Here's how I see the Gabilan this year...
I think Salinas is still the team to beat, but I don't have enormous confidence they'll run the table. They may have some more playmakers (Turner at WR) than last year, which could bring back flashes of 2022. The great JV team coming in may have to contribute a lot to keep them from a 7 or 8 D-I/Open playoff seed. It would not be out of the question to see this team be the #1 public school in the CCS. The Cowboys could take a 1/4 to 1/2-step forward.
Soquel probably really surprised everyone last year... at least everyone not from Soquel. Given that they're still relatively young boasts a lot of promise for this program, but they still lost some studs. I just hope their non-league schedule doesn't contribute to injuries that impact their league success. Keep QB Whelan upright and they should contend for the league title. The Knights should take about a 1/2-step forward.
Monterey was another young team last year, but they were not as consistent as Soquel. Lots of speed/experience (15 returning starters!) and a boost from actually being able to practice under of the lights on campus should help morale. Is this the year they return to their top-division championship glory days? Not sure, but I think the chase is on towards Salinas and Soquel. The 'Dores could take a 1/2 to 3/4-step forward.
Palma boasted a D-1 WR last year, but that didn't really translate into a scary passing offense. This year, they'll return an up-and-coming sophomore RB for probably more of a ground-dominated attack. 20 years ago, you might have said, that sounds pretty good for Palma, but a lot has happened in the game over that time period. The Chieftains may improve, but they'll be chasing others who may improve more. 0 to 1/4-step forward.
There probably isn't a program in the area with more questions than with Aptos. Sometimes new coaches bring new energy and ideas, but historically, there has been a significant drop when a great coach leaves this school. Has enough knowledge been passed down from Coach Blankenship? Will Coach Hewett take the team in a new dynamic direction? So hard to say, but they should improve from their 2-win season a year ago. 1/2-step backward to 1/2-step forward.
The Hollister program hasn't really been the same over the last several years. I suspect we know why, but there have been glimpses of good competition (took Palma to OT) only to be countered by some head-scratchers (lost to Alvarez). Not too surprising, the non-league schedule is not as heavy as it's been in years' past. A lot of questions surround this program, but there's a lot of room to improve. 1/4-step backward to 1/4-step forward.
Alvarez ended up being their own worst enemy last year. With a loss to Carmel already under their belt, they went out and beat Hollister the following game. It's unfortunate, but this program just doesn't belong in this division. I hope their non-league schedule gives them a confidence boost, but things are going to get real immediately after that. 0 to 1/4 step forward.
Ultimately, this should be an exciting year. Prediction:
Salinas wins the title outright - 35%
Salinas and Soquel tie for co-championship - 35%
Salinas and Monterey tie for co-championship - 15%
Salinas, Monterey, and Soquel tie for tri-championship - 15%
Other divisions:
Mission North - Scotts Valley certainly has a shot to repeat as champs, but look out for Monte Vista Christian and their 15 returning starters. It's a shame Alisal lost their coach... hard to have continuity when this keeps happening.
Mission South - This division begins and ends with Carmel, who probably should have replaced Alvarez in the Gabilan. North High is attempting a resurgence, but the game with Salinas will probably demonstrate how much further they need to come.
Santa Lucia - With Greenfield having moved up to the Mission South, this should be a two-team race between Gonzales and Robert Louis Stevenson, with San Lorenzo Valley as a darkhorse.