Developing Look at the CIF Bowl Divisions

[Cal 14]

Lots of upsets have shaken up the list this week. Several top seeds lost, while others have secured their spots. I'm guessing that one division is now locked in place.

Italics = Officially Advancing


Open Division (Section Division, Calpreps ratings)

North: De La Salle (NCS Open, 67.1) vs. South: Mater Dei (SS D-I, 102.7)

D-1AA

North: Folsom (SJS D-1, 61.6) vs. Pittsburg (NCS D-1, 53.2)

South: Murrieta Valley (SS D-2, 63.4) vs. Lincoln (SDS Open, 63.0)

D-1A

North: Central (CS D-IAA, 54.9) vs. St. Ignatius (CCS Open, 47.7)

South: Simi Valley (SS D-3, 50.5) vs. San Marcos (SDS D-I, 43.9)

D-2AA

North: Rocklin (SJS D-2, 47.6) vs. St. Francis (CCS D-I, 40.2)

South: St. Bonaventure (SS D-4, 42.5) vs. Frontier (CS D-IA, 31.7)

D-2A

North: Twelve Bridges (SJS D-4, 39.8) vs. Wilcox (CCS D-II, 31.7)

South: Palos Verdes Estates (SS D-5, 32.2) vs. Bakersfield Christian (CS D-II, 31.0)

D-3AA

North: Bradshaw Christian (SJS D-6, 29.3) vs. Amador Valley (NCS D-2, 27.2)

South: Murrieta Mesa (SS D-6, 27.9) vs. Mater Dei Catholic (SDS D-II, 27.4)

D-3A

North: Oakdale (SJS D-3, 27.8) vs. McClymonds (OS, 12.6)

South: Narbonne (LACS Open, 25.1) vs. Warren (SS D-7, 24.0)

D-4AA

North: Pleasant Valley (NS D-2, 25.3) vs. Acalanes (NCS D-3, 18.2)

South: Highland (SS D-9, 18.2) vs. Shafter (CS D-IV, 17.3)

D-4A

North: Hughson (SJS D-5, 20.8) vs. St. Vincent de Paul (NCS D-5, 16.3)

South: Serrano (SS D-8, 16.2) vs. Madera (CS D-II, 13.6)

D-5AA

North: Carmel (CCS D-III, 16.1) vs. American Canyon (NCS D-4, 12.1)

South: San Pasqual (SDS D-III, 8.4) vs. St. Anthony (SS D-10, 6.4)

D-5A

North: Arcata (NCS D-6, 9.6) vs. Winters (NS D-4, 9.0)

South: El Capitan (SDS D-IV, 3.6) vs. El Rancho (SS D-11, 0.0)

D-6AA

North: Lassen (NS D-3, 7.1) vs. Sacred Heart Prep (CCS D-IV, 6.2)

South: Palmdale (SS D-12, 0.0) vs. Palisades (LACS D-I, -3.9)

D-6A

North: Summerville (SJS D-7, 5.0) vs. Moreau Catholic (NCS D-7, 3.5)

South: Morro Bay (CS D-V, -4.1) vs. Gahr (SS D-13, -12.6)

D-7AA

North: Leland (CCS D-V, -5.7) vs. Lincoln (SFS, -15.3)

South: Bonita Vista (SDS D-V, -15.1) vs. Chatsworth (LACS D-II, -24.5)

D-7A

North: Lindsay (CS D-VI, -17.4) vs. Maxwell (NS D-5, -22.7)

South: Pioneer (SS D-14, -28.0) vs. Van Nuys (LACS D-III, -35.2)

 

[Cal 14]

North:

1. Pittsburg vs. Central - Since Central's season is over, their rating will probably not move much. Pittsburg, on the other hand, has an opportunity to boost theirs with a win over highly-rated San Ramon Valley. My guess this, in conjunction with the notion that the Pirates' losses were "better", may put them in D-1AA over the Grizzlies (even though both of their losses were avenged in the playoffs).

2. Rocklin vs. St. Ignatius - In a similar manner, we have a Rocklin, whose rating could get a boost with a win over Grant. In this case, though, I don't see the voters matching up the Wildcats with Saint Francis for a third time this season.

3. Saint Francis vs. Twelve Bridges - While this is also a place where ratings change could raise an eyebrow, it appears that the Lancers would be the one getting the boost, as they play Los Gatos this week. But again, the voters will not likely want Saint Francis to play another CCS team in Wilcox in D-2A.

South:

1. What to do with Narbonne? - It's hoped that the voters don't look at the division and history when placing the Gauchos. Nothing about their season suggests they are any better than a mid-20s rated team. Yes, they lost many opportunities to fine tune their number when their entire league forfeited against them, but even in the playoffs, they aren't suggesting much different than their pre-league results. It wouldn't be a travesty for them to be placed in D-3AA, since that and D-3A are relatively interchangeable for the southern teams.

2. In multiple southern divisions, the top three seeds have been eliminated: 4 in the SS, 2 in the SDS, and 1 in the LACS. In SS D-11, the 16 seed has made it all the way to the finals where they will face the 6 seed.

3. Higher seed = home field advantage? Not in the SS! - SS D-1 is going to be played at a neutral site, but the remaining 13 divisions' finals are to be hosted by one of the two teams. In 7 of those, the lower seed is the host. In the above example for D-11, the 16 seed has the home field advantage. The reason? In only the first round does the higher seed automatically get home field. The remaining games are decided by a coin toss.

Overall:

1. The divisions had a lot of movement this week, particularly in the south where there were a number of upsets.

2. Much like last year, the north has the ratings advantage in most of the divisions. It was obvious that the best option would have been to place Clovis North in the south last year, but it's less so this season. If Central were to go to the south, either Frontier or Bakersfield Christian would have to go to the north. However, I don't think that would really fix the disparity much.

 

[PALFan]

I still don't get placing Folsom that high, that loss to Serra was bad. SI played a tougher schedule and beat the team that beat Folsom (Serra), avenged an earlier loss to a team that beat Serra (SF) and lost to a team that has a high rating (SRV) as well as beating a highly rated team (Cathedral Catholic). Folsom didn't play anyone with as high of a rating as SRV or Cathedral Catholic. Strength of schedule should matter, as well as bad losses.

 

[Sacchiefs]

Lots of upsets have shaken up the list this week. Several top seeds lost, while others have secured their spots. I'm guessing that one division is now locked in place.

Italics = Officially Advancing


Open Division (Section Division, Calpreps ratings)

North: De La Salle (NCS Open, 67.1) vs. South: Mater Dei (SS D-I, 102.7)

D-1AA

North: Folsom (SJS D-1, 6.16) vs. Pittsburg (NCS D-1, 53.2)

South: Murrieta Valley (SS D-2, 63.4) vs. Lincoln (SDS Open, 63.0)

D-1A

North: Central (CS D-IAA, 54.9) vs. St. Ignatius (CCS Open, 47.7)

South: Simi Valley (SS D-3, 50.5) vs. San Marcos (SDS D-I, 43.9)

D-2AA

North: Rocklin (SJS D-2, 47.6) vs. St. Francis (CCS D-I, 40.2)

South: St. Bonaventure (SS D-4, 42.5) vs. Frontier (CS D-IA, 31.7)

D-2A

North: Twelve Bridges (SJS D-4, 39.8) vs. Wilcox (CCS D-II, 31.7)

South: Palos Verdes Estates (SS D-5, 32.2) vs. Bakersfield Christian (CS D-II, 31.0)

D-3AA

North: Bradshaw Christian (SJS D-6, 29.3) vs. Amador Valley (NCS D-2, 27.2)

South: Murrieta Mesa (SS D-6, 27.9) vs. Mater Dei Catholic (SDS D-II, 27.4)

D-3A

North: Oakdale (SJS D-3, 27.8) vs. McClymonds (OS, 12.6)

South: Narbonne (LACS Open, 25.1) vs. Warren (SS D-7, 24.0)

D-4AA

North: Pleasant Valley (NS D-2, 25.3) vs. Acalanes (NCS D-3, 18.2)

South: Highland (SS D-9, 18.2) vs. Shafter (CS D-IV, 17.3)

D-4A

North: Hughson (SJS D-5, 20.8) vs. St. Vincent de Paul (NCS D-5, 16.3)

South: Serrano (SS D-8, 16.2) vs. Madera (CS D-II, 13.6)

D-5AA

North: Carmel (CCS D-III, 16.1) vs. American Canyon (NCS D-4, 12.1)

South: San Pasqual (SDS D-III, 8.4) vs. St. Anthony (SS D-10, 6.4)

D-5A

North: Arcata (NCS D-6, 9.6) vs. Winters (NS D-4, 9.0)

South: El Capitan (SDS D-IV, 3.6) vs. El Rancho (SS D-11, 0.0)

D-6AA

North: Lassen (NS D-3, 7.1) vs. Sacred Heart Prep (CCS D-IV, 6.2)

South: Palmdale (SS D-12, 0.0) vs. Palisades (LACS D-I, -3.9)

D-6A

North: Summerville (SJS D-7, 5.0) vs. Moreau Catholic (NCS D-7, 3.5)

South: Morro Bay (CS D-V, -4.1) vs. Gahr (SS D-13, -12.6)

D-7AA

North: Leland (CCS D-V, -5.7) vs. Lincoln (SFS, -15.3)

South: Bonita Vista (SDS D-V, -15.1) vs. Chatsworth (LACS D-II, -24.5)

D-7A

North: Lindsay (CS D-VI, -17.4) vs. Maxwell (NS D-5, -22.7)

South: Pioneer (SS D-14, -28.0) vs. Van Nuys (LACS D-III, -35.2)

Appreciate the hard work brotha.. looks good minus Rocklin instead of Grant

Question for you Cal..

in the past the Sac Joaquin Section has pit its champs against each other. In 2014 the D2 champ Grant played against Folsom the D1 champ. Last year, the D3 champ Grant played against Rocklin the D2 champ. There maybe additional examples.

Do you see this happening again. Why does this happen in the first place. Do other sections do this. I'm just curious and you seem to have a really good understanding of the CIF. Ty

 

[NCS707]

Hopefully they go Oakdale vs Pleasant Valley
And McClymonds vs Alaclanes.

Pleasant Valley always seems to get places really low and McClymonds does seem a bit down this year compared to the last 10-15.

 

[Cal 14]

I still don't get placing Folsom that high, that loss to Serra was bad. SI played a tougher schedule and beat the team that beat Folsom (Serra), avenged an earlier loss to a team that beat Serra (SF) and lost to a team that has a high rating (SRV) as well as beating a highly rated team (Cathedral Catholic). Folsom didn't play anyone with as high of a rating as SRV or Cathedral Catholic. Strength of schedule should matter, as well as bad losses.

I agree that the common opponent criterion could be applied here. I also think that this might be fighting an uphill battle since both Calpreps and Cal-Hi will have Folsom higher, with sizeable gaps (especially with Calpreps).

But then who do you move up? Central just knocked off an undefeated Clovis East team, who is higher than Cathedral Catholic on both systems. I think it would have been easier to drop the Bulldogs had CE won the CS D-IAA title.

Now, Folsom's rating/ranking advantage may be too much to overcome vs the other D-1 options. If they blow out Oak Ridge, then the gap may only widen. A close game could reduce the gap, but I don't know by how much.

 

[Cal 14]

Appreciate the hard work brotha.. looks good minus Rocklin instead of Grant

Question for you Cal..

in the past the Sac Joaquin Section has pit its champs against each other. In 2014 the D2 champ Grant played against Folsom the D1 champ. Last year, the D3 champ Grant played against Rocklin the D2 champ. There maybe additional examples.

Do you see this happening again. Why does this happen in the first place. Do other sections do this. I'm just curious and you seem to have a really good understanding of the CIF. Ty

Grant absolutely could take down Rocklin. They did a great job against St. Mary's last week.

In 2014, there were far fewer options in terms of number of divisions.

Last year, I think you were probably going to get stuck with an all-SJS division either way. You could have had Rocklin face either Folsom in D-1A or Grant in D-2AA. As it turned out, in either case, the Thunder probably wasn't going to advance to the finals.

I think where the teams are now, it would be easier to separate all of the sections without any glaring issues. I would guess that all of the sections might see that as ideal.

The placement of McClymonds remains a mystery as I think Calpreps had them erroneously rated to start the year. That could impact the placement of Hughson for either D-4AA or D-4A.

 

[Cal 14]

Hopefully they go Oakdale vs Pleasant Valley
And McClymonds vs Alaclanes.

Pleasant Valley always seems to get places really low and McClymonds does seem a bit down this year compared to the last 10-15.

For McClymonds, it really depends on how much the voters weigh in history... and Cal-Hi (who weighs history quite a bit). There is the notion that they're much better than their Calpreps rating because they played Riordan closely... but that was way back in the beginning of the season. Both they and Narbonne in the south are the hardest to place.

For me, I can see Mac being placed anywhere between D-3A and D-4A. I don't think they'd drop lower than that, despite their rating.

Pleasant Valley vs. Oakdale would also potentially be a good game.

Not that PV was placed in D-5AA last year and got blown out in the finals.

 

[Jfoyosoul]

The Folsom loss to Serra was bad but I also heard they were missing key starters and transfers. Sometimes weird games happen. St Mary’s nearly beat DLS who crushed Grant who beat SM. In fact, every year DLS and Folsom have close calls to teams they shouldn’t. I personally think Folsom would be a better matchup with MD just because of Ryder Lyons, their WRs and their transfers, but unless Folsom goes out and crushes OR like 70 to 7 and Pitt loses to SRV by a lot (which diminishes DLS win over Pitt) and then the committee decides on “who is a better matchup” for SS winner than it will be DLS in Open, which unfortunately for Folsom, makes sense…i hope they look at bringing back NorCal open, especially now that DLS isn’t invincible

 

[THEOC89]

The Folsom loss to Serra was bad but I also heard they were missing key starters and transfers. Sometimes weird games happen. St Mary’s nearly beat DLS who crushed Grant who beat SM. In fact, every year DLS and Folsom have close calls to teams they shouldn’t. I personally think Folsom would be a better matchup with MD just because of Ryder Lyons, their WRs and their transfers, but unless Folsom goes out and crushes OR like 70 to 7 and Pitt loses to SRV by a lot (which diminishes DLS win over Pitt) and then the committee decides on “who is a better matchup” for SS winner than it will be DLS in Open, which unfortunately for Folsom, makes sense…i hope they look at bringing back NorCal open, especially now that DLS isn’t invincible

There is no excuse for Folsom losing to Serra, even missing the transfers who had to sit out, Folsom was 10 Times more talented then this years 5 or 6 loss Serra team…. Folsom got out played and Badly out coached by Serra….

The Open Ship has Sailed for Folsom, they have Zero chance, no matter how many points they put up on over matched Oak Ridge…..

The issue for Folsom is the Common opponent they have with DLS…. Folsom lost to that Opponent (Serra) and DLS Boatraced them….

And it doesn’t matter whatsoever what happens with PITT vs SRV because DLS beat Both of those teams, including a 42-14 thrashing or SRV…. So either way DLS benefits from having a win over the NCS D1 Champ…. Folsom needed PITT to beat DLS to have any kind of chance…

DLS is undefeated and the NCS open Champ, they played a better schedule then Folsom and have better wins then Folsom, Case closed….

Folsom needs to schedule better, Scheduling a down LBP team this year was a disaster…. LBP dropped all the way down to SSD4 this year and didn’t even make it past the second round…. 🤣

Looking forward to PITT vs Folsom in D1AA, that will be an incredible matchup assuming PITT can get by SRV, which I think they will….

 

[NCS707]

Opening up the can of worms…
I know Monterey Trail/Rocklin/Oak Ridge can occasionally knock off Folsom but will there be competition next season? They are running through SJS like a hot knife on butter. Is Grant maxed out where they are? St Mary’s? Since the 2010 Folsom team got ran over by Grant week 1 and got revenge in the section championship the challenges have been few and far between

 

[THEOC89]

Opening up the can of worms…
I know Monterey Trail/Rocklin/Oak Ridge can occasionally knock off Folsom but will there be competition next season? They are running through SJS like a hot knife on butter. Is Grant maxed out where they are? St Mary’s? Since the 2010 Folsom team got ran over by Grant week 1 and got revenge in the section championship the challenges have been few and far between

No, No one will beat Folsom next year and with the way the SJS playoffs are set up neither Grant or ST Mary’s would have a shot at Folsom in the Playoffs because they are both in D2…..

Oak Ridge is the only team that would have a chance….

 

[Jfoyosoul]

There is no excuse for Folsom losing to Serra, even missing the transfers who had to sit out, Folsom was 10 Times more talented then this years 5 or 6 loss Serra team…. Folsom got out played and Badly out coached by Serra….

The Open Ship has Sailed for Folsom, they have Zero chance, no matter how many points they put up on over matched Oak Ridge…..

The issue for Folsom is the Common opponent they have with DLS…. Folsom lost to that Opponent (Serra) and DLS Boatraced them….

And it doesn’t matter whatsoever what happens with PITT vs SRV because DLS beat Both of those teams, including a 42-14 thrashing or SRV…. So either way DLS benefits from having a win over the NCS D1 Champ…. Folsom needed PITT to beat DLS to have any kind of chance…

DLS is undefeated and the NCS open Champ, they played a better schedule then Folsom and have better wins then Folsom, Case closed….

Folsom needs to schedule better, Scheduling a down LBP team this year was a disaster…. LBP dropped all the way down to SSD4 this year and didn’t even make it past the second round…. 🤣

Looking forward to PITT vs Folsom in D1AA, that will be an incredible matchup assuming PITT can get by SRV, which I think they will….

You are right that Folsom blew it and they had no excuses to lose to a Serra team, absolutely no excuses! DLS deserves the Open. Now, my point about having weird games is still valid, but Folsom should have still beaten them and if they can start scheduling better teams as they did with Centennial next year, they would be more prepared to not lose these games they should win that are outside SFL. As a Folsom fan, they have no more excuses not to schedule up!

It will be interesting to see how the team stacks up next year if Ryder Lyons returns

 

[THEOC89]

You are right that Folsom blew it and they had no excuses to lose to a Serra team, absolutely no excuses! DLS deserves the Open. Now, my point about having weird games is still valid, but Folsom should have still beaten them and if they can start scheduling better teams as they did with Centennial next year, they would be more prepared to not lose these games they should win that are outside SFL. As a Folsom fan, they have no more excuses not to schedule up!

It will be interesting to see how the team stacks up next year if Ryder Lyons returns

Totally Agree!…. There are always games that are crazy during the season…. You never know what will happen with 15-18 year olds playing football….

I don’t think that anyone disagrees that Folsom, PITT and DLS are the 3 best teams in Nor Cal Based on what we have all watched…. That’s why the potential matchup of Folsom vs PITT I D1AA is so amazing!!… We all just want to see the best teams play each other….

I really Hope that Folsom vs Cen10 is real…. Neither school has officially confirmed so skeptical until it happens…. If Cen10 comes to Nor Cal and Plays Folsom, I will be there, that will be a tremendous atmosphere!!…

Folsom needs to schedule Big next year…. DLS is back in a Big way, and will be playing a big time team next year along with top nor Cal teams….

 

[larry legend33]

Totally Agree!…. There are always games that are crazy during the season…. You never know what will happen with 15-18 year olds playing football….

I don’t think that anyone disagrees that Folsom, PITT and DLS are the 3 best teams in Nor Cal Based on what we have all watched…. That’s why the potential matchup of Folsom vs PITT I D1AA is so amazing!!… We all just want to see the best teams play each other….

I really Hope that Folsom vs Cen10 is real…. Neither school has officially confirmed so skeptical until it happens…. If Cen10 comes to Nor Cal and Plays Folsom, I will be there, that will be a tremendous atmosphere!!…

Folsom needs to schedule Big next year…. DLS is back in a Big way, and will be playing a big time team next year along with top nor Cal teams….

Folsom vs PItt will be great. I was at that Serra game and they were just flat and also give credit to Serra because they are traditionally a tough matchup for Folsom due to there physical play. But when a guy like Josiah Sharma doesn't play that is a huge difference. Here is a kid that looks SEC ready now. I'm not a huge Folsom supporter but I think they are the best team right now in Norcal. Just my opinion and any thoughts of them going open sailed long ago after that loss to SERRA. In fact I was basically saying there season is a disappointment really.

 

[Cal 14]

Opening up the can of worms…
I know Monterey Trail/Rocklin/Oak Ridge can occasionally knock off Folsom but will there be competition next season? They are running through SJS like a hot knife on butter. Is Grant maxed out where they are? St Mary’s? Since the 2010 Folsom team got ran over by Grant week 1 and got revenge in the section championship the challenges have been few and far between

For many years, the SJS had the worst playoff system in the state. After they got rid of the automatic placements, it was one of the best... for a short while.

Now, it's heading back to being one of the worst.

Say what you want about how the CCS and NCS get a second top team in the NorCal regionals, effectively, the SJS does the same thing by keeping those teams out of D-1.