With two weeks to go and the end of the regular season in sight; 20 of the 40 play-off spots have clinched and another 14 are highly likely barring an improbable upset. Six spots are still up in the air. Of course, all outcomes will impact play-off seedings.
Week eight saw numerous upsets, some much bigger than others, but it is the time of year where some teams have their backs against the wall and others with small rosters may be struggling with injuries and lack of depth. Palo Alto and Stevenson were projected intot he field this week replacing Aragon and Greenfield.
Division I
The three impactful results this week were Palma’s 24-21 win over Aptos which projects Palma into D I and Aptos into D 2. Los Gatos decisive win over over Wilcox 28-7 which moved them from the 7th seed to the 3rd seed and dropped Wilcox from D 1 (Sacred Heart Cathedral moved up form D 2 with their 23-10 win over Bellarmine) and St. Ignatius 24-21 win over Mitty which dropped Mitty from a projected 2nd seed to the 5th seed.
8. Palma 8-2 68.5 (#2 in D2) vs 1. Serra 10-0 88 (1)
5. Mitty 7-3 71.33 (2) vs 4. Sacred Heart Prep 9-1 73 (4)
6. Salinas 9-1 70 (6) vs 3. Los Gatos 8-2 76 (7)
7. Sacred Heart Cathedral 6-4 68.83 (1 in D 2) vs 2. St Francis 7-3 79.5 (3)
Dropped out Wilcox 10-0 70 (5 in D 1); Aptos 9-1 68.5 (8 in D 1)
Division 2
Most impactful results on D 2 were Burlingame’s 29-27 upset over Half Moon Bay and Live Oak’s decisive 42-14 win over Lincoln.
8. Burlingame 6-4 52.5 (#7 in D3) vs 1. Wilcox 9-1 64 (#5 in D1)
5. St. Ignatius 4-6 58.5 (7) vs 4. Bellarmine 4-6 59 (5)
6 Half Moon Bay 8-2 57 (2) vs 3. Menlo Atherton 5-5 61.5 (3)
7. Live Oak 9-1 57 (#5 in D3) vs 2. Aptos 8-2 63.5 (#8 in D1)
Dropped out: Christopher 9-1 51.5 (8) Lincoln 10-0 57 (4)
Division 3
This division was most impacted by the upsets in the Deanza where Palo Alto beat Mountain View 48-35 and Milpitas upset Homestead 14-7. Both losers should make the play-offs but in D4.
8. Sequoia 9-1 41 (#6 in D4) vs 1. Lincoln 9-1 51.5 (#4 in D2)
5. St. Francis (W) 10-0 44.5 (#3 in D 4) vs 4. Christopher 8-2 47.5 (#8 in D2)
6. Kings Academy 8-2 44 (8) vs 3. Hollister 5-5 48 (2)
7. Menlo 4-6 41.5 (3) vs 2. Soquel 9-1 48.33 (1)
Dropped out: Homestead 5-5 43 (6) Mountain View 4-6 46 (4)
Division 4
Biggest results here were Overfelt’s 27-21 win over Westmont and San Mateo's 27-14 win over Terra Nova.
8. Westmont 9-1 32 (1) vs 1. Homestead 4-6 39.5 (#6 in D3)
5. Terra Nova 7-3 34.5 (4) vs 4. San Mateo 7-3 35 (#4 in D 5)
6. Soledad 8-2 34 (7) vs 3. Santa Teresa 5-5 36.5 (8)
7. Overfelt 9-1 33.5 (#3 in D5) vs 2. Mountain View 3-7 37.5 (4)
Dropped out Aragon 4-6 40.5 (#2) Branham 9-1 36 (5)
Division 5
8. Willow Glen 8-2 19.5 (8) vs 1. Branham 9-1 32 (#5 in D4)
5. Palo Alto 4-6 26.5 (not in field) vs 4. Pioneer 8-2 27.5 (1)
6. Woodside 7-3 22 (7) vs 3. Monterey 7-3 28 (2)
7. Stevenson 6-2 (not in field) 19.94 vs 2. Seaside 6-4 29.83 (5)
Dropped out: Greenfield 7-3 20.5 (6)
A leagues 4 automatic spots
WCAL – Only big news was St. Ignatius pulling off a 24-21 upset over Mitty. Even with this win St. Ignatius may need to beat Riordan in week 10 to make the play-offs. Serra continues to dominate the league having won all five of its games by 21 points or more.
Qualified – Serra, St. Francis, Mitty, Sacred Heart Cathedral
Likely – Bellarmine, St. Ignatius
DeAnza – Los Gatos easily beat Wilcox 28-21 and with either a win over Mountain View or a Wilcox loss to Homestead wins the league outright next week. Facing elimination both Palo Alto (48-35 over Mountain View) and Milpitas (14-7 over Homestead) pulled off big upsets to keep their play-off aspirations alive. Unless Mountain View beats Los Gatos, the winner of this weeks game where Milpitas travels to Palo Alto will gain the league’s fourth automatic berth. Palo Alto should be a slight favorite. Mountain View is likely to make the field as an at-large team.
Qualified - Los Gatos, Wilcox
Likely – Homestead, Mountain View and winner of Palo Alto -Milpitas game
PAL-Bay- Burlingame pulled off an upset defeating Half Moon Bay 29-27. This week Menlo Atherton heads cross town to play Sacred Heart Prep. SHP can clinch the league crown with a win. A Menlo-Atherton win likely results in co-champions. Half Moon Bay, Burlingame and Menlo should make the field regardless of their results over the last two weeks. Two of these teams will get the last two automatic spots and the third should get an at-large berth, although Menlo’s position would be tenuous. With the current projections, Aragon just misses the play-offs if they split their last two games (lose to Half Moon Bay, Beat Hillsdale) and need an upset win this week to improve their position in the section at-large selection.
Qualified - Sacred Heart Prep, Menlo-Atherton, Half Moon Bay
Likely - Burlingame
On Bubble – Menlo, Aragon
Gabilan – Palma beat Aptos 24-21 to remain the league’s sole unbeaten team. This sets up a week 10 showdown between Palma and Salinas where Salinas should be a slight favorite. A Salinas win likely creates a three-way tie between Aptos (assuming they beat Hollister in week 10), Palma and Salinas. A Palma win gives them an outright league championship. The top four spots in this league have been decided with Aptos, Hollister, Palma and Salinas all qualified for the play-offs. None of the other team will be close to an at-large berth unless Alisal upsets Aptos this week.
Qualified Palma, Salinas, Aptos, Hollister
Mt. Hamilton – This has been a highly competitive league with the teams fairly evenly matched. Santa Teresa has had all three of their league games go to overtime. Live Oak had a decisive win over Lincoln 42-14 and is the league’s last unbeaten team and the only team to clinch a play-off berth. Lincoln (hosting Santa Teresa) and Christopher (hosting Oak Grove) can both clinch a play-off spot with a win this week. The final spot is likely to come down to the week 10 game between Oak Grove and Santa Teresa. It is unlikely that the fifth-place team from this league will get an at-large spot in the play-offs.
Qualified - Live Oak
Likely – Lincoln, Christopher
On Bubble – Santa Teresa, Oak Grove
B Leagues – Two Automatic Spots except for Mission 3 and Cypress 1
El Camino – Kings Academy and Sequoia both clinched play-off spots and play this week for the league championship with the loser guaranteed second place. None of the other teams are in contention for an at-large berth.
Qualified – Kings Academy, Sequoia
Ocean – San Mateo beat Terra Nova 26-14 last week to gain sole possession of first place. By virtue of Hillsdale’s 27-6 win over Capuchino, Terra Nova also clinched a play-off spot. San Mateo can win the league outright with a win over Capuchino this week. Terra Nova faces Jefferson and even if they lose will hold all second-place tie breakers over Hillsdale and/or Capuchino. No one from this league is likely to get an at-large berth.
Qualified – San Mateo, Terra Nova
Mission – Soquel has qualified for the play-offs and can wrap up an outright title with a win this week in their final regular season game against Monta Vista Christian. The other two spots come down to Monterey, Seaside, and Scotts Valley. Seaside travel to Scotts Valley this week and Scotts Valley will be eliminated from consideration with a loss. Seaside travels to Monterey in week 10. There is unlikely to be an at-large team from this league.
Qualified – Soquel
On Bubble – Monterey, Seaside, Scotts Valley (two will qualify)
Cypress – The week 10 game with Soledad hosting St. Francis will determine the league’s sole qualifier. If both teams win their games this week, the loser will be positioned to get a final at-large spot.
Likely – St. Francis, Soledad
Foothill – Branham (at Piedmont Hills) and Pioneer (hosting Gilroy) both can clinch a play-off spot this week ahead of their week 10 contest. No team from this league will get an at-large berth.
Likely - Branham, Pioneer
Valley –. Overfelt beat Westmont 27-21 in a game that likely determined the league title. Barring a big upset in the final two weeks Overfelt and Westmont should be the league’s two play-off representatives. There is a scenario where a Sobrato (assuming Sobrato can get past Leigh this week) upset of Overfelt in week 10 could alter this projection.
Likely -Overfelt, Westmont
C Leagues – One spot
PAL Lake – Woodside has clinched this spot regardless of the remaining outcomes over the next two weeks.
Qualified – Woodside
Santa Lucia – Stevenson is in control of the league after defeating Greenfield 21-13 and clinch the league’s play-off berth with a won at Gonzales this week. A Gonzales win would likely create a three-way tie for first with Greenfield going into week 10 and Gonzales would be able to win the spot with wins over Stevenson and Greenfield in the final two weeks.
On Bubble – Stevenson, Gonzales, Greenfield (One will qualify)
West Valley – Mt. Pleasant defeated Del Mar 21-7 and can clinch the league’s play-off spot with a win at Willow Glen this week where they will be a slight underdog. A Willow Glen win this week likely continues the race to week 10 where Willow Glen will travel to one loss Del Mar.
On Bubble Willow Glen, Del Mar, Mt. Pleasant (one will qualify)
