NCS OPEN, D1, D2

[northbaybbguru]

Ok...going STRAIGHT BY MaxPreps and NOT taking into account H2H or common opponents. Also taking into account teams can only move up 2 levels max (unless OPEN)...

OPEN:
1. Acalanes....locked into the 1 unless theres a major upset.

2. SRV
3. CLET
Another matchup looms between these 2 hated rivals in their league playoffs championship. SRV won the 1st matchup and I honestly feel the winner of the NEXT matchup will get the 2 seed.

4. CN ..comfortably in 4 spot.

5. Piedmont
6. BOD
BOD won the 1st matchup and # 2 is tomorrow 2/5. Again i feel the winner of tomorrow's game will be the 5 seed.

* now here's the interesting situation...if BOD loses 2/5 then Eureka may take that 6th open spot. Eureka is currently #7 in the section and ONLY 1 SPOT BEHIND BOD in the state rankings so in other words RIGHT ON THEIR HEELS READY TO PASS.

*Eureka has no business being in the NCS Open but as we saw with San Marin in football the seeding committee doesn't care.

D1.
1. Eureka
2. CVC
3. Calif
4. Redwood
5. Arcata
6. Dublin
7. San Marin
8. Northgate
9. Miramonte
10. Alameda
11. American
12. Freedom
13. Maria Carrillo
14. Washington
15. Montgomery
16. Alhambra

D2
1. Justin Siena
2. Salesian
3. University
4. Marin Catholic
5. McKinleyville
6. Moreau Catholic
7. Lick Wilmerding
8. Pinole Valley
9. Ukiah
10. Heritage
11. Campo
12. Mt Diablo
13. SM B
14. American Canyon
15. Del Norte
16. Healdsburg

 

[northbaybbguru]

Arcata has already beaten Eureka earlier this year and they play again @Arcata the last game of the season so any OPEN speculation for Eureka could end with an Arcata win that game.

And if that's the case then that drops Eureka down behind Arcata in the D1 seedings (with 2 losses h2h)

 

[ClayK]

Carondelet and Cal High will play twice before the possible Carondelet-SRV matchup (once to end the regular season Friday, and then in the EBAL playoffs). Cal High is a good team, well-coached and #9 overall.

 

[northbaybbguru]

Carondelet and Cal High will play twice before the possible Carondelet-SRV matchup (once to end the regular season Friday, and then in the EBAL playoffs). Cal High is a good team, well-coached and #9 overall.

SRV beat Cal Hi by 40. I looked at Cal hi and agree that they are "the best of the rest" but not on the same level as CLET/OPEN. A Cal Hi win over CLET would be a huge upset and may even open up the door for CN to pass CLET in the NCS rankings and get the 3 seed. I just don't see the upset happening TBH.

 

[Coach Cardinal]

Ok...going STRAIGHT BY MaxPreps and NOT taking into account H2H or common opponents. Also taking into account teams can only move up 2 levels max (unless OPEN)...

OPEN:
1. Acalanes....locked into the 1 unless theres a major upset.

2. SRV
3. CLET
Another matchup looms between these 2 hated rivals in their league playoffs championship. SRV won the 1st matchup and I honestly feel the winner of the NEXT matchup will get the 2 seed.

4. CN ..comfortably in 4 spot.

5. Piedmont
6. BOD
BOD won the 1st matchup and # 2 is tomorrow 2/5. Again i feel the winner of tomorrow's game will be the 5 seed.

* now here's the interesting situation...if BOD loses 2/5 then Eureka may take that 6th open spot. Eureka is currently #7 in the section and ONLY 1 SPOT BEHIND BOD in the state rankings so in other words RIGHT ON THEIR HEELS READY TO PASS.

*Eureka has no business being in the NCS Open but as we saw with San Marin in football the seeding committee doesn't care.

D1.
1. Eureka
2. CVC
3. Calif
4. Redwood
5. Arcata
6. Dublin
7. San Marin
8. Northgate
9. Miramonte
10. Alamo
11. American
12. Freedom
13. Maria Carrillo
14. Washington
15. Montgomery
16. Alhambra

D2
1. Justin Siena
2. Salesian
3. University
4. Marin Catholic
5. McKinleyville
6. Moreau Catholic
7. Lick Wilmerding
8. Pinole Valley
9. Ukiah
10. Heritage
11. Campo
12. Mt Diablo
13. SM B
14. American Canyon
15. Del Norte
16. Healdsburg

Does H2H or common opponents make any difference?

 

[Coach Cardinal]

Ok...going STRAIGHT BY MaxPreps and NOT taking into account H2H or common opponents. Also taking into account teams can only move up 2 levels max (unless OPEN)...

OPEN:
1. Acalanes....locked into the 1 unless theres a major upset.

2. SRV
3. CLET
Another matchup looms between these 2 hated rivals in their league playoffs championship. SRV won the 1st matchup and I honestly feel the winner of the NEXT matchup will get the 2 seed.

4. CN ..comfortably in 4 spot.

5. Piedmont
6. BOD
BOD won the 1st matchup and # 2 is tomorrow 2/5. Again i feel the winner of tomorrow's game will be the 5 seed.

* now here's the interesting situation...if BOD loses 2/5 then Eureka may take that 6th open spot. Eureka is currently #7 in the section and ONLY 1 SPOT BEHIND BOD in the state rankings so in other words RIGHT ON THEIR HEELS READY TO PASS.

*Eureka has no business being in the NCS Open but as we saw with San Marin in football the seeding committee doesn't care.

D1.
1. Eureka
2. CVC
3. Calif
4. Redwood
5. Arcata
6. Dublin
7. San Marin
8. Northgate
9. Miramonte
10. Alamo
11. American
12. Freedom
13. Maria Carrillo
14. Washington
15. Montgomery
16. Alhambra

D2
1. Justin Siena
2. Salesian
3. University
4. Marin Catholic
5. McKinleyville
6. Moreau Catholic
7. Lick Wilmerding
8. Pinole Valley
9. Ukiah
10. Heritage
11. Campo
12. Mt Diablo
13. SM B
14. American Canyon
15. Del Norte
16. Healdsburg

Is #10 Alameda?

 

[northbaybbguru]

Does H2H or common opponents make any difference?

I can only go by what happened in football.

MP was the deciding factor for the divisions. Once placed in Division h2h came into play to make some adjustments to the order of seedings.

 

[ClayK]

As far as anyone can tell, the MaxPreps algorithm does not take into account head-to-head results.

Other questions about the algorithm:

1) Does it factor in margin of victory? If so, how? Does it cut off the advantage at 20 points? 40? Is it a sliding scale?

2) How important are wins in and of themselves? In other words, is 20 wins against a really weak schedule the same as 15 against a good one?

3) Are there any adjustments for home, road and neutral sites?

4) Is there any recency bias?

5) Does strength of schedule take into account the strength of schedule of a team's opponents?

 

[bb-hoops]

I understand the current system as good as possible and agree with the comments and questions above.

How ridiculous is it to not simplify the process?

1) Use MP to simply start the process and adjust from there based on the following:
2) Strength of schedule (doesn't lie).
3) H2H (where it makes sense).
4) Rank 1 through 102 teams, Open - top 6, Divisions 1 - 6 brackets will break at 16 teams each.

MaxPreps should never be the deciding factor, just the starting point.

Just rank teams by their body of work, easy.

The system will never be perfect, so quit trying!

 

[ClayK]

Apparently that's what they do ... sort of. They use MP to set the brackets, and then after that, they take into account H2H, etc.

Strength of schedule is in the algorithm. Sometimes beating a weak team actually lowers your rating.

I originally went with the 1-102 idea but the reality is that then the small schools get hurt. Not only do they not get in, potentially, but they can wind up playing a really bad D1 team with 2000 more students and experience playing good teams. So I think the rule limiting movement to two divisions is a good one.

 

[bb-hoops]

Currently there are 141 NCS schools, 102 teams qualify (72%) for NCS playoffs. Simply math, 39 teams do not make the playoffs. How much more fair can that be? And if that still leaves concerns for the smaller schools, separate D5 & 6 into its own playoff (NCS Small School Playoffs). If a D5 or 6 schools want to play up they petition up.

We need to quit making excuses for all the bumps that get in the way and use that time and thinking on solving the concerns.

Look at some point, a system needs to be built that's transparent and as fair as possible.

 

[northbaybbguru]

No transparency on what algorithm is used for the MP rankings. MP won't share it which is absolutely ridiculous.

If i was coaching I'd like to know the formula so I could at least attempt to set my schedule accordingly.

Again...RIDICULOUS that MP won't share the algorithm/formula....

If I was a conspiracy guy I might have some thoughts on that..🤷

 

[ClayK]

The algorithm is proprietary. CIF tried to leverage the situation by hiring SBLive instead of MP but they couldn't come up with a formula that worked. So CIF went crawling back ...

It's tricky, really, because MP has invested time and money in its algorithm and gets clicks with its rankings. If MP gave out the code, anyone could publish it and MP loses income.