WCAL 2014 - Returning Impact Players for 2015

[colhenrylives]

Re: WCAL 2014 - CCS Open Semi's- Bells & VC in & Serra out

SHP will have to win the Los Gatos game in something of a shootout. It's doubtful they can stop the LG offense, especially its passing attack. But LG will have loads of trouble with the multi-faceted SHP offense which features a terrific QB, a fine wideout, a decent offensive line and, of course, Burr Kirven who is very fast for a big guy. It's going to be a game of matchups. The two teams are actually somewhat similar, although LG has a bigger roster. The coaching on both sides is very good. Special teams may favor LG. Depth too. But, as El Cerrito discovered to its horror in 2013, SHP is very capable of springing a surprise in a given ballgame. They utilize their roster well; the coaches put their kids in a position to compete and, often, win. This should be a close game. SHP's biggest problem will be that LG is so similar it might be able to beat SHP at its own disciplined style. It's going to be interesting.

 

[Rmbr26]

Re: WCAL 2014 - CCS Open Semi's- Bells & VC in & Serra out

Originally posted by colhenrylives:
SHP will have to win the Los Gatos game in something of a shootout. It's doubtful they can stop the LG offense, especially its passing attack. But LG will have loads of trouble with the multi-faceted SHP offense which features a terrific QB, a fine wideout, a decent offensive line and, of course, Burr Kirven who is very fast for a big guy. It's going to be a game of matchups. The two teams are actually somewhat similar, although LG has a bigger roster. The coaching on both sides is very good. Special teams may favor LG. Depth too. But, as El Cerrito discovered to its horror in 2013, SHP is very capable of springing a surprise in a given ballgame. They utilize their roster well; the coaches put their kids in a position to compete and, often, win. This should be a close game. SHP's biggest problem will be that LG is so similar it might be able to beat SHP at its own disciplined style. It's going to be interesting.

Good perspective colhenry on SHP & LG. I have not seen SHP play so will have to look at some of the film on maxpreps or higschoolcube to check out their QB a little more. It should be an interesting match-up to see how good SHP is against LG.
The RB match-up is a good one between Burr Kirven and Joey Wood with Wood being bigger but Burr Kirven being faster.
SHP's stats are impressive all the way around and slightly better than LG's, with a consideration of schedule to possibly account for the difference. The completion ratio is about even between the 2 QB's although SHP's Randall is shown to be slightly more efficient.
LG def will enjoy a size differential on the lines, but SHP's defense stats would not indicate that size has hurt them in any games to date. Again, an interesting match-up.

 

[Rmbr26]

Re: WCAL 2014 - CCS Open Semi's- Bells & VC in & Serra out

Note regarding the Serra vs Los Gatos game:


It did not appear that Serra RB Kava Cassidy was at 100% yesterday from the broken collarbone earlier in the season and was limping coming out of the game in the 3rd quarter. What's curious is Leki Nunn Serra's QB the first 4 games had his best game the 4th game of the season in the win over Valley Christian. Nunn played very well with his highest QB rating of the year and no turn-overs. The following game they switched to the new QB Hunter Bishop once eligible. That game former QB Nunn was moved to RB and ran wild in the SI game gaining 207 yards and 3 TD's. As Kava Cassidy recovered from his injury he was reinserted as the primary RB and Nunn has been used as a WR with limited success and getting a few carries at RB.. Serra started the season with a high turn-over ration per game and it has continued through the game with Los Gatos [4 turnovers - 3 INT's & a fumble lost].
The fact Serra lost its other big playmaker Kalepi Lataimua to injury 2 games ago also did not help the Padres.

The good news for Serra is that Hunter Bishop is a junior along with Kalepi Lataimua and Nunn is only a soph. So question for other fans: Nunn is one of the most talented athletes on the Serra team. For next year do you give Nunn another shot at QB or stick with him at the RB position along with Lataimua or possibly alternate 2 QB's such as Bellarmine this season? The Serra defense played well all season however coach Walsh and the offense staff def need to find a fix for the high ratio of turn-overs [16 in the first 3 games alone, 9 INT's & 7 fumbles].

 

[Rmbr26]

Re: WCAL 2014 -The relevance of the WCAL League Champp


Food for thought.

Serra and Valley Christian are WCAL CO-Champs sharing the title while Bellarmine comes in 2nd in league.
Serra has been eliminated from the Open in first round and now the Bells & VC play in the open semi-final.
SO should the Bells win the semi final it will not matter if they win the CCS Open Championship game or not,
as the Bells will be rated/ranked above Serra & VC in just about every final ranking poll there is. With 3-4 WCAL
teams in Open each year and with the parity in some years as with this season it seems the best team in WCAL
actually won't be determined until the CCS playoffs are completed. So just how relevant is a WCAL title in football?

 

[CCSman1]

Re: WCAL 2014 - CCS Open Predictions + Mitty, SF & SI

Rmbr26- I follow SHP and I would have them ranked as 3 for the remaining teams left in Open. I would say they are a very close 2 to LG and don't sleep on them because they can play. Don't think that because they are small and not as strong they cant play…they can and will show up like they do to every game. There coaches are the best you can have at a high school level and the kids are very trained (very few penalties) and conditioned. They understand football and out smart many teams. It should be very interesting to see Wood vs BBK… I am sure there will be some huge collision in this game. Personally I think Burr-Kirven is better because of his speed and he plays both ways. He is clocked at a 4.49 for 40…thats blazing speed for his size…I think he time has probably fallen to around a 4.6 just after watching him run in the past few games, but he has looked much better every game. I will keep saying it I'm going with the unpopular pick but I am going to stand by it SHP 28 LG 24.
1. VC
2. LG
3. SHP
4. Bell

 

[PAL95]

Re: WCAL 2014 - CCS Open Predictions + Mitty, SF & SI

If SHP even keeps this a touchdown game they will earn my respect. Lg 44 SHP 17

 

[serdaprs]

Re: WCAL 2014 -The relevance of the WCAL League Champp

and final rankings do what for you?

 

[Dooer]

Re: WCAL 2014 - CCS Open Predictions + Mitty, SF & SI

Well I hope Burr-Kirven is faster, he is listed 6'0" , 200#'s and Wood is something like 5'10" and 225#'s. Should be some good collisions.

No one is sleeping on SHP. LG surely won't.

 

[Rmbr26]

Re: WCAL 2014 -The relevance of the WCAL League Champp

Originally posted by serdaprs:
and final rankings do what for you?

As Bells or VC I would take the CCS Open Championship over the WCAL Co-title any day of the week, which is what this boils down to.

 

[Rmbr26]

Re: WCAL 2014 - CCS Open Predictions + Mitty, SF & SI

Originally posted by CCSman1:
Rmbr26- I follow SHP and I would have them ranked as 3 for the remaining teams left in Open. I would say they are a very close 2 to LG and don't sleep on them because they can play. Don't think that because they are small and not as strong they cant play…they can and will show up like they do to every game. There coaches are the best you can have at a high school level and the kids are very trained (very few penalties) and conditioned. They understand football and out smart many teams. It should be very interesting to see Wood vs BBK… I am sure there will be some huge collision in this game. Personally I think Burr-Kirven is better because of his speed and he plays both ways. He is clocked at a 4.49 for 40…thats blazing speed for his size…I think he time has probably fallen to around a 4.6 just after watching him run in the past few games, but he has looked much better every game. I will keep saying it I'm going with the unpopular pick but I am going to stand by it SHP 28 LG 24.
1. VC
2. LG
3. SHP
4. Bell

CCSman, if you read a lot of the posts its not that SHP is an unpopular team or that fans do not think they're good. I for one think they are a very good team, but that their season to present has not let them play a notable team with a winning record, which would exclude Burlingame as well. Most of the fans are indicating they "think" LG is going to win & some think by sevral scores. Its all conjecture until the game is played and SHP could prove the majority of fans including me wrong. Everyone for the most part including the computers was wrong on the Milpitas-Bells game along with the Serra-Los Gatos game. Common sense says if Bellarmine was able to beat heavily favored MIlpitas then possible SHP could also bear Los Gatos. BTW- just because some fans state they think LG will win does not mean they won;t be rooting for SHP, that's all.

 

[Rmbr26]

Re: WCAL 2014 - CCS Playoffs - Thanksgiving Week Games


This week's games;

Open Div:
Bells vs Valley Christian - Projection: Los Gatos 28-21 [+7 over SHP]
Los Gatos vs SHP - Projection: VC 27-21 [+6 over Bells]

Div II:
St. Francis vs Leland - Projection: SF 41-7 [ +24 over Leland]
Mitty vs Wilcox - Projection: Mitty 31-14 [+17 over Wilcox]

Div III:
St. Ignatius vs Pioneer: SI 35-20 [+15 over Pioneer]

Open Consolation:
Serra vs Palma - No Line*
Milpitas vs Oak Grove - No Line*

No projection & no predictions on consolation games as some players will be allowed [elect] to move on to basketball while JV players will get time on field to allow coaches some time to evaluate them for next year. IMO it is hard to get excited for any consolation game as the teams appearing may not resemble the same team during the regular season. The 2 Open games this week should both be good and the best of the bunch among the divisions.

 

[Defense rules]

Re: WCAL 2014 - CCS Playoffs - Thanksgiving Week Games

Originally posted by Rmbr26:

This week's games;

Open Div:
Bells vs Valley Christian - Projection: Los Gatos 28-21 [+7 over SHP]
Los Gatos vs SHP - Projection: VC 27-21 [+6 over Bells]

Div II:
St. Francis vs Leland - Projection: SF 41-7 [ +24 over Leland]
Mitty vs Wilcox - Projection: Mitty 31-14 [+17 over Wilcox]

Div III:
St. Ignatius vs Pioneer: SI 35-20 [+15 over Pioneer]

Open Consolation:
Serra vs Palma - No Line*
Milpitas vs Oak Grove - No Line*

No projection & no predictions on consolation games as some players will be allowed [elect] to move on to basketball while JV players will get time on field to allow coaches some time to evaluate them for next year. IMO it is hard to get excited for any consolation game as the teams appearing may not resemble the same team during the regular season. The 2 Open games this week should both be good and the best of the bunch among the divisions.

Projections look spot on except maybe the SI-Pioneer game. I would think SI would be favored by 21+

I do think LG will also win by at least two TD's, maybe more.

This post was edited on 11/26 10:23 AM by Defense rules

 

[dcpanda]

Re: WCAL 2014 - CCS Playoffs - Thanksgiving Week Games

I haven't posted in a while, as I've been busy with all sorts of stuff, but in response to the question about the relevance of the WCAL title, I would say it's always relevant. Serra finished 1st in a year many on this board picked them to finish 3rd or 4th. They've got back-to-back championships now, and in both years they beat the team that they tied for 1st with (Mitty last year and VC this year). I'm sure it's disappointing for them that they lost in the CCS Playoffs, but overall they had a very good year and were the best in the regular season. I guess it's subjective as to whether that is relevant, but I'd say it's pretty relevant to anyone involved with Serra or is an alum.

This post was edited on 11/26 12:07 PM by dcpanda

 

[HSS75]

Re: WCAL 2014 - CCS Playoffs - Thanksgiving Week Games

"I haven't posted in a while, as I've been busy with all sorts of stuff, but in response to the question about the relevance of the WCAL title, I would say it's always relevant."

I agree. If you ask any coach in ANY sport in WCAL what is their #1 goal for the year, they always say is to win League. Why? It's a very tough league. It's a huge accomplishment if you place 1st and it usually means your the top dog in CCS coming into the playoffs. There's is a possibility that the bells may win the Open but everyone will know they didn't win league.

 

[Dooer]

Re: WCAL 2014 - CCS Playoffs - Thanksgiving Week Games

Not to diminish the WCAL champion, but I think more people will remember the Open champion over the WCAL champion, other then the school that wins the league championship and falters in the playoffs.

 

[CityBaseballFan]

Re: WCAL 2014 - CCS Playoffs - Thanksgiving Week Games

Rmblr and Defense Rules,

I'm surprised to see that you are picking SI by such a large margin over Pioneer. If you looked only at the point differential on the VC game (Pioneer lost by 55 early in the season, SI lost by 2 late in the season) - I could understand it.

The more relevant comparison might be Terra Nova, where SI won by 3 and Pioneer won by 11 on back-to-back weekends early in the season. Because SI played at TN, while Pioneer played at home - the point differential is fairly even.

SI is a solid team, but continues to give up the big play (3 plays over 70 yards last week against Monterey) and I expect that will be the key to the game. If SI can eliminate or minimize the big plays to 1 or 2, their ball control offense and special teams advantages should allow them to win. All four of SI's non-WCAL wins were by 7 points or less.

What else are you seeing to predict a SI win by two or three touchdowns?


This post was edited on 11/26 1:45 PM by CityBaseballFan

This post was edited on 11/26 3:25 PM by CityBaseballFan

 

[Rmbr26]

Re: WCAL 2014 - CCS Playoffs - Thanksgiving Week Games

Originally posted by Dooer:
Not to diminish the WCAL champion, but I think more people will remember the Open champion over the WCAL champion, other then the school that wins the league championship and falters in the playoffs.

Everyone has points as to their opinion, but I do think its fair to say that the team that wins or makes it to the Open Division Championship has completed a more successful season that the WCAL league champ or co-league champ that got eliminated in the first round [ie: Bells upset Milpitas vs Serra being upset & shut-out by Los Gatos].
Why? Simply because the team that goes the furthest in the Open shows they could compete against the best teams in CCS outside the WCAL as well.

IMO I believe whomever wins the VC-Bells game is the true champ of the WCAL, especially if they win the Open Championship.

 

[Defense rules]

Re: WCAL 2014 - CCS Playoffs - Thanksgiving Week Games

Originally posted by CityBaseballFan:
Rmblr and Defense Rules,

I'm surprised to see that you are picking SI by such a large margin over Pioneer. If you looked only at the point differential on the VC game (Pioneer lost by 55 early in the season, SI lost by 2 late in the season) - I could understand it.

The more relevant comparison might be Terra Nova, where SI won by 3 and Pioneer won by 11 on back-to-back weekends early in the season. Because SI played at TN, while Pioneer played at home - the point differential is fairly even.

SI is a solid team, but continues to give up the big play (3 plays over 70 yards last weeks against Monterey) and I expect that will be the key to the game. If SI can eliminate or minimize the big plays to 1 or 2, their ball control offense and special teams advantages should allow them to win. All four of SI's non-WCAL wins were by 7 points or less.

What else are you seeing to predict a SI win by two or three touchdowns?



This post was edited on 11/26 1:41 PM by CityBaseballFan

Strength of Schedule. Look at their WCAL losses. By 3 to the Bells, by 3 to Mitty, by 2 to VC, 7 to SF and 12 to Serra. With a couple of breaks they could well be playing in the Open. Look at Pioneers wins. Have they beat anyone of note? There is nothing on their resume that leads me to believe that they can beat SI.

 

[Rmbr26]

Re: WCAL 2014 - CCS Playoffs - Thanksgiving Week Games

Re: Strength of Schedule: here are the top 10 rated teams in CCS along with their "SOS"

1. Valley Christian 9-2 SOS = 30.9
2. Los Gatos 9-2 SOS = 19.6
3. Bells 9-2 SOS = 30.8
4. Milpitas 10-1 SOS = 15.1
5. Mitty 7-4 SOS = 27.7
6. Serra 7-4 SOS = 37.0
7. Palma 9-2 SOS = 19.3
8. SHP 11-0 SOS = 12.4
9. St. Francis 7-4 SOS = 21.7
10. St. Ignatius 6-5 SOS = 31.3

Interesting as both SF & SI's SOS dropped after last week's games against Mt. Pleasant & Willow Glen and will likely drop further after this week's games against Leland & Wilcox which they are both [SF & Mitty] projected to win.

The team with the highest SOS was Serra which has been eliminated & SHP is currently the lowest of the surviving teams. Until Milpitas lost to Bells last week the only 2 undefeated teams Milpitas & SHP were also the 2 teams with the lowest SOS ratings.

 

[Dooer]

Re: WCAL 2014 - CCS Playoffs - Thanksgiving Week Games

So, what do the SOS numbers actually mean. I realize that a higher number in theory means a tougher schedule, but what does a 1 point difference make, a 10 point difference?

 

[CCS2004]

Re: WCAL 2014 - CCS Playoffs - Thanksgiving Week Games

Take SOS with a grain of salt. LG dominated a very good Serra team with a much better SOS last week.

This is high school football. These are literally children that you are watching. They have nerves, they fumble, they commit penalties, they shank punts, they can rarely hit medium ranged field goals consistently, they drop passes, etc., etc. Anything can happen. Rankings and SOS can be thrown out the window.

Really looking forward to LG vs. SHP. Should be a great game between two quality teams from two of the most overachieving programs in CCS. It will be interesting to see how the rain affects the game as it is supposed to be pretty wet on Saturday.

 

[Rmbr26]

Re: WCAL 2014 - CCS Playoffs - Thanksgiving Week Games

Originally posted by CCS2004:
Take SOS with a grain of salt. LG dominated a very good Serra team with a much better SOS last week.

This is high school football. These are literally children that you are watching. They have nerves, they fumble, they commit penalties, they shank punts, they can rarely hit medium ranged field goals consistently, they drop passes, etc., etc. Anything can happen. Rankings and SOS can be thrown out the window.

Originally posted by Rmbr26:
Re: Strength of Schedule: here are the top 10 rated teams in CCS along with their "SOS"
1. Valley Christian 9-2 SOS = 30.9
2. Los Gatos 9-2 SOS = 19.6
3. Bells 9-2 SOS = 30.8
4. Milpitas 10-1 SOS = 15.1
5. Mitty 7-4 SOS = 27.7
6. Serra 7-4 SOS = 37.0
7. Palma 9-2 SOS = 19.3
8. SHP 11-0 SOS = 12.4
9. St. Francis 7-4 SOS = 21.7
10. St. Ignatius 6-5 SOS = 31.3

The "Strength of Schedule" numbers are actually quite relevant in most cases as with other data collected such as points scored & points allowed. There will always be upsets and as good as Los Gatos played against Serra the Padres did not help their cause with 4 turn-overs and a myriad of penalties mostly at the wrong times. 2 good examples of SOS would be Bellarmine vs Milpitas & Los Gatos vs SHP. Milpitas was undefeated with one of the 2 lowest SOS ratings. Bellarmine who had 2 losses but a much tougher schedule & as I had pointed out in numerous posts wins by not making mistakes & with excellent coaching. In the game the Bells made fewer mistakes & the Bells coaching staff did a better job than Milpitas IMO. In this case the SOS did give some insight as to how Milpitas might perform against a team with a winning record who had played better opponents throughout the season.
Example #2 is Los Gatos vs SHP. SHP is undefeated at 11-0 while LG is 9-2, yet LG is the favored team this Saturday for one reason only, SOS. It is not to say that SHP could not beat LG, but with teams of similar records the team with the stronger SOS is going to be given the edge in the contest [ie: Valley Christian last year with several losses beating undefeated Terra Nova in the Open Division where VC had the much stronger SOS].
While there will be exceptions,the SOS rating is one of the strongest factors in predicting the outcome in the majority of games.

 

[colhenrylives]

Re: WCAL 2014 - CCS Playoffs - Thanksgiving Week Games

Patrick Walsh wasn't kidding. He used a frosh QB vs Palma Friday in Salinas and Serra managed a 28-14 win in a meaningless CCS consolation game. Freshmen and sophs abounded in this one. Not that it matters right now, but Serra will be one of the WCAL favorites in 2015. VC will be right there too. And, of course, Bellarmine will not be denied as well.

 

[NorCalSportsFan]

Re: WCAL 2014 - CCS Playoffs - Thanksgiving Week Games


Palma JV QB had a cast on his left hand. Some starters for both teams played in first three series. Rest was backups and underclass.

 

[Rmbr26]

Re: WCAL 2014 - CCS Playoffs - Thanksgiving Week Games

Originally posted by colhenrylives:
Patrick Walsh wasn't kidding. He used a frosh QB vs Palma Friday in Salinas and Serra managed a 28-14 win in a meaningless CCS consolation game. Freshmen and sophs abounded in this one. Not that it matters right now, but Serra will be one of the WCAL favorites in 2015. VC will be right there too. And, of course, Bellarmine will not be denied as well.


Interesting that Walsh would be giving a freshman a look at QB when he has starting QB Bishop returning as well as current soph Leki Nunn who started the first 4 games as QB. Maybe the Los Gatos game is giving coach some 2nd thoughts about which direction he wants to go in.

 

[PAL95]

Re: WCAL 2014 - CCS Playoffs - Thanksgiving Week Games

And I said it earlier this season that switching qbs would come back to haunt them and it did. Bishop threw a bunch of ints and fumbled away a few. With a full year he will be ok, but Nunn was holding his own and defeated VC and had a decent game against De La Salle

 

[HSS75]

Re: WCAL 2014 - CCS Playoffs - Thanksgiving Week Games

"Interesting that Walsh would be giving a freshman a look at QB when he has starting QB Bishop returning as well as current soph Leki Nunn who started the first 4 games as QB. Maybe the Los Gatos game is giving coach some 2nd thoughts about which direction he wants to go in."

As I mentioned earlier in the season, he did not stand out when he was at SF. Yes, he is very lucky to be in a team that is more athletic than his previous team in SF which can make him look good at times. If the freshman QB is as athletic as Nunn, then I won't be surprised he he gets the nod.

 

[Rmbr26]

Re: WCAL 2014 - CCS Playoffs - Thanksgiving Week Games

Originally posted by Rmbr26
"Interesting that Walsh would be giving a freshman a look at QB when he has starting QB Bishop returning as well as current soph Leki Nunn who started the first 4 games as QB. Maybe the Los Gatos game is giving coach some 2nd thoughts about which direction he wants to go in."
________________________________________________________________________________________________
Originally posted by HSS75:
As I mentioned earlier in the season, he did not stand out when he was at SF. Yes, he is very lucky to be in a team that is more athletic than his previous team in SF which can make him look good at times. If the freshman QB is as athletic as Nunn, then I won't be surprised he he gets the nod.

I've said previously that I was very impressed with Nunn from Serra for a number of reasons including that as a soph he appeared to be the most gifted athlete on the Serra squad. Starting his first game at QB against DLS Nunn actually had one of the better games by a QB vs DLS this season. He also was very good in the 4th game which was the Serra win over Valley Christian just before Serra changed QB's to Hunter Bishop. The following game vs St. Ignatius they switched Nunn to RB and he responded by rushing for 207 yards & 2 TD's. He also has been very good as a punt returner and took over punting when Lataimua went down with an injury. With the return of Kava Cassidy at RB they then switched Nunn to a WR position in which he saw a more limited role & occasionally getting a carry or 2 at RB.

So it seems the Serra coaching staff has a quandary to think over during the off season. Will Bishop mature in the next year into a more accurate passer with a stronger arm? With the return of Lataimua do you share RB carries between Lataimua & Nunn?
The biggest question is where do you put your best athlete in Nunn who will still be just a junior next year? I'm not sure who has the stronger arm, but in terms of INT's and missed passes I'm not sure Bishop was any more effective than Nunn, however with Nunn you have a QB who can run at any time & was much more elusive than Bishop. So a running QB or a drop back passer?
In a way its a good problem to have with 2 QB's returning both with game experience. I didn't see the frosh QB from Serra play against Palma, but its hard to imagine he would have the skill level to compete next year against the other 2 QB's with game experience. Hopefully he is that good & they will yet have another option.

 

[Dooer]

Re: WCAL 2014 - CCS Playoffs - Thanksgiving Week Games

According to Max Preps (take it with a grain of salt), neither QB was very efficient, though Bishop was probably better in each statistic, as a passer. This doesn't take into account differences in opponent quality.

 

[PAL95]

Re: WCAL 2014 - CCS Playoffs - Thanksgiving Week Games

From what I saw he was erratic and alot of his ints were thrown right into the opposing tems hands. His completions were mostly short passes turned into yards after the catch.