Early Predictions for Open????
- Thread starter CoachDViks
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Looks pretty reasonable. My early prediction is finally there will be an under dog prevailing as an Open state Champion. Last year Clovis West was a bit of an under dog. Though they had excellent coaching and a very experienced team. So not too surprising to me.
This season we will see the "Win Anyway" philosophy performed at its best. Where the team without the so call best coach and/ or overall experience and talent wins it all. Not sure quite yet who that team will be. But I think this will be the year of the under dogs.
May all the teams and players have a healthy and amazing year !
Paytc
Pretty sure they were a preseason top-10 nationally... so not too surprising to ANYONE...
No actually they were not ranked starting the season on most polls quite as high as they should have been. While Mitty may have been ranked slightly higher than they should have been at the start of the season.
I'm pretty sure not many had Clovis West beating Mitty, or SMS going into the start of last season. So winning state probably surprised more than it did't surprise them.
Im pretty sure AM and CW were 1 &2 in country heading into hawaii tourny last year.
If not those EXACT rankings...pretty close.
I agree with ONBALL8...no surprise that CW won state. CW and AM were CLEARLY the 2 best teams all year in Calif. The only surprise to me was how easily CW beat AM in OPEN championship.
If not those EXACT rankings...pretty close.
I agree with ONBALL8...no surprise that CW won state. CW and AM were CLEARLY the 2 best teams all year in Calif. The only surprise to me was how easily CW beat AM in OPEN championship.
I'm sure we can even go back to threads on this very site where many had CW coming out of the south before the season started. And like the guru so truthfully stated about the rankings going into the hawaii tournament (which was late november/ early december) it was apparent then that these 2 were tops on the short list of teams that had a chance to win open. If you were surprised I think you were alone
now a surprise (from preseason predictions) may be nbguru having CN in the norcal final from the start.. not as surprising as we watched it unfold, but I cant remember anyone else having them go that far that early in the season.
Don't forget about JAYMEL....(early on) he was on the CN in Norcal final also...
My Early OPEN 8....(NOT in seeding order)
1. SMS
2. AM
3. PW
4. CLET
5. NCS D2 winner (BOD, MM)
6. NCS D3 winner (Salesian, CN, Campo)
7 SJS D1 runner up (better at LEAST be 2 out of SJS...if not... weak as F***)
8. This is a tough one.....could be NCS D2 or D3 runner up.....
or possibly a SLEEPER...how about ESP?
TOP 6 should be locks...and honestly TOP 7 should be also...
1. SMS
2. AM
3. PW
4. CLET
5. NCS D2 winner (BOD, MM)
6. NCS D3 winner (Salesian, CN, Campo)
7 SJS D1 runner up (better at LEAST be 2 out of SJS...if not... weak as F***)
8. This is a tough one.....could be NCS D2 or D3 runner up.....
or possibly a SLEEPER...how about ESP?
TOP 6 should be locks...and honestly TOP 7 should be also...
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The thing is...
the SJS commissioner does a good job in setting up his teams to have success at the state level.
The NCS commish by comparison sends MAX teams to the OPEN every year and they cannibalize on each other.
By all rights..SMS, McClatchy and Folsom should ALL be OPEN teams probably, BUT because they are all in SJS D1 they wont be.
The CCS has it right....OPEN section playoff with TOP2 automatically going.The SJS and NCS should be doing that also. Which would result in 6 automatic OPEN teams every year and let the STATE seedings committee figure out the other 2.
Its soooooooooooo frign simple.....
the SJS commissioner does a good job in setting up his teams to have success at the state level.
The NCS commish by comparison sends MAX teams to the OPEN every year and they cannibalize on each other.
By all rights..SMS, McClatchy and Folsom should ALL be OPEN teams probably, BUT because they are all in SJS D1 they wont be.
The CCS has it right....OPEN section playoff with TOP2 automatically going.The SJS and NCS should be doing that also. Which would result in 6 automatic OPEN teams every year and let the STATE seedings committee figure out the other 2.
Its soooooooooooo frign simple.....
wow, how easily they won? what game were you watching? Both teams held each other to an extremely low score. CW trailing by 5 going into the 4th. I'm sure you ask both coaches and they will tell you there was nothing easy at all about that game fro either side. Extremely well played defensive game. difference in the 4th is Mitty went cold in the 4th. Those were two well prepared teams that played hard and i'm sure each of the players would tell you this was no easy game.
If you said 1 and 2 in the state that would be more accurate. I think only USA today's poll had Clovis West in the top10 early in the season as I think they had Clovis West at #7 going into Hawaii. But my point was Clovis West was not considered the team that was gonna win the Open State Championship Mitty was hyped the higher of the two. And that said Clovis West were a small under dog. This year I think a larger under dog will win State. That again was my point. Thanks for the feed back Guru ! Do me a favor and select a under dog 2018 player for my "Best unsigned player "/ Riding under the radar list. Go to the "Best Unsigned Player" post and add a few selections. Thanks !
It would seem that Section winners will wind up in the Open more often than Section runners-up, regardless of relative strength -- but I would think that the SJS D1 champ and runner-up will both go. NCS D1, D2 and D3 winners will all qualify, most likely, plus the top two from CCS. That's seven ...
Maybe SJS D2? Or if Pinewood, say, loses in the CCS semis, maybe three come from CCS. Or maybe one NCS runner-up.
Maybe SJS D2? Or if Pinewood, say, loses in the CCS semis, maybe three come from CCS. Or maybe one NCS runner-up.
Now that summer is gone, fall ball is over and the real season is here.... any updated predictions on how teams will end up this season...???
1) SMS- hands down best team in the nation.
2) Mitty- best point guard in Ca.
3) Carondelet- in the local this year.
4) Pinewood-Doc always coaches his team up.
5) Salesian- has a lot returns with most improve Big.
6) Campolindo- strong team with a lot returns.
7)McClatchy- very physical team besides SMS.
8) ?????
Everyone going to questions McClatchy over Folsom. This what I think McClatchy is the more physical team out of the 2. Folsom with the transfer D1 committee will help but will that be enough!!! They might be t he 8th seed. Don't forget McClatchy has the history to be put in the Open.
IF MM goes to the Open this year the would be the 8th seed going SMS for game one. I think Campolindo beats MM this year that why they will be put in the Open.
I think Salesian will 21-3 going into the playoffs.
Question did CN get put up to D3 this year??
2) Mitty- best point guard in Ca.
3) Carondelet- in the local this year.
4) Pinewood-Doc always coaches his team up.
5) Salesian- has a lot returns with most improve Big.
6) Campolindo- strong team with a lot returns.
7)McClatchy- very physical team besides SMS.
8) ?????
Everyone going to questions McClatchy over Folsom. This what I think McClatchy is the more physical team out of the 2. Folsom with the transfer D1 committee will help but will that be enough!!! They might be t he 8th seed. Don't forget McClatchy has the history to be put in the Open.
IF MM goes to the Open this year the would be the 8th seed going SMS for game one. I think Campolindo beats MM this year that why they will be put in the Open.
I think Salesian will 21-3 going into the playoffs.
Question did CN get put up to D3 this year??
My only question about SMS is depth. The first five range from Power 5 recruits to mid-majors, but it appears the dropoff is pretty steep. And that means it will be hard for the team to press for 32 minutes, as has been the pattern in the past.
Mitty is definitely deeper, and may lack the top-end talent, but is awfully good.
Hard to choose between them ...
Mitty is definitely deeper, and may lack the top-end talent, but is awfully good.
Hard to choose between them ...
Clay
Name a team in the nation that has 5 D1 starters. DeCosta, Johnson, Neenah Young, Moss and Blount all committed or haven't choose D1 school. SMS with Nicole Young and Anissia Cayton come of the bench will be better then any team. SMS this year will put teams away in the first half won't have to worried to much about going more then 2 to 3 deep on the bench.
The Biggest change in SMS this year is the transfer from Sac High Anna Blount. She is the enforcer that they was missing last year.
Name a team in the nation that has 5 D1 starters. DeCosta, Johnson, Neenah Young, Moss and Blount all committed or haven't choose D1 school. SMS with Nicole Young and Anissia Cayton come of the bench will be better then any team. SMS this year will put teams away in the first half won't have to worried to much about going more then 2 to 3 deep on the bench.
The Biggest change in SMS this year is the transfer from Sac High Anna Blount. She is the enforcer that they was missing last year.
Teams with five D1 starters: Riverdale of Tennessee; Riverdale Baptist of Maryland; St. John's of DC; Hamilton Heights of Tennessee; Duncanville of Texas; Paul VI of Virginia ...
A few of those teams can run out seven or eight D1 kids, and all have at least two P5 girls.
And there's a new school in Maryland (?) called New Hope that's also loaded. Long Island Lutheran might have five D1 starters, but I think it's only four. Collins Hill of Georgia is very talented too ...
A few of those teams can run out seven or eight D1 kids, and all have at least two P5 girls.
And there's a new school in Maryland (?) called New Hope that's also loaded. Long Island Lutheran might have five D1 starters, but I think it's only four. Collins Hill of Georgia is very talented too ...
I think Central of Fresno will be VERY good. Long, Athletic, Physical, Depth, and will be battle tested.
I totally agree with Clay, depth is a huge factor. See last year's SMS/AM game. SMS went down in the second, and made runs to keep it under 20, but every time they made a run, they couldnt sustain it because of their depth. Not saying they won't put a lot of teams away early, but on the national stage it will be very different.
The season less than a month away!!! It will be exciting to see how it all plays out as each of these teams will definitely face some challenging games as I see some great match-ups on the schedule already to look forward to!!!
I agree with Respect, that starting 5 for SMS will be awfully tough to beat, hopefully they stay healthy and Coach Gonsalves doesn't overextend them too much and too early. Mitty lost 4 very good seniors, so I am assuming this will really affect their depth this year as well, but know Coach Phillips has some girls coming up from an undefeated JV team that will contribute this year. Carondolet, Campo, MM, BOD, Salesian, and Pinewood will all be SOLID again this year with many important returners from last year. CN will definitely be a darkhorse again this year and would be great for their community to see them surprise everyone again after the destruction from the awful wildfires. The SJS after SMS will be the same as every year, not strong enough to compete with the Open teams, but can make strong runs to State Championship in lower Divisions. Folsom on paper looks the strongest but they have to prove it on the court, and don't count their big rival Oak Ridge out just yet. CKM and West Campus lost some strong senior leadership, but both have enough talent still to compete and could make things interesting. And lastly don't forget Sac High and Antelope, both well coached teams. The loss of Blount to SMS hurts, but Coach Massari will have their young talent playing as hard as anyone.
I agree with Respect, that starting 5 for SMS will be awfully tough to beat, hopefully they stay healthy and Coach Gonsalves doesn't overextend them too much and too early. Mitty lost 4 very good seniors, so I am assuming this will really affect their depth this year as well, but know Coach Phillips has some girls coming up from an undefeated JV team that will contribute this year. Carondolet, Campo, MM, BOD, Salesian, and Pinewood will all be SOLID again this year with many important returners from last year. CN will definitely be a darkhorse again this year and would be great for their community to see them surprise everyone again after the destruction from the awful wildfires. The SJS after SMS will be the same as every year, not strong enough to compete with the Open teams, but can make strong runs to State Championship in lower Divisions. Folsom on paper looks the strongest but they have to prove it on the court, and don't count their big rival Oak Ridge out just yet. CKM and West Campus lost some strong senior leadership, but both have enough talent still to compete and could make things interesting. And lastly don't forget Sac High and Antelope, both well coached teams. The loss of Blount to SMS hurts, but Coach Massari will have their young talent playing as hard as anyone.
I'll do my top 8 just for fun, so can take a look at later in the season to compare.
1 SMS
2 Mitty
3 Carondelet
4 Salesian
5 Pinewood
6 Campo
7 BOD
8 Folsom or CKM
bubble teams CN and MM
1 SMS
2 Mitty
3 Carondelet
4 Salesian
5 Pinewood
6 Campo
7 BOD
8 Folsom or CKM
bubble teams CN and MM
Clay and Onball
The differences this year is Blount toughness they didn't have that with the Freshman last year. Nicole Young was hurt all year. She will be a D1 recruit by the end of this year if not already.
The differences this year is Blount toughness they didn't have that with the Freshman last year. Nicole Young was hurt all year. She will be a D1 recruit by the end of this year if not already.
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