (1)
7. Wilcox 7-3 64 (7) at. 2. St. Francis 7-3 78.5 (2)

Division I Group
6. Valley Christian 6-4 69.5 (6) at 3. St. Ignatius 6-4 74 (3)
5. Los Gatos 8-2 71.5 (5) at 4. Riordan 7-3 72.5 (4)

No change from last week in seeds last week. Valley Christian moved back into the top 100 so everyone who played them and VC gained 0.5 points. St. Francis lost 0.5 point when Monterey Trail dropped out of top 100 to top 150. Salinas moved into the top 150 giving VC an extra point. Week 10 projects losses for Mitty and SI with wins for everyone else. The only question I have here is if De La Salle is classified as a league champion for Serra and St. Francis. I assume it does and gave them both that additional point.

Mitty and Salinas are projected to end up tied with Mitty getting the tie breaker due to a higher CCS ranking Mitty is #8 at 25, Salinas is #9 at 23.4. Mitty is projected to lose to VC and Salinas is projected to beat Hollister. It is likely that Salinas would have to jump above Mitty in the Cal Preps ranking to change the current seeding.

Division II
8. Carmel 10-0 50 (31 in DIII) at 1. Salinas 7-3 63.5 (1)
5. Sacred Heart Prep 5-5 55 (5) at 4. Live Oak 9-0 56.83 (4)
6. Monterey 7-3 52.5 (7) at 3.Menlo 10-0 61 (2)
7. Christopher 9-1 50.5 (8) at 2.Soquel 8-2 61.5 (3)

Changes over last week include Hillsdale dropping from DII to DIII after their upset loss to Kings Academy and for the time being Carmel moving up to DII. Another significant change is that Salinas moved into the top 150 in the state ranking giving Salinas and all Gabilan teams an extra point. Salinas also picked up a half point when Clayton Valley upset California and moved from the top 150 to the top 100.

CalPreps has Soquel playing a 9 game schedule. Cal14 says that Soquel actually gained a forfeit victory over Santa Cruz earlier in the year. With a forfeit victory Soquel would gain 0.6 points more than if they played a 9 game schedule and this would move hem ahead of Menlo in the projected seeding.

These seedings project a losses in toss up games #12 SHP against #11 Menlo and #18 Christopher against #17 Live Oak in week 10 and wins for everyone else. Upsets here won’t probably change the field but would definitely impact seeding.

Division III
8. Aragon 7-3 39.5 (4) at 1. Menlo-Atherton 4-6 49.5 (2)
5. Palma 3-7 44.5 (5) at 4. Capuchino 9-1 45 (8)
6. Alisal 9-1 43 (7) at 3. Scotts Valley 9-1 45.5 (3)
7. Hollister 3-6 40.33 (not in field) at 2. Hillsdale 8-2 47.5 (#6 in DII)

Changes in this division came from Hollister upsetting Aptos, Kings Academy’s upset over Hillsdale, Capuchino beating Aragon and Alisal beating North Salinas. North Salinas got moved down to DIV. Hollister and Palma have not fully secured play-off berths going into week 10.

Division IV
8. Seaside 7-3 29.5 (8) at 1. Kings Academy 5-4 37.02 (not in field)
5. Branham 8-2 35 (5) at 4. Leigh 7-3 35 (2)
6. Burlingame 4-6 33 (7) at 3. North Salinas 7-3 36.5 (#6 in DIII)
7. Sobrato 7-3 30.5 (not in field)) at 2. Mountain View 4-6 37 (3)

Biggest impact here from week 9 was El Camino Division upsets which saw Los Altos beat Woodside and move them from the #4 seed to D V and Carlmont upsetting Fremont and knocking them from the play-off field. Former #1 seed Palo Alto is currently projected out of the field.

Division V
8. Leland 3-7 18.5 (not in Field) at 1. Greenfield 9-1 28.5 (1)
5. Los Altos 5-5 22 (not in Field) at 4. South San Francisco 9-1 25 (5)
6. Silver Creek 7-3 22 (7) at 3. Santa Teresa 5-5 27 (3)
7. Prospect 9-1 20.5 (7) at 2. Woodside 6-4 30 (#4 in DIV)

Four of these teams have not clinched their berths so there could be changes here. Los Altos gained a berth by upsetting Woodside and winning the El Camino division.

WCAL – Week 9 went as projected. Not much to play for in week 10 for these teams. Four automatic berths in place with Serra, St. Francis, Riordan and SI. Mitty and Valley Christian are guaranteed at-larger berths.

PAL-Bay. – Los Gatos edged Wilcon 24-21 on a last minute touchdown . A week 10 Los Gatos win against Menlo-Atherton secures a sole championship for Los Gatos. Los Gatos, Wilcox, Sacred Heart Prep, Menlo-Atherton and Burlingame have clinched the leagues 5 play-off berths. Mountain View will get in as an at-large team if they beat Los Altos in week 10. If they lose they will likely not get a berth.

Gabilan – Salians is the sole league champion with either a win over Hollister or a Soquel loss to Aptos. Salinas, Soquel and Monterey have clinched berths.

The final automat berth is still in play with numerous scenarios. There are clear scenarios for Palma, Hollister and Alvarez to gain the last spot. I don’t think there is scenario where Aptos can win an automatic berth. The projection is that it will go Palma if they beat Alverez and Salinas beats Hollister. If both Hollister and Palma win there is a three way tie for third with the automatic spots going to Monterey and Hollister. Alvarez would win a three-way tiebreaker with Palma and Hollister which would occur if Alverez beats Palm aand Slainas beats Hollister. There is a wild scenario where there is a four-way tie if Alvarez beats Palma, Salinas beats Hollister, and Aptos beats Soquel. In that case Palma and Alvarez would be 2-1 in head-to-head against the other three teams and Hollister and Aptos are 1-2. I believe that since no one would win the head to head tiebreaker it would be settled by CCS points which would go to Hollister.

In any event Hollister is right on the bubble for the final at-large berth even with a loss to Salinas. Aptos could also be on the bubble for an at-large berth with a win over Soquel.

PAL-DeAnza – Menlo clinched the Championship and Hillsdale has secured an automtic berth. The final spot will be determine by the week 10 game between Kings Academy and Palo Alto. If Kings Academy wins they are in. A Palo Alto win creates a three way tie for second place with Hillsdale and Kings Academy) it would go tot CCS points. Which would put Hillsdale and Pal Alto in over Kings Academy. If current projections hold, the loser of Kings Academy and Palo Alto would fall just short of the final at-large berth.

Mt. Hamilton – The championship will be decided in a showdown of undefeated teams between Live Oak and Christopher. Santa Teresa has clinched a berth. The last three teams are all in contention for the fourth at-large berth. Here is each of their scenarios.

Oak Grove – Must beat Santa Teresa and have Lincoln beat Leland. If Oak Grove and Leland both win there I a three way tie for 3-5 and Santa Teresa would have the most CCS points, Oak Grove and Leland would have the same. Not sure at this point if it would be a coin toss or Leland’s head-to-head win would prevail.

Leland – In if they beat Lincoln and Oak Grove losses. If they beat Lincoln and Oak Grove wins see three way tie scenario described above.

Lincoln – Must beat Leland and have Oak Grove loss to Santa Teresa. Lincoln would win a three-way tiebreaker with Leland and Oak Grove.

PAL-Ocean – Capuchino upset Aragon 21-14 to create co-champions for this league and these two teams get the two ply-off spots. No one else has secured enough points to be in at-large contention.

Mission South – Alisal won the week 9 showdown with North Salinas 28-14. Carmel and Alisal have clinched the league’s two play-off berths. Carmel wins the league outright with a win over Pacific Grove or an Alisal loss to San Juan Hills. North Salinas does not play in week 10 and is in great position to gain an at-large berth.

PAL- El Camino – a wild final week of league play saw Los Alto upset Woodside and Carlmont upset Fremont to Give Los Altos the sole league championship. Woodside wins the three way tiebreaker with Fremont and Carlmont for the second berth as they went 2-0 in head to head play against the other teams.

Santa Teresa Valley – Still wide open with four teams in contention for two spots. Leigh plays Westmont and the winner is in. Overfelt plays Sobrato. If Sobrato wins they are in. If Overfelt wins it will create a three way tie for second. If Westmont losses and is the third team in the tiebreaker Overfellt will win the tiebreaker based on head-to-head results. If Leigh losses and is in the three way tiebreaker Leigh will win the tiebreaker on CCS points.

Santa Teresa – Foothill – Branham has clinched a spot. The winner of the week 10 game between Independence and Silver Creek will get the second spot.

PAL – Lake – South San Francisco has clinched this spot.

Santa Lucia – With Stevenson beating Gonzales in week 9, they made Greenfield highly likely to get the play-off spot regardless of the final result of the Greenfield vs Gonzales game in week 10. If Greenfield wins they win the league outright. If Greenfield losses and Stevenson beats Harbor it creates a three-way tie and Greenfield wins the tiebreaker. Gonzales becomes the league’s representative if they beat Greenfield and Stevenson losses as Gonzales would then win a two team tiebreaker with Greenfield.

West Valley – Winner between the league’s two undefeated teams Del Mar and Prospect will win the sole automatic berth.

 

[PAL Booster]

At Large Picture



Here is how the at-large berth picture looks after week 9 with week 10 projections.

	CCS Pts	CP Rank	Total	Rank	Week 10 projection
Valley Christian	34.5​	15​	49.5​	1​	Win
Mitty	30.5​	14​	44.5​	2​	Loss
Mountain View	23​	10​	33​	4​	Win
Palo Alto	21​	11​	32​	6​	Loss
North Salinas	20.5​	12​	32.5​	5​	Not playing
Fremont	20.5​	5​	25.5​	9​	Win
Hollister	20.33​	13​	33.33​	3​	Loss
Milpitas	19.5​	9​	28.5​	7​	Win
Monte Vista Christian	19.5​	4​	23.5​	12​	Win
Pacific Grove	19​	6​	25​	10​	Loss
San Mateo	18.5​	8​	26.5​	8​	Loss
Westmont	18.5​	2​	20.5​	14​	Loss
Willow Glen	18.4​	3​	21.4​	13​	Win
Cupertino	17​	1​	18​	15​	Win
Alvarez	17​	7​	24​	11​	Loss

Other key teams with At-large Scenarios



Aptos – Aptos needs to beat Soquel to even get into the top 15 teams for At-large berth. If they do they would have 18.5 CCS points. They are currently ranked 25th in the CCS behind Hollister who is 23rd. They would likely jump Hollister with an upset win and get 13 ranking points which would give them a total of 31.5. Not enough to get in unless Mountain View losses or Hollister wins an automatic berth and is pulled out of the At-Large berth.



Palma – If they don’t get an expected automatic berth despite a win this week they would enter the at-large pool with 18.5 CCS points and get 13 rnaking points and up at 31.5. they would only be in the at-large pool with a win if Hollister gets the automatic berth. If they are in with Aptos Aptos would go down in CCS ranking to 12 and Palma would be ranked above them.

 

[tired of this]

Is there a realistic chance Salinas could overtake Mitty? How much do those Calpreps rankings change on a week to week basis? Or have you already factored that in?

 

[PAL Booster]

I don't have the Calpreps rating factored into the future.

If you look at the new match-ups Valley Christian has a 31.4 ranking and Mitty 24.9 - so VC is expecting to win by about 7. If the game is within a touchdown I don't think you will see Mitty go down very much. If Mitty gets beaten by 20 or 30 points then they might slide into where Salinas can overtake them.

On the other side Salinas has a rating of 23.4 and Hollister has a rating of 6.1 So Salinas is expected to win by about 17 points (Calpreps doesn't recognize margin of victory over 35 points) so there is not much room for Salinas to improve even with a pretty big win over Hollister. If Hollister keeps the game close Salinas might see their rating decrease.

In the background is what happens to both teams opponents - especially non-league opponents during the week which is hard to calculate how much impact it will have on both teams.

 

[tired of this]

Thank you

 

[carmelkyd]

Admittedly I am whining. But Carmel in D2? The only B league team in either D1 or 2. An 850 student public school. Yes, Carmel is likely to finish 10 - 0. Non league wins over the last place team in an A league, two B league teams (one which is 0 - 9) and a C league team. Appears there are 24 A league teams in the play-offs this year. Put them in D1, 2 and 3. Let the B and C league teams fight it out in D4 and 5. If there are not 24 A league teams in the play-offs in any year, move the "best" B league teams up into D3 (but no higher.)

 

[thehookup55]

Admittedly I am whining. But Carmel in D2? The only B league team in either D1 or 2. An 850 student public school. Yes, Carmel is likely to finish 10 - 0. Non league wins over the last place team in an A league, two B league teams (one which is 0 - 9) and a C league team. Appears there are 24 A league teams in the play-offs this year. Put them in D1, 2 and 3. Let the B and C league teams fight it out in D4 and 5. If there are not 24 A league teams in the play-offs in any year, move the "best" B league teams up into D3 (but no higher.)

Carmel should protest and throw the game against PG.

 

[RLS13]

Carmel should protest and throw the game against PG.

If it was not PG, I would not put it past Carmel coaching staff to give some younger kids an opportunity to compete. Maybe "slow" the game down a little. But not vs PG. There is no way that they will let off the gas until the very end of the game.

 

[Cortezraiders831]

Admittedly I am whining. But Carmel in D2? The only B league team in either D1 or 2. An 850 student public school. Yes, Carmel is likely to finish 10 - 0. Non league wins over the last place team in an A league, two B league teams (one which is 0 - 9) and a C league team. Appears there are 24 A league teams in the play-offs this year. Put them in D1, 2 and 3. Let the B and C league teams fight it out in D4 and 5. If there are not 24 A league teams in the play-offs in any year, move the "best" B league teams up into D3 (but no higher.)

And to think this is only happening because of some sham "forfeits" by Palma who at 6-4 would be somewhere in D2 in terms of points. Whoever that 8 seed ends up being should in reality be the 1 seed in Div 3. And while a bracket with Soquel, Monterey, Live Oak is very much so a grouping of your peers I see the frustration with being lined up out of the gate with a team like Salinas. #PrayforCarmel

 

[Cal 14]

Is there a realistic chance Salinas could overtake Mitty? How much do those Calpreps rankings change on a week to week basis? Or have you already factored that in?

Yes, it is possible. Ideally, the Cowboys would like three things to happen...

1. Mitty to upset Valley Christian (this would completely seal the deal to remain in D-II).

2. Don't annihilate Hollister. If they keep the win to 14-17, their rating may not be impacted much.

3. De La Salle clobbers Clayton Valley. If the Ugly Eagles stay within 24 points of the Spartans, their rating likely remains intact, which provides Salinas a half playoff point.

Of these three things, the most likely is #3, but that won't be enough to prevent a switch.

 

[Cal 14]

I don't have the Calpreps rating factored into the future.

If you look at the new match-ups Valley Christian has a 31.4 ranking and Mitty 24.9 - so VC is expecting to win by about 7. If the game is within a touchdown I don't think you will see Mitty go down very much. If Mitty gets beaten by 20 or 30 points then they might slide into where Salinas can overtake them.

On the other side Salinas has a rating of 23.4 and Hollister has a rating of 6.1 So Salinas is expected to win by about 17 points (Calpreps doesn't recognize margin of victory over 35 points) so there is not much room for Salinas to improve even with a pretty big win over Hollister. If Hollister keeps the game close Salinas might see their rating decrease.

In the background is what happens to both teams opponents - especially non-league opponents during the week which is hard to calculate how much impact it will have on both teams.

Well, not exactly. Any win gives a minimum of 15 points. So VC could beat Mitty by 1 and the game would go down by a 15-point win in the system.

A Warrior win actually has a double-negative effect for Salinas. Yes, Mitty's rating will go down (again, even with 1-point loss), but VC's rating will go up. That also will slightly increase the Cowboys' rating by making their loss "less bad".

The max margin currently is 31.

 

[thehookup55]

And to think this is only happening because of some sham "forfeits" by Palma who at 6-4 would be somewhere in D2 in terms of points. Whoever that 8 seed ends up being should in reality be the 1 seed in Div 3. And while a bracket with Soquel, Monterey, Live Oak is very much so a grouping of your peers I see the frustration with being lined up out of the gate with a team like Salinas. #PrayforCarmel

Oh cmon, sham "forfeits"? Thats ridiculous. You might as well accuse Hillsdale of throwing their game last week against Kings Academy to avoid DII. Reality of it is the only sham here is the CCS playoff format.

Every team in that division is getting sacrificed to the team or 2 that missed out on DI. The only difference is this year its to a team with a winning record and not a bottom of the barrel WCAL team. You can go division by division and the likely winner will be teams that have losing records or who are right around .500 entering playoffs. Same thing happened last year.

 

[colhenrylives]

My head hurts.

 

[Cal 14]

Reality of it is the only sham here is the CCS playoff format.

Every team in that division is getting sacrificed to the team or 2 that missed out on DI. The only difference is this year its to a team with a winning record and not a bottom of the barrel WCAL team. You can go division by division and the likely winner will be teams that have losing records or who are right around .500 entering playoffs. Same thing happened last year.

What would you have that's different?

You want an NCS-type format that is mostly enrollment based? You do realize that Palma would still be in D-III or D-IV, right? Is that your better solution?

The schools in the section wanted an elimination of the blowouts and that's what they largely got.

No matter what the CCS does, people will always complain.

 

[Cortezraiders831]

Oh cmon, sham "forfeits"? Thats ridiculous. You might as well accuse Hillsdale of throwing their game last week against Kings Academy to avoid DII. Reality of it is the only sham here is the CCS playoff format.

Every team in that division is getting sacrificed to the team or 2 that missed out on DI. The only difference is this year its to a team with a winning record and not a bottom of the barrel WCAL team. You can go division by division and the likely winner will be teams that have losing records or who are right around .500 entering playoffs. Same thing happened last year.

I guess by sham I meant more that a "punishment" serves as a boost in terms of playoff placement.

And agree the playoffs in CCS are wildly a joke. Everything from losing records having a better shot at advancing to the fact that automatic qualifiers are still being used to secure playoff spots that may not be as worthy.

 

[Cortezraiders831]

What would you have that's different?

You want an NCS-type format that is mostly enrollment based? You do realize that Palma would still be in D-III or D-IV, right? Is that your better solution?

The schools in the section wanted an elimination of the blowouts and that's what they largely got.

No matter what the CCS does, people will always complain.

A few improvements:

Face reality that there are not 8 "Open Division" level teams. This would make the D2, D3, etc.. brackets more challenging, competitive as well as (say they take 6 to open) two teams would drop down to each lower division.

Make D4 & D5 exclusive to B/C leagues. Carmel for example is a great team for that school. Let them go against others like Capachino, Hillsdale, Aragon, Alisal rematch, etc.. That would be a super competitive D4 bracket. This btw would still let A league teams who aren't as good still have a shot, for the D3 bracket.

Rethink the automatic qualifiers. They obviously still have a place and you see in some of those B leagues just how important getting one of those spots is but it's lead to some interesting playoff teams that maybe aren't nearly as worthy.

 

[paul s]

At Large Picture



Here is how the at-large berth picture looks after week 9 with week 10 projections.

	CCS Pts	CP Rank	Total	Rank	Week 10 projection
Valley Christian	34.5​	15​	49.5​	1​	Win
Mitty	30.5​	14​	44.5​	2​	Loss
Mountain View	23​	10​	33​	4​	Win
Palo Alto	21​	11​	32​	6​	Loss
North Salinas	20.5​	12​	32.5​	5​	Not playing
Fremont	20.5​	5​	25.5​	9​	Win
Hollister	20.33​	13​	33.33​	3​	Loss
Milpitas	19.5​	9​	28.5​	7​	Win
Monte Vista Christian	19.5​	4​	23.5​	12​	Win
Pacific Grove	19​	6​	25​	10​	Loss
San Mateo	18.5​	8​	26.5​	8​	Loss
Westmont	18.5​	2​	20.5​	14​	Loss
Willow Glen	18.4​	3​	21.4​	13​	Win
Cupertino	17​	1​	18​	15​	Win
Alvarez	17​	7​	24​	11​	Loss

Other key teams with At-large Scenarios



Aptos – Aptos needs to beat Soquel to even get into the top 15 teams for At-large berth. If they do they would have 18.5 CCS points. They are currently ranked 25th in the CCS behind Hollister who is 23rd. They would likely jump Hollister with an upset win and get 13 ranking points which would give them a total of 31.5. Not enough to get in unless Mountain View losses or Hollister wins an automatic berth and is pulled out of the At-Large berth.



Palma – If they don’t get an expected automatic berth despite a win this week they would enter the at-large pool with 18.5 CCS points and get 13 rnaking points and up at 31.5. they would only be in the at-large pool with a win if Hollister gets the automatic berth. If they are in with Aptos Aptos would go down in CCS ranking to 12 and Palma would be ranked above them.

Regarding kings academy. You have them at 37 points but if they win as you projected them to they would be 6-3
Isn't that more than 37 points? How did you come to that number? Also how do they decide if there is a three-way tie for the two spots which could happen if kings loses?.

 

[hsfb44]

Regarding kings academy. You have them at 37 points but if they win as you projected them to they would be 6-3
Isn't that more than 37 points? How did you come to that number? Also how do they decide if there is a three-way tie for the two spots which could happen if kings loses?.

three way tie is broken as follows: head to head then record vs teams above in standings (all lost to menlo) then record of teams below (all won vs HMB and Homestead) then CCS points. I am curious on TKA points as well. at 5-4 it would not be 37. I think he has them at 6-3. If palo alto wins I think its Hillsdale and Paly as 2nd and 3rd auto and Kings will have to apply at large.

 

[Cal 14]

A few improvements:

Face reality that there are not 8 "Open Division" level teams. This would make the D2, D3, etc.. brackets more challenging, competitive as well as (say they take 6 to open) two teams would drop down to each lower division.

The San Diego Section puts 4 teams in their Open, then goes from D-I down. Yes, the CCS could and probably should do this. If the section kept D-I through D-V, then it would add 4 additional playoff teams. While a lot of locals whine about watering down the playoffs, it should be noted that only about 25% of the teams in the SDS fail to make the playoffs, while 44 teams in the CCS would still be below 50%.

Make D4 & D5 exclusive to B/C leagues. Carmel for example is a great team for that school. Let them go against others like Capachino, Hillsdale, Aragon, Alisal rematch, etc.. That would be a super competitive D4 bracket. This btw would still let A league teams who aren't as good still have a shot, for the D3 bracket.

We go through this every... single... year.

This is not the philosophy of the CCS and it never has been. The section already provides an easier path to the playoffs by making the leagues/divisions based on competitive equity. The B and C league teams do not also get a weaker playoff division on top of that. The section always has striven to advance the top 40 teams in the section to the playoffs.

Now, I do think there is a small problem with that. The very small south Monterey county public schools (as an example) will never rise to the level of A league teams and it's not really their fault. So, I would agree that A teams should not be in D-V. D-IV is fair game, though.

Rethink the automatic qualifiers. They obviously still have a place and you see in some of those B leagues just how important getting one of those spots is but it's lead to some interesting playoff teams that maybe aren't nearly as worthy.

Not worthy? Based on what parameters? A 5-5 team playing in an exceptional A league vs a 7-3 team playing in a really weak B league? Would the A team not go 7-3 or better in that B league? Would the B team not go 4-6 or worse in the A league? Most 5-5 A teams would handily beat 7-3 B teams.

B teams always have the ability to schedule A teams in non-league and demonstrate themselves to be at that level, if they choose... you know, to demonstrate they're "worthy".


What I would propose is to first eliminate the playoff participation component of how league classifications are determined. Right now, the more playoff games a league/division has, the greater the points toward classification. The problem with that is that a really weak A division like the MHAL gets a lot of automatic bids because it's an A league, automatically earning it a lot of playoff participation points. It's circular logic. Elimination of this would likely make the MHAL a B league like it really is, eliminating some automatic bids.

I would also say that no more than 5 teams from any league should advance.

These two changes along with no A league teams in D-V and a 4-team Open Division to go with D-I thru V.

 

[thehookup55]

What would you have that's different?

You want an NCS-type format that is mostly enrollment based? You do realize that Palma would still be in D-III or D-IV, right? Is that your better solution?

The schools in the section wanted an elimination of the blowouts and that's what they largely got.

No matter what the CCS does, people will always complain.

Blowouts are going to happen. It still happens. Last year outside of DI there were only 7 games that were decided by 8 points or less accross 4 divisions. Thats 3/4 of the games being decided by 2 scores or more. Thats not very competitive. Teams with losing records are still winning CCS championships. How does the current format eliminate blowouts?

I preferred something similar to the 3 open divisions based on enrollment format they had a few years ago. Doesn't have to be this exact format but something comparable. Put all A league teams in the Opens. Have set divisions be for B/C leagues with an option to opt into the opens. Those divisions be eliminated from state contention. Sure we run into the problem of sending runner ups to state but a runner up in an open division is more worthy than the 33rd place team.

They could put different enrollment provisions on privates. Something like 1500+ you are DI, 750+ DII, 750 of less DIII. I'm not sure there will ever be a solution to the private vs public debate. If I am an A league 1000 enrollment public school, I shouldn't be afraid of a private with less than 500 kids. This is a rough rant. I am not going to go too much into the logistics because my opinion doesnt matter. I think a format with league classifications and enrollment is best though.

I agree there will never be a format that makes everyone happy. I appreciate CCS wilingness to adjust and try new formats, but the constant changes opens them up even more to be criticized. It will be a never ending cycle of them attempting to please people.

 

[sslg]

Blowouts are going to happen. It still happens. Last year outside of DI there were only 7 games that were decided by 8 points or less accross 4 divisions. Thats 3/4 of the games being decided by 2 scores or more. Thats not very competitive. Teams with losing records are still winning CCS championships. How does the current format eliminate blowouts?

I preferred something similar to the 3 open divisions based on enrollment format they had a few years ago. Doesn't have to be this exact format but something comparable. Put all A league teams in the Opens. Have set divisions be for B/C leagues with an option to opt into the opens. Those divisions be eliminated from state contention. Sure we run into the problem of sending runner ups to state but a runner up in an open division is more worthy than the 33rd place team.

They could put different enrollment provisions on privates. Something like 1500+ you are DI, 750+ DII, 750 of less DIII. I'm not sure there will ever be a solution to the private vs public debate. If I am an A league 1000 enrollment public school, I shouldn't be afraid of a private with less than 500 kids. This is a rough rant. I am not going to go too much into the logistics because my opinion doesnt matter. I think a format with league classifications and enrollment is best though.

I agree there will never be a format that makes everyone happy. I appreciate CCS wilingness to adjust and try new formats, but the constant changes opens them up even more to be criticized. It will be a never ending cycle of them attempting to please people.

The NCS and CCS should combine for the playoffs. Have a 4-team Open (let’s say Serra, DLS, SRV and either Pitt or St. Francis (I’m just playing “what-ifs” here). Those eliminated fall into enrollment-based divisions (Riordan/Valley Christian/Cardinal Newman/Windsor/Campolindo go D3, SI/Amador/Acalanes/Mitty/Marin Catholic go D2 and Los Gatos/Wilcox/El Cerrito/Monte Vista/Liberty go D1….(I don’t know enrollments, I’m just thinking out loud). The playoffs would be so much more entertaining and meaningful. There’s a way to do it, but smarter minds than I could figure it out. 3 12-team divisions after the open and then 2 16-team “D4 and D5” playoffs to qualify for bowl games. This would allow 68-70 teams to the playoffs and be so much better. We’ve got to get away from the “we were the best of the worst teams” mentality.

Edit: And this should include the Oakland and SF sections. This should have been done 40 years ago.

 

[PAL Booster]

Regarding kings academy. You have them at 37 points but if they win as you projected them to they would be 6-3
Isn't that more than 37 points? How did you come to that number? Also how do they decide if there is a three-way tie for the two spots which could happen if kings loses?.

For Kings Academy I have the following. 7.5 Schedule points having played 7 A teams, 1 B team (Rio Honda Prep who could move up to an A team next week and give them and extra 0.5 pts) and a C team (Lowell). IF they win they will get 12 points for their 6 wins. They get 1 point for playing Menlo a division champion and they get 1.52 points as they only played nine games. So 7.5+12+1+1.52 = 22.02 CCS points. Then you do the stacked ranking of teams from 1-40 in the CCS play-offs from CalPreps Kings Academy gets 15 points = 37.02.

The way that most leagues calculate tiebreakers is as follows:

1. Head to Head
2. CCS Points
3. Some then go to to Calpreps, some go to coin flip, some go to who had the best league win

Kings only ends up in a tie breaker if they lose. so I have them 1-1 in head to head against Hillsdale and Palo Alto and the final CCS points would be Hillsdale 25.5 with a win over Aragon 24.5 if they lose; Palo Alto with 23 points and Kings Academy with 19.76 points which is why Kings Academy losses the tie breaker.

They would drop into the At-large pool and would probably add 10 or 11 Calprep points but likely be the 6th highest ranked at-large team with only the top 5 qualifying,

 

[colhenrylives]

The NCS and CCS should combine for the playoffs. Have a 4-team Open (let’s say Serra, DLS, SRV and either Pitt or St. Francis (I’m just playing “what-ifs” here). Those eliminated fall into enrollment-based divisions (Riordan/Valley Christian/Cardinal Newman/Windsor/Campolindo go D3, SI/Amador/Acalanes/Mitty/Marin Catholic go D2 and Los Gatos/Wilcox/El Cerrito/Monte Vista/Liberty go D1….(I don’t know enrollments, I’m just thinking out loud). The playoffs would be so much more entertaining and meaningful. There’s a way to do it, but smarter minds than I could figure it out. 3 12-team divisions after the open and then 2 16-team “D4 and D5” playoffs to qualify for bowl games. This would allow 68-70 teams to the playoffs and be so much better. We’ve got to get away from the “we were the best of the worst teams” mentality.

Edit: And this should include the Oakland and SF sections. This should have been done 40 years ago.

The AAA and the OAL: Two CIF section relics from another era when those two entities were actually very competitive (the post-WWII decades in particular). No more. They are sad shells, barely functional leagues let alone actual CIF sections. They should have been folded into the Central Coast Section (AAA) and the North Coast Section (OAL) decades ago. The idea that they merit special treatment is beyond moronic. Pathetic politics keep this sad duo as anachronisms wobbling forward.. Ridiculous. And that's being kind.