- Which would mean nothing until Jan. 1, football and volleyball (plus others) in January and February, and presumably baseball and softball would extend into June, even after school is out.
Latest rumor: Basketball in March and April
- Thread starter ClayK
- Start date
That has been my recent question too Clay.
Is it just about pushing it further down the road with the hope it may look better 4 months later?
Is it just about pushing it further down the road with the hope it may look better 4 months later?
Let's say there is an effective and available vaccine on Jan 1. Would there be a requirement that students receive the vaccine before they can participate in sports? What about a requirement before they can attend school?
Hopefully there will be a vaccine ... but then the question will be who gets it first. My guess is that seniors -- the ones most likely to put a strain on the health-care system -- will be first in line. Students and teens would be fairly low, I'd think.
Still, I think teachers (and maybe coaches) will have some priority ...
Still, I think teachers (and maybe coaches) will have some priority ...
So with ten kids on a team on average if they all take the vaccine only 5 are actually protected WTF
They said this 50% effective rate is the same effective rate as the seasonal flu vaccine. Problem is COVID-19 is way more contagious and deadly than the seasonal flu... we should Only be accepting a 70-80% effective vaccine
At 50%... a coin flip... many people will not even take it
At 50%... a coin flip... many people will not even take it
If all the pro sports start on time and and have success....if the high school fall sports start on time and have success then Bball and soccer needs to start on time. we have from now until November. The hope and prayer is we have a plan in place. Even If it means no fans
I just can't see fall sports starting on time ... it's going to be hard enough to start school itself on time.
But let's do some math here: So let's say 80% of the population will get COVID. A 50% vaccine cuts that to 40%. Let's say the hospitalization rate is 20% ... now we're down to 8% (and this over the whole span of the virus, and I think 20% is very high). If the hospitalization rate is 10%, we're at 4% of the population. If the death rate is 5% (also high, I think), we're at 2%, which is not that much more than the flu.
But bump the success rate on the vaccine to 60%. Now the death rate is 1.5%.
So if the death rate is 5% now, and will be 1.5% after you get the vaccine, that means your chances of dying have decreased by 70%.
70%.
Would that convince you to get a vaccine?
But let's do some math here: So let's say 80% of the population will get COVID. A 50% vaccine cuts that to 40%. Let's say the hospitalization rate is 20% ... now we're down to 8% (and this over the whole span of the virus, and I think 20% is very high). If the hospitalization rate is 10%, we're at 4% of the population. If the death rate is 5% (also high, I think), we're at 2%, which is not that much more than the flu.
But bump the success rate on the vaccine to 60%. Now the death rate is 1.5%.
So if the death rate is 5% now, and will be 1.5% after you get the vaccine, that means your chances of dying have decreased by 70%.
70%.
Would that convince you to get a vaccine?
The middle of your math proved my point...
You said if we increase the effective rate to 60%.... that is the key to the whole thing...
The FDA needs to demand a higher effective rate
You said if we increase the effective rate to 60%.... that is the key to the whole thing...
The FDA needs to demand a higher effective rate
Im not an anti vaxer at all but I won't get the Vaccine and neither will 40ish % of the country. I don't get how a vaccine is the trigger to starting back up. There will be cases of covid popping up for the next 3 to 10 years. Its a virus it's not going to go away with or without a vaccine
Again, math. 80% is a generous estimate of all who will get it. A 50% effective vaccine cuts that to 40%. That's, oh, 100 million people or so ...
Let's 70% will eventually get it, and it's at 55%: 38.5%.
Hospitalization rate 10%: 3.85% wind up in hospital.
Death rate 3%: 1.7%.
If 100 million fewer people get the virus, and the death rate is cut by 50%, wouldn't you call that a success?
Let's 70% will eventually get it, and it's at 55%: 38.5%.
Hospitalization rate 10%: 3.85% wind up in hospital.
Death rate 3%: 1.7%.
If 100 million fewer people get the virus, and the death rate is cut by 50%, wouldn't you call that a success?
They are saying the vaccine will only be 50% effective because of the amount of the population that is refusing to take a vaccine based on polling numbers. They are not saying 50% effective based on the efficacy of the vaccine itself. You have to factor in the amount of people that will not take a vaccine into the equation. If all kids that play sports get vaccinated they will be fine.
Clay the death rate is only part of the story...
If you survive the virus....
see this
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/01/health/coronavirus-recovery-survivors.html
If you survive the virus....
see this
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/01/health/coronavirus-recovery-survivors.html
I just read 50% is the bare minimum required by the FDA which is comparable to th flu as someone mentioned in this thread. It doesn't mean the vaccine for COVID-19 will only be 50% effective. There are only few labs going into the final phase/phase3 testing so it's way to soon to have any data to know what the efficacy will be of this Vaccine. But with modern technology I suspect we should hit 60-75% which would be fantastic. Phase 3 require 30k participants and Oxford is starting a phase 3 early July. We should start getting data soon.
https://www.fiercepharma.com/vaccines/fda-to-require-at-least-50-efficacy-for-covid-19-vaccines-wsj
https://www.fiercepharma.com/vaccines/fda-to-require-at-least-50-efficacy-for-covid-19-vaccines-wsj
Stephan Hahn FDA chief is another idiot
https://www.mediaite.com/tv/trump-f...s-about-injecting-disinfectants-all-the-time/
https://www.mediaite.com/tv/trump-f...s-about-injecting-disinfectants-all-the-time/
Vaccines aren't going to be here in time for any high school basketball, even if the season is delayed. Development, production, and distribution will send us, at a minimum, into mid-2021. I'd like to be more optimistic, but the way we have bungled testing and PPE in this country does not bode well.
And vaccines, regardless of their effective rate, are only part of the equation. The real number to focus on is the RO (basic reproduction number) which is the average number of people an infected person re-infects. If we can get the RO below 1.0 using masks, social distancing, shelter in place, hand washing, and (eventually) vaccines, the virus will at some point die out. (Unless of course we relax protective measures too soon which it looks like a lot of people are already doing).
Youth sports including basketball are going to pump the RO no matter what protocols are in place. Will people abide by new protocols? Will they be able to afford to do so? Imagine a gate keeping station at every gym taking temperatures and excluding non-approved personnel. Extensive cleaning procedures multiple times per day. Who is going to pay for this? How will game day revenues be replaced?
And when everything is in place, then comes the day when a member of the team tests positive. So the other players and coaches go into a two week quarantine, forfeiting all their scheduled games.
Not happening folks.
I agree no way to do this safely until mid 2021..assuming the country, states, counties, cities and school districts have stable and intelligent leadership
I think CIF, and a lot of other state associations, will delay the start of sports to see what happens to teachers and administrators when schools are opened. By saying Jan. 1, CIF has time to see what's going on in schools, and then can cancel/delay further if the situation warrants.
I also expect a vaccine sooner than later -- Trump will be pushing as hard as he can, because if there is one before Election Day, his chances of re-election go up significantly -- and my guess would be it would be allocated to old folks like me, health workers and school personnel first.
I also expect a vaccine sooner than later -- Trump will be pushing as hard as he can, because if there is one before Election Day, his chances of re-election go up significantly -- and my guess would be it would be allocated to old folks like me, health workers and school personnel first.
With modern technology, I suspect 2-5 Vaccine makers will be ready for market from anywhere between Nov-Jan. The technology is too great now not the be. So far no mutations in the virus have rendered the vaccines unsuccessful and as long as that stays true I believe vaccinations will start sooner than most suspect. By the time this is all said and done we will have over 50-100 vaccines but no matter how fast they come it cant be soon enough.
There are seven strains of coronavirus in humans, none of which have an approved vaccine. SARS has been around since 2002. MERS has been around since 2012. I think there's a greater likelihood that we'll never have a working vaccine for COVID-19 that that we'll have one by November. Sure hope I am wrong.
Haha personalogic watches way too much CNN.
Have you guys looked up how many Covid deaths in California under the age of 18?
ZERO or 0 for those you who prefer numerals.
Have you guys looked up how many Covid deaths in California under the age of 18?
ZERO or 0 for those you who prefer numerals.
Doesn't matter. Clay is a coach and his age group is my age group and we are worried. Plus these high school girls have parents and grand parents. The hospital rate is much higher. I personally wouldn't want to go there even if I recovered. My son just got over the virus in Chicago. Was sick for two weeks and it was not pleasant.
Students aren't going to die from this, most likely -- but if schools reopen, the odds are one or two or a few will. At that point, the narrative will shift a little ...
And as to the other attempts at vaccines, no previous situation can be compared to this one. The profit and the political will have never been so actively involved, and so invested, as before. The impact of SARS and MERS on the world do not compare to the impact of COVID-19.
And as to the other attempts at vaccines, no previous situation can be compared to this one. The profit and the political will have never been so actively involved, and so invested, as before. The impact of SARS and MERS on the world do not compare to the impact of COVID-19.
If you read the medical data it supports what I am saying. YES there are multiple mutations BUT none of the mutations have cause any issues in the labs of the current vaccines in progress. We have to be more educated and actually read the medical and scientific data to avoid panic. I'm actually putting my money on Antibody therapy as opposed to a vaccine because I believe it will be much faster. The technology is far greater now. Educate yourselves so you aren't misinformed. I'm not saying sports will start on time but mitigation and/or prevention are coming.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/06/health/regeneron-coronavirus-antibody-drug-bn/index.html
https://www.foxnews.com/science/regeneron-phase-iii-antibody-testing-coronavirus-surge
https://www.biospace.com/article/re...evention-trial-with-double-antibody-cocktail/
https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/06/health/regeneron-coronavirus-antibody-drug-bn/index.html
https://www.foxnews.com/science/regeneron-phase-iii-antibody-testing-coronavirus-surge
https://www.biospace.com/article/re...evention-trial-with-double-antibody-cocktail/
1. no way a vaccine is available this year. doesn't matter what trump wants.
2. they kick the can down the road because they can, and it doesn't hurt to say, let's reassess in 3 months. beats the alternative: let's cancel it now. because THAT will go over well.
but who knows what we know in 3 months. In 3 months, we could be in crisis. we could be declining in numbers. maybe new guidance will allow for contact sports. We don't know.
3. a vaccine that is 50% effective is better than no vaccine, which is 0% effective. A less than perfect vaccine, that is safe, is a stepping stone towards herd immunity, and a stepping stone towards a better vaccine. If Fauci recommends the vaccine, sign me up. That means they did their due diligence from a science standpoint that the vaccine is safe. But that due diligence is why we won't see one this year.
4. clay finally said it: when a kid dies, then what? oh... it's only .00001% of kids... i'm already prepared for the goalpost moving.
2. they kick the can down the road because they can, and it doesn't hurt to say, let's reassess in 3 months. beats the alternative: let's cancel it now. because THAT will go over well.
but who knows what we know in 3 months. In 3 months, we could be in crisis. we could be declining in numbers. maybe new guidance will allow for contact sports. We don't know.
3. a vaccine that is 50% effective is better than no vaccine, which is 0% effective. A less than perfect vaccine, that is safe, is a stepping stone towards herd immunity, and a stepping stone towards a better vaccine. If Fauci recommends the vaccine, sign me up. That means they did their due diligence from a science standpoint that the vaccine is safe. But that due diligence is why we won't see one this year.
4. clay finally said it: when a kid dies, then what? oh... it's only .00001% of kids... i'm already prepared for the goalpost moving.
for the record, my opinion:
i'm not feeling fall football. I don't see it happening. best case scenario: no team sports in the fall.. but we'll see tennis, golf, maybe cross country if they only do dual/tri meets and they can have a socially distant starting line. and on July 20, they'll say, no fall team sports, no winter team activities other then conditioning, and we'll see where we are on Sept 30. (they will be allowed to have socially distanced workouts)
that's what my crystal ball says.
i'm not feeling fall football. I don't see it happening. best case scenario: no team sports in the fall.. but we'll see tennis, golf, maybe cross country if they only do dual/tri meets and they can have a socially distant starting line. and on July 20, they'll say, no fall team sports, no winter team activities other then conditioning, and we'll see where we are on Sept 30. (they will be allowed to have socially distanced workouts)
that's what my crystal ball says.
COVID task force Dr Birx was just asked what the data on kids positivity rate, transmission rate between each other, transmission rate back to parents and grandparents....what I heard her say is we haven’t collected enough data yet on those subjects but schools need to open???? That is an insane way to protect kids
No we can protect kids but before you start that you have to have the data...you don’t blindly proceed without knowing especially when kids are involved.... you were a manager... have you ever done that Challenger Space Launch exercise that killed
The astronauts....it is about making decisions without data
The astronauts....it is about making decisions without data
When you have some time read this
https://www.history.com/news/how-the-challenger-disaster-changed-nasa
https://www.history.com/news/how-the-challenger-disaster-changed-nasa
