I put this on Facebook in a burst of caffeinated frenzy ...
OK, let’s do the math on helping from the strongside corner.
First, the corner shooter: Assume the strongside corner shooter is actually pretty good, meaning she makes 30% of her threes. (I’m not talking about top-level AAU teams or elite/superior high school teams – this is real world basketball for the vast majority of girls’ coaches.)
Again, 30% is really good, but we’ll go with it. That means, on 100 shots, she generates 90 points.
She draws no fouls to speak of (maybe one or two out of 100 shots), and has no assists. She is not going to get any offensive rebounds.
Now, let’s switch to the driver, on her strong hand. And she’s one of the team’s best players (if she’s not, she shouldn’t be beating her man on a drive).
Out of 100 trips to the basket, with no help, I will generously say she makes 45% of her shot attempts – but of course she will be fouled numerous times out of 100 trips. Let’s say, again, that’s she fouled 15% of the time. We’ll also specify that she is called for charging 5% of the time.
So she takes 80 shots, making 45%, for 72 points. She takes 15 trips to the line for 30 free throws (we’re ignoring and-ones, again tilting the scales away from the advantages of help). We’ll say she makes 60%, for 18 points.
We are now even, 90 points each, with five turnovers for the driver, but 15 drawn fouls.
The driver also will also get a few assists to the weakside block, as the help must come from there and the weakside defender will be slow to rotate a few times. That’s six more points for the driver, up to 96.
The driver will also get some offensive rebounds on her misses. We’ll say three, and that she gets a total of two points from those three rebounds, though likely it would be more. Now we’re at 98.
Now let’s tack on those fouls, which do two things: They push the defender one foul closer to having to sit, and they also move the offensive team one step closer to the bonus/double bonus. I’m going to award two points for extra free throws thanks to the fouls (remember I didn’t include any and-ones). We’re at 100.
But there’s another factor as well: If there’s strongside help, the pass to the corner may be open, but the driver must make a good pass, and the corner shooter must catch the pass. There are a couple turnovers lurking here, as well as charges on the driver when she bangs into help. And if the pass isn’t a good one, the corner shooter’s percentages go down – so I’m going to subtract one made three (though that’s generous, again). The corner shooter is now down to 87 points.
The driver’s at 100.
And again, a very good player on her strong hand is going to make more than 45% of her shots. And many good players shoot better than 60% from the line. And there are and-ones.
Let’s say the driver makes 50% of her shots and shoots 67% from the line. Now the driver is generating 110 points. Let’s say the corner shooting makes 27% of her threes, which is still really good for a high school girl – she’s now generating 81 points.
So generously, it’s a plus-13 to help from the corner per 100 shots; more realistically, it’s plus-29.
OK, let’s do the math on helping from the strongside corner.
First, the corner shooter: Assume the strongside corner shooter is actually pretty good, meaning she makes 30% of her threes. (I’m not talking about top-level AAU teams or elite/superior high school teams – this is real world basketball for the vast majority of girls’ coaches.)
Again, 30% is really good, but we’ll go with it. That means, on 100 shots, she generates 90 points.
She draws no fouls to speak of (maybe one or two out of 100 shots), and has no assists. She is not going to get any offensive rebounds.
Now, let’s switch to the driver, on her strong hand. And she’s one of the team’s best players (if she’s not, she shouldn’t be beating her man on a drive).
Out of 100 trips to the basket, with no help, I will generously say she makes 45% of her shot attempts – but of course she will be fouled numerous times out of 100 trips. Let’s say, again, that’s she fouled 15% of the time. We’ll also specify that she is called for charging 5% of the time.
So she takes 80 shots, making 45%, for 72 points. She takes 15 trips to the line for 30 free throws (we’re ignoring and-ones, again tilting the scales away from the advantages of help). We’ll say she makes 60%, for 18 points.
We are now even, 90 points each, with five turnovers for the driver, but 15 drawn fouls.
The driver also will also get a few assists to the weakside block, as the help must come from there and the weakside defender will be slow to rotate a few times. That’s six more points for the driver, up to 96.
The driver will also get some offensive rebounds on her misses. We’ll say three, and that she gets a total of two points from those three rebounds, though likely it would be more. Now we’re at 98.
Now let’s tack on those fouls, which do two things: They push the defender one foul closer to having to sit, and they also move the offensive team one step closer to the bonus/double bonus. I’m going to award two points for extra free throws thanks to the fouls (remember I didn’t include any and-ones). We’re at 100.
But there’s another factor as well: If there’s strongside help, the pass to the corner may be open, but the driver must make a good pass, and the corner shooter must catch the pass. There are a couple turnovers lurking here, as well as charges on the driver when she bangs into help. And if the pass isn’t a good one, the corner shooter’s percentages go down – so I’m going to subtract one made three (though that’s generous, again). The corner shooter is now down to 87 points.
The driver’s at 100.
And again, a very good player on her strong hand is going to make more than 45% of her shots. And many good players shoot better than 60% from the line. And there are and-ones.
Let’s say the driver makes 50% of her shots and shoots 67% from the line. Now the driver is generating 110 points. Let’s say the corner shooting makes 27% of her threes, which is still really good for a high school girl – she’s now generating 81 points.
So generously, it’s a plus-13 to help from the corner per 100 shots; more realistically, it’s plus-29.