Developing Look at the CIF Bowl Divisions

[Cal 14]

Lots of upsets have shaken up the list this week. Several top seeds lost, while others have secured their spots. I'm guessing that one division is now locked in place.

Italics = Officially Advancing


Open Division (Section Division, Calpreps ratings)

North: De La Salle (NCS Open, 67.1) vs. South: Mater Dei (SS D-I, 102.7)

D-1AA

North: Folsom (SJS D-1, 61.6) vs. Pittsburg (NCS D-1, 53.2)

South: Murrieta Valley (SS D-2, 63.4) vs. Lincoln (SDS Open, 63.0)

D-1A

North: Central (CS D-IAA, 54.9) vs. St. Ignatius (CCS Open, 47.7)

South: Simi Valley (SS D-3, 50.5) vs. San Marcos (SDS D-I, 43.9)

D-2AA

North: Rocklin (SJS D-2, 47.6) vs. St. Francis (CCS D-I, 40.2)

South: St. Bonaventure (SS D-4, 42.5) vs. Frontier (CS D-IA, 31.7)

D-2A

North: Twelve Bridges (SJS D-4, 39.8) vs. Wilcox (CCS D-II, 31.7)

South: Palos Verdes Estates (SS D-5, 32.2) vs. Bakersfield Christian (CS D-II, 31.0)

D-3AA

North: Bradshaw Christian (SJS D-6, 29.3) vs. Amador Valley (NCS D-2, 27.2)

South: Murrieta Mesa (SS D-6, 27.9) vs. Mater Dei Catholic (SDS D-II, 27.4)

D-3A

North: Oakdale (SJS D-3, 27.8) vs. McClymonds (OS, 12.6)

South: Narbonne (LACS Open, 25.1) vs. Warren (SS D-7, 24.0)

D-4AA

North: Pleasant Valley (NS D-2, 25.3) vs. Acalanes (NCS D-3, 18.2)

South: Highland (SS D-9, 18.2) vs. Shafter (CS D-IV, 17.3)

D-4A

North: Hughson (SJS D-5, 20.8) vs. St. Vincent de Paul (NCS D-5, 16.3)

South: Serrano (SS D-8, 16.2) vs. Madera (CS D-II, 13.6)

D-5AA

North: Carmel (CCS D-III, 16.1) vs. American Canyon (NCS D-4, 12.1)

South: San Pasqual (SDS D-III, 8.4) vs. St. Anthony (SS D-10, 6.4)

D-5A

North: Arcata (NCS D-6, 9.6) vs. Winters (NS D-4, 9.0)

South: El Capitan (SDS D-IV, 3.6) vs. El Rancho (SS D-11, 0.0)

D-6AA

North: Lassen (NS D-3, 7.1) vs. Sacred Heart Prep (CCS D-IV, 6.2)

South: Palmdale (SS D-12, 0.0) vs. Palisades (LACS D-I, -3.9)

D-6A

North: Summerville (SJS D-7, 5.0) vs. Moreau Catholic (NCS D-7, 3.5)

South: Morro Bay (CS D-V, -4.1) vs. Gahr (SS D-13, -12.6)

D-7AA

North: Leland (CCS D-V, -5.7) vs. Lincoln (SFS, -15.3)

South: Bonita Vista (SDS D-V, -15.1) vs. Chatsworth (LACS D-II, -24.5)

D-7A

North: Lindsay (CS D-VI, -17.4) vs. Maxwell (NS D-5, -22.7)

South: Pioneer (SS D-14, -28.0) vs. Van Nuys (LACS D-III, -35.2)

 

[Cal 14]

North:

1. Pittsburg vs. Central - Since Central's season is over, their rating will probably not move much. Pittsburg, on the other hand, has an opportunity to boost theirs with a win over highly-rated San Ramon Valley. My guess this, in conjunction with the notion that the Pirates' losses were "better", may put them in D-1AA over the Grizzlies (even though both of their losses were avenged in the playoffs).

2. Rocklin vs. St. Ignatius - In a similar manner, we have a Rocklin, whose rating could get a boost with a win over Grant. In this case, though, I don't see the voters matching up the Wildcats with Saint Francis for a third time this season.

3. Saint Francis vs. Twelve Bridges - While this is also a place where ratings change could raise an eyebrow, it appears that the Lancers would be the one getting the boost, as they play Los Gatos this week. But again, the voters will not likely want Saint Francis to play another CCS team in Wilcox in D-2A.

South:

1. What to do with Narbonne? - It's hoped that the voters don't look at the division and history when placing the Gauchos. Nothing about their season suggests they are any better than a mid-20s rated team. Yes, they lost many opportunities to fine tune their number when their entire league forfeited against them, but even in the playoffs, they aren't suggesting much different than their pre-league results. It wouldn't be a travesty for them to be placed in D-3AA, since that and D-3A are relatively interchangeable for the southern teams.

2. In multiple southern divisions, the top three seeds have been eliminated: 4 in the SS, 2 in the SDS, and 1 in the LACS. In SS D-11, the 16 seed has made it all the way to the finals where they will face the 6 seed.

3. Higher seed = home field advantage? Not in the SS! - SS D-1 is going to be played at a neutral site, but the remaining 13 divisions' finals are to be hosted by one of the two teams. In 7 of those, the lower seed is the host. In the above example for D-11, the 16 seed has the home field advantage. The reason? In only the first round does the higher seed automatically get home field. The remaining games are decided by a coin toss.

Overall:

1. The divisions had a lot of movement this week, particularly in the south where there were a number of upsets.

2. Much like last year, the north has the ratings advantage in most of the divisions. It was obvious that the best option would have been to place Clovis North in the south last year, but it's less so this season. If Central were to go to the south, either Frontier or Bakersfield Christian would have to go to the north. However, I don't think that would really fix the disparity much.

 

[PALFan]

I still don't get placing Folsom that high, that loss to Serra was bad. SI played a tougher schedule and beat the team that beat Folsom (Serra), avenged an earlier loss to a team that beat Serra (SF) and lost to a team that has a high rating (SRV) as well as beating a highly rated team (Cathedral Catholic). Folsom didn't play anyone with as high of a rating as SRV or Cathedral Catholic. Strength of schedule should matter, as well as bad losses.

 

[Sacchiefs]

Lots of upsets have shaken up the list this week. Several top seeds lost, while others have secured their spots. I'm guessing that one division is now locked in place.

Italics = Officially Advancing


Open Division (Section Division, Calpreps ratings)

North: De La Salle (NCS Open, 67.1) vs. South: Mater Dei (SS D-I, 102.7)

D-1AA

North: Folsom (SJS D-1, 6.16) vs. Pittsburg (NCS D-1, 53.2)

South: Murrieta Valley (SS D-2, 63.4) vs. Lincoln (SDS Open, 63.0)

D-1A

North: Central (CS D-IAA, 54.9) vs. St. Ignatius (CCS Open, 47.7)

South: Simi Valley (SS D-3, 50.5) vs. San Marcos (SDS D-I, 43.9)

D-2AA

North: Rocklin (SJS D-2, 47.6) vs. St. Francis (CCS D-I, 40.2)

South: St. Bonaventure (SS D-4, 42.5) vs. Frontier (CS D-IA, 31.7)

D-2A

North: Twelve Bridges (SJS D-4, 39.8) vs. Wilcox (CCS D-II, 31.7)

South: Palos Verdes Estates (SS D-5, 32.2) vs. Bakersfield Christian (CS D-II, 31.0)

D-3AA

North: Bradshaw Christian (SJS D-6, 29.3) vs. Amador Valley (NCS D-2, 27.2)

South: Murrieta Mesa (SS D-6, 27.9) vs. Mater Dei Catholic (SDS D-II, 27.4)

D-3A

North: Oakdale (SJS D-3, 27.8) vs. McClymonds (OS, 12.6)

South: Narbonne (LACS Open, 25.1) vs. Warren (SS D-7, 24.0)

D-4AA

North: Pleasant Valley (NS D-2, 25.3) vs. Acalanes (NCS D-3, 18.2)

South: Highland (SS D-9, 18.2) vs. Shafter (CS D-IV, 17.3)

D-4A

North: Hughson (SJS D-5, 20.8) vs. St. Vincent de Paul (NCS D-5, 16.3)

South: Serrano (SS D-8, 16.2) vs. Madera (CS D-II, 13.6)

D-5AA

North: Carmel (CCS D-III, 16.1) vs. American Canyon (NCS D-4, 12.1)

South: San Pasqual (SDS D-III, 8.4) vs. St. Anthony (SS D-10, 6.4)

D-5A

North: Arcata (NCS D-6, 9.6) vs. Winters (NS D-4, 9.0)

South: El Capitan (SDS D-IV, 3.6) vs. El Rancho (SS D-11, 0.0)

D-6AA

North: Lassen (NS D-3, 7.1) vs. Sacred Heart Prep (CCS D-IV, 6.2)

South: Palmdale (SS D-12, 0.0) vs. Palisades (LACS D-I, -3.9)

D-6A

North: Summerville (SJS D-7, 5.0) vs. Moreau Catholic (NCS D-7, 3.5)

South: Morro Bay (CS D-V, -4.1) vs. Gahr (SS D-13, -12.6)

D-7AA

North: Leland (CCS D-V, -5.7) vs. Lincoln (SFS, -15.3)

South: Bonita Vista (SDS D-V, -15.1) vs. Chatsworth (LACS D-II, -24.5)

D-7A

North: Lindsay (CS D-VI, -17.4) vs. Maxwell (NS D-5, -22.7)

South: Pioneer (SS D-14, -28.0) vs. Van Nuys (LACS D-III, -35.2)

Appreciate the hard work brotha.. looks good minus Rocklin instead of Grant

Question for you Cal..

in the past the Sac Joaquin Section has pit its champs against each other. In 2014 the D2 champ Grant played against Folsom the D1 champ. Last year, the D3 champ Grant played against Rocklin the D2 champ. There maybe additional examples.

Do you see this happening again. Why does this happen in the first place. Do other sections do this. I'm just curious and you seem to have a really good understanding of the CIF. Ty

 

[NCS707]

Hopefully they go Oakdale vs Pleasant Valley
And McClymonds vs Alaclanes.

Pleasant Valley always seems to get places really low and McClymonds does seem a bit down this year compared to the last 10-15.

 

[Cal 14]

I still don't get placing Folsom that high, that loss to Serra was bad. SI played a tougher schedule and beat the team that beat Folsom (Serra), avenged an earlier loss to a team that beat Serra (SF) and lost to a team that has a high rating (SRV) as well as beating a highly rated team (Cathedral Catholic). Folsom didn't play anyone with as high of a rating as SRV or Cathedral Catholic. Strength of schedule should matter, as well as bad losses.

I agree that the common opponent criterion could be applied here. I also think that this might be fighting an uphill battle since both Calpreps and Cal-Hi will have Folsom higher, with sizeable gaps (especially with Calpreps).

But then who do you move up? Central just knocked off an undefeated Clovis East team, who is higher than Cathedral Catholic on both systems. I think it would have been easier to drop the Bulldogs had CE won the CS D-IAA title.

Now, Folsom's rating/ranking advantage may be too much to overcome vs the other D-1 options. If they blow out Oak Ridge, then the gap may only widen. A close game could reduce the gap, but I don't know by how much.

 

[Cal 14]

Appreciate the hard work brotha.. looks good minus Rocklin instead of Grant

Question for you Cal..

in the past the Sac Joaquin Section has pit its champs against each other. In 2014 the D2 champ Grant played against Folsom the D1 champ. Last year, the D3 champ Grant played against Rocklin the D2 champ. There maybe additional examples.

Do you see this happening again. Why does this happen in the first place. Do other sections do this. I'm just curious and you seem to have a really good understanding of the CIF. Ty

Grant absolutely could take down Rocklin. They did a great job against St. Mary's last week.

In 2014, there were far fewer options in terms of number of divisions.

Last year, I think you were probably going to get stuck with an all-SJS division either way. You could have had Rocklin face either Folsom in D-1A or Grant in D-2AA. As it turned out, in either case, the Thunder probably wasn't going to advance to the finals.

I think where the teams are now, it would be easier to separate all of the sections without any glaring issues. I would guess that all of the sections might see that as ideal.

The placement of McClymonds remains a mystery as I think Calpreps had them erroneously rated to start the year. That could impact the placement of Hughson for either D-4AA or D-4A.

 

[Cal 14]

Hopefully they go Oakdale vs Pleasant Valley
And McClymonds vs Alaclanes.

Pleasant Valley always seems to get places really low and McClymonds does seem a bit down this year compared to the last 10-15.

For McClymonds, it really depends on how much the voters weigh in history... and Cal-Hi (who weighs history quite a bit). There is the notion that they're much better than their Calpreps rating because they played Riordan closely... but that was way back in the beginning of the season. Both they and Narbonne in the south are the hardest to place.

For me, I can see Mac being placed anywhere between D-3A and D-4A. I don't think they'd drop lower than that, despite their rating.

Pleasant Valley vs. Oakdale would also potentially be a good game.

Not that PV was placed in D-5AA last year and got blown out in the finals.