NCS SEEDING
- Thread starter CamAca
- Start date
The Division III seeding is the most interesting ... presumably O'Dowd is No. 1, though Salesian has a win over the Dragons. But the No. 2 seed will host the No. 3 seed in the semis, and that could be the difference in, say, a Campo-Salesian game.
Carondelet looks like the clear top seed in DI, and unless Acalanes upsets Miramonte Tuesday (and the Dons won the second half in the first go-round), Miramonte should still be the top seed in D2.
Carondelet looks like the clear top seed in DI, and unless Acalanes upsets Miramonte Tuesday (and the Dons won the second half in the first go-round), Miramonte should still be the top seed in D2.
I'll take a crack at D3....
1..BOD....top 20 nationally by max preps
2..CAMPO.... BIG Salesian & MM wins puts them here
3...SALESIAN ...H2H Campo loss means they are #3
4....SM Berkeley...nice close to their season finishing strong. Committee likes that.
now it gets dicey.
5...San Marin...tied 1st in MCAL....best SOS/ left on qualifiers
6...????..... hard to say because the next few gaudy record teams have an EXTREMELY weak SOS
Alhambra? 20-2...but a NEGATIVE SOS
Sonoma? 18-5 but a 0.2 SOS
anybody else have any ideas?
1..BOD....top 20 nationally by max preps
2..CAMPO.... BIG Salesian & MM wins puts them here
3...SALESIAN ...H2H Campo loss means they are #3
4....SM Berkeley...nice close to their season finishing strong. Committee likes that.
now it gets dicey.
5...San Marin...tied 1st in MCAL....best SOS/ left on qualifiers
6...????..... hard to say because the next few gaudy record teams have an EXTREMELY weak SOS
Alhambra? 20-2...but a NEGATIVE SOS
Sonoma? 18-5 but a 0.2 SOS
anybody else have any ideas?
So I looked at D2, and first, there are probably only 13 or 14 teams that will play ... which means the top two or three seeds will get byes.
I think Montgomery is the clear No. 2 to Miramonte, but then there are lots of choices. Acalanes and Tamalpais should be 3 and 4, but it's unclear in which order -- but that really doesn't make much difference, as 3 and 4 both travel in the semis. And both 3 and 4 move on to NorCals, and if Miramonte goes Open, so does 5.
Ukiah, El Cerrito, Alameda, Redwood and Livermore are all in the next tier of teams, and it's hard to tease out what order they should be in. The committee is either going to have to dig very deep into common opponents and strength of schedule, or just sort of give up and slot them by throwing darts at a wall -- I don't think either method will produce anything really definitive unless I missed something.
In short: Miramonte and Montgomery are seeded 1-2, Acalanes and Tamalpais look to be 3-4 and NorCal-bound, with Concord and Ukiah on the cusp. The only travel issue would be driving to Ukiah, and of course league champs get first-round hosting ... though as far as I can tell, no D2 team will be a regular season league champ (Miramonte loses because the DAL breaks the tie by the team that wins the second game betting the tiebreaker). I think the North Bay leagues have playoffs, though, and the playoff champ would get a first-round bye.
I think Montgomery is the clear No. 2 to Miramonte, but then there are lots of choices. Acalanes and Tamalpais should be 3 and 4, but it's unclear in which order -- but that really doesn't make much difference, as 3 and 4 both travel in the semis. And both 3 and 4 move on to NorCals, and if Miramonte goes Open, so does 5.
Ukiah, El Cerrito, Alameda, Redwood and Livermore are all in the next tier of teams, and it's hard to tease out what order they should be in. The committee is either going to have to dig very deep into common opponents and strength of schedule, or just sort of give up and slot them by throwing darts at a wall -- I don't think either method will produce anything really definitive unless I missed something.
In short: Miramonte and Montgomery are seeded 1-2, Acalanes and Tamalpais look to be 3-4 and NorCal-bound, with Concord and Ukiah on the cusp. The only travel issue would be driving to Ukiah, and of course league champs get first-round hosting ... though as far as I can tell, no D2 team will be a regular season league champ (Miramonte loses because the DAL breaks the tie by the team that wins the second game betting the tiebreaker). I think the North Bay leagues have playoffs, though, and the playoff champ would get a first-round bye.
So in order for the 5th seed to go to norcal if MM goes open they need to win their first game in NCS correct?
Correct. They would be the highest seed that made it the furthest, so it is a big deal to get the #5 seed as opposed to the #6 seed.
Its interesting how Montgomery is the clear number 2 in your opinion and Tamalpais the number 3 or 4 when Prep2Prep has Acalanes ranked at 9 for NCS and Concord at 19th with Montgomery all the way down to 24th and Tamalpais not even a consideration in the NCS rankings. Why such the discrepancy?
I was just going off the computer rankings as a rough guide ... I do think Concord is pretty good -- we've played Montgomery and Acalanes, and I would give the nod to Acalanes. But will the NCS committee look at the eight losses and bump the Dons down? It would make sense on several levels, as Acalanes beat Santa Rosa and Santa Rosa is 1-2 vs. Montgomery.
I think Acalanes is hurt by the overall weakness in the Diablo Athletic League, which drags down its strength of schedule. They could easily be No. 2 as I look at it more closely.
I think Acalanes is hurt by the overall weakness in the Diablo Athletic League, which drags down its strength of schedule. They could easily be No. 2 as I look at it more closely.
Acalanes would beat every one of those teams you have ahead of them from 2 down by 15 except Monty. They should win that one as well but it would be closer. Mm will beat all of them by 25-50
1. Miramonte-clear favorite
2. Montgomery-21 wins but poor strength of schedule
3. Concord-ony 22 games under their belt but looking at their schedule, better than most on here.
4. Acalanes-good strength of schedule a lot of weapons
5. Tamalpias-20 wins but played nobody
6. Alameda-Brutal schedule but has a few quality wins
7. Redwood-Loss to ESCP and Montgomery, not great strength of schedule
8. Livermore-Plays in the EBAL beat some solid (not great) D1 teams. tough strenth of schedule.
2. Montgomery-21 wins but poor strength of schedule
3. Concord-ony 22 games under their belt but looking at their schedule, better than most on here.
4. Acalanes-good strength of schedule a lot of weapons
5. Tamalpias-20 wins but played nobody
6. Alameda-Brutal schedule but has a few quality wins
7. Redwood-Loss to ESCP and Montgomery, not great strength of schedule
8. Livermore-Plays in the EBAL beat some solid (not great) D1 teams. tough strenth of schedule.
Concord is too high. They lost to Capital Christian by 11 and Acalanes beat Capital Christian by 14 next night. No matter... D2 will be pretty uneventful but D3 should be very interesting as any of 3 teams could legitimately win it. I think O'Dowd or Campo on top
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