SJS Div 1 Match-ups with Playoff Implications

[MTsince2004]

Barring an upset, there doesn't seem to be too many significant match-ups this week in D1. Oak Ridge vs Del Oro and Davis vs Pleasant Grove will have an effect on seedings, for sure. Jesuit and Franklin will be trying to get back into the playoff hunt against league leaders Elk Grove and Cosumnes Oaks. Enochs needs to knock off Downey to even think about having a chance at the playoffs.

Thoughts? (Projections are from CalPreps.com)

Inderkum at River Valley [projection: Inderkum 50-6]

Downey vs. Enochs [projection: Downey 41-26]
Pitman at Gregori [projection: Gregori 28-14]
Modesto at Turlock [projection: Turlock (CA) 44-0]

Franklin at Cosumnes Oaks [projection: Cosumnes Oaks 42-7]
Pleasant Grove at Davis [projection: Davis 44-21]
Elk Grove at Jesuit [projection: Elk Grove 44-19]

Laguna Creek vs. McClatchy [projection: Laguna Creek 28-3]
Monterey Trail at Kennedy [projection: Monterey Trail 62-0]
Burbank at River City [projection: River City 34-28]

Edison at Bear Creek [projection: Edison 52-6]
Chavez at McNair [projection: McNair 34-20]
Stagg at Franklin [projection: Stagg 35-0]

Folsom at Whitney [projection: Folsom 44-17]
Del Oro at Oak Ridge [projection: Oak Ridge 42-21]
Grant at Rocklin [projection: Rocklin (CA) 38-14]

Tracy at Lincoln (Stockton, CA), [projection: Lincoln 42-19]
Lodi at St. Mary's [projection: St. Mary's 48-17]
West at Tokay [projection: West 35-31]

 

[s2h17]

The Delta is going to be a hell of a race as is the SFL. Too bad MT got re-aligned out of the Delta....Could you imagine EG MT CO Juesit Davis battling this year?

 

[zebs]

Elk Grove is very good football team. They beat us up, and they were the better football team when we played week 0. I haven't seen any of the other Delta teams play except for a few clips on the news. Some of our coaches went to the CO vs Jesuit game. The Delta is a tough league.

 

[bulldogmgc]

Calpreps projects (on a neutral field) ...

[2019] St. Mary's (Stockton, CA) 35, [2019] Lincoln (Stockton, CA) 34

Note: this year’s Stockton rivalry game is @ Lincoln (Stockton, CA). Edge may turn to the Trojans, especially with opportunity to put an end to the 15-game losing streak.

Other interesting “potential” Stockton, CA, playoff match-ups (between SJAA 1st seed vs TCAL 2nd seed) ...

[2019] Lincoln (Stockton, CA) 31, [2019] Edison (Stockton, CA) 28

[2019] St. Mary's (Stockton, CA) 36, [2019] Edison (Stockton, CA) 35

Note: Likewise, Edison would be host vs TCAL #2 seed should SJS pit these teams against eachother, and home field advantage may or may not have impact to projected scores.

 

[MTsince2004]

Calpreps projects (on a neutral field) ...

[2019] St. Mary's (Stockton, CA) 35, [2019] Lincoln (Stockton, CA) 34

Note: this year’s Stockton rivalry game is @ Lincoln (Stockton, CA). Edge may turn to the Trojans, especially with opportunity to put an end to the 15-game losing streak.

Other interesting “potential” Stockton, CA, playoff match-ups (between SJAA 1st seed vs TCAL 2nd seed) ...

[2019] Lincoln (Stockton, CA) 31, [2019] Edison (Stockton, CA) 28

[2019] St. Mary's (Stockton, CA) 36, [2019] Edison (Stockton, CA) 35

Note: Likewise, Edison would be host vs TCAL #2 seed should SJS pit these teams against eachother, and home field advantage may or may not have impact to projected scores.

Do you have a link to the seeding criteria for the SJS? I know the playoff format site talks about CalPreps ratings being used to qualify the at-large bids, but I didn't see a breakdown of the seeding process. The old system used to favor league champs, but even that was tweaked quite a bit towards the end.

Looking at last year's brackets for D 1-3, it looks like they pretty much just used the Calpreps ratings to seed the tournament except to avoid first round games with same-league opponents. This wasn't 100% the case, but league champs didn't seem too get much of a bump.

 

[bulldogmgc]

Do you have a link to the seeding criteria for the SJS? I know the playoff format site talks about CalPreps ratings being used to qualify the at-large bids, but I didn't see a breakdown of the seeding process. The old system used to favor league champs, but even that was tweaked quite a bit towards the end.

Looking at last year's brackets for D 1-3, it looks like they pretty much just used the Calpreps ratings to seed the tournament except to avoid first round games with same-league opponents. This wasn't 100% the case, but league champs didn't seem too get much of a bump.

There isn’t any playoff seeding criteria, other than the seeding will be decided by the committee. When I was referencing seeding for TCAL and SJAA league I probably should have used 1st and 2nd place instead of 1st seed and 2nd seed. At one time (prior to 2018) the Delta and SFL leagues had 3 automatic qualifiers and TCAL and SJAA each had 2 automatic qualifiers. But, effective 2018, each league only has 1 automatic qualifier (league champion) and other teams from each league would qualify as at-large bid teams based on calpreps rankings (total 12 teams for div 1 when used to be 16 teams). I only expect Edison to qualify (automatic entry) from SJAA. I expect both St. Mary’s and Lincoln-Stockton to qualify from TCAL (one as automatic entry and the other as at-large bid). SJAA is now considered a D2 league, but Edison’s enrollment will place them in D1. TCAL is D1 league. TCAL runner-up as at-large team will be D1, as well, Lincoln-Stockton because of enrollment and St. Mary’s because of continued success. Although there isn’t any official seeding, SJS in past would look at mileage traveled as a contributing factor to determine seeding for first round matchups. Hence, there is some potential that Edison could play the TCAL 2nd place team in the first round, since neither is expected to earn a bye in the first round. The following article from MaxPreps provides an early insight to probable teams per division for the playoffs (but no seeding):

https://www.maxpreps.com/m/news/tmF...s---oct-8.htm?amp=1&__twitter_impression=true

Also, many of us bloggers have tried to predict seedings in the past and outside the top 1-4 teams, most of the time we would be quite surprised with the seedings of the other teams. Some of us gave up trying to guess, like myself, because we would be way off.

I recall league champs would automatically host in the first round despite a possible lower seeding than at-large team they would be facing. But, I do not see that clause anymore.

League Alignment: https://d2o2figo6ddd0g.cloudfront.net/3/8/98ge8uqawgs06f/18-22_SJS_Leagues.pdf

SJS Constitution and Bylaws: https://d2o2figo6ddd0g.cloudfront.net/t/u/1s6w8sdw8zyyjn/2019.pdf (refer to page 117 for Football playoffs)

Or SJS Football Format (excerpt from the SJS Constitution and Bylaws): https://d2o2figo6ddd0g.cloudfront.net/j/z/e4t475daow99si/footballformat_19.pdf

Football Enrollment: https://d2o2figo6ddd0g.cloudfront.net/q/a/owrvqehr1kyxsb/fb_divisions_1920.pdf

Hope this helpful.

 

[bulldogmgc]

Per brackets, for example for D1, http://cifsjs.org/sports/fball/2019-20info/footballd1bracket_19.pdf, host team will be highest seeded team (footnote).

 

[MTsince2004]

@bulldogmgc, thank you. Your post confirms much of what I thought and added a few new insights. Much appreciated.

 

[MTsince2004]

Well, upsets do happen. The slate of games played out more or less how CalPreps called it except for the Franklin over CO shocker. Was CO looking ahead to their bye week and then match ups against Elk Grove and Davis? Who knows? Kids are kids and upsets happen. With Elk Grove at a desperate do-or-die Jesuit still to be played today, there is potentially more drama left in the Delta. CO still plays Elk Grove and Davis, so all three teams are still trying to separate themselves from the pack. Only Elk Grove controls their fate for an outright title.

The TCAL looks like it will come down to St. Mary's vs Lincoln on the last night.

Folsom still owns the SFL with Oak Ridge playing hard to get that 2nd or 3rd seed in the playoffs.

MT, Inderkum, Edison, and Turlock are all on course in their leagues. Any upsets would be huge at this point. But the chance of an upset is why the games are played.

 

[John Mellencamp]

Jesuit up 38-35 with 2 minutes to go...

 

[MTsince2004]

Well, with the Jesuit upset of Elk Grove, the Delta is still W I D E open. Four teams have only one loss in league, and no one is undefeated. Every team is still in the hunt for a playoff spot. It will all go down to the wire.