So, with Mission having accomplished some SF history last week, what's the prognosis for the league going forward? Is Mission poised to maintain a reasonably solid level of NorCal hoops excellence over the coming several years? Is some other AAA school heading in that positive direction? Or, perish the thought, is the just-completed season an aberration, a brief shining moment in an otherwise grim portfolio of NorCal basketball futility? Incidentally, we are talking only about hoops. All other AAA team sports, for both boys and girls, are not a factor in NorCal or state competition. Name the sport and the league is an irrelevant afterthought. That's a big reason why the Mission state basketball title has been so startling, so out of our realm of experience.
AAA going forward
- Thread starter colhenrylives
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In basketball the AAA has been respectable against other sections, I believe Lincoln knocked DLS out one year, and some girls squads have won in the first round of Nor-Cals.
With student athletes spread out amongst 14 schools in the AAA in geographically limited San Francisco, outdoor field availability how can the AAA honestly compete annually. Look even the 3 catholic schools struggle annually in the big three sports and they get to attract kids from outside The City. It's just not attainable. That is why what happened with Mission this year was special.
Mission's state win solidified the school's standing as the defacto basketball school in the AAA / San Francisco Section. I think Mission may remain dominant in the AAA for the short term and perhaps even longer term. I think there will be a lot of kids who may want to go to Mission just because of the state win.
If people look back at the history of the AAA, there hasn't been a dominant basketball school for years and years. It just cycles around different schools depending on the talent they have. Balboa has the Jet Offense in the mid to late 1990's. McAteer had the Dante Sawyer era. Even Kenny Walls (who may have been the best recent player out of the AAA) won only one title in 1998. Mission may well be the dominant power for many years to come.
I don't know how Mission is rated academically though. Nothing against the school, but Mission isn't #1 on the list for people when they think of top public high schools in SF. Imagine if LOWELL had won the state title instead of Mission. Lowell already draws the top students academically (and some athletes). If Lowell had won the state title, Lowell could draw players like some of the private schools.
As for other schools coming up in the AAA? At this point, I don't see anything changing drastically. Lowell, Lincoln and Washington are the largest high schools in SF and have no trouble getting students. But they obviously aren't drawing the basketball talent (or football for that matter) that they had in years past. Lowell, Washington and Lincoln's boys varsity teams were not particularly good this year. The only plus is the three schools have solid programs and should have frosh/soph players stepping into the void.
The smaller schools are going to struggle. My alma mater Wallenberg was competitive in the AAA peaking with an AAA title game appearance in 2007 (loss to Mission) and a NorCal appearance. But since then, Wallenberg's cupboard has been bare. They have decent players but not superstars. There is a lot of talent at the SI, SHC, and Riordan that don't make the cut for the varsity teams that could be playing in the AAA. But the parents chose the private schools for "education". Many of these kids who don't play varsity may just play AAU or Asian league teams instead.
Last thought: I could also see some players wanting to come to play for Mission because of the program's success. But because the AAA is currently a bit weak, Mission ALMOST has a guaranteed AAA title and a NorCal appearance. As we all saw, just because you play for a WCAL team doesn't mean you'll get out of the CCS to get to the NorCals. That would be a crappy reason to come to Mission but some people may think that way.
A recent magazine article had Mission having the fourth highest percentage of their students getting accepted to UC system. Not number but percentage. Amongst both private/public school in City. This isn't your uncles Mission. BTW, their Frosh/soph team went undefeated for past two years.
Many City student/athletes thinking going the private school route may be re-thinking their options...I believe one local AAU team was the primary pipeline for SHC and Mission. Mission's success may tip the scales the Bear's way if it hasn't already.
If true, that is a very surprising (and hopeful) statistic. Admission to the UC system is not easy. With academic competition coming from the likes of Lick-Wilmerding, University, SI, Lowell, etc., a fourth-place showing, if accurate, is outstanding.
Nice - If Mission is holding up academically and has a stud basketball program, the school population may grow. If so, I'm happy for the school. Mission has done well with a limited student popular. Imagine if the school had more students (and thus potentially more athletes).
Although happy for this year's Mission success, the state title was a flash in a pan. A forever memory at that. AAA success to this result is not going to be sustainable. Most kids in the city that have a chance to go to a catholic school on a "scholarship" will take it. Of course their parents would too. Not claiming catholic school are angelic as with events at Stern Grove, but for the most part the environment is "more disciplined" than the public schools. Having said that I can always pray for change.
I agree that the success of Mission is somewhat of an anomaly, mainly due to the ever changing demographics in the city. Another poster mentioned young families in the City- this is not happening, nor do I see it changing.
I still think that Mission did was unbelievable and there should be a movie or ESPN 30 for 30 on it!
I still think that Mission did was unbelievable and there should be a movie or ESPN 30 for 30 on it!
Mission does have one other positive factor that has proven to be very important. Its basketball coach, Arnold Zelaya, is also a full-time member of the Mission staff. As Dean of Students, he is a consistent presence on the campus, knows the territory well and monitors his students daily. He is not a part-time guy or a walk-on. He has a vested career interest in what's happening at the school.
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