Division Changes

[slick58]

Good for Newman and MC. Both teams are a threat to win D4 and represent in a SBG. Just like teams in D3 had to raise their game to compete with both schools the same will happen in D4. Some will be able to and some won't. It's a little early to say who will be seeded where but as always both are tough to beat.

 

[remc]

They are BOTH D4 schools. Why is it a bunch of crap???? CN did lose to D3 Campo last year 56-14 in the D3 sections....do you remember that? Now that there is a D4 state championship game, CN and MC are RIGHT where they should be playing in their proper divisions (they don't have to petition up to get a shot at a state championship anymore)..... EVERY division has their bullies.

and by the way.......I said they both were going D4 a month ago on another thread...and no one believed me.

DONT EVER DOUBT THE GURU ;-)

Yes both are D4 schools, but with far more emphasis on their football programs than an SMB or a JS, or a Moreau.Enrollment numbers don't tell the whole story. The only way a D4 enrollment school consistently wins or contends in D3 is by recruiting. The 3 schools I mentioned above don't seem to be as invested in their football programs. They are solid D4 programs and perform like it. But now they are going to have to raise their level of emphasis on football or be left behind

 

[remc]

I do believe they weakened the D3 bracket, however I think that the teams you listed: O Dowd, EC, and Analy would beat the middle teams for D4 like JS, SM and Piedmont. Besides, RC would run any of those D4 teams for sure other than the top 3. On top of all that I think RC will lose to CN but I do believe that RC would have beat MC this year because of their losses on D

St.Marys already beat ODowd, and will play El Cerrito in league.They beat EC by 22 points last year, so your statement that D3 teams like BO,EC,and Analy would beat D4 teams JS,SM and Piedmont is a huge assumption.At worst all6 are very competitive with each other.

 

[G61]

Is CN considered D4 even WITH the absorption of the Ursuline girls into CN?

 

[MC415]

Is CN considered D4 even WITH the absorption of the Ursuline girls into CN?

Yes combined I think they are in the 600's

 

[G61]

Thanks!

 

[remc]

This really does have a pretty interesting impact on the playoffs this year. I suspect that Division 4 is going to have some qualified teams stay home (for the first time in forever) and Division III could end up with a real chance of not even having a first round.

Reintroducing Marin Catholic and Cardinal Newman into Division IV gets interesting because they won't have played many of the other Division IV contenders, so head-to-head isn't possible. Without them, the playoff seeding is relatively easy because Moreau beat Piedmont and St. Mary's, and Piedmont beat Justin-Siena, so the only "wild card" is Fortuna. But it will be interesting to see how they seed things now with Marin Catholic and Cardinal Newman. They both have losses, but to teams much tougher than anybody Moreau or Fortuna have faced. My far too early projected seedings would be:

1 - Moreau
2 - Marin Catholic
3 - Cardinal Newman
4 - Fortuna
5 - Piedmont
6 - Justin-Siena
7 - St. Mary's

It would be most interesting to see them swap out Fortuna and CN, setting up a potential CN-Marin Catholic championship game, but I kind of doubt that happens.

For Division III, Campo, Rancho Cotate and Analy become the most likely top 3 seeds, and an underachieving Bishop O'Dowd becomes a candidate for the 4 seed (when they wouldn't crack the top 7 in Division IV). I wonder if Pinole Valley will also petition back into Division III rather than have to face Clayton Valley in the playoffs?

Why is Piedmont rated higher than SMB? Both lost to Moreau,SMB by 24 and Piedmont by 46.SMB has been the better program the last 2 years,winning D4 2 years ago and was runner up last year. They just beat D3 ODowd who last in the last seconds to a good Will C Wood team. Just curious

 

[TMJA]

I do believe they weakened the D3 bracket, however I think that the teams you listed: O Dowd, EC, and Analy would beat the middle teams for D4 like JS, SM and Piedmont. Besides, RC would run any of those D4 teams for sure other than the top 3. On top of all that I think RC will lose to CN but I do believe that RC would have beat MC this year because of their losses on D

I have seen RC, CN, & MC play this year. CN & MC are clearly better than RC. Not sure what MC lost on D going into this year, but they either did not lose as much as you think or they reloaded very well. They looked stout. The top teams in D3 & D4 seem to be more equal this year.

 

[remc]

It's possible, but I don't think anybody could be certain. If Moreau, Marin Catholic and CN all run the table, Moreau would be the only one who's undefeated and will have a better win (Piedmont) than either of the other two. The only reason the committee would rank Marin Catholic or CN above Moreau would be reputation, and they always make a big deal about saying that it's only based on this year. So provided all 3 teams don't lose the rest of the way, I don't see how the committee ranks either Marin Catholic or CN above Moreau.

How is Piedmont a better win,based on what?Moreau beat Piedmont by 4646,and beat SMB by 24.Dont know how Piedmont is a better win.SMB was section champ the season before last and section runner up last year.They just beat D3 IDowd who lost in the last 6 seconds to a damn good Will C Wood team.

 

[HSfan82]

Agree...SMB should be 2 behind Moreau and Piedmont 3, until CN and MC enter rankings.

 

[noknight]

Why is Piedmont rated higher than SMB? Both lost to Moreau,SMB by 24 and Piedmont by 46.SMB has been the better program the last 2 years,winning D4 2 years ago and was runner up last year. They just beat D3 ODowd who last in the last seconds to a good Will C Wood team. Just curious

How is Piedmont a better win,based on what?Moreau beat Piedmont by 4646,and beat SMB by 24.Dont know how Piedmont is a better win.SMB was section champ the season before last and section runner up last year.They just beat D3 IDowd who lost in the last 6 seconds to a damn good Will C Wood team.

Sorry - I wasn't trying to disparage St. Mary's in any way. And I don't think I specifically said that Moreau's win over Piedmont was "better" than their win over St. Mary's. Using the Calpreps rankings, either one is better than Marin Catholic's best win, which is St. Ignatius. I admit that I used the Calpreps rankings to place Piedmont above St. Mary's. Those are both subject to change dramatically this weekend with Piedmont hosting Mack while St. Mary's taking on Riordan.

The schedule strength discussion is interesting. If Moreau runs the table, they'll have wins over at least 5 likely playoff-eligible teams (St. Mary's and Piedmont in Div. IV, Kennedy in Div. III, American in Div. II and Irvington in Div. I). Marin Catholic will have wins over Justin-Siena, San Marin, Novato and a couple of teams that might manage to get eligible (Tamalpais?, Drake?). I don't think Marin Catholic's slate of wins is any more impressive than Moreau's. Now Cardinal Newman, if they win out, will have wins over Rancho Cotate, Windsor, Casa Grande and Del Norte (who's looking like a 5-5 team this year). If they win out, I think they have a better case (though I don't know if I call it a shoo-in).

 

[TMJA]

Sorry - I wasn't trying to disparage St. Mary's in any way. And I don't think I specifically said that Moreau's win over Piedmont was "better" than their win over St. Mary's. Using the Calpreps rankings, either one is better than Marin Catholic's best win, which is St. Ignatius. I admit that I used the Calpreps rankings to place Piedmont above St. Mary's. Those are both subject to change dramatically this weekend with Piedmont hosting Mack while St. Mary's taking on Riordan.

The schedule strength discussion is interesting. If Moreau runs the table, they'll have wins over at least 5 likely playoff-eligible teams (St. Mary's and Piedmont in Div. IV, Kennedy in Div. III, American in Div. II and Irvington in Div. I). Marin Catholic will have wins over Justin-Siena, San Marin, Novato and a couple of teams that might manage to get eligible (Tamalpais?, Drake?). I don't think Marin Catholic's slate of wins is any more impressive than Moreau's. Now Cardinal Newman, if they win out, will have wins over Rancho Cotate, Windsor, Casa Grande and Del Norte (who's looking like a 5-5 team this year). If they win out, I think they have a better case (though I don't know if I call it a shoo-in).

The committee will look at strength of schedule numbers on Calpreps or Maxpreps. Calpreps has Moreau with roughly a 9 on SOS, MC roughly 20, CN roughly 30. I think the D4 playoffs will be very excting this year, but I don't think Moreau will leapfrog the big boys, especially with their remaining schedule. Future D4 seedings for Moreau & others will depend on their performance this year or beefing up their non-conference schedule. The 4 through 7 seeds will be interesting. Are you sure that CN & MC are D4? Calpreps shows them as D3 teams. Currently CN is ranked 5th & MC ranked 1st in D3. Maybe they did not petition or did not submit their proper paperwork on time.

 

[MC415]

The committee will look at strength of schedule numbers on Calpreps or Maxpreps. Calpreps has Moreau with roughly a 9 on SOS, MC roughly 20, CN roughly 30. I think the D4 playoffs will be very excting this year, but I don't think Moreau will leapfrog the big boys, especially with their remaining schedule. Future D4 seedings for Moreau & others will depend on their performance this year or beefing up their non-conference schedule. The 4 through 7 seeds will be interesting. Are you sure that CN & MC are D4? Calpreps shows them as D3 teams. Currently CN is ranked 5th & MC ranked 1st in D3. Maybe they did not petition or did not submit their proper paperwork on time.

Both Coach Cronin and Mo have confirmed they are D4

 

[HSfan82]

The committee will look at strength of schedule numbers on Calpreps or Maxpreps. Calpreps has Moreau with roughly a 9 on SOS, MC roughly 20, CN roughly 30. I think the D4 playoffs will be very excting this year, but I don't think Moreau will leapfrog the big boys, especially with their remaining schedule. Future D4 seedings for Moreau & others will depend on their performance this year or beefing up their non-conference schedule. The 4 through 7 seeds will be interesting. Are you sure that CN & MC are D4? Calpreps shows them as D3 teams. Currently CN is ranked 5th & MC ranked 1st in D3. Maybe they did not petition or did not submit their proper paperwork on time.

How does that work? SOS is 9 but rating is 34.9 while MC has 20 SOS and 32.4 rating? Anybody know how these figure work out? Is rating more important than SOS, if so does that keep Moreau at #1? Any mathamatical genius' out there?????

 

[remc]

Sorry - I wasn't trying to disparage St. Mary's in any way. And I don't think I specifically said that Moreau's win over Piedmont was "better" than their win over St. Mary's. Using the Calpreps rankings, either one is better than Marin Catholic's best win, which is St. Ignatius. I admit that I used the Calpreps rankings to place Piedmont above St. Mary's. Those are both subject to change dramatically this weekend with Piedmont hosting Mack while St. Mary's taking on Riordan.

The schedule strength discussion is interesting. If Moreau runs the table, they'll have wins over at least 5 likely playoff-eligible teams (St. Mary's and Piedmont in Div. IV, Kennedy in Div. III, American in Div. II and Irvington in Div. I). Marin Catholic will have wins over Justin-Siena, San Marin, Novato and a couple of teams that might manage to get eligible (Tamalpais?, Drake?). I don't think Marin Catholic's slate of wins is any more impressive than Moreau's. Now Cardinal Newman, if they win out, will have wins over Rancho Cotate, Windsor, Casa Grande and Del Norte (who's looking like a 5-5 team this year). If they win out, I think they have a better case (though I don't know if I call it a shoo-in).

Oh I didn't think you were trying to disparage anyone I was just wondering what criteria you were using to rate teams. I see you were using Calpreps.

 

[noknight]

Both Coach Cronin and Mo have confirmed they are D4

And here's the final proof - the updated NCS divisional alignments showing both are now in Division IV:

http://cifncs.org/sports/football/files/15FBDivisions.pdf

Note that Eureka has also dropped their old petition and are back in Division III, which should guarantee them a playoff spot instead of potentially being on a Division II bubble. Interesting that Miramonte, Pinole Valley and Tennyson chose to stick with Division II.

 

[MC415]

Moreau in a dogfight with American

 

[noknight]

Moreau in a dogfight with American

No doubt. Based on Phil Jensen's tweets from the game last night, American pushed them around.

In the end, it will all work out. Plus, it's entirely possible that an upset happens, or that Moreau ends up reading and believing their hype and drops a game, making this conversation moot.

As I said before, it will all work out. I think at this point, it seems pretty certain that Marin Catholic and Cardinal Newman will be the top 2 seeds, and Fortuna will be the #3. Given the head-to-head results in the rest of Division IV, I think Moreau almost certainly ends up at #4. After Piedmont gave Mack all they wanted last night, I think they get the 5 seed, and I can't help but figure that whoever runs the table between Ft. Bragg and St. Helena ends up getting the 6 seed (sorry remc). I also think there's going to be 17 teams qualify for 16 playoff positions - never thought that would happen. Meanwhile, there is a very real chance only 8 teams qualify for Division III.

 

[HSfan82]

Not sure why Fortuna gets a #3, they play nobody.. sometimes twice... They should not get higher than a #5

 

[TMJA]

Not sure why Fortuna gets a #3, they play nobody.. sometimes twice... They should not get higher than a #5

Moreau should get the #3 with a big win over Piedmont & Piedmonts near upset of McClymonds. Fortuna #4. Piedmont & St. Mary's should battle for the 5 & 6 seed with St. Mary's (best SOS) beating O'Dowd & Piedmont beat Justin Siena head to head. Justin, St. Helena, Fort Brag & company will follow suit from 7 seed on. D4 looks to be shaping up.

 

[bella123]

If St. Helena or Fort Bragg go undefeated I think they get 5 or 6 seed over a 2 loss Piemdont.

 

[noknight]

Not sure why Fortuna gets a #3, they play nobody.. sometimes twice... They should not get higher than a #5

I disagree that Fortuna has played "nobody." They've already handed Orland (Northern Section Division III) their only loss, and Orland looks to be the likely winner of that section title. Plus, they haven't dropped a game to an inferior team like Moreau did.

Remember, the meeting where they decide these seedings will have equal representation from all six NCS conferences - three from the Redwood Empire and three from the East Bay. None of those three Redwood Empire representatives think Moreau's schedule is any tougher than Fortuna. Plus, the longest road trip Moreau will go on is about a 10 mile road trip to Fremont. Fortuna had to go on a 200ish mile road trip to take on Orland, a far tougher task than facing American at Tak. In fact, I would argue that they'd probably get more discussion about moving up to the 1 seed if it weren't for the fact that both Marin Catholic and Cardinal Newman are also Redwood Empire schools.

If St. Helena or Fort Bragg go undefeated I think they get 5 or 6 seed over a 2 loss Piemdont.

Using the same logic I posted above, I wouldn't be shocked if an undefeated St. Helena or Ft. Bragg ended up the 4 seed above Moreau. Why force an undefeated team to go on the road to play a team that won't have won their league?

 

[HSfan82]

I disagree that Fortuna has played "nobody." They've already handed Orland (Northern Section Division III) their only loss, and Orland looks to be the likely winner of that section title. Plus, they haven't dropped a game to an inferior team like Moreau did.

Remember, the meeting where they decide these seedings will have equal representation from all six NCS conferences - three from the Redwood Empire and three from the East Bay. None of those three Redwood Empire representatives think Moreau's schedule is any tougher than Fortuna. Plus, the longest road trip Moreau will go on is about a 10 mile road trip to Fremont. Fortuna had to go on a 200ish mile road trip to take on Orland, a far tougher task than facing American at Tak. In fact, I would argue that they'd probably get more discussion about moving up to the 1 seed if it weren't for the fact that both Marin Catholic and Cardinal Newman are also Redwood Empire schools.



Using the same logic I posted above, I wouldn't be shocked if an undefeated St. Helena or Ft. Bragg ended up the 4 seed above Moreau. Why force an undefeated team to go on the road to play a team that won't have won their league?

 

[HSfan82]

may want to hold off on calling American an "inferior" squad They are a D2 school with only a loss to a very good Dublin team. Moreau slipped and lost close game. American now ranked #14 in CC Times East Bay poll, so quality loss for Moreau, plus they bounced back with nice shutout win over Kennedy. Still not impressed with Fortuna schedule, Orland is not a great win. Beating McKinleyville and Arcata twice is not like beating Piedmont and St Marys.