With 4 playoff games this week involving 5 of 8 of the WCAL league teams we will see 8 teams all in the top 12 of the CCS; #1 -Serra, #2- St. Francis, #3-Salinas, #4-Mitty, #8-Wilcox, #10-Aptos,
#11-Bells, #12-St. Ignatius
First of all here are the projections:
Serra 42-21 over Salinas
SF 28-19 over Mitty in rematch
Wilcox 26-21 over Bells
Aptos over St. Ignatius 27-26
Here's how last weeks projections went for the WCAL teams:
Serra won easily as projected by 40+ over Palma.
SF projected to win 28-17 over SHC barely held on to win 17-14 over the Irish.
Mitty was an 11-point underdog and shocked Los Gatos in O/T by 29-28.
S.I. favored by 18 over HMB won by 9 in 24-15 win over the Cougars.
Some Facts about the match-ups in regards to the Projections:
Serra vs Salinas: Serra is undefeated 11-0 while Salinas is 10-1 with only loss to Aptos 44-41. Common opponent for both teams is Palma whom Serra defeated 57-7 and Salinas 47-14. Salinas top win was over CVC by 21-14.
SF vs Mitty: The Lancers overwhelmed Mitty in regular season by 35-13. Common opponent was Serra with Lancers losing 28-7 and Mitty losing by 35-7.
Bells vs Wilcox: Common opponent M-A whom Bells played twice however I will not count the first meeting which M-A won 48-34. M-A then had Jurion Dickey who scored 4 TD's in the game & M-A is a different team without Dickey]. OK so in the 2 "Dickey-less" games M-A played vs Bells & Wilcox, Wilcox got by M-A 21-20 and Bells last week pulled away from M-A to win confortably by 30-7.
St. Ignatius vs Aptos: Aptos had the huge win over then undefeated Salinas by 44-41 and yet lost to Palma 24-21. St. Ignatius big win was an upset over Mitty by 24-21 and played solid vs Serra losing 21-7.
"SOS" Strength of Schedule favors WCAL teams in regards to projections:
While the win-loss records seem to indicate possible "mismatches" it is not likely in the upcoming games: ie: Bells 5-6 vs Wilcox 10-1 and S.I. 5-6 vs Aptos 9-2. Of the 8 teams playing in the semi finals here are their "SOS" ratings in order:
Serra 32.7
St. Francis 32.3
Mitty 25.8
S.I. 25.7
Bells 24.4
Salinas 14.0
Aptos 6.0
Wilcox 2.9
Conclusion: of the 4 games it certainly looks like the possibility of 1-2 upsets: SF did not look great last week while Mitty came through with the upset vs Los Gatos. Bells have one of their best players back and played solid vs M-A. I see the Bells vs Wilcox game as a toss-up. If S.I. could upset Mitty then I see them having a good chance vs Aptos - S.I. has been an "up & down" team week to week so just depends which S.I. team shows up [the S.I. defense will have to contain the Aptos offense to have a chance at the upset].
#11-Bells, #12-St. Ignatius
First of all here are the projections:
Serra 42-21 over Salinas
SF 28-19 over Mitty in rematch
Wilcox 26-21 over Bells
Aptos over St. Ignatius 27-26
Here's how last weeks projections went for the WCAL teams:
Serra won easily as projected by 40+ over Palma.
SF projected to win 28-17 over SHC barely held on to win 17-14 over the Irish.
Mitty was an 11-point underdog and shocked Los Gatos in O/T by 29-28.
S.I. favored by 18 over HMB won by 9 in 24-15 win over the Cougars.
Some Facts about the match-ups in regards to the Projections:
Serra vs Salinas: Serra is undefeated 11-0 while Salinas is 10-1 with only loss to Aptos 44-41. Common opponent for both teams is Palma whom Serra defeated 57-7 and Salinas 47-14. Salinas top win was over CVC by 21-14.
SF vs Mitty: The Lancers overwhelmed Mitty in regular season by 35-13. Common opponent was Serra with Lancers losing 28-7 and Mitty losing by 35-7.
Bells vs Wilcox: Common opponent M-A whom Bells played twice however I will not count the first meeting which M-A won 48-34. M-A then had Jurion Dickey who scored 4 TD's in the game & M-A is a different team without Dickey]. OK so in the 2 "Dickey-less" games M-A played vs Bells & Wilcox, Wilcox got by M-A 21-20 and Bells last week pulled away from M-A to win confortably by 30-7.
St. Ignatius vs Aptos: Aptos had the huge win over then undefeated Salinas by 44-41 and yet lost to Palma 24-21. St. Ignatius big win was an upset over Mitty by 24-21 and played solid vs Serra losing 21-7.
"SOS" Strength of Schedule favors WCAL teams in regards to projections:
While the win-loss records seem to indicate possible "mismatches" it is not likely in the upcoming games: ie: Bells 5-6 vs Wilcox 10-1 and S.I. 5-6 vs Aptos 9-2. Of the 8 teams playing in the semi finals here are their "SOS" ratings in order:
Serra 32.7
St. Francis 32.3
Mitty 25.8
S.I. 25.7
Bells 24.4
Salinas 14.0
Aptos 6.0
Wilcox 2.9
Conclusion: of the 4 games it certainly looks like the possibility of 1-2 upsets: SF did not look great last week while Mitty came through with the upset vs Los Gatos. Bells have one of their best players back and played solid vs M-A. I see the Bells vs Wilcox game as a toss-up. If S.I. could upset Mitty then I see them having a good chance vs Aptos - S.I. has been an "up & down" team week to week so just depends which S.I. team shows up [the S.I. defense will have to contain the Aptos offense to have a chance at the upset].