NorCal teams for Regional D1AA game?

[bulldogmgc]

Currently, Serra is slated to represent NorCal Open game vs the SoCal Open rep (super power MD or SJB). Sure, outcomes of CCS Open and SJS D1 section championships could possibly shake up this selection. And sure, confirmation awaits on this decision before teams will be selected for the NorCal regional D1AA championship game.

Candidates for the NorCal D1AA regional championship game will more than likely come from the following sections:

CCS
NCS
SJS
CS

But, which sections? And which teams are the strongest candidates?

Should Folsom (favorite) win SJS D1 and Serra go undefeated (still) and represent as NorCal Open rep (again) having the win vs Folsom, Folsom will more than likely be one of the teams for the D1AA regional championship game. Who will they play? NCS or CS section champion? Could a Clovis West surpass DLS or Pittsburg or another suprising team out of NCS?

Let’s start with the presumption that Serra is the NorCal Open rep. But, feel free to follow with the “what if” Serra loses and the winner of the SJS D1 or Central or NCS section championship is the NorCal Open rep. Two scenarios:

1. Serra is the NorCal Open rep
2. Serra is NOT the NorCal Open rep

GO!

 

[M.C. fan]

If St. Mary's win's out in SJS and goes through Folsom, then they should be in Open Conversation. Then Winner of NCS plays team not chosen from Rams or Padres. If Folsom stays strong through playoffs, then winner of NCS plays Folsom. If Clovis West wins out they have an easier schedule than Folsom. If Folsom loses in playoffs and St. Mary's loses as well, then SJS winner might play CS or NCS champion.

 

[FBAddict]

The simple answer, assuming, everyone plays as expected is that Serra will be selected for NorCal Open while the SJS D1 champ (presumably Folsom (1 loss) or St. Mary's (undefeated)) will be paired up with CS D1 champ (presumably Clovis West (undefeated))

If SM and CW survive undefeated, then the discussion for Open becomes an interesting three way conversation. SM might have enough merit to top Serra for Open. CW doesn't have a good enough resume to top either SM or Serra in this discussion.

If Folsom is the SJS D1 champ, they will be placed in D1AA for sure.

If Serra loses in CCS D1 playoffs, then an undefeated CW will be a good choice. But an undefeated SM team would likely trump an undefeated CW. Folsom could also enter back into the Open discussion.

As champs, I see this pecking order:
1. Serra (Defeated Folsom and DLS)
2. SM (Defeated DLS and probably at least bested Folsom if not owning a direct win)
3. CW (no premium OOS wins, but clearly good enough to beat a tough TRAL league and CS section)
4. Folsom (one loss to Serra)
5. NCS Open Champ DLS or Pits

Most likely scenario
Open - Serra
D1AA - Clovis West vs Folsom
D1A - DLS (or Pitts) vs SJS D2 champ

 

[FBAddict]

As champs, I see this pecking order:
1. Serra (Defeated Folsom and DLS)
2. SM (Defeated DLS and probably at least bested Folsom if not owning a direct win)
3. CW (no premium OOS wins, but clearly good enough to beat a tough TRAL league and CS section)
4. Folsom (one loss to Serra)
5. NCS Open Champ DLS or Pits

I almost want to switch Folsom and CW in the above pecking order because an one loss Folsom will be better than an undefeated CW, IMO. But I suspect the CIF SB committee probably would favor an undefeated Clovis West over Folsom.

 

[ThunderRam]

If St. Mary’s remains undefeated, wins SJS D1, and defeats Folsom along that path — I don’t see how Serra will have a stronger argument. 4 common opponents is significant.

While certain factors aren’t supposed to be considered, we know the committee considers factors they shouldn’t all the time. Past precedent has been set.

 

[BigMann08]

I think an undefeated St. Mary’s goes to the Open. Which means they more than likely beat Folsom and some quality teams along the way…. Tough road for sure…

If Serra goes undefeated and Folsom wins out

SJS vs CS

 

[larry legend33]

I’ve seen st marys , Serra, and Folsom play this year and I think st marys is 3rd to the top 2 teams. Serra is a really tough matchup for Folsom because they can pound the ball and they have athletes all over the field to match Folsom. I personally don’t see them losing and I think they have the easiest path the rest of the way. St marys and Folsom still have to get thru a tough schedule and a loaded D1 Play-off bracket.

I could see st marys and Folsom in an SJS final and my money is on Folsom right now. Next year or thereafter the Rams will be the talk of norcal considering how young they are. I think they are a year away.

 

[ThunderRam]

I’ve seen st marys , Serra, and Folsom play this year and I think st marys is 3rd to the top 2 teams. Serra is a really tough matchup for Folsom because they can pound the ball and they have athletes all over the field to match Folsom. I personally don’t see them losing and I think they have the easiest path the rest of the way. St marys and Folsom still have to get thru a tough schedule and a loaded D1 Play-off bracket.

I could see st marys and Folsom in an SJS final and my money is on Folsom right now. Next year or thereafter the Rams will be the talk of norcal considering how young they are. I think they are a year away.

How much of St. Mary’s have you seen, really? Highlights don’t count.

 

[M.C. fan]

How much of St. Mary’s have you seen, really? Highlights don’t count.

St. Mary's defeated Central by 40. Central could have beaten Serra but made penalties that lead to easy score and lost 42-30. Serra defeated Folsom on the Blue turf 17-12. As of today, Serra has the edge. St. Mary's/Folsom/Monterrey Trail/Central are tough teams to go through in SJS. If St. Mary's defeats two of those teams, then they should be elevated to Open. Game versus Central and the fact they had tougher opponents in route to SJS championship should be a stronger case than Serra who has not the same competition in CCS as the SJS. If a team from CCS/SJS is upset in the D-1 playoffs (favorites), then we can discuss comparing strength of schedule/history of teams who won Championships of the NCS/CS/SJS/CCS.

 

[larry legend33]

How much of St. Mary’s have you seen, really? Highlights don’t count.

I watched them struggle against a pretty average cardinal newman team (by their standards). Newman has a great program but more at d3-d4 level. Maybe it was an off night? I’ve seen Folsom a lot this year in person. I just think they are getting better week by week.
And I think st marys will have a really tough road. I mean teams like OR and MT are no walk in the park. But if they do run that table I agree they should get the bid. (I just think they are a year away).
Serra just seems to have the most likely path.
And for the record.. I love the st marys program. Always have. Class act.

 

[FBAddict]

My main concern about St. Mary's is how many points they give up. They certainly have a very potent offense. And having a high-scoring offense allows a team to make up defense relative weakness. The equation works until meeting a stronger team.

I don’t see how Serra will have a stronger argument. 4 common opponents is significant.

Four common opponents is a very significant data point.

DLS
Serra - 09/02 Beat De La Salle (Concord, CA) 24-21 [opponent rating: 51.9] [performance: 66.9*]
SM - 10/07 Beat De La Salle (Concord, CA) 45-35 [opponent rating: 51.9] [performance: 66.9*]

Interesting to see both teams perform exactly the same against DLS on month apart.

MCC
Serra - 09/10 Beat Central Catholic (Modesto, CA) 42-30 [opponent rating: 34.1] [performance: 49.1*]
SM - 09/02 Beat Central Catholic (Modesto, CA) 47-7 [opponent rating: 34.1] [performance: 64.1**]

SM performed significantly better than Serra against MCC with only one week separating the games.

SI
Serra - TBD 10/28
SM - 09/09 Beat St. Ignatius (San Francisco, CA) 49-20 [opponent rating: 16.2] [performance: 45.2]

Folsom
Serra - 08/26 Beat Folsom (CA) 17-12 [opponent rating: 62.5] [performance: 77.5*]
SM - possible TBD in playoffs

It is too soon to draw conclusions with common opponents, but if SM beats Folsom, they should have a very good argument for Open.

Overall SOS to this point:
Serra 37.3 Average points F/A 31.4/13
SM 16.9 Average points F/A 48/18

Serra has a strong lead in strength of current schedule

Overall CP rating
Serra 63.4
SM 52.5
Both teams will probably dip a bit in the remaining regular season but SM is projected to increase more through playoffs than Serra because SJS D1 top 8 should be stronger then the CCS D1 top 8.

 

[BigMann08]

The Rams could be a dangerous opponent come playoff time. They definitely have a ton of offensive weapons. Speedy receivers, qb is pretty accurate and is a threat when he runs. They also have a 6’4 receiver. He could be a definite problem in the redzone….

Defense is solid…. Their return team is pretty dangerous as well….

 

[bulldogmgc]

Just a reminder that this thread is for the NorCal D1AA regional championship game reps (not the Open). We have a separate thread for the NorCal Open rep.

In regards to SM’s defense, yes, at times they give up points, especially at the start of a game. But, when they are 100% focused and can make adjustments, they are an entirely different defense that can shutdown most any team. Yes, they gave up scores to DLS, in fact they were down 14-0 right out the gates. But, once they were focused, it was a different defense with the starters only allowing DLS to score 2 more TD’s the rest of the way. Another example was last week vs Tracy where it was night and day first half vs 2nd half, with total shutdown in the 2nd half. And look at the Central Catholic game, holding them to just 7 points (also very early in the game). This team is young, but this defense (I have shared before) is the hardest hitting defense I have ever seen of a SM Rams team. Many opponents walk off the field limping, lots of forced fumbles. Might think their weakness is the run defense, but this is the defense that tightens up. If there is a weakness on D it’s deep coverage where they have been burned. But, they have their share of picks, too. It’s just a matter of staying focused. I have yet to see a weakness on their offense and how it destroyed DLS’s defense and CC’s defense can be kinda scary. However, they are still quite young. Expectations are really not that high, but they are getting better, and if not this year, given the playoff gauntlet that awaits, there will be next year. Does SM have a chance vs Folsom? Maybe. But, I certainly will NOT bet or pick against the Rams. Folsom’s D especially their secondary is their strength. They pack a ton of speed. That will be one heckuva challenge should they face off. If Folsom is unable to stop the Rams offense I’m not worried on the outcome of the game. The Rams defense will do enough to maintain a lead. Think it may come down to special teams. If Rams win section, most likely a contender for the Open game or strong selection for the regional game. If Folsom takes section, they will NOT be in the Open discussion, having lost to Serra (should Serra finish undefeated) and will be top dog for the D1AA regional game. Just my take.

 

[ThunderRam]

My main concern about St. Mary's is how many points they give up. They certainly have a very potent offense. And having a high-scoring offense allows a team to make up defense relative weakness. The equation works until meeting a stronger team.

Four common opponents is a very significant data point.

DLS
Serra - 09/02 Beat De La Salle (Concord, CA) 24-21 [opponent rating: 51.9] [performance: 66.9*]
SM - 10/07 Beat De La Salle (Concord, CA) 45-35 [opponent rating: 51.9] [performance: 66.9*]

Interesting to see both teams perform exactly the same against DLS on month apart.

MCC
Serra - 09/10 Beat Central Catholic (Modesto, CA) 42-30 [opponent rating: 34.1] [performance: 49.1*]
SM - 09/02 Beat Central Catholic (Modesto, CA) 47-7 [opponent rating: 34.1] [performance: 64.1**]

SM performed significantly better than Serra against MCC with only one week separating the games.

SI
Serra - TBD 10/28
SM - 09/09 Beat St. Ignatius (San Francisco, CA) 49-20 [opponent rating: 16.2] [performance: 45.2]

Folsom
Serra - 08/26 Beat Folsom (CA) 17-12 [opponent rating: 62.5] [performance: 77.5*]
SM - possible TBD in playoffs

It is too soon to draw conclusions with common opponents, but if SM beats Folsom, they should have a very good argument for Open.

Overall SOS to this point:
Serra 37.3 Average points F/A 31.4/13
SM 16.9 Average points F/A 48/18

Serra has a strong lead in strength of current schedule

Overall CP rating
Serra 63.4
SM 52.5
Both teams will probably dip a bit in the remaining regular season but SM is projected to increase more through playoffs than Serra because SJS D1 top 8 should be stronger then the CCS D1 top 8.

Completely agree that defense is the concern with St. Mary’s. It just might be the thing that keeps them from going undefeated. Just like when they lost to Rocklin in their 51-48 shootout last postseason.

But a path to bridge the gap between them and Serra will likely lay out in front of them. Are they good enough to take advantage? IDK. But they are the only SJS with a realistic shot to overtake an undefeated Padres team for that OPEN spot.

 

[ThunderRam]

I watched them struggle against a pretty average cardinal newman team (by their standards). Newman has a great program but more at d3-d4 level. Maybe it was an off night? I’ve seen Folsom a lot this year in person. I just think they are getting better week by week.

And as @M.C. fan pointed out above, the team Folsom lost to struggled mightily with Central Catholic. A team St. Mary’s annihilated.

Those types of performances happen.

What’s funny to me is, you’re usually very wow’d by speed. St. Mary’s has more of it than Folsom does.

As far as I can tell. St. Mary’s is faster and more potent offensively and Folsom is much better defensively.

If those two teams end up facing off, it will be a bit of contrasting styles.

Folsom’s defense should be able to limit the potent Rams offense. Can St. Mary’s defense limit the lesser offense enough to outscore them?

Or might the game turnout as the Rocklin-St. Mary’s game last postseason?

 

[bulldogmgc]

Don’t underestimate St. Mary’s defense. When it’s focused, it’s very very good. Their offense does not put up points on the scoreboard against Central Catholic and DLS unless they make stops. It is extremely better than the defense Rocklin faced in the playoffs last year. Never ever have I heard such “loud” hits by this team when it comes to making tackles. The speed and ferocity on defense is just as lethal as the speed and ferocity on offense. Where the defense falters have been from the early lack of focus/awareness where to cover. Once they have that zero’d in, they lock you up and shut you down. They are able to shut down the run and then crash in on the QB. But, go ahead and underestimate them. It’s kinda weird when watching them. It’s like you see their D get pushed back to start as they are trying to get a feel for what’s needed. Then once they have it locked in, it’s lights out. Just watch the 1st vs 2nd half vs Tracy, or the turnaround they had vs DLS. For CC, they gave up a big long TD pass to start things off after starting off 7-0. But, after CC tied it up at 7-7, the game was over and CC’s offense could not move the ball vs the SM defense. It would be great if SM defense could play good defense all 4 quarters. Maybe they will be saving it for playoffs??? Can’t wait! Still we have Tokay on Friday (expect starters to get much rest) and Lincoln-Stockton (rivalry game) the following week.

Note: last year St. Mary’s had to come from behind vs Lincoln to pull off the win (with a couple of INTs in the last 5 min). The defense struggled vs Rocklin, when they really had the game to win it. Again, the SM D this year is different. Trust me.

 

[larry legend33]

And as @M.C. fan pointed out above, the team Folsom lost to struggled mightily with Central Catholic. A team St. Mary’s annihilated.

Those types of performances happen.

What’s funny to me is, you’re usually very wow’d by speed. St. Mary’s has more of it than Folsom does.

As far as I can tell. St. Mary’s is faster and more potent offensively and Folsom is much better defensively.

If those two teams end up facing off, it will be a bit of contrasting styles.

Folsom’s defense should be able to limit the potent Rams offense. Can St. Mary’s defense limit the lesser offense enough to outscore them?

Or might the game turnout as the Rocklin-St. Mary’s game last postseason?

Folsom is a little more tested and defensively they’ve been so tough. And as you know defense wins championships. St Marys controls there own destiny (sort of) which is something folsom can’t say. Going to be fun to see how it all plays out. But like other years I see us massacred in the open and winning majority of the other bowl games.

 

[ThunderRam]

Folsom is a little more tested and defensively they’ve been so tough. And as you know defense wins championships. St Marys controls there own destiny (sort of) which is something folsom can’t say. Going to be fun to see how it all plays out. But like other years I see us massacred in the open and winning majority of the other bowl games.

Eh, I don’t buy the “more tested” and “defense wins championships” stuff.

The team that scores more wins. Could be high scoring, could be low scoring.

Todays football is different. As are most major sports. The rules make them far more offensively driven.

As for the “more tested” thing — it means nothing. Either a team is good or it’s not.

People like to make much more out of the tested thing than is really there.

While it surely can help a team, it guarantees nothing. If Folsom beats St. Mary’s or vice versa, it will be because that team was better — not because they played better teams along the way.

 

[Cal 14]

In my opinion, the CIF voting committee could be heading towards a real dilemma with the D-1AA and D-1A votes. At issue is the NCS.

If Serra and St. Mary's/Folsom wins D-I titles, it's generally straightforward that one will go to the Open and the other will be in D-1AA. Beyond this, it gets interesting.

The NCS Open and D-I winners could have to be split between D-1AA and D-1A. This could prohibit a D-1AA bid by the CS D-I winner. The only way around this would be if the Open loser also loses in D-I... which could kind of blow up the whole NCS system for next year as it will be perceived that the wrong team was chosen for the Open. It will also look not-so-great if a 3-loss DLS team is chosen for D-1AA over an undefeated Clovis West squad.

The restrictions on MoV being considered could get tested if a 1-loss Del Oro is on the board with a 4-loss DLS team for D-1A. That could get interesting.

 

[Streak One]

In my opinion, the CIF voting committee could be heading towards a real dilemma with the D-1AA and D-1A votes. At issue is the NCS.

If Serra and St. Mary's/Folsom wins D-I titles, it's generally straightforward that one will go to the Open and the other will be in D-1AA. Beyond this, it gets interesting.

The NCS Open and D-I winners could have to be split between D-1AA and D-1A. This could prohibit a D-1AA bid by the CS D-I winner. The only way around this would be if the Open loser also loses in D-I... which could kind of blow up the whole NCS system for next year as it will be perceived that the wrong team was chosen for the Open. It will also look not-so-great if a 3-loss DLS team is chosen for D-1AA over an undefeated Clovis West squad.

The restrictions on MoV being considered could get tested if a 1-loss Del Oro is on the board with a 4-loss DLS team for D-1A. That could get interesting.

Well said. For the most part, the picks have been pretty straight forward since the expansion happened. Last year got a little dicey with who goes to Open, but this year could be full of viable placements.

 

[Cal 14]

DLS
Serra - 09/02 Beat De La Salle (Concord, CA) 24-21 [opponent rating: 51.9] [performance: 66.9*]
SM - 10/07 Beat De La Salle (Concord, CA) 45-35 [opponent rating: 51.9] [performance: 66.9*]

Interesting to see both teams perform exactly the same against DLS on month apart.

The rating performance value adjusts throughout the year, based on the teams' adjusted ratings. It's always based on the current rating (provided everything has been updated).

Also, note that the 15-point rule is in effect. According to Calpreps, beating someone by 1 point is the same as 15. 🤷‍♂️

 

[Cal 14]

I’ve seen st marys , Serra, and Folsom play this year and I think st marys is 3rd to the top 2 teams. Serra is a really tough matchup for Folsom because they can pound the ball and they have athletes all over the field to match Folsom. I personally don’t see them losing and I think they have the easiest path the rest of the way. St marys and Folsom still have to get thru a tough schedule and a loaded D1 Play-off bracket.

I could see st marys and Folsom in an SJS final and my money is on Folsom right now. Next year or thereafter the Rams will be the talk of norcal considering how young they are. I think they are a year away.

Loaded D-I playoff bracket? You mean teams like Monterey Trail (who Folsom already beat by 29) and Oak Ridge (who they also beat by 29)? Or do you mean Central Catholic (who St. Mary's beat by 40)?

Aside from facing each other, I would hardly call what Folsom and St. Mary's will face "loaded".

Also, for all of the talk about how the SFL is so much better than the WCAL this year, they SFL haven't been faring any better against the Bulldogs than the WCAL has against Serra.

 

[larry legend33]

Loaded D-I playoff bracket? You mean teams like Monterey Trail (who Folsom already beat by 29) and Oak Ridge (who they also beat by 29)? Or do you mean Central Catholic (who St. Mary's beat by 40)?

Aside from facing each other, I would hardly call what Folsom and St. Mary's will face "loaded".

Also, for all of the talk about how the SFL is so much better than the WCAL this year, they SFL haven't been faring any better against the Bulldogs than the WCAL has against Serra.

I would and your nuts if you think the WCAL is anywhere near as good as the SFL this year. Beating a good team 2x in a year is very hard. Don’t think it will be a walk in the park. Playoff football has a way about it. Christ look at Folsom last year. Got smashed by rocklin and GB in league and turns around and kicks Rocklin tail in section champ a few weeks later.

 

[Cal 14]

I would and your nuts if you think the WCAL is anywhere near as good as the SFL this year. Beating a good team 2x in a year is very hard. Don’t think it will be a walk in the park. Playoff football has a way about it. Christ look at Folsom last year. Got smashed by rocklin and GB in league and turns around and kicks Rocklin tail in section champ a few weeks later.

If I'm not mistaken, either someone from Rocklin got hurt in the playoffs or someone from Folsom was hurt for the Rocklin regular season game. The Bulldogs only lost to Granite Bay by 10 and didn't face them in the playoffs.

The reputation of the SFL this year is a lot like that of the EBAL for many years. Beat a bunch of middle of the pack-type teams, then proclaim dominance. The fact is, aside from Folsom, the league hasn't produced a lot of high-quality wins. Del Oro over CVC and maybe Rocklin over Glacier Peak (from Washington, so who knows)?

WCAL has Sacred Heart Cathedral over Sacred Heart Prep and Mitty over Palma.

I would say that the bad teams in the WCAL are worse than those of the SFL, but the middle teams are probably only marginally not as good.

The rest is the Mandela effect.

 

[WWHS44]

If I'm not mistaken, either someone from Rocklin got hurt in the playoffs or someone from Folsom was hurt for the Rocklin regular season game. The Bulldogs only lost to Granite Bay by 10 and didn't face them in the playoffs.

The reputation of the SFL this year is a lot like that of the EBAL for many years. Beat a bunch of middle of the pack-type teams, then proclaim dominance. The fact is, aside from Folsom, the league hasn't produced a lot of high-quality wins. Del Oro over CVC and maybe Rocklin over Glacier Peak (from Washington, so who knows)?

WCAL has Sacred Heart Cathedral over Sacred Heart Prep and Mitty over Palma.

I would say that the bad teams in the WCAL are worse than those of the SFL, but the middle teams are probably only marginally not as good.

The rest is the Mandela effect.

CAL14, FYI Rocklin lost their D1 bound 6'4 QB in week 6 vs. Del Oro....Folsom lost their starting QB in the loss to Rocklin 40-7....In the section game Folsom regained their QB......Rocklin played with the current QB and lost 20-3...

 

[Cal 14]

CAL14, FYI Rocklin lost their D1 bound 6'4 QB in week 6 vs. Del Oro....Folsom lost their starting QB in the loss to Rocklin 40-7....In the section game Folsom regained their QB......Rocklin played with the current QB and lost 20-3...

Thanks! I knew there was some additional factors involved in those games.

 

[ThunderRam]

I would and your nuts if you think the WCAL is anywhere near as good as the SFL this year. Beating a good team 2x in a year is very hard. Don’t think it will be a walk in the park. Playoff football has a way about it. Christ look at Folsom last year. Got smashed by rocklin and GB in league and turns around and kicks Rocklin tail in section champ a few weeks later.

I agree with Cal14 that SJS D1 likely won’t be “loaded”. I think D2 might end up being the deepest and toughest bracket from top to bottom.

That said, IDC what wins anyone can point to or what might be lacking this season, I firmly believe the SFL is the best league in NorCal. There are seasons that the WCAL, EBAL, BVAL, etc are and have been better but on the average the SFL has been king.

 

[pastyfastquick3]

After Friday night:

1. Serra
2. Folsom
3. St Mary's

///////////////////////////////////

4. Big Gap
5. Everyone else

 

[colhenrylives]

After Friday night:

1. Serra
2. Folsom
3. St Mary's

///////////////////////////////////

4. Big Gap
5. Everyone else

Again. Incorrect. 1. Serra; 2. SMS; 3. Folsom. SMS is unbeaten with at least one signature win. Reality check.

 

[colhenrylives]

Lest we be unfair to Folsom, it's worth pointing out that it has an impressive road W vs. Pittsburg as well as that victory vs. DLS (like Serra and SMS). That's the Pirates' sole defeat thus far. But discounting the SMS unbeaten mark, along with that 45-point outburst vs. DLS, is a leap of biased faith. Sorry. Won't pass muster.

 

[FBAddict]

Again. Incorrect. 1. Serra; 2. SMS; 3. Folsom. SMS is unbeaten with at least one signature win. Reality check.

Yep! My speculation is that Pasty is right but reality as of TODAY, Colhenry is correct.

 

[larry legend33]

My rankings don’t mean diddly squat but I still think Folsom is the 2nd best team in norcal and will be playing for the all important “other than big boy bowl game” when it comes down to it. Should be fun to see how it plays out .

 

[colhenrylives]

Your opinion is as good as anyone's. Same goes for any of us. Opinions are what they are. Opinions. Go for it.

 

[bulldogmgc]

Opinions are fun to entertain like all of these predictions/projections and weekly pick’ems. It’s more fun when they come true. 😂

We’ll find out soon after teams play their games and potentially each other to change opinion into fact. But, even that might NOT be acceptable to some (cough cough) who think their team is still better even though they lost to the other team. Go figure! I find that entertaining, as well. 😂

 

[ThunderRam]

Lest we be unfair to Folsom, it's worth pointing out that it has an impressive road W vs. Pittsburg as well as that victory vs. DLS (like Serra and SMS). That's the Pirates' sole defeat thus far. But discounting the SMS unbeaten mark, along with that 45-point outburst vs. DLS, is a leap of biased faith. Sorry. Won't pass muster.

Many seem to be discounting DLS because of their 3-losses and the fact that is new territory.

But the Spartans are still a top team in NorCal despite not being the unbeatable force they once were. Pretty much the only NorCal teams capable of beating them have beaten them with Pittsburg being perhaps one of the few exceptions. But 99% of the rest couldn’t hope to do it.

So that said, St. Mary’s feat of scoring over 40 points and winning by double digits shouldn’t be discounted so flippantly.

Until I see another NorCal team do the same thing to DLS (or to Serra or Folsom) — that’ll remain the most impressive W I’ve seen this season.

 

[pastyfastquick3]

Again. Incorrect. 1. Serra; 2. SMS; 3. Folsom. SMS is unbeaten with at least one signature win. Reality check.

Per Cal Preps.

Folsom #8 in state

St. Marys's #15 in state.

7 spot difference.

Reality check. Context.

 

[bulldogmgc]

Per Cal Preps.

Folsom #8 in state

St. Marys's #15 in state.

7 spot difference.

Reality check. Context.

Calpreps does NOT EQUAL “reality”! If it did, whoever relies on Calpreps 100% for their pick’ems would have a perfect score each and every week, and would be kicking my arse. Not the case! 😉

Case in point, Calpreps picked Central Catholic by a huge margin to beat St. Mary’s and picked De La Salle by a huge margin, as well. Heck, even you picked De La Salle to beat St. Mary’s not by 1, not by 2, but by 3 TDs, and we all know what “reality” truly was after the game was played. Let’s see … Calpreps has a projection of Folsom 41 St. Mary’s 28. That’s far (less) from the point spread they had Central Catholic beating St Mary’s, and again we know how that ended. Heck so many of us, especially Calpreps picked Manteca to win big vs Central Catholic, and looked what happened. And now Central Catholic is seeded #4. You live in a dreamworld, the Calpreps Dreamworld! You’re AFRAID of “reality”! You’re afraid of Central Catholic because they scared the crap out of Serra before Serra came from behind and barely held on to win their game, you know the same Serra that beat your team.

You’re AFRAID of St. Mary’s, too! Why? Because you saw what they did to Central Catholic (which the team your team lost to struggled beating) and how easily the baby Rams beat De La Salle, you know the team your team struggled with. But, that’s okay. It’s okay to be AFRAID. It’s okay also to live in your Calpreps Dreamworld, too! Just hope you will be okay when your dreams coming crashing down and you wake up to “reality” that does not quite work out the way you dreamed it to work out.

So, go ahead and shout out Calpreps projections, rankings, etc. Like, I have said, it’s all quite entertaining. I will wait until the game is played and be ready to accept the “reality” whether it’s favorable for me or not. Just hoping you’re ready, too. 😉

 

[bulldogmgc]

Food for thought …

Should Folsom LOSE tomorrow vs Rocklin, they would drop to #2 seed and avoid playing Central Catholic, leaving a potential semifinal matchup hosting Monterey Trail, which they may be more comfortable playing since they already beat MT earlier 47-18. They would still play on a neutral field in the section championship say vs St. Mary’s or Central Catholic (should both end up in the other semifinal matchup and they be successful with a rematch vs MT). No disrespect to MT. Heck, St Mary’s would probably prefer playing Central Catholic vs playing MT (having lost to MT at home in a prior year’s section playoff game and already having success against CC early on). But, something tells me both CC and MT are much better than their early season performances and both might surprise Folsom and St. Mary’s should they all be in the semifinals.

But, what if Folsom LOST? Not saying they will lose. Too much pride and honor in wanting to win league and win it undefeated in league. But still, a loss to Rocklin won’t really hurt much or will it? Would Rocklin secure SFL league championship and moved into D1 for playoffs? Would they move up in seedings above Folsom and St. Mary’s as the #1 seed dropping St Mary’s to #2, Folsom to #3, MT to #4 and CC to #5? Or maybe St. Mary’s is #1, Rocklin #2, Folsom #3, MT #4 and CC#5? Still, Folsom avoids playing CC unless both make it to the championship game, should they win out. Talk about seeding chaos.

But, no worries, Folsom is not going to LOSE vs Rocklin on Thursday. Are they?

Hmm. St Mary’s still has to beat Lincoln-Stockton on Friday. But, if they don’t, oh wow, we have even more seeding chaos.

But, no worries, St. Mary’s is not going to LOSE vs Lincoln-Stockton on Friday? Are they?

🧐

 

[bulldogmgc]

In other words NorCal D1AA is still “too much football left” to determine which teams get chosen. Would still think one of the reps is going to come out of SJS D1 if not selected for the open, and the only SJS D1 candidate for the open challenge (vs Serra on paper) can only be an undefeated St. Mary’s. Folsom and any other SJS D1 team with a loss has no shot at the open and will be relegated to NorCal D1AA … unless Serra falters. And if that happens, even more chaos to continue. 😂

Again, there is NO “reality” check until all of the games are played. All of these projections especially by Calpreps is “dreaming”. Happy dreams everyone! 😴 🛌 🐏 🏆

 

[Cal 14]

In other words NorCal D1AA is still “too much football left” to determine which teams get chosen. Would still think one of the reps is going to come out of SJS D1 if not selected for the open, and the only SJS D1 candidate for the open challenge (vs Serra on paper) can only be an undefeated St. Mary’s. Folsom and any other SJS D1 team with a loss has no shot at the open and will be relegated to NorCal D1AA … unless Serra falters. And if that happens, even more chaos to continue. 😂

Again, there is NO “reality” check until all of the games are played. All of these projections especially by Calpreps is “dreaming”. Happy dreams everyone! 😴 🛌 🐏 🏆

I think it would take a monumental upset for the SJS D-I winner to not be in at least D-1AA. This is especially true now that Clovis West got thumped.