New Open Prediction
- Thread starter dsm405
- Start date
Don’t think anyone is going to challenge Mitty now. They are playing at a very high level. Not sure another team in NorCal can match up
If true, then BOD, SMS, SJND, MCK & Antelope should be among the top seeds for D1. Followed by a couple of WCAL & EBAL teams. That should be a highly competitive division after round 1.
Folsom beat Clet and McClatchy this season. Plus Folsom will get ranked higher than McClatchy in MaxPreps and (I bet) when the next Cal-Hi Sports rankings come out.
I still think for SJS, the Section winners should be the teams that get selected for the Open. For Division 1 right now, we have Folsom, St Marys, McClatchy and Bear Creek as top 4. In D2, Antelope and Sac High are top 2 seeds. IMO, the winner of the Sections should both represent SJS in Open.
If they are using Max Preps, assuming all win their respective sections it would go
#1 Mitty
#8 Antelope
#4 Carondelet
#5 Folsom
(This could flip due to head to head)
#2 Pinewood
#7 McClatchy
#3 Miramonte
#6 Salesian
#1 Mitty
#8 Antelope
#4 Carondelet
#5 Folsom
(This could flip due to head to head)
#2 Pinewood
#7 McClatchy
#3 Miramonte
#6 Salesian
By the end of the regular season McClatchy's MaxPreps ranking will go significantly down (worse) due to weak league game opponents. Happens every year like clockwork.
My new predictions for Open (this week)...
1. CCS: Mitty
2. CCS: Pinewood
3. NCS: D1 winner Carondelet
4. NCS: D2 winner MM
5. SJS: D1 winner (Folsom, St Marys or McClatchy)
6. NCS: D3 winner Salesian (barring upset by CN)
7. SJS: D2 winner (Antelope or Sac)
8. NCS: either D1 runner up (Heritage) or D4 winner (SJND)
some interesting notes here:
1 vs 8- Mitty rolling right now after transfers playing, sorry Heritage or SJND.
2 vs 7- Pinewood/Antelope-could be 2 teams with only 1 loss seasons.
3 vs 6- Carondelet vs Salesian rubber match!
4 vs 5- MM/Folsom rematch with Gallegos this time.
1. CCS: Mitty
2. CCS: Pinewood
3. NCS: D1 winner Carondelet
4. NCS: D2 winner MM
5. SJS: D1 winner (Folsom, St Marys or McClatchy)
6. NCS: D3 winner Salesian (barring upset by CN)
7. SJS: D2 winner (Antelope or Sac)
8. NCS: either D1 runner up (Heritage) or D4 winner (SJND)
some interesting notes here:
1 vs 8- Mitty rolling right now after transfers playing, sorry Heritage or SJND.
2 vs 7- Pinewood/Antelope-could be 2 teams with only 1 loss seasons.
3 vs 6- Carondelet vs Salesian rubber match!
4 vs 5- MM/Folsom rematch with Gallegos this time.
sure this has been discussed/resolved, blame attention or memory probs, but:
both maxpreps and CIF/NCS websites list SJND as having been moved up for 2018-2019 basketball to DIII. would slot them with Salesian and CN in NCS. doesn't sound right to me. anybody?
both maxpreps and CIF/NCS websites list SJND as having been moved up for 2018-2019 basketball to DIII. would slot them with Salesian and CN in NCS. doesn't sound right to me. anybody?
St. Joes is definitely D3
1..Mitty
2.PW
3. MM (NCS D2 winner) Dominating win over SHC tells me they are best team in NCS currently despite H2H loss to Clet. Plus computer has them at #1 in NCS now.
4. Clet (NCS D1 Winner)
5. Salesian (NCS D3 winner)
6. SJS D1 winner (???)
7 NCS Runnerup in D1/2/3 (Heritage)
8. SJS D2 winner
my 8 OPEN as of today
If MM/Clet/Salesian upset one of those go into Runnerup slot...if no upset Heritage is #7
So off of last year, a couple things:
1) Mitty was the No. 1 seed in NorCal, and Pinewood was 3. I'm wondering if the committee will again slot a section champion into the No. 2 spot ahead of a section runner-up.
2) It appears that the seeding is done not by pure rank, but rather by placing the top four seeds in their spots, and then avoiding section matchups in the first round -- and second if possible. So once you have the first four, the second four are done pretty much by geography.
1) Mitty was the No. 1 seed in NorCal, and Pinewood was 3. I'm wondering if the committee will again slot a section champion into the No. 2 spot ahead of a section runner-up.
2) It appears that the seeding is done not by pure rank, but rather by placing the top four seeds in their spots, and then avoiding section matchups in the first round -- and second if possible. So once you have the first four, the second four are done pretty much by geography.
St. Joes D3? How? They will be one of the top 16 teams after the 8 are taken for the OPEN for sure.
Beating a rebuilding up and down SHC team (who might just end up division 2) doesn't make MM the best team in NCS and 3? that's a pretty high seed for them. MM won't get a top 4 seed. no matter what those seeds go to Mitty, PW, Clet and Salesian. The question will be if they lose to BOD again what does the committee do?
CB--my post was about SJND playing in NCS--which uses a modified-enrollment assignment for divisions. I referred to CIF only because that's where the NCS website is found. Obviously, CIF will determine Norcal division assignment after Sectionals, based on #!-however many draftees are in, by perceived strength.
agree that MM is not top-4 now. would need some convenient combination of losses by Pinewood, Clet, Salesian. but hope springs eternal for a home Open game.
and yesterday BOD-Salesian was a tossup. I don't know SJS, and CCS seems a lock for Mitty/Pinewood. but NCS Sections I-III could be thrillas. anybody offering an Open bracket before 2/23 (end of NCS Sectionals) better do it in pencil, with an eraser handy. or on a computer.
agree that MM is not top-4 now. would need some convenient combination of losses by Pinewood, Clet, Salesian. but hope springs eternal for a home Open game.
and yesterday BOD-Salesian was a tossup. I don't know SJS, and CCS seems a lock for Mitty/Pinewood. but NCS Sections I-III could be thrillas. anybody offering an Open bracket before 2/23 (end of NCS Sectionals) better do it in pencil, with an eraser handy. or on a computer.
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I could absolutely see a section winner being put at #2 ahead of the CCS runnerup....and If I was MM or CLET (assuming they win sections) I would make that case.
What does that have to do with St. Joes? I'm asking you what your thought process is in thinking St. Joes is a D3 team. And last week my predictions were based off of SHC placing 2nd in league. In that weeks span they have dropped 3 games 2 in league. That's why my opinion says "might just end up a D2 seed". Now when Milan Tuttle is back healthy who knows maybe they can go on a run but right now with the schedule they have played they are clearly in over their heads and unpredictable.
Now back to St. Joes being a D3 team? How?
CB, CB, CB....I tried to explain...his post was in response to my query as to whether SJND was an NCS DIII team, for NCS playoffs. you needed to read the post before his (mine) to which he was replying. kind of like a CCS/Norcal mixup on one of your posts a while ago. neither of us was talking about Norcal DIII. did you read my post responding to your initial challenge? I know, it happens to me, sometimes blood lust overcomes my ability to read carefully.
sure guru can speak for himself, but he was responding to my question.
you two are talking apples/oranges. or, NCS v Norcal division assignment.
sure guru can speak for himself, but he was responding to my question.
you two are talking apples/oranges. or, NCS v Norcal division assignment.
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I don't know what to say? They are a D3 team.... NCS decision...could have something to do with enrollment but most likely after Salesian and CN got bumped up to D3 the NCS thought it wise to move SJND up also to avoid SJND annihilating everybody in D4 (which they would have)....the 2yrs they were in D4 they won the section once and took 2nd the other year(loss to CN).
I could ask the reverse question on how St Marys (Berkeley) gets moved up to D3...proceeds to go the the D3 Norcal final (before comp equity) and the VERY NEXT SEASON gets moved back to D4....now THAT was a head scratcher!!
The comment was D3 in section. You did claim SHC was #1 in D1. They have to 3-2 in league to qualify for post season. I think they will end up in D2. SHC should focus on winning a game this week as opposed to playoff seeding.
That's all enrollment stuff but doesn't have anything to do with Nor Cal. They will all start in those divisions then be broken up once the OPEN is decided. After that they will go division 1 for sure.
I wasn't referring to SHC being a #1 D1 team in the section but in the Nor Cal playoffs. And had they won their games in league that statement would have been a pretty good guess. You know just like I do that these things can change week to week depending on injuries or a team just in a slump etc.
In the section they are division 3 due to enrollment. Which makes no difference In the CCS section because the top 4 teams in the WCAL go OPEN CCS anyway. One thing to keep in mind is if a team ties for that 4th spot what happens? Right now there's a 4 way tie for 2nd place. They don't have to finish 3-2 to in league to qualify for post season play. They have to go .500 in the preseason OR .500 in league. There is still the second half of league left to play and CCS. If they go OPEN CCS they will go D1 Nor Cal. Normally the last 2 teams in league drop to the next division.
I'm sure the program is focused on getting better and winning games why wouldn't they be? The only people who are focused on playoff seedings are the people like you and I on this message board.
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SHC will be fine. They will likely not go open and win their division section. Hopefully land in D2 and then make some noise. They always play well in March.
Lol I know right. The NCS has done some very interesting things over the years but it is what it is. A couple teams get the bad end of it but I guess you can't please everybody
You don't think they will go open CCS? I think they will end up there. Mitty, Pinewood, St. Francis, SI and SHC from the WCAL and Menlo and Palo Alto to round it out. If they lose the first round in CCS open they could likely still be sent D2 but if they draw anybody other than Mitty or Pinewood first round and win they do open and the loser D2. With Milan Tuttle scheduled to be back in a few weeks it will be interesting to see how they rally for the post season.
Well if they end up in D2, I like their chances. They'd have to be the overwhelming favorites, with the top 24 teams in NorCal up in D1 or the Open. It would be a huge mistake by the committee to place them in D2, but we've already seen the committee make more egregious mistakes than that, so we'll see.
If they are in anything but the open and Milan Tuttle is back and is healthy I like their chances. With her they are a much better team and a lot more poised. I do think 2 teams out of the WCAL will play for state championships this year. Mitty out of the open and another D1 and D2. This year is just so unpredictable a lot of it will come down to match ups and which teams have to go on the road and play in a section where they are not familiar with the officiating.
Here are the qualifying criteria for the CCS playoffs, from the CCS web site (http://cifccs.org/sports/basketball/2018-2019/basketball_bylaws-2018-19.pdf)
Section 4. QUALIFYING CRITERIA FOR ENTERING TOURNAMENT
A. QUALIFYING REQUIREMENTS In order to qualify for a berth into the Tournament,
a team must meet at least one of the following criteria:
1. Submit a completed, accurate Season Summary Sheet ...
2. Be designated as League Champion; OR
3. Be designated as League Automatic Qualifier; OR
4. Have a league record of at least .500; OR
5. Have a non-league record of at least .500.
I don't think SHC will qualify as WCAL champion this year.
I can't believe the league would designate SHC as an automatic qualifier if they are below .500 in league play. (I'm guessing the automatic qualifier is a holdover from bygone days when they had a post season tournament.)
Their non-league record is currently 5 - 7 according to MaxPreps, and there are no more non-league games listed there.
So as I posted earlier, I think SHC has to go 3 -2 in the second half of league play in order to qualify for the CCS playoffs. Obviously if they don't qualify for the CCS playoffs, they won't be in the CCS Open, and they won't be in the NorCal playoffs.
P.S. I expect they will go 4 - 1 in the second half of league, and will qualify for the CCS playoffs.
A league automatic qualifier places in the top 4 in the league. That would qualify them for the open CCS as it has in years past. There hasn't been a year that the top 4 out of the WCAL haven't represented the WCAL in the OPEN CCS. Will that change according to their record? Who knows we will have to see. I'd have to imagine there is an appeal process as there are for all bylaws and their strength of schedule will have to be taken into consideration also. We will find out in the next 2 weeks. 4-1 will be tough with games on the road at SI, Valley Christian and Presentation. Doable but tough. They did it last year so we will see.
B. AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS, including League Champions, are allocated to each League as follows:
BVAL - 6
PAL - 4
PCAL - 8
PSAL - 4
SCCAL - 2
SCVAL - 4
WBAL (boys) - 2
WBAL (girls) - 4
WCAL - 2
So the WCAL gets 2 automatic qualifiers, not 4.
You should read the bylaws - http://cifccs.org/sports/basketball/2018-2019/basketball_bylaws-2018-19.pdf. I could be wrong, but I don't think the CCS considers SHC to be a special case. So if they don't meet the playoff criteria, I don't think they'll be in. It's why many of the WCAL teams play a weak non-league schedule. Best bet is to just win 3 more league games. ;-)
