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OPEN Rd. 2

OnBall8

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Dec 16, 2012
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Alright, time for the predictions on the next round of games.. Here are the "vegas" lines.. Who ya got???

SMS @ AM -1

CN @ PW -7
 
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I'm with you on both ... I see the SMS-Mitty game coming down to the breaks of the game (the way the calls go, FT shooting, that kind of thing). I think Pinewood could dominate that game, but Cardinal Newman is playing with house money and has some weapons.
 
Wow, these games should be good! Especially the SMS/Mitty game; this game is really a toss up. I think it could come down to the role players for each team as the stars will each make their normal impact on the game. The X factor for SMS lately has been Neenah Young; she has been incredible lately and with Aquira and Naje back, she has stepped up bigtime as the 3rd/4th scoring option. But Mitty has some outstanding role players and their deep bench could be the difference. I am going with the home team and think Guglielmo, Hill and Holland will be able to combat what Young and Ariel Johnson can do in this game. Mitty wins by 4, down the stretch will hit their free throws for the 4 point difference. I think CN run is over, they have proved already that they are Open worthy and just as good as any of these Open teams. But Pinewood will be too much at home. With Claros back, she will be the difference. They play so smart and well together, and she adds another great ball handler and passer to create open shots for the rest of the team. Pinewood will win by 9. Pinewood/Mitty rematch will be fun with Claros back. Their first game was close until 4th quarter and Pinewood just didn't have enough gas to hang in there until the end. With Claros back this time, could go down to end and will be good rematch.
 
Claros is also their third-leading scorer, averaging double digits. a pg who can both assist and score. I'm guessing she's a solid handler/passer against the press, although there aren't any stats for that.
 
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Tuesday nights game at Mitty should bring out many D1 coaches. Last Friday night for the Mitty vs Sacred Heart game Tara (Stanford), Lindsey (Cal), Oregon, Santa Clara, Saint Mary's were all in attendance. Hopefully this game lives up to the hype. Both teams can adjust to any style of play and both are very capable of making big runs. All due respect to the other NorCal divisions playoff games, but this game will just be played at another level and will bring out abilities on both teams that aren't normally scene in other games.
 
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Lots of talk about the players....
I don't hear much discussion about the two coaches????
Crickets ?????
How can the two coaches not be a factor?

Let's Dance....
 
Dont forget about Hawaii and Pacific who were also there.. Some of the better teams may not be able to be there since they may be playing that night. But maybe teams that have a local saturday games? The local schools no longer playing should all be there though. Heard Kelly graves was at the PW/BOD game. Probably others too.
 
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Lots of talk about the players....
I don't hear much discussion about the two coaches????
Crickets ?????
How can the two coaches not be a factor?

Let's Dance....

Obviously they will be a factor. Coach phillips adapts and changes schemes according to opponents, tom either presses or doesn't depending on the effectiveness.. and thats about it. See Pinewood last year.. zero adjustments
 
CN has no chance..... the line is PW -7 is all???? I was thinking more like -12.

as CLAYK says Pinewood's going to dominate...

PW has a Swedish and English national team player on their roster (starting5)...what chance do the slowfoot Sonoma county girls have against that?

Don't even pay attention to this game.....easy win for PW.....if I was DOC I would have been preparing for next Saturdays game this past weekend.

CONGRATS to PINEWOOD for getting to the NORCAL OPEN final for the 2nd straight year.
 
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CN vs PNW will be interesting based on the interior play. The big girl for PNW was allowed to bang away in the Mitty game referees let her be very physical all game long vs the BOD game where it was called much closer and she picked up fouls with the same style of play. If she picks up quick fouls early it will make things dufficult for PNW. It will be closer than you think.
 
Obviously they will be a factor. Coach phillips adapts and changes schemes according to opponents, tom either presses or doesn't depending on the effectiveness.. and thats about it. See Pinewood last year.. zero adjustments
St Mary's will definitely not be able to put on their full court press in this game, because Mitty will get layups or wide open shots. They will just move the press back to 3/4 court or 1/2 court to try and control the tempo and slow Mitty down. Tom doesn't like to adjust as you stated, so the edge definitely goes to Mitty's coach. Plus Sue has the ability to make several different adjustments because of her deep bench, St Mary's doesn't have that same luxury this year. Both of these teams have shooters all over the court, shooting percentage from deep will certainly play a big part in this one. Hopefully this game lives up to the hype.
 
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CN has no chance..... the line is PW -7 is all???? I was thinking more like -12.

as CLAYK says Pinewood's going to dominate...

PW has a Swedish and English national team player on their roster (starting5)...what chance do the slowfoot Sonoma county girls have against that?

Don't even pay attention to this game.....easy win for PW.....if I was DOC I would have been preparing for next Saturdays game this past weekend.

CONGRATS to PINEWOOD for getting to the NORCAL OPEN final for the 2nd straight year.

Well played ...
 
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CN has no chance..... the line is PW -7 is all???? I was thinking more like -12.

as CLAYK says Pinewood's going to dominate...

PW has a Swedish and English national team player on their roster (starting5)...what chance do the slowfoot Sonoma county girls have against that?

Don't even pay attention to this game.....easy win for PW.....if I was DOC I would have been preparing for next Saturdays game this past weekend.

CONGRATS to PINEWOOD for getting to the NORCAL OPEN final for the 2nd straight year.
hey big lou CN has no chance against a real powerhouse congrats on the big time and unsuccesfuly lobbying to stay in d4. looks like u belonged in the open all along since you play those same teams all summer congrats try not to trip and fall out of any more bleachers
 
hey big lou CN has no chance against a real powerhouse congrats on the big time and unsuccesfuly lobbying to stay in d4. looks like u belonged in the open all along since you play those same teams all summer congrats try not to trip and fall out of any more bleachers

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yeKFyHC
 
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Just got thru watching last years game vs SMS- mitty in Arizona . Press really bothered mitty . 18 point lead at the half. This is huge game for Mitty they have underachieved the last few years . Had a bad toc this year. Got upset last year by Salisian . Did not qualify for open 2 years ago. Back to the game last year .., Mitty had no answers. SMS starting 5 might be better than last years or as good. Mitty will have to beat a pretty good team tomorrow.
 
Just got thru watching last years game vs SMS- mitty in Arizona . Press really bothered mitty . 18 point lead at the half. This is huge game for Mitty they have underachieved the last few years . Had a bad toc this year. Got upset last year by Salisian . Did not qualify for open 2 years ago. Back to the game last year .., Mitty had no answers. SMS starting 5 might be better than last years or as good. Mitty will have to beat a pretty good team tomorrow.

Like most games it will come down to how the game is called and if that is in your's or the other team's favor. And if it is not called in your favor if you can still play your game aggressively and stay out of foul trouble. The biggest difference in this years SMS and last years is depth and experience. It should be a really good game because SMS I believe have a healthy Murry and a healthy Decosta. SMS played well in Arizona and most of the season without Murry. So one would think they will be even better with her experience, heart, and leadership. SMS let one get away last season. Will they make up for it by capturing one this season, this time as the under dogs? Tomorrow should answer 75% of the question. I think if SMS gets past Mitty they would be favored against the winner of CN and Pinewood. Of course even then there are no guarantees. And if is a lot bigger word before a game than the two letters it is after the game.

Best of luck to both teams. And best of luck to all the teams still playing in the post season tournaments.
 
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The point is , mitty didn't make any adjustments against the press. Can their coaching staff figure it out this time.
 
I would assume there will be adjustments on both sides. Both teams have had extremely challenging schedules this season. They are now both battle tested. Two game changers will be Neenah Young for and Haley Jones for Mitty.

i agree with you that the game on the perimeter will be big.
 
Last years SMS team had MiCole Cayton, Kat Tudor, Sierra Smith and Angel Johnson.

Sjbasket,

You forgot they had Porter and Fadel too. But SMS is still a very talented and cable group with the return of Murry. They are nowhere near as deep. But that didn't stop them from playing well in Arizona without Murry. I think they are better with Murry. Both teams are talented and capable of winning it all. And that makes for an exciting game. Lack of confidence shouldn't show up in this game on either side.

I do think Mitty is prepared to handle the press. It should be a very entertaining game.
 
Have you ever heard of aquira Decosta ? Lol . USA first team preseason all American . I hope Aquira reads that comment
 
Aquira is the best athlete. Jones can play positions 1 thru 5.

I hope Aquira is spending her time more wisely than reading message boards. Both players have enough motivation.
 
You can analyze this game all you want, we can talk about which coach will make adjustments, we can discuss which players are difference makers. Both of these teams are loaded with talent!!!! This is a toss up. As I mentioned earlier, think it will come down to shots made from the perimeter. Both teams will have opportunities, should be extremely good game. Either one of these teams has ability to win it all! Let's hope both teams play well and it comes down to end of game execution.
 
Go Newman! Would be great for all of the North Bay to see one of their programs keep playing deep into March!
 
Sue Phillips has done an excellent job against the SMS press in the past, in big games. In a NorCal title game that Mitty won, she had four players line up right on the baseline, and kept throwing long passes to Kelli Hayes that broke the press consistently.

Maybe we'll see that adjustment again, or a different one. It's not like the SMS press is so complex it can't be understood -- it's that the athletes are so good, the plan of attack simply can't be executed. (In general, a successful press requires superior athleticism to work at this level.)

As for Pinewood-Newman, home court will help, but three-point shooting teams can have bad nights, and when that happens, they can struggle to score. But if Pinewood hits its normal percentage of threes, I think it will be hard for Newman to win on the road.
 
The point is , mitty didn't make any adjustments against the press. Can their coaching staff figure it out this time.
You're right, I just quickly scrolled through the video from last year too... Oddly, the press got SMS up 54-36 at half.. and yet it was Tom that made the adjustment to trap in the half court the entire second half.. no press at all (with the exception of kids going after the rebounder after a possession change). Well, AM came back and made it a game against their half court trap, enough of a game that SMS went stall ball...

So the two things I took away from this quick look (I didnt look at every play): A) I think mitty will be as or more concerned about their own defense as they are about SMS press. They gave up 54 in the first half and only 32 in the second. While they would stand a fair chance in a race to 90, I doubt thats how they want the game to go tonight.
B) I dont get why Tom went away from the press.. like both of us saw, it was working (proved by the score). So why the adjustment, and furthermore, why not the counter adjustment possibly back to the press once it wasnt working?

Like clay said, Sue outchoached him in 2012... which was a game played in the 50s, and SMS averaged about 80 per game that year. I would love to see more of a defensive battle tonight
 
let's keep in mind that two "evenly matched" squads won't always play a close game, due to variations in performance by athletes (especially high school athletes). of course, for the fans I hope the game is decided on the final possession.
 
You're right, I just quickly scrolled through the video from last year too... Oddly, the press got SMS up 54-36 at half.. and yet it was Tom that made the adjustment to trap in the half court the entire second half.. no press at all (with the exception of kids going after the rebounder after a possession change). Well, AM came back and made it a game against their half court trap, enough of a game that SMS went stall ball...

So the two things I took away from this quick look (I didnt look at every play): A) I think mitty will be as or more concerned about their own defense as they are about SMS press. They gave up 54 in the first half and only 32 in the second. While they would stand a fair chance in a race to 90, I doubt thats how they want the game to go tonight.
B) I dont get why Tom went away from the press.. like both of us saw, it was working (proved by the score). So why the adjustment, and furthermore, why not the counter adjustment possibly back to the press once it wasnt working?

Like clay said, Sue outchoached him in 2012... which was a game played in the 50s, and SMS averaged about 80 per game that year. I would love to see more of a defensive battle tonight
Having seen both teams, AM at the TOC and SMS a couple times locally, the difference is probably depth. SMS won't wear AM down. It could actually be the other way around. AM by 8.
 
Having seen both teams, AM at the TOC and SMS a couple times locally, the difference is probably depth. SMS won't wear AM down. It could actually be the other way around. AM by 8.

I definitely agree with you on this.. if SMS couldnt wear AM down last year, I don't see it happening tonight. Like you said, it could be the other way around. If AM limits the SMS runs and elongates their own runs, especially late in quarters, I would not be surprised if this was a 15+ point game.
 
You're right, I just quickly scrolled through the video from last year too... Oddly, the press got SMS up 54-36 at half.. and yet it was Tom that made the adjustment to trap in the half court the entire second half.. no press at all (with the exception of kids going after the rebounder after a possession change). Well, AM came back and made it a game against their half court trap, enough of a game that SMS went stall ball...---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------.
B) I dont get why Tom went away from the press.. like both of us saw, it was working (proved by the score). So why the adjustment, and furthermore, why not the counter adjustment possibly back to the press once it wasnt working?

Like clay said, Sue outchoached him in 2012... which was a game played in the 50s, and SMS averaged about 80 per game that year. I would love to see more of a defensive battle tonight

In respect to the question of why coach Gonzalvas went away from the press in the second half with a big lead that the press had gotten him, well if you put the situation in context it makes sense. You see it was the TOC where teams have to play the next day for multiple days. With a big lead and a game looming the next day against Riverdale it would make sense to give his players a rest and not tire them out unnecessarily. Thus the stall at the end.. They were thinking about the game the next day.

As to the loss to Mitty in the Nor Cal finals in 2012, the Mitty coach had a great game plan, however the most important factor for SMS scoring lower than usual was Reggie Camara's injury. She was playing with an injured toe that did not allow her to plant and get lift on her shots. Not only was she their best 3pt shooter but also the Sr leader of that team. Other than her that team was bereft of 3pt shooters, so losing her production was killing. I also initially thought that Gonsalves should have made adjustments until i watched the game on video. Sues game plan took advantage of the pressvia passing to open players on the wings who knocked down 3's. , but with Range in foul trouble there really was nothing the SMS coach could do. When Courtney was on the bench Mitty had too much size inside to run any different type of defense. There were also the usual variables that often effect a teams offense, but the most impacting factor was Camera's injury. Sues game plan affected Mitty's success on offense, but SMS's decline on their offense could be attributed to situation rather than anything Mitty did defensively.
 
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I'll throw out my thoughts based on the "lines" (which are pretty spot on).

I'll go with Mitty by 3 points. I think this will be an awesome back and forth game.

Pinewood will beat CN, but by less than seven. Good contrast of size vs. guard play. Close game throughout with Pinewood making some shots late.
 
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