NCS Boys Basketball Playoff Projections
NATE SMITH
Prep2Prep Senior Contributor February 4, 2018
Our first installment of the North Coast Section boys’ basketball playoff projections breaks down which teams should be in the field and which teams are still fighting to get in. Following section seeding criteria, especially head-to-head and common opponent results, we have ranked the teams accordingly, and discussed the criteria used and how these seeds may change in the near future.
One disclaimer – there may be the possibility of other teams becoming eligible based on record against teams in their own division, but this would likely only affect one or two other teams. In the cases where there are 16 teams listed, there may be others on the bubble who may not currently be included based on what lies ahead on the schedule.
DIVISION IV
The records are almost irrelevant here, since the level of competition varies so widely from one team and one league to the next among Division IV contenders. St. Patrick-St. Vincent and St. Joseph Notre Dame have otherwise average overall records, but few other teams in this field have played competition even remotely close to what these teams have faced, with the possible exception of Lick-Wilmerding, Stuart Hall, and Piedmont.
Stuart Hall, in fact, could have the seeding edge over St. Joe’s, based on the Knights’ win over Sacramento, who beat the Pilots. The Hall also beat Mission and has a pair of wins over Lick.
Other teams from those leagues are also down the list in terms of record, but have quality wins and close losses across the board – teams like Saint Mary’s, who could easily be in contention for a semifinal appearance and NorCal bid. Meanwhile, teams such as Roseland are unbeaten in league, but that should matter very little to the committee.
Healdsburg and Kelseyville are both on track to be league champions, but have little in the way of non-league victories to climb the ladder. Kelseyville, in fact, has losses to both Piedmont and McKinleyville.
PROJECTED SEEDS
1. St. Patrick-St. Vincent
2. Stuart Hall
3. St. Joseph Notre Dame
4. Piedmont
5. Saint Mary’s
6. Lick-Wilmerding
7. Healdsburg
8. McKinleyville
9. Kelseyville
10. Middletown
11. Del Norte
12. Arcata
13. Roseland Prep
14. Gateway
15. Fortuna
DIVISION V
This much is clear in Division V – any result other than University and Branson meeting in the final will be a bit of a shocker, and these teams should certainly be the top two seeds.
Much like Division IV, there are teams here who have sparkling records, but have not faced any top 25-caliber competition. Meanwhile, teams like Urban are on the bubble for meeting eligibility criteria, but could easily make a run if they are eligible. The Blues need to split their games this week in order to be eligible, but can make a strong case for a top three seed with wins over Redwood Christian and Berean Christian.
Following the top two seeds, the rest could get murky here, thanks to the merry-go-round effect of teams beating each other. Consider that Clear Lake split its season series with Cloverdale and has a win over Sonoma Academy, who beat Upper Lake. However, Clear Lake also lost to St. Bernard’s, who lost to Berean Christian. Cloverdale has wins over Berean Christian and Middletown.
PROJECTED SEEDS
1. University
2. Branson
3. Urban
4. Redwood Christian
5. Cloverdale
6. Berean Christian
7. St. Bernard’s
8. Clear Lake
9. Head-Royce
10. San Domenico
11. Sonoma Academy
12. Technology
13. Upper Lake
14. Hoopa Valley
15. Oakland Military Institute
16. Quarry Lane
NATE SMITH
Prep2Prep Senior Contributor February 4, 2018
Our first installment of the North Coast Section boys’ basketball playoff projections breaks down which teams should be in the field and which teams are still fighting to get in. Following section seeding criteria, especially head-to-head and common opponent results, we have ranked the teams accordingly, and discussed the criteria used and how these seeds may change in the near future.
One disclaimer – there may be the possibility of other teams becoming eligible based on record against teams in their own division, but this would likely only affect one or two other teams. In the cases where there are 16 teams listed, there may be others on the bubble who may not currently be included based on what lies ahead on the schedule.
DIVISION IV
The records are almost irrelevant here, since the level of competition varies so widely from one team and one league to the next among Division IV contenders. St. Patrick-St. Vincent and St. Joseph Notre Dame have otherwise average overall records, but few other teams in this field have played competition even remotely close to what these teams have faced, with the possible exception of Lick-Wilmerding, Stuart Hall, and Piedmont.
Stuart Hall, in fact, could have the seeding edge over St. Joe’s, based on the Knights’ win over Sacramento, who beat the Pilots. The Hall also beat Mission and has a pair of wins over Lick.
Other teams from those leagues are also down the list in terms of record, but have quality wins and close losses across the board – teams like Saint Mary’s, who could easily be in contention for a semifinal appearance and NorCal bid. Meanwhile, teams such as Roseland are unbeaten in league, but that should matter very little to the committee.
Healdsburg and Kelseyville are both on track to be league champions, but have little in the way of non-league victories to climb the ladder. Kelseyville, in fact, has losses to both Piedmont and McKinleyville.
PROJECTED SEEDS
1. St. Patrick-St. Vincent
2. Stuart Hall
3. St. Joseph Notre Dame
4. Piedmont
5. Saint Mary’s
6. Lick-Wilmerding
7. Healdsburg
8. McKinleyville
9. Kelseyville
10. Middletown
11. Del Norte
12. Arcata
13. Roseland Prep
14. Gateway
15. Fortuna
DIVISION V
This much is clear in Division V – any result other than University and Branson meeting in the final will be a bit of a shocker, and these teams should certainly be the top two seeds.
Much like Division IV, there are teams here who have sparkling records, but have not faced any top 25-caliber competition. Meanwhile, teams like Urban are on the bubble for meeting eligibility criteria, but could easily make a run if they are eligible. The Blues need to split their games this week in order to be eligible, but can make a strong case for a top three seed with wins over Redwood Christian and Berean Christian.
Following the top two seeds, the rest could get murky here, thanks to the merry-go-round effect of teams beating each other. Consider that Clear Lake split its season series with Cloverdale and has a win over Sonoma Academy, who beat Upper Lake. However, Clear Lake also lost to St. Bernard’s, who lost to Berean Christian. Cloverdale has wins over Berean Christian and Middletown.
PROJECTED SEEDS
1. University
2. Branson
3. Urban
4. Redwood Christian
5. Cloverdale
6. Berean Christian
7. St. Bernard’s
8. Clear Lake
9. Head-Royce
10. San Domenico
11. Sonoma Academy
12. Technology
13. Upper Lake
14. Hoopa Valley
15. Oakland Military Institute
16. Quarry Lane
