When you look to make a mutual fund investment you will always find a statement like this in the fine print:
"Past performance is no guarantee of future results".
Equity league decisions should be made based on a discussion of both past results and also future projections. Just because Carmel has been good for the past 10 years is not a reason to force them up. Look at PG's record over the same period...on top of the MTAL for years and then down in the dumps.
Carmel loses virtually all their defense to graduation. Admittedly the offense should be good. But can they score 56 points every game and hope to hold their opponents to 55?
More importantly, the pipeline coming up is nearly empty. Their JV team fielded just 26 players (17 of them freshmen) and was 3 and 7...forfeiting the Salinas game over concerns about player safety.
And it is doubtful the pipeline will get better. 22 freshmen in 2017...17 this past season. Which makes me ask. How many Gabilan schools had just 17 freshmen suit up this year? For that matter, how many area programs in all the Divisions had just 17 freshmen come out to play football?
Plus the Carmel Youth Football program was shuttered this year because not enough kids signed up. So that early pipeline no longer exists.
And put yourself in a parent's position and suppose you are even the slightest bit concerned about concussions. What do you say to your son when you see the Padres will be playing Palma, Aptos, Salinas, San Benito and other large schools? Maybe most varsity parents will say ok, but the concern has to be about the incoming freshmen. Every school knows there is a substantial drop-off in participation between playing as freshmen and remaining on the team for four years. Not so much of a problem for large enrollment schools or football factory private schools, but you only have to look one town over to PG to see a proud school with a winning tradition that petitioned to be in the C league this year so they could try to get back on their feet.
Hate to sound like the sky is falling but this could be an SMU death penalty like decision. Just because a large number of administrators are tired of seeing Carmel be successful. And a number of Gabilan coaches are too lazy to have to find another non-league opponent to play against.