SJS Playoff Brackets
- Thread starter Streak One
- Start date
Folsom will boat race Downey. No...it won't be close. No...Downey does not have a shot. With any other team in SJS D1, I would say that Downey (at the minimum) has a puncher's chance, if not a dominating win ahead of them. Downey is a good football team. With that said, if Downey can keep the game within three TD's, that should be considered a "win" for Downey.
Also:
Fri 11/15 Folsom (CA) vs Downey (Modesto, CA), 7:00pm
I Playoffs
projection and percent chances to win: Folsom (CA) 62 (>99%) Downey (Modesto, CA) 17 (<1%)
The way the SJS does continued success, there will always be a weak Div 1. No team above D1 can move down into the bracket when lower divisions get bumped up like in the lower divisions. The lower divisions will have teams being bumped down as well as teams getting bumped up due to continued success.
Calpreps is sometimes a little misleading to look at when you just examine the section ratings. You also have to look at the projection ratings, and take into account whether it's for playoffs or for the regular season. Unfortunately, all of that requires you to visit a different page and either input teams or search a large list. To sum up, Oak Ridge is not the 7th team in the SJS. They are either evenly matched or favored to beat everyone above them except Folsom.
It's complicated, and I'm not sure I fully understand it well enough to explain it further.
If you input teams into this link (project a match-up), you will get an example of what I'm talking about:
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I think you are saying that if you are a large school, you are locked into D1, even if you suck year after year; because of enrollment. So that dilutes the D1 pool. is that right?
cuz actually, the way they set it up this year, you can't play 2 above your league division. so all of the sjaa (D3 league) large schools were locked into D2. You have Central Valley HS, a D1 size, in a D4 league, locked into D3.
so, in another small nod to competitive equity, when they realigned this year, competitive equity was a factor... at least to try to get historically noncompetitive athletic schools into similar lower division leagues.
but you are right, your league division is the first criteria.. so large schools in D1 or D2 leagues can't go lower than D1. So a school like Davis at the 3rd biggest school, in a D1 league, and a crappy football team, is stuck.
as i study it more, looking at the enrollment page:
the entirety of D2 is comprised of small D1 league schools and large D3 league schools.
laguna creek is the smallest D1 school (except for Central Catholic) at 2030. there are 10 D2 schools bigger than LC. Vacaville is the first D2 enrollment school at 2020, Grant is next at 2017, but locked into D2 presumably cuz of the D3 blowback last year... they are technically a bubble school... D2/3 enrollment in a D3 league. then the rest of the division are all the smaller D1 league schools, except for Manteca.. arguably D3 enrollment, but locked into D2.
So the way I see it, the entire division was locked in due to division, except for Vacaville, Grant (bubble) and Manteca (continued success?.. not sure why they are in D2)
leagues
enrollments
the entirety of D2 is comprised of small D1 league schools and large D3 league schools.
laguna creek is the smallest D1 school (except for Central Catholic) at 2030. there are 10 D2 schools bigger than LC. Vacaville is the first D2 enrollment school at 2020, Grant is next at 2017, but locked into D2 presumably cuz of the D3 blowback last year... they are technically a bubble school... D2/3 enrollment in a D3 league. then the rest of the division are all the smaller D1 league schools, except for Manteca.. arguably D3 enrollment, but locked into D2.
So the way I see it, the entire division was locked in due to division, except for Vacaville, Grant (bubble) and Manteca (continued success?.. not sure why they are in D2)
leagues
enrollments
Manteca went to D2 on continued success.
You are onto something with the shuffling between D1 and D2. A lot of those D1 schools that are now the bigger D2 schools got shuffled lower because they were taking up too much space in D1 while D2 was so loaded that teams of better quality were simply not making the playoffs. Laguna Creek specifically complained about this. For a couple years they were beating D1 schools like McClatchy during the regular season in the Metro league, but were getting locked out of the playoffs in D2 while McClatchy made it in D1. Cosumnes Oaks got stuck like that as well at some point, but I don't remember the specifics.
