2025 Open and D1 predictions
- Thread starter AtomicDawg1911
- Start date
Open
CW - CS1
Mitty - CCS1
SRV - NCS1
McClatchy - SJS1
Clovis - CS2
Pinewood - CCS2
Acalanes - NCS2
Folsom - SJS2
They may not take 8, but if they put the CS teams down here, it would be hard to leave out Acalanes or Folsom. They both belong in the Open. This would be a helluva bracket!
CW - CS1
Mitty - CCS1
SRV - NCS1
McClatchy - SJS1
Clovis - CS2
Pinewood - CCS2
Acalanes - NCS2
Folsom - SJS2
They may not take 8, but if they put the CS teams down here, it would be hard to leave out Acalanes or Folsom. They both belong in the Open. This would be a helluva bracket!
Last edited:
definitely a helluva bracket but if we look at body of work who would be left off if they did not take 8?
Here's a thought:
Clovis West goes South because
1) They would have to beat a team ranked above them by MP to get to the finals in either bracket (Mitty or Ontario Christian/Mater Dei).
2) The North then becomes simple, and no tough questions have to be answered about McClatchy/Folsom and Acalanes/SRV. It's just the top two teams from the three big sections.
3) And geographically, Clovis is a lot closer to the SoCal opponents than the NorCal opponents.
The South is
Ontario Christian
Etiwanda
Mater Dei
Clovis West
Sierra Canyon
(Sacrifical lamb)
The North is
Mitty
Pinewood
McClatchy
Folsom
SRV
Acalanes
In this alignment, only one sacrificial lamb among the 12 teams, and no controversy about who gets the reward of D1 in the North. If CW comes North, two sacrificial lambs in the South, and Folsom, say, gets a gift.
Clovis West goes South because
1) They would have to beat a team ranked above them by MP to get to the finals in either bracket (Mitty or Ontario Christian/Mater Dei).
2) The North then becomes simple, and no tough questions have to be answered about McClatchy/Folsom and Acalanes/SRV. It's just the top two teams from the three big sections.
3) And geographically, Clovis is a lot closer to the SoCal opponents than the NorCal opponents.
The South is
Ontario Christian
Etiwanda
Mater Dei
Clovis West
Sierra Canyon
(Sacrifical lamb)
The North is
Mitty
Pinewood
McClatchy
Folsom
SRV
Acalanes
In this alignment, only one sacrificial lamb among the 12 teams, and no controversy about who gets the reward of D1 in the North. If CW comes North, two sacrificial lambs in the South, and Folsom, say, gets a gift.
Had the same thought. Imagine CW would not be thrilled.
That would leave D1 in NorCal as something like:
Carondelet
Riordan
Priory
Pleasant Valley
O'Dowd
Cardinal Newman
St. Mary's
Piedmont
St. Ignatius
Los Gatos
St. Francis
California
Otech
Oak Ridge
Colfax
Redwood
According to Max Preps this morning, South Tahoe High, at 13-11, has jumped up to 38th in the state (with a rating of 3.09 and a 2.1 SOS). Would be really amusing, though not to Tahoe, if CIF blindly seeded off MP and didn't catch the glitch.
That would leave D1 in NorCal as something like:
Carondelet
Riordan
Priory
Pleasant Valley
O'Dowd
Cardinal Newman
St. Mary's
Piedmont
St. Ignatius
Los Gatos
St. Francis
California
Otech
Oak Ridge
Colfax
Redwood
According to Max Preps this morning, South Tahoe High, at 13-11, has jumped up to 38th in the state (with a rating of 3.09 and a 2.1 SOS). Would be really amusing, though not to Tahoe, if CIF blindly seeded off MP and didn't catch the glitch.
I predict....
BOD avoids the Open..get 4 games/wins in D1 against inferior opponents to bump their MP rankings. Meanwhile CN, Piedmont and salesian get put thru the Open gauntlet/ringer, lose games and get punished in the MP rankings for those loses. BOD moves ahead of all of them in final rankings and gets the sweetheart seeding by the CIF over all 3 teams....because the current seeding process is stupid.
After 2 losses in the OPEN Salesian falls all the way down to FOURTEEN in the NCS MP rankings...by all accounts that should be a Norcal D2 bid/seeding! But Salesian was in the OPEN, how can that be justified???
Piedmont also passes CN in final NCS rankings as CN falls to 6 even though CN beat Piedmont in the OPEN on 2/20.
So many questions...
BOD avoids the Open..get 4 games/wins in D1 against inferior opponents to bump their MP rankings. Meanwhile CN, Piedmont and salesian get put thru the Open gauntlet/ringer, lose games and get punished in the MP rankings for those loses. BOD moves ahead of all of them in final rankings and gets the sweetheart seeding by the CIF over all 3 teams....because the current seeding process is stupid.
After 2 losses in the OPEN Salesian falls all the way down to FOURTEEN in the NCS MP rankings...by all accounts that should be a Norcal D2 bid/seeding! But Salesian was in the OPEN, how can that be justified???
Piedmont also passes CN in final NCS rankings as CN falls to 6 even though CN beat Piedmont in the OPEN on 2/20.
So many questions...
Last edited:
My predictions:
Open:
1. Mitty
2. CW (not sure what MORE CW has to do to earn the top seed but I'm just going by MP for top 2)
3. SRV (win over Riordan)
4. CKM (loss to Riordan)
5. Acalanes (win over CKM):
6. Folsom (win over PW and loss to CKM))
Top 4 section champs..next 2 runner ups
PW hits the seeding lotto and gets the 1 seed in D1 and immediately becomes the prohibitive favorite to go to state in D1.
PW is 7 if Open goes 7
Clovis is 8 if Open goes 8
CLET steps into the D1 #1 seed if 8...
Open:
1. Mitty
2. CW (not sure what MORE CW has to do to earn the top seed but I'm just going by MP for top 2)
3. SRV (win over Riordan)
4. CKM (loss to Riordan)
5. Acalanes (win over CKM):
6. Folsom (win over PW and loss to CKM))
Top 4 section champs..next 2 runner ups
PW hits the seeding lotto and gets the 1 seed in D1 and immediately becomes the prohibitive favorite to go to state in D1.
PW is 7 if Open goes 7
Clovis is 8 if Open goes 8
CLET steps into the D1 #1 seed if 8...
Last edited:
Regarding Oakland Tech, the political poobahs who dictate matters in the OAL will lobby hard for OT to be seeded as low as possible in a bracket as weak as they can find. Anything to secure another state crown and more happy media coverage for a battered city that needs every shred of positive PR it can drum up.
Looking purely at MaxPreps rankings and considering only NorCal/Central section schools, Oakland Tech is at #28, placing them near the top of D2. Take out CW, Clovis, & Central, then Oakland Tech is at #25 --perfect! (8 in Open, 16 in D1).
Last edited:
Sounds like a hater comment. Most with common sense know OT will be seeded in D1 this year. Which they’ve won before in the past in case you forgotten.
I don’t see such diminishing comments towards other programs who organizes below average schedules to be ranked high in MaxPreps and looks good on paper (media) being undefeated or a loss on the schedule then come state playoffs they get demolished because they have not played real competition all season.
I always hated MaxPreps rankings--sometimes there's no sense to it. Although Pinewood lost to Folsom during the season, in MaxPreps, Pinewood is currently ranked ahead of McClatchy, San Ramon Valley, Acalanes, and Folsom. Pinewood only trails Mitty and Clovis West in NorCal/Central section schools. If Pinewood makes the #1 seed in D1 (like last year--but McClatchy beat them in the 1st round as a #16 seed), then that would be two years in a row of furtuitous seedings.
Sadly, there's no good way to do it. Head-to-head is nice, but it's just one game (and who knows who was hurt, sick or in foul trouble). I think seeding based on the whole body of work is much better, especially if the head-to-head was in early December.
Certainly not hating the kids. But the OAL, which should not be a section in the first place, has a history of trying to sandbag its teams in all sports when CIF playoffs loom.
They're in D1. Brackets up. Six in the Open.
Folsom gets the dice roll, and drops to D1.
Mission Hills and Bishop Montgomery the sacrificial lambs in the South.
Folsom gets the dice roll, and drops to D1.
Mission Hills and Bishop Montgomery the sacrificial lambs in the South.
I’m sure there’s a reason it was made It’s own section.
However - I’m not sure of anyone program who elects to lose on purpose especially the Oakland based teams.
And looks like Oakland Tech has a 8 seed and is in D1. So what will you say now ?
However - I’m not sure of anyone program who elects to lose on purpose especially the Oakland based teams.
And looks like Oakland Tech has a 8 seed and is in D1. So what will you say now ?
Pretty impressed with this effort. Folsom was the right choice to move down given the injury to its center. SRV got a lot of seeding love, deservedly, for its thrashing of Acalanes last night.
Also some mercy for the CCS public schools. After winning CCS D1, Los Gatos gets put into D2 (as #12?) where it can do some damage. Mills, the CCS D3 champ, moves down to D4, and HMB gets the #2 seed in D4.
Also some mercy for the CCS public schools. After winning CCS D1, Los Gatos gets put into D2 (as #12?) where it can do some damage. Mills, the CCS D3 champ, moves down to D4, and HMB gets the #2 seed in D4.
Not a lot of love for BOD as the #11 seed in D1. Tough game at Riordan just to get to Carondelet (assuming it wins).
The CIF did a pretty decent job at seeding D1. Folsom (flip flopping with PW is fine) and Clovis at 1 and 2 is correct.
BOD behind all the NCS Open teams except Salesian is the correct seeding. Salesian getting the SIX seed in D2 is a precedent setter for future years and goes to show how ridiculous the NCS was at seeding the girls Open this year. I'm actually OK with the Salesian seeding.
On a similar note, Cal high got the 6th seed in the loaded NCS Open on the boys side, and was rewarded with a #16 seed in D1, and a road trip to top seeded 28-2 Inderkum, behind both D1 & D2 teams that faced easier competition.
