Don’t count out Fresno-Central for the Open. If there is not an undefeated NCS, SJS or CCS school, they could slip in.
While I do think that the Central Section leaders should be watching out for the DLS-Folsom score with interest, I don't think it can be ignored that Central just barely got by Stockton Edison 17-10.
In reference to a lot in this thread:
1. St. Francis is the only team that, according to the bowl rules, should be listed #1 for the bowl games (as I've stated elsewhere, the normal rankings shouldn't have to follow bowl rankings).
2. DLS's loss does not extrapolate to anyone else. Whether a 1-loss DLS leapfrogs the Lancers should they fail to win out depends on to whom they fail and whether that team has any additional losses. DLS is still very much in the running for the Open Division.
3. If Folsom were to beat DLS, their overall season will be compared to St. Francis, should the Lancers go unbeaten the rest of the way. Recent history, however, has shown a preference for SJS teams over those from the CCS by the CIF.
4. No, it would not be the worst thing for NorCal if the Bulldogs are selected for the Open opposite Mater Dei. While I don't see them beating the Monarchs, I also don't see them losing by 60... sorry, but that's just really ill-informed and fueled by nothing but emotion and animus. In reality, this would be one of the most anticipated games in recent memory.
5. Both DLS and Folsom are in tough positions at this point. If SF wins out, the loser of this game may fall all the way to D-IA, potentially moving the CS D-I winner into the D-IAA game against either a Folsom or SF. I say this because I don't think the CIF will want to set up any rematches.
6. A lot of crazy things can happen just within the WCAL, but it does appear that Folsom may only get one real challenge in Rocklin. Granite Bay and Del Oro seem be to be good teams, but their results so far do not indicate they are real threats to the Bulldogs in any way.
My very early scenarios:
A. DLS beats Folsom, SF wins out (or takes only 1 loss) - SF (Open), DLS vs CS D-I (D-IAA), Folsom vs ??? (D-IA)
B. Folsom beats DLS and wins out, SF wins out - Folsom (Open), SF vs CS D-I (D-IAA), DLS vs. ??? (D-IA)
C. DLS beats Folsom, Serra/Bellarmine wins out - Serra/Bellarmine (Open), DLS vs CS D-I (D-IAA), Folsom vs ??? (D-IA)
D. Folsom beats DLS and wins out, Serra/Bellarmine wins out - Folsom (Open), Serra/Bellarmine vs CS D-I (D-IAA), DLS vs ??? (D-IA)
E. DLS beats Folsom, Serra/Bellarmine win CCS, but with 1 loss - DLS (Open), Serra/Bellarmine vs Folsom (D-IAA), CS D-I vs ??? (D-IA)
F. Folsom beats DLS and takes 1 loss, SF/Serra/Bellarmine win CCS with no more than 1 loss - Folsom (Open), CCS winner vs CS D-I (D-IAA), DLS vs ??? (D-IA)
G. DLS beats Folsom, CCS winner has two losses - DLS (Open), Folsom vs CS D-I (D-IAA), CCS winner vs ??? (D-IA)
H. Folsom beats DLS and has no more than 1 loss, CCS winner has two losses - Folsom (Open), DLS vs CS D-I (D-IAA), CCS winner vs ??? (D-IA)
Pittsburg is a strong favorite to win NCS D-I (with DLS winning DLS D-Open) and could potentially fill in some of the ??? positions, provided it's not against Folsom or DLS.
McClymonds is also waiting in the wings if they are able to beat Pittsburg on 10/1. They could also be the ??? team.
Winner of SJS D-II could also be a factor for the ??? position. Central Catholic has huge game against Bellarmine this week, Rocklin's or Jesuit's only loss could be against Folsom.