Regular Season more than 2/3 over...lets get some Open Predictions
- Thread starter NCG-Ranks
- Start date
Based on right now I would say it is looking like this. This has CW in the south and factors in section teams not playing each other, which make it impossible to do a true seeding.
Mitty
Odowd
MM
Carondelet
Pinewood
Sacred Heart
SMS
Vanden or Cardinal Newman
Mitty
Odowd
MM
Carondelet
Pinewood
Sacred Heart
SMS
Vanden or Cardinal Newman
I think there's only 3 teams that are a lock in the open!!
1) Mitty
2) Carondelet
3) BOD
4-8 is up for grabs because its going to come down tonhow wins their section. The way SMS look last night their going to have troubles winning SJS D1 section. This team is nothing like the team from past years where teams beat themselves before that game is even played.
Paytc
Like you said some of the teams that will be in open will be bad match for the 2 top teams. Some teams will be more athletic and pressure the point guards. But length thats what the have. You have both these teams man to man to win.
1) Mitty
2) Carondelet
3) BOD
4-8 is up for grabs because its going to come down tonhow wins their section. The way SMS look last night their going to have troubles winning SJS D1 section. This team is nothing like the team from past years where teams beat themselves before that game is even played.
Paytc
Like you said some of the teams that will be in open will be bad match for the 2 top teams. Some teams will be more athletic and pressure the point guards. But length thats what the have. You have both these teams man to man to win.
assuming CW stays in the south....
Mitty
Clet
MM
NCS D3 WINNER (BOD? Salesian?)
Pinewood
D1 winner in SJS (SMS?, McClatchy?, BC?)
that leaves 2 spots....for....
CN, SHC, RUNNER UP in D1 SJS, RUNNER UP IN NCS D3, Modesto Christian, West Campus, Sac.
***of course MC, West C and Sac would all have to win their section to be considered.
I think they still find away to take 2 from the SJS....I think if SMS doesn't win the D1 and finishes runner up they will go as 2nd choice.
***** the WILDCARD in all this is CAMPO.....with the win over Salesian I think they can make a case for the #1 seed in NCS D3....if they get the #1 seed that leaves Salesian and BOD to play in the semis and knocks the loser out of OPEN contention. If Campo was to win that section that throws everything into even more chaos.
Mitty
Clet
MM
NCS D3 WINNER (BOD? Salesian?)
Pinewood
D1 winner in SJS (SMS?, McClatchy?, BC?)
that leaves 2 spots....for....
CN, SHC, RUNNER UP in D1 SJS, RUNNER UP IN NCS D3, Modesto Christian, West Campus, Sac.
***of course MC, West C and Sac would all have to win their section to be considered.
I think they still find away to take 2 from the SJS....I think if SMS doesn't win the D1 and finishes runner up they will go as 2nd choice.
***** the WILDCARD in all this is CAMPO.....with the win over Salesian I think they can make a case for the #1 seed in NCS D3....if they get the #1 seed that leaves Salesian and BOD to play in the semis and knocks the loser out of OPEN contention. If Campo was to win that section that throws everything into even more chaos.
Random thought. Top four from Nor Cal, Top four from So Cal, Play Thursday, Friday & Saturday with all teams getting three game. Now that would be a very nice event.
So let's say NCS takes three, and two are Carondelet and O'Dowd, D1 and D3 champs.
Who's the third? Let's start with the MaxPreps' computer for the three favorites by received wisdom
Miramonte: 16-2, 30.8 rating, 17.2 strength of schedule
Cardinal Newman: 17-3, 30.6, 18.5
Salesian: 15-5, 25.2, 17.0
(Note that Heritage (25.6, 14.8) and Logan (25.4, 14.2) both have stronger overall ratings by a small margin over Salesian. Campolindo is at 22.6, 14.5.)
Notable wins, notable losses:
Miramonte: 77-59 over Campolindo, 52-47 over Brea-Olinda (26.2, 17.2), 48-46 over Cactus Shadows AZ (23.2, 11.4).
64-62 loss to Southridge OR (29.0, 16.4), 49-45 loss to Highlands Ranch CO (29.4, 17.1).
Cardinal Newman: 85-54 over Campolindo, 48-46 over Eastside College Prep (27.0, 20.2), 67-55, 68-58 over SHC (28.6, 26.8), 54-36 over Chaminade (24.2, 21.4), 53-46 over SMS (33.7, 26.8).
74-55 loss to SMS, 48-40 loss to Salesian, 58-48 loss to BOD (32.5, 22.1).
Salesian: 48-39 win over Sacramento (20.1, 14.4), 48-40 win over Cardinal Newman 57-45, 39-38 win over BOD, 49-46 over La Jolla Country Day (23.1, 22.2).
57-45 loss to Iolani HI (16.7, 14.2), 48-47 loss to Maryknoll HI (25.9, 10.6), 67-59 loss to Campolindo, 63-41 loss to SMS, 47-31 loss to Mission Hills (31.8, 18.0).
One thing to think about: What matters more in terms of strength of schedule, playing a steady diet of decent teams, or playing a few really good teams and a few really bad ones?
Who's the third? Let's start with the MaxPreps' computer for the three favorites by received wisdom
Miramonte: 16-2, 30.8 rating, 17.2 strength of schedule
Cardinal Newman: 17-3, 30.6, 18.5
Salesian: 15-5, 25.2, 17.0
(Note that Heritage (25.6, 14.8) and Logan (25.4, 14.2) both have stronger overall ratings by a small margin over Salesian. Campolindo is at 22.6, 14.5.)
Notable wins, notable losses:
Miramonte: 77-59 over Campolindo, 52-47 over Brea-Olinda (26.2, 17.2), 48-46 over Cactus Shadows AZ (23.2, 11.4).
64-62 loss to Southridge OR (29.0, 16.4), 49-45 loss to Highlands Ranch CO (29.4, 17.1).
Cardinal Newman: 85-54 over Campolindo, 48-46 over Eastside College Prep (27.0, 20.2), 67-55, 68-58 over SHC (28.6, 26.8), 54-36 over Chaminade (24.2, 21.4), 53-46 over SMS (33.7, 26.8).
74-55 loss to SMS, 48-40 loss to Salesian, 58-48 loss to BOD (32.5, 22.1).
Salesian: 48-39 win over Sacramento (20.1, 14.4), 48-40 win over Cardinal Newman 57-45, 39-38 win over BOD, 49-46 over La Jolla Country Day (23.1, 22.2).
57-45 loss to Iolani HI (16.7, 14.2), 48-47 loss to Maryknoll HI (25.9, 10.6), 67-59 loss to Campolindo, 63-41 loss to SMS, 47-31 loss to Mission Hills (31.8, 18.0).
One thing to think about: What matters more in terms of strength of schedule, playing a steady diet of decent teams, or playing a few really good teams and a few really bad ones?
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MM would beat those other two teams 3 out of 4 times in head to head matchups so not sure the criteria used but MM should be in based on the real comparative strength of teams
This is my predictions after section playoffs?
1) Mitty wins CCS OPEN
2) CARONDELET WINS D1 NCS
3) PINEWOOD RUNNER UP CCS OPEN
4) BOD WINS D3 NCS
5) MM WINS D2 NCS PLUS RUNNER UP LAST YEAR OPEN
6) SALESIAN RUNNER UP D3 NCS
7) WINNER OF SJS D1
8) RUNNER-UP SJS D2
CN DOESN'T GO BECAUSE OF THE LOST TO SALESIAN IN THE WCJ.
WEST CAMPUS DOESN'T GO BECAUSE NO HISTORY BUT WILL PLAY CN NORCAL CHAMPIONSHIP.
SJS D1 HAS ONLY HAS A FEW TEAMS SMS, BROOKSIDE IF THEY ARE SEVEN DEEP, McClatchy and Oak Ridge that not strong because no guards this year.
SHC DOESN'T GO BECAUSE OF THE LOST TO CN AT THE WGJ.
SAC HIGH MIHHT DEPENDS HOW FAR McCLATCHY GOES IN D1 SJS PLAYOFFS. IF McClatchy WINS D1 SJS.
THE ONLY WAY BROOKSIDE GOES IF THEY SJS D1.
SMS GOES IF THEY WIN OR RUNNER-UP IN SJS D1.
THAT'S MY TAUGHTS ON THIS CRAZINESS!!!!!!
1) Mitty wins CCS OPEN
2) CARONDELET WINS D1 NCS
3) PINEWOOD RUNNER UP CCS OPEN
4) BOD WINS D3 NCS
5) MM WINS D2 NCS PLUS RUNNER UP LAST YEAR OPEN
6) SALESIAN RUNNER UP D3 NCS
7) WINNER OF SJS D1
8) RUNNER-UP SJS D2
CN DOESN'T GO BECAUSE OF THE LOST TO SALESIAN IN THE WCJ.
WEST CAMPUS DOESN'T GO BECAUSE NO HISTORY BUT WILL PLAY CN NORCAL CHAMPIONSHIP.
SJS D1 HAS ONLY HAS A FEW TEAMS SMS, BROOKSIDE IF THEY ARE SEVEN DEEP, McClatchy and Oak Ridge that not strong because no guards this year.
SHC DOESN'T GO BECAUSE OF THE LOST TO CN AT THE WGJ.
SAC HIGH MIHHT DEPENDS HOW FAR McCLATCHY GOES IN D1 SJS PLAYOFFS. IF McClatchy WINS D1 SJS.
THE ONLY WAY BROOKSIDE GOES IF THEY SJS D1.
SMS GOES IF THEY WIN OR RUNNER-UP IN SJS D1.
THAT'S MY TAUGHTS ON THIS CRAZINESS!!!!!!
If four NCS teams go, one must be the eighth seed, unless the new committee matches section teams in the first round, which seems unlikely. So, off of Respect's list
1) Mitty
8) Salesian
4) BOD
5) SJS D1
2) Carondelet
7) SJS D2
3) Pinewood
6) Miramonte
But would the committee, in its first year, take four NCS teams? Politically speaking -- and no one knows how this committee will work -- it could ruffle fewer feathers to take three from NCS, three from CCS and two from SJS.
1) Mitty
8) Salesian
4) BOD
5) SJS D1
2) Carondelet
7) SJS D2
3) Pinewood
6) Miramonte
But would the committee, in its first year, take four NCS teams? Politically speaking -- and no one knows how this committee will work -- it could ruffle fewer feathers to take three from NCS, three from CCS and two from SJS.
The positive about the MP computer is that there's no subjectivity in it ... it's totally results-based.
The negative is that any algorithm falls short of actually measuring reality. There are shortcuts and assumptions that cloud any program.
As for the committee, what's new is this: Prior to this year, seeding and bracketing was done by the section commissioners. The NorCal commissioners would do theirs, and SoCal theirs -- they would also do the boys, and there was no guarantee that a particular commissioner would have any real knowledge about girls' basketball. Even worse, the San Francisco and Oakland commissioners each had a vote as well, despite having so few schools.
This year, there is a statewide, anonymous committee that will decide all the girls' basketball bracketing, north and south (but not the boys'). Sections will submit their division qualifiers, and the committee will choose eight for the Open, and then replace the Open participants in each division. Next year, the sections will simply submit their regional qualifiers, and the committee will assign divisions, regardless of enrollment.
Whether, for example, the committee will take into account past performance, or whether it will value strength of schedule over total wins, is unknown. The NCS committee, on the whole, has done a good job, so there's hope -- but who knows, for example, if the Southern California representatives will have any knowledge, or interest, in the NorCal seedings, or whether they will feel their opinions matter as much as the NorCal members.
The negative is that any algorithm falls short of actually measuring reality. There are shortcuts and assumptions that cloud any program.
As for the committee, what's new is this: Prior to this year, seeding and bracketing was done by the section commissioners. The NorCal commissioners would do theirs, and SoCal theirs -- they would also do the boys, and there was no guarantee that a particular commissioner would have any real knowledge about girls' basketball. Even worse, the San Francisco and Oakland commissioners each had a vote as well, despite having so few schools.
This year, there is a statewide, anonymous committee that will decide all the girls' basketball bracketing, north and south (but not the boys'). Sections will submit their division qualifiers, and the committee will choose eight for the Open, and then replace the Open participants in each division. Next year, the sections will simply submit their regional qualifiers, and the committee will assign divisions, regardless of enrollment.
Whether, for example, the committee will take into account past performance, or whether it will value strength of schedule over total wins, is unknown. The NCS committee, on the whole, has done a good job, so there's hope -- but who knows, for example, if the Southern California representatives will have any knowledge, or interest, in the NorCal seedings, or whether they will feel their opinions matter as much as the NorCal members.
IIThe committee probably been watch different scores of game or they might have been at some of games. They did a great job with football this year. Hopefully they do the same for basketball never know. The problem with passed few years the Norcal and Socal have been bias for a long time.
Football had some teams for the first time win state championship because they was in the right division. There was some schools mad because usually go to a weaker divisions so the csn win. The committee put them up to the right division a that team got blowout.
What everybody is worried about is seeding??? If you was supposed to win then you will regardless what seed they give that team!!!!!
Football had some teams for the first time win state championship because they was in the right division. There was some schools mad because usually go to a weaker divisions so the csn win. The committee put them up to the right division a that team got blowout.
What everybody is worried about is seeding??? If you was supposed to win then you will regardless what seed they give that team!!!!!
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Open Locks:
1. Mitty
2. Carondelet
3. BOD
4. CN
5. Miramonte
6. Pinewood
7. Sacred Heart
On the bubble (in no particular order):
McClatchy, SMS, Salesian, West Campus, Folsom, Sac High, Elk Grove, Modesto Christian, Vanden
At this point, I don't believe SMS nor Salesian would be good choices for the Open. I don't believe either will win their respective section division titles, either. With that said, I like Salesian's chances better than SMS. SMS has lost A LOT, and I no longer believe they are top 10 in NorCal (reflected that in my last weeks rankings).
To be honest, I don't feel that any of the SJS teams are Open worthy at this point, as each of the top SJS teams have holes the top NorCal teams do not. I would say McClatchy, but no one seems to know the status of Jordan Cruz. I'd say them if she were to come back, if not, no way.
If the true intent is to get the best of the best teams in the state to face off, then you should only take Mitty, BOD and C-Let from NorCal, CW, LBP, Mission Hills, Alemany and Sierra Canyon from the South and let them mix it up for the title.
All other "top" teams in both Northern and Southern CA are a tier or so below those teams. It would be interpreted as punishment for the say the SJS D1 or D2 winner be lambs to the slaughter for say, Mitty or BOD, just to make 8 teams in each region. The committees should be aware of that. If I'm picking, I'd want the best possible teams in the Open, no less than that.
1. Mitty
2. Carondelet
3. BOD
4. CN
5. Miramonte
6. Pinewood
7. Sacred Heart
On the bubble (in no particular order):
McClatchy, SMS, Salesian, West Campus, Folsom, Sac High, Elk Grove, Modesto Christian, Vanden
At this point, I don't believe SMS nor Salesian would be good choices for the Open. I don't believe either will win their respective section division titles, either. With that said, I like Salesian's chances better than SMS. SMS has lost A LOT, and I no longer believe they are top 10 in NorCal (reflected that in my last weeks rankings).
To be honest, I don't feel that any of the SJS teams are Open worthy at this point, as each of the top SJS teams have holes the top NorCal teams do not. I would say McClatchy, but no one seems to know the status of Jordan Cruz. I'd say them if she were to come back, if not, no way.
If the true intent is to get the best of the best teams in the state to face off, then you should only take Mitty, BOD and C-Let from NorCal, CW, LBP, Mission Hills, Alemany and Sierra Canyon from the South and let them mix it up for the title.
All other "top" teams in both Northern and Southern CA are a tier or so below those teams. It would be interpreted as punishment for the say the SJS D1 or D2 winner be lambs to the slaughter for say, Mitty or BOD, just to make 8 teams in each region. The committees should be aware of that. If I'm picking, I'd want the best possible teams in the Open, no less than that.
NCG-Ranks,
I can agree with you picking the top 8 would be the best thing to do. But as long as I've been aware the selection folks have served up 2 or 3 sacrificial lambs each season. So why would they decide to change now? I know there are several teams that would much prefer to play for a Division Title instead of an Open one. Just as that has always been the case. We already see that with teams hoping to be over matched in enough games to have enough loses to not qualify for the Open. So perhaps if the selection folks did exactly what your suggesting (take the top 8 from a mixture of both North and South ) and let that top 8 decide. Then we might see less teams hoping to not be sacrificial lambs. And there might be less thoughts of tanking. And we might see true Division State Champions instead of defaulted Champs. Just more food for thought?
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How did CN jump both Miramonte and Pinewood from your previous rankings? Pinewood has a common opponent win over Salesian which will likely place Pinewood ahead of CN.
One of the criteria used is the teams strength of schedule. Salesian has piled up losses but like Brookside last year you can't ignore certain wins. Brookside beat Pinewood and despite their losses, they were ultimately placed in the open based on their SOS and quality win over an open team. Salesian has wins over Odowd and CN (Ranked #3 & #4) - those wins will stick out regardless of the losses against other high caliber teams.
St. Mary's Stockton will likely also get placed in the open based on the same criteria, SOS and quality wins. Injuries are not factored in as those players, as in SMS case could come back in the post season.
The team elections are always interesting but you look at it by section it makes it a little more clear
NCS - 4 Max 3 Min
CCS - 3 Max 2 Min
SJS - 2 max 1 Min
Clovis West - Wild Card
My bet would be NCS 3, CCS 3 SJS 2 or CW goes and one from SJS.
1) Mitty vs 8)SMS
4) Pinewood vs 5) McClatchey
3) CLet vs 6)MM
2) BOD vs 7) Sacred Heart
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NCG Rank
SHC WONT BE IN THE OPEN BECAUSE THE WONT GET PASS PINEWOOD.
CN WONT BE THERE BECAUSE OF THE LOST TO SALESIAN.
Jaymel911
McClatchy WONT BETTER BECAUSE THEY CANT BEAT SAC HIGH.
You throw out ranking until sections playoffs are done. But the one's I mention are common sense and facts.
SHC WONT BE IN THE OPEN BECAUSE THE WONT GET PASS PINEWOOD.
CN WONT BE THERE BECAUSE OF THE LOST TO SALESIAN.
Jaymel911
McClatchy WONT BETTER BECAUSE THEY CANT BEAT SAC HIGH.
You throw out ranking until sections playoffs are done. But the one's I mention are common sense and facts.
Paytc
At the end day when section are done the committee will look at the head to head. Thats the most important thing to choose how should be in the open
At the end day when section are done the committee will look at the head to head. Thats the most important thing to choose how should be in the open
One political question (I know Respect will appreciate it): Would the committee consider taking one SJS team and three from NCS, or none from SJS and four from NCS?
My guess -- and we're all guessing -- is that the committee makes some attempt to balance out section qualifiers in both south and north, though I feel it's a lock that the Southern Section gets four. Presumably the section commissioners (who are not on the committe) would prefer some balance, especially in the North, as if NCS gets four teams in the Open, then its chances of winning state titles in divisions are significantly reduced. Or would SJS feel slighted if none of its teams were in the Open?
My guess -- and we're all guessing -- is that the committee makes some attempt to balance out section qualifiers in both south and north, though I feel it's a lock that the Southern Section gets four. Presumably the section commissioners (who are not on the committe) would prefer some balance, especially in the North, as if NCS gets four teams in the Open, then its chances of winning state titles in divisions are significantly reduced. Or would SJS feel slighted if none of its teams were in the Open?
Clay
Lets be real, there is only 1 real open team and that is Mitty.
Let's talk about MM!!!! What team in the anyones ranking has MM beat this year??? What make them even relevant this year??? The only reason they even talk about in the ranking is because of the past!!!!! If they go to the open they will get knock out first round!!!!! Everyone talks about how Brookside would be without McDonald !!! What about how is MM doing without Ionescu??? Yes you can try to pump up a players on the front page on WCJ magazine. But who have they played in CA thats even matters??????????
Lets be real, there is only 1 real open team and that is Mitty.
Let's talk about MM!!!! What team in the anyones ranking has MM beat this year??? What make them even relevant this year??? The only reason they even talk about in the ranking is because of the past!!!!! If they go to the open they will get knock out first round!!!!! Everyone talks about how Brookside would be without McDonald !!! What about how is MM doing without Ionescu??? Yes you can try to pump up a players on the front page on WCJ magazine. But who have they played in CA thats even matters??????????
Miramonte beat a pretty good Brea Olinda team. A Brea Olinda team who beat two pretty good Norcal teams Heritage and Vanden both by 40. And Miramonte soundly defeated a decent Campolindo rival. And because they are coached so well they are never to be taken for granted.
But that just signifies this is a rather down year in terms of dominance. And yes Miramonte would have a tough time with several teams in the Norcal Open as would a few more teams. And it's fair to say Miramonte might also surprise a team or two. I agree that Mitty when all things are added up has the clear advantage in Norcal. And it is fair to place them as the overall favorites unless Clovis West is pulled up to the North. But I think giving the right circumstances there is a Norcal team or two that could make it interesting as Pinewood did last season. That is why they play the games.
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if MM wins out (hasn't happened yet), they will have a gaudy win/loss record with a suspect schedule. as I've said, best case is a first round home game (depends on unlikely results that they don't control) and, if they win, hope to shoot the lights out on the road (think: Pinewood).
They beat Campo by almost 20(which Brookside also beat by similar margin), and they did beat Brea which spanked Heritage and Vanden. And Heritage beat Brookside. They would on any given day beat BOD, Salesian and Carondelet. They should definitely be considered.
CamAca
They will not beat BOD, Carondelet or Salesian this year. Yes in the past not now or in the near future!!!! They beat Heritage at home with home cooking.
They will not beat BOD, Carondelet or Salesian this year. Yes in the past not now or in the near future!!!! They beat Heritage at home with home cooking.
I think it's fair to say based on the rosters MM should have trouble with the teams you mentioned above. But you also have to take into account some coaches get a lot more out of their rosters and certain players than other coaches would. So you must consider everything before placing one team as a clear favorite over another team. Some coaches, like some players, just have more fire and are less willing to take any team for granted. Or let any team hang around. Some are just kind and perhaps too nice. And since teams adopt the personality of their coach, that too must be taken into consideration. You are not just putting players up against players. It is one system (whether good or bad fit for the players in it) against another system based on the same criteria. And one team's coach (personality,knowledge,fire, ability, leadership and all) is coaching against another team's coach. And as I have always said coaching does matter too. Some coaches do a better job game planning and adjusting during games than others. What coach is willing to raise the bar and put their ego aside and adjust things a bit when necessary? Who has the best leadership and accountability from the top?
Finally, I don't think MM has played Heritage this year. But that would probably match up wise be a pretty good game. But with coaching and everything included, because it all matters, I would think MM would come out on top.
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Maybe not but I sure think they would give each a helluva game. If they don't beat em they are very close and Salesian I think they beat by double digits. And to refer to your earlier comment MM is a much better team this yr without Ionesco than Brookside is without McDonald relatively speaking
CamAca,
I generally agree with you on quite a bit. But I think both Pico( and staff) and Kelly (and staff) are doing a very good job based on rosters. To be competitive with 5 or 6 players total, and not dodge anyone, says quite a bit in my book. Even Kelly and MM work a few more players than 5 or 6. I can think of a lot of players and parents who wouldn't mind either of these coaches working to help them. So there really is no need to compare two quality coaches or even compare the teams IMO. Two totally different circumstances.
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CamAca
If that is so why all 5 player that are playing are being recruited by D1 schools. In fact why are all Brookside players will go D1 can you say that about MM.
If that is so why all 5 player that are playing are being recruited by D1 schools. In fact why are all Brookside players will go D1 can you say that about MM.
In what sports are all 5 being recruited by D1 schools? There is no way the posts are being recruited by D1 basketball schools. The guards are good but I think that may be a stretch as well(at least all 3 of the guards). Getting letters to attend camps does not mean they are being recruited, it means they want you to spend more money.
I agree with you which is why MM has always intrigued me especially this year. I think they do more with less
Don't we all express our opinion on this board about who might be the good teams or the better team? That's what I like. Hearing people's thoughts on the subject
And paytc.. you rank teams all the time... isnt that comparing teams... or is there no need for that either?
True that is why I wanted you to not leave either one of these good coaching jobs both are doing off.I think both Miramonte and Brookside are doing more with less not just one of them. I mean 5 players is a lot less than the 10 or 12 MM has. I know several folks like to go at it with Jazz and RespectBBGame. But I think some times I notice Pico and his children/players get unnecessarily thrown under the bus. When folks only mean to respond with their disagreement with RespectBBGame, Jazz, or whoever.
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