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Understanding High School Football Polls

Since PastyFace is always touting Folsom as #1 in NorCal, if they make it to the State Open Game and played Mater Dei, would it ne reasonable to say that MD could score 80-90 against Folsom and have a final score of say 85-7?
Folsom can't make it to the Open Division. It's pretty much impossible.

About the only possibility would be for Pittsburg to win the NCS Open and Valley Christian to win the CCS D-I titles. That's not going to happen.
 
Since PastyFace is always touting Folsom as #1 in NorCal, if they make it to the State Open Game and played Mater Dei, would it ne reasonable to say that MD could score 80-90 against Folsom and have a final score of say 85-7?
It would be 60-0 MD…. Folsom wouldn’t cross Mid Field….

If DLS can can sack Folsom 5 Times with a 3 Man Pass Rush of 2 Way Players, What would Folsom do against MD who Goes 8 Deep of multi star prospects on Their D Line…. 🤣
 
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If any team is getting a free pass right now, it's Menlo-Atherton. I saw the score for their game against Half Moon Bay and was perhaps thinking there may have been some sort of letdown or that the Cougars came back against the Bear reserves.

Ummm... no. M-A's defense is just that bad. I thought it was bad before this game, but you really have to watch it in action to fully appreciate how bad it is.

Really, I would invite any of you to first watch HMB play either Salinas or Los Gatos for reference (don't bother with the Serra game as, well, that's just Serra). Just a quarter is all you'll need. Watch how the Cowboys and/or Wildcats deal with the Cougar offense. Then, watch them play against M-A. It's pretty amazing.

Yes, M-A has a pretty darn good offense, but you'd have to imagine that if they were to play any of the other top teams in the CCS, they'd get stopped at some point. I'd be pretty surprised if they could keep VC, Salinas, or Los Gatos below 40.

Only CalHiSports dropped them. This site and MaxPrep's NorCal rankings kept them right in the same spot. I don't understand how... except to believe that no one saw any of that game against HMB.

M-A vs HMB
 
Yes I also saw the recap on the CC v Oakdale game. I would think that game should be grayed out too. Statically. Oakdale had more total yards. But 4 turnovers. And after a big loss .They were set up to have a let down after a brutal loss. I am looking forward to the Manteca game. After seeing it took overtime to beat East Union. By the time they get to Oakdale they have had to go through Kimball and CC. OAKDALE gets a week off and then Weston Ranch. Then Manteca. Who ever wins that game will get top seed in D3? Who ever makes it out of the VOL will be well tested!
Central Catholic generated a 50.9 rating with their win against Oakdale. They won by 18 points (well under the 31 point cap) and that was added to Oakdale's rating of 32.9 to achieve that rating. That game is actually considered CC's "truest" score. It's the only result that doesn't have a conditional asterisk.



And that pretty much illustrates the difference between a "rating" like Cal Prep and a "ranking" by Cal Hi. Ratings are really just comparative score aggregators that look at the big picture of averages. Very useful, but certainly not telling the whole story. Rankings, which are more subjective, often pay attention to fluke occurrences and take aberrations into account. However, they are sometimes TOO subjective or biased.
 
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It has become obvious now that Folsom fattens up on their weak league opponents while St. Francis and Serra play in a tougher league, with St. Francis beating the big dog this year!


Stop with this nonsense. It invalidates the main point, which is true regarding it being ridiculous that Folsom is ranked/rated higher than DLS. They shouldn’t be.

Having said that, the WCAL has not proven to be a “tougher” league than the SFL over the past decade plus. As for this 2021 season it still is far from a forgone conclusion. It certainly is not “obvious”.

For all we know Folsom just might beat St. Francis, despite differing results against DLS. That kind of thing happens all the time.

In fact, many have predicted St. Francis losing to a league opponent and should that actually happen does it also mean the team(s) that accomplish the feat are >> DLS? Absolutely not.

FWIW the teams currently in the SFL are 6-2 against the WCAL all-time. The two losses occured during the same season when Del Oro and Folsom both lost close games to the Troy Martig led WCAL Champs.

4 of the 6 wins by the SFL were against the WCAL Champ and/or the NorCal Regional representative. Average score was 28-14.

None of that means a thing re: this season. But it does demonstrate that the current SFL lineup (4 of the 7 teams that have actually faced WCAL competition) has stacked up very well against the WCAL this millennium.
 
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And then there is the best test of all: The time-honored eyeball test.
At a very limited way, yes. What is your eye-ball test of Mission Viejo? Corona del Mar? Hanford? Or closer to home - Alisal? Santa Clara? Carlmont? Harker?

I suspect your answer would be, like mine, "don't know" or "don't care." To come even close to what Calpreps or others like it does, you need to eyeball test 15,000 games every week.

On specific teams and games, the eyeball test should beat Calpreps every time. But in fact, we can't have a broad enough eyeball to review very many teams/games. So we turn to respected football experts to extend our representative "eyeball" tests. Then often we will also turn to respected and time-honored pollsters for their accumulative eyeball test (and subjective conjecture). Now we have extended (and watered down) our "eyeball" test. Yet still we have reviewed only a couple hundred teams and their games if we are lucky. Keep going.... only 14,700 more teams to review... I think I will do what a lot of my respected pollsters will do - at least take a glance at Calpreps.
 
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If any team is getting a free pass right now, it's Menlo-Atherton. I saw the score for their game against Half Moon Bay and was perhaps thinking there may have been some sort of letdown or that the Cougars came back against the Bear reserves.

Ummm... no. M-A's defense is just that bad. I thought it was bad before this game, but you really have to watch it in action to fully appreciate how bad it is.

Really, I would invite any of you to first watch HMB play either Salinas or Los Gatos for reference (don't bother with the Serra game as, well, that's just Serra). Just a quarter is all you'll need. Watch how the Cowboys and/or Wildcats deal with the Cougar offense. Then, watch them play against M-A. It's pretty amazing.

Yes, M-A has a pretty darn good offense, but you'd have to imagine that if they were to play any of the other top teams in the CCS, they'd get stopped at some point. I'd be pretty surprised if they could keep VC, Salinas, or Los Gatos below 40.

Only CalHiSports dropped them. This site and MaxPrep's NorCal rankings kept them right in the same spot. I don't understand how... except to believe that no one saw any of that game against HMB.

M-A vs HMB
I thought about moving them down, but I didn't see a natural team to move over them. There are concerns about M-A, which is being held up in part by its win over McClymonds.
 
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