(Had to break up the post.)
Mission North-
Like the Gabilan this division should be close. Scott’s valley was the easy favorite this year but have already lost their returning QB1 for the year. This will open the door for MVC, Alisal and Seaside to challenge the Falcons. North County was surprise (at least to me) last year as they did much better than expected, lets hope they can build off that. Watsonville and St. Francis seem to have opposite problems. St. Francis has small numbers but some good playmakers, while Watsonville has big numbers, but lack playmakers .
Mission South-
Carmel is the favorite here, and quite frankly I don’t know if they will be challenged in any league game. 2nd place and a guaranteed playoff spot will be a battle as I believe there are 5 teams that could finish 2nd. A lot of these teams will have smaller numbers so health will be a factor and will probably go a long way in deciding who finishes 2nd.
The purpose of the Santa Lucia is to evenly match programs that are struggling or that just can’t seem to get off the ground. Last year every team won at least 1 game last year, that is a good thang as it gives these programs something to build on. In 2018 Soquel was in the Santa Lucia division, 6 years latter they are now one of the top PCAL programs. Not saying Marina and Harbor are moving to the Gabilan next year, but this division at least gives them some equal footing. This year it looks like a 2-team race between Gonzales and the 2022 champions RLS.
Mission North-
Like the Gabilan this division should be close. Scott’s valley was the easy favorite this year but have already lost their returning QB1 for the year. This will open the door for MVC, Alisal and Seaside to challenge the Falcons. North County was surprise (at least to me) last year as they did much better than expected, lets hope they can build off that. Watsonville and St. Francis seem to have opposite problems. St. Francis has small numbers but some good playmakers, while Watsonville has big numbers, but lack playmakers .
- Scott’s Valley- They return their RB1 and have depth on the O line. As with any SV team coached by Louie Walter, their defense will be good. But I read they already lost their QB1 to injury (off-season?). They will be young behind center but should be ok with their ground control offense and solid defense.
- Monte Vista Christian (MVC)- They return 1 of the top WR QB duos in the CCS. This team will put the ball in the air and score points. The question is depth, they will challenge anybody with their starting 11, but my understanding is the numbers on varsity are small. If they still healthy, they will challenge for the title.
- Alisal- This program has probably had it most consistent stretch of football ever. That may change as their long-time coach stepped away this year. I hope that it does not, but sometimes these programs (non-football schools) need consistency and it is hard to replace a successful coach. They will still run the same ground and pound ball control veer option. I am looking forward to the Scott’s Valley game. I could see each team getting 2 total possessions for the whole game.
- Seaside- The open district policy that helps Monterey, hurts Seaside, as they do lose some key players to their crosstown rival. Coach Avila does a great job with this program that is usually light on numbers but big on playmakers. Look for that trend to continue. Do not be surprised if Seaside is challenging again for the division title.
- North Monterey County- Last year the Condors surprised me. I thought they should have been move down to the Santa Lucia. But the remained competitive in the Mission North. They need to be consistent and disciplined for all 4 Qtrs. There is enough talent coming back to make the playoffs.
- St. Francis - There are about 250 student at St. Francis. It is one of the smallest 11 man football programs in the CCS. Yet they have made the playoffs and almost won a DV title 3 years ago. This year’s team will be competitive, I just don’t know if they can beet the teams above them.
- Watsonville. – I have to pick somebody last here, so Watsonville gets it. They have good numbers, but for some reason they just seem so inconstant from year to year. They did manage to “upset” NMC last year. So hopefully they can build off of that.
Mission South-
Carmel is the favorite here, and quite frankly I don’t know if they will be challenged in any league game. 2nd place and a guaranteed playoff spot will be a battle as I believe there are 5 teams that could finish 2nd. A lot of these teams will have smaller numbers so health will be a factor and will probably go a long way in deciding who finishes 2nd.
- Carmel- They return almost all their playmakers. They have to fill RB1 and some OL spots. QB1 is in his third year running the system and they will score points. Carmel’s philosophy is to outscore you, so Defense is not a priority, but they return 2 all-leaguers in the secondary and don’t be surprised if the #1 OL goes both ways in big games. I will give Carmel some credit for scheduling a competitive non-league schedule. But they should roll through the Mission South.
- North Salinas- They lost a lot to graduation last year, but still have enough talent and depth coming back that they will make a strong case for 2nd place. The program seem to have turned a corner and is starting to play consistent football every year, as opposed to 1 year on 1 year off.
- Soledad- The Aztecs have also been inconsistent over the past few years, but in theory after a 1-9 (on the field) year last year, they are due this year. They have a good core coming back, and I believe they may be deeper than the teams picked behind them.
- Pacific Grove- No I am not picking them last. I still will not root them. Truth is they have a numbers problem. About 10 years ago Carmel and PG had close to the same number of students 750-800. PG now sits at 550 while Carmel is still around 800. The good news for PG is they have maybe the best RB1 returning. They can be competitive if they stay healthy.
- Greenfield- I believe this team can finish as high as 2nd in this division, the numbers for this program keep increasing. They are coming off a Santa Lucia Championship and have been bumped up. They lost some very good playmakers from last year, so the Bruins will need to fill that void if they want to stay competitive.
- King City- Like Greenfield, King City will be competitive, however, this is a young team. If all things stay equal, I think KC will compete for the title in 2025. They have some really good underclassmen coming up through the program.
- Rancho San Juan- After almost making the playoffs 2 years ago they came down to earth this past season. I like the energy coming from the school and it’s head coach, it will take a little more time but this relatively new (5 years of varsity) program is still trending up. They could finish as high as 4th.
The purpose of the Santa Lucia is to evenly match programs that are struggling or that just can’t seem to get off the ground. Last year every team won at least 1 game last year, that is a good thang as it gives these programs something to build on. In 2018 Soquel was in the Santa Lucia division, 6 years latter they are now one of the top PCAL programs. Not saying Marina and Harbor are moving to the Gabilan next year, but this division at least gives them some equal footing. This year it looks like a 2-team race between Gonzales and the 2022 champions RLS.
- RLS – Probably the last year for this team in the Santa Lucia. They have 2 3osses in the division over the past 3 years. The program is seeing some decent numbers (for RLS), if they run the table this year, they will be destined for the Mission. They return some strength up front, but they need to replace a lot of skill positions. Fortunately, it looks like they have some kid ready to fill in. Still wish they would schedule 10 games like a freaking normal school.
- Gonzales- October 4th, RLS will becoming to the Salinas Valley to play Gonzales. The good news is that it is Friday night game that will probably decide the division. Bad news is the game is at Soledad 8.5 miles down the 101, as Gonzales is re-doing its stadium this year. The Spartans will “host” 3 teams at Soledad this year, the rest of the games will be on the road. I still see them as the 2nd best team in the division. And RLS has not won at Soledad in while.
- SLV – The Cougars have some good size and depth returning this year along the lines, they also return their QB1. They will have to replace some other key playmakers. SLV finished on a high note, but they did have head scratching loss to Pajaro last year. If they stay consistent they might be able to challenge Gonzales and RLS for league supremacy.
- Harbor- I am always rooting for back in the 80’s and 90’s they produced some decent teams. The past 20+ years, not so much. I would like to see them become the next “Soquel” of the Santa Lucia. I think they may be a little better this year, but it will take a while before they reach the Gabilan.
- Marina- I have said it before, Marina hurt itself 15 years ago when it when to 11 man football to early. The good news is more kids are staying in marina to play than leaving to Seaside or Monterey. There also getting their own football field (way overdue). Maybe this will start to change the ways at this struggling program.
- Pajaro Valley- I don’t know if the Pajaro valley District is open and all good football players end up at Aptos. But both PV and Watsonville struggle to put out consistent programs. It would be great to see this program thrive, but it needs consistency, and it has never had it.
- Santa Cruz- Three years ago this team was in the Gabilan, last year it did no score a point going 0-6 (on the field) 0-10 (with cancelations and forfeits) in the Mission North. It is a rebuilding project, and with its top players ending up at Soquel, it may take a few years. But this year it should be better being in the Santa Lucia.
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