Pal
I have another question. Does how big or small somebody wins a game does that affect the rankings? Four instance if a team was predicted to win 35-28 by calpreps and they win 40-0 does that affect how much they move up or down in the rankings?
It depends on how closely the two teams are rated.
If Team A (rated
30) beats Team B (rated
12) by
7, Team A gets a game value of
27 (there is a minimum 15 points added to the losing team's rating for a close win), while Team B gets a game value of
15 (again, a maximum 15 point drop from the winning team's rating for a close loss). This would be a slight drag on Team A's rating, while at the same time, a slight boost to Team B's.
If Team A beats Team B by
25, Team A gets a game value of
37 (25 + Team B's rating). Team B gets a game value of
5 (Team A's rating - 25). Team A gets a boost, while Team B gets a drop.
If Team A beats Team B by
40, Team A gets a game value of
42 (there is a maximum 30 points added to the losing team's rating for a big win), while Team B gets a game value of
0 (again, a maximum 30 point drop from the winning team's rating for a big loss). Team A gets a nice boost, while Team B gets a big drop.
If Team A is rated
30, but Team B is rated
-20, all of the above mathematics apply, however, the impact of the game is really minimal on the overall rating of both teams if the game is a blowout (more than
30-point margin). Any result within
30 points, though, would have a big negative impact on Team A (e.g., at most a
9 game value for a
29-point win), but a big positive impact on Team B (e.g., a least a
-5 game rating for a close loss).
The overall rating of a team is roughly the average of the "significant" games. For many of the high-powered teams, a lot of the opponents aren't rated within 30, so a lot of games are not considered to be significant. For moderately-rated teams, there typically will be more of these games. The fewer significant games, the greater potential impact of a significant result. The more of these games, the less likely that these individual results will strongly impact a team's rating.
One of the sole exceptions to this are when one team is undefeated. An undefeated team must always remain rated higher than one of their defeated opponents. This is true even if one of the games was a big upset and the rest of the season would strongly suggest that the defeated team should be rated higher. In these cases, the ratings tend to be tied together and the undefeated team's rating can get inflated due to the success of that stronger opponent.
Hope this helps and does not further confuse the matter.
