What division are CN and Marin Catholic in NCS for the playoffs this season?

[larry legend33]

I think that’s the elephant in the room; the huge drop off in football quality amongst D1 schools in the BVAL and the EBAL. The Monte Vista’s, the Foothills, The Freedom’s, the occasional Libery’s and Antioch’s. The Clayton Valley’s which should have played in D1 most years. When those schools were relevant, and they were fairly recently, there was zero talk of MC and CN being considered for The Open /D1 playoffs. Those of us who love HS football need to take a closer look at why so many decent football schools have fallen by the wayside. Monte Vista was a prominent football school for decades. Cal High has been very relevant before. Have demographics changed that much?

REMC,
Yes I think demographics have changed that much and the risk/fear of concussions has hurt football at the youth/hs age group over the past decade. I think long term you will see super leagues and more teams dropping football. Or the rules will drastically be different and its less "physical" which is already happening. Quite frankly there are a number of schools that should drop football as it stands. Sad indeed but that's the reality.

The east bay "whites" and "blacks" have moved up to Folsom, Elk Grove, Sacramento, El Dorado hills over the past 10-15 years. The new east bay is Indian and Chinese. They don't play football.

 

[NCS707]

REMC,
Yes I think demographics have changed that much and the risk/fear of concussions has hurt football at the youth/hs age group over the past decade. I think long term you will see super leagues and more teams dropping football. Or the rules will drastically be different and its less "physical" which is already happening. Quite frankly there are a number of schools that should drop football as it stands. Sad indeed but that's the reality.

The east bay "whites" and "blacks" have moved up to Folsom, Elk Grove, Sacramento, El Dorado hills over the past 10-15 years. The new east bay is Indian and Chinese. They don't play football.

In tri valley and surround areas the demographics are changing racially and from a middle and upper middle class to upper class area socioeconomically.

As for BVAL not long ago every single team has been good. I’m not sure what’s happened. The schools are as large as ever enrollment wise, people are still flocking from the inner Bay Area to that area too. On paper pretty much every school should be able to put out a competitive football program, CalPreps ranking 0 or higher, but it’s not happening right now. It’s Pitt, big drop off, Liberty is still good, another drop off Heritage and Antioch are ok but up and down, Freedom is baffling and Deer Valley has been bad for awhile now.

Not super close to private schools either, DLS takes kids but is a commute, Berean Christian same, and all there is, is tiny Cornerstone Christian in Antioch.

 

[observer22]

It will be interesting what the secret NCS committee does now to fill the Open/D1 bracket. CN would have been a lock had they remained undefeated, but now 2-loss MC would have to be put in first. Will both be selected? They could both definitely compete with everyone outside of DLS & Pitt. Does EC get in despite all the forfeits based on their body of work on the field?

Locks are DLS, Pitt, SRV, Cal (7-2), & the winner of Liberty/Heritage next week (as 2nd place in BVAL). That leaves 3 spots. Other D1 possibilities are the Liberty/Heritage loser, CVC (who will be 5-4 after the DLS loss next week, and AV (who just beat MV, and could finish 6-3 if they beat Cal next week). It is doubtful that D2 MV would be brought up after the last place finish in the EBAL Mountain. 2 other D1 teams at 5-4 may also be considered in SL & Berkeley.

It is likely, they will just bring up DLS & SRV from D2, and fill the remaining spots with 6 of the other D1 teams listed above. CN may have just dodged a bullet.

 

[FBAddict]

It will be interesting what the secret NCS committee does now to fill the Open/D1 bracket. CN would have been a lock had they remained undefeated, but now 2-loss MC would have to be put in first. Will both be selected? They could both definitely compete with everyone outside of DLS & Pitt. Does EC get in despite all the forfeits based on their body of work on the field?

Locks are DLS, Pitt, SRV, Cal (7-2), & the winner of Liberty/Heritage next week (as 2nd place in BVAL). That leaves 3 spots. Other D1 possibilities are the Liberty/Heritage loser, CVC (who will be 5-4 after the DLS loss next week, and AV (who just beat MV, and could finish 6-3 if they beat Cal next week). It is doubtful that D2 MV would be brought up after the last place finish in the EBAL Mountain. 2 other D1 teams at 5-4 may also be considered in SL & Berkeley.

It is likely, they will just bring up DLS & SRV from D2, and fill the remaining spots with 6 of the other D1 teams listed above. CN may have just dodged a bullet.

Dodging a bullet is what I thought this week's game was about. But frankly both teams looked pretty good.

 

[THEOC89]

It will be interesting what the secret NCS committee does now to fill the Open/D1 bracket. CN would have been a lock had they remained undefeated, but now 2-loss MC would have to be put in first. Will both be selected? They could both definitely compete with everyone outside of DLS & Pitt. Does EC get in despite all the forfeits based on their body of work on the field?

Locks are DLS, Pitt, SRV, Cal (7-2), & the winner of Liberty/Heritage next week (as 2nd place in BVAL). That leaves 3 spots. Other D1 possibilities are the Liberty/Heritage loser, CVC (who will be 5-4 after the DLS loss next week, and AV (who just beat MV, and could finish 6-3 if they beat Cal next week). It is doubtful that D2 MV would be brought up after the last place finish in the EBAL Mountain. 2 other D1 teams at 5-4 may also be considered in SL & Berkeley.

It is likely, they will just bring up DLS & SRV from D2, and fill the remaining spots with 6 of the other D1 teams listed above. CN may have just dodged a bullet.

I think CN has to go into The Open…. It would be absolutely Criminal to put them in D6 or D4 or whatever division they are Rediculously put in based on their enrollment….. 🤣

Hopefully they use the “For the good of the Bracket” clause for MC and CN…. Those 2 teams should be no lower than NCS D2:…

 

[NCS707]

I remember I was critical for emphasizing this NCS playoff format will reward losing.

CN rests guys next week, loses to Vintage, D4 1 seed and cruises to state “bowl” game.

Not saying they’ll do that but someone eventually will.

 

[THEOC89]

I remember I was critical for emphasizing this NCS playoff format will reward losing.

CN rests guys next week, loses to Vintage, D4 1 seed and cruises to state “bowl” game.

Not saying they’ll do that but someone eventually will.

Exactly!!…. You can’t have that if you are the NCS…. We don’t need to see CN in the D4AA regional or SBG against Nobody Cares….. 🤣

I want to see CN compete against NCS D2 or Better teams…. They are a Flagship Nor Cal program…. They are not some D6 or D4 Program…..

 

[NCS707]

Exactly!!…. You can’t have that if you are the NCS…. We don’t need to see CN in the D4AA regional or SBG against Nobody Cares….. 🤣

I want to see CN compete against NCS D2 or Better teams…. They are a Flagship Nor Cal program…. They are not some D6 or D4 Program…..

Cardinal Newman and Marin Catholic should always be in the division below DLS and the large school powers. Like they were for many years (3A/D2). Anything lower is ridiculous.

As for how to create the brackets in the NCS, I’m not sure there is a perfect way. The section is too varied. From rural and small publics to large publics with good football programs to large with poor tradition/demographics to privates.


Do SS folks like the format down there? They seems way too extreme with Calpreps. It’s too finicky to go from a 16 seed to a 1 seed and get screwed. I guess at that point all playoff games are “bowl” games. An extra game, you’re not really proving you’re the “best” of anything. You’re just the “best” of section rank #17-32 or whatnot.

 

[THEOC89]

Cardinal Newman and Marin Catholic should always be in the division below DLS and the large school powers. Like they were for many years (3A/D2). Anything lower is ridiculous.

As for how to create the brackets in the NCS, I’m not sure there is a perfect way. The section is too varied. From rural and small publics to large publics with good football programs to large with poor tradition/demographics to privates.


Do SS folks like the format down there? They seems way too extreme with Calpreps. It’s too finicky to go from a 16 seed to a 1 seed and get screwed. I guess at that point all playoff games are “bowl” games. An extra game, you’re not really proving you’re the “best” of anything. You’re just the “best” of section rank #17-32 or whatnot.

The So Cal Format works really well because there are really only 3 Sections that encompass all of So Cal…. The biggest Section being the “Southern Section” which covers all of So Cal to Bakersfield/Fresno, excluding San Diego and the Small LA Section…..

San Diego and LA are not interested in Competing with MD and SJB for the Open so they Compete for D1AA and Below…. San Diego actually has the best Open Format where their 4 Top Ranked teams compete in Their Open Bracket and the Winner Plays in the D1AA regional game against SS D2 winner…. There is No loser moves on format for the San Diego Bracket…..

Our issue in Nor Cal is we have too many sections so each one has their own interests which makes it impossible to crown a true Champion of Nor Cal because there is no more Open Payoff game….

 

[bella123]

The So Cal Format works really well because there are really only 3 Sections that encompass all of So Cal…. The biggest Section being the “Southern Section” which covers all of So Cal to Bakersfield/Fresno, excluding San Diego and the Small LA Section…..

San Diego and LA are not interested in Competing with MD and SJB for the Open so they Compete for D1AA and Below…. San Diego actually has the best Open Format where their 4 Top Ranked teams compete in Their Open Bracket and the Winner Plays in the D1AA regional game against SS D2 winner…. There is No loser moves on format for the San Diego Bracket…..

Our issue in Nor Cal is we have too many sections so each one has their own interests which makes it impossible to crown a true Champion of Nor Cal because there is no more Open Payoff game….

Been saying it for years. Get rid of the sections.

 

[Cal 14]

Been saying it for years. Get rid of the sections.

The only people who want to get rid of the sections are the fans. The schools themselves have no interest in doing that.

 

[kiddman32]

The only people who want to get rid of the sections are the fans. The schools themselves have no interest in doing that.

Which is unfortunate. Many states have excellent playoffs with no sections, or just the state split in half geographically, like East/West.

 

[bella123]

The only people who want to get rid of the sections are the fans. The schools themselves have no interest in doing that.

I personally know several coaches who can’t stand the NCS and have mentioned it several times.

 

[FBAddict]

Which is unfortunate. Many states have excellent playoffs with no sections, or just the state split in half geographically, like East/West.

I'm not sure I understand what you mean....

Almost every state has regions and districts that are very similar to our sections and leagues. And other states have geographic alignment of their regions just like our sections. The playoffs are derived from those levels in other states. Divisions is another common divider further segmenting schools. Most states have a form of enrollment-based division. And very few states have the CA form of fluid divisions based primarily on strength.

The problem we have in CA is a combination of equity and enrollment. Some sections largely govern divisions by equity of strength and other sections govern divisions by enrollment or some combination of such. And since our current bowl (pseudo-playoff) structure is based on equity, divisions should mirror that structure.

I think it is absolutely essential to have regions (or sections) but we really need the CIF to mandate what the districts (leagues) and what divisions should look like so there is a uniform description of all level regardless of what basis the CIF mandates.

 

[kiddman32]

What I mean is most states don't have sections that govern themselves, sometimes differently than other sections.

In most states I know, the "sections" are simply geographical separations used for playoff pairings so that you don't have teams criss-crossing the state to play tourney games. In some cases. a "section" is just one or two leagues per enrollment division (if there are any. Kentucky, for example, plays all one division, and Indiana used to do this also until the mid-90's).

Oregon has six enrollment-based divisions, no geographical sectioning at all. Especially ln the smaller divisions, sometimes a playoff game means 300 miles or more one-way. I don't know why they don't at least split the state playoffs geographically in half to cut down on the long trips, but I'm not in charge.

I believe the same is true in Washington. (Yes, I watch playoff games out-of-state if I can, at least in hoops. I knew about Paige Bueckers and Caitlin Clark long before most of the general public did. Watched Cooper Flagg dominate in Maine when he was a freshman, and so on...)

 

[kiddman32]

(yes, I ramble a bit sometimes. In related news, water is wet.)

 

[FBAddict]

What I mean is most states don't have sections that govern themselves, sometimes differently than other sections.

In most states I know, the "sections" are simply geographical separations used for playoff pairings so that you don't have teams criss-crossing the state to play tourney games.

Okay, gotcha... Sound like we are saying the same thing. In my mind, it is better stated that instead of no sections (or section that govern themselves), we have CIF organized sections. I believe this idea would lead to a true playoff system based on a criteria that is the same for all sections and divisions so that, at playoff season, we don't have a reorganized set of divisions.

 

[aztecpadre]

REMC,
Yes I think demographics have changed that much and the risk/fear of concussions has hurt football at the youth/hs age group over the past decade. I think long term you will see super leagues and more teams dropping football. Or the rules will drastically be different and its less "physical" which is already happening. Quite frankly there are a number of schools that should drop football as it stands. Sad indeed but that's the reality.

The east bay "whites" and "blacks" have moved up to Folsom, Elk Grove, Sacramento, El Dorado hills over the past 10-15 years. The new east bay is Indian and Chinese. They don't play football.

You stole my thunder. I was going to say that lots of people from India and China have become the majority around here in the silicon valley over the last decade or so. At my kids school they are becoming the majority and football is just not their sport of choice. I can see lots of schools dropping football or at least not support it like they have in the past.

 

[observer22]

Okay, gotcha... Sound like we are saying the same thing. In my mind, it is better stated that instead of no sections (or section that govern themselves), we have CIF organized sections. I believe this idea would lead to a true playoff system based on a criteria that is the same for all sections and divisions so that, at playoff season, we don't have a reorganized set of divisions.

And we wouldn’t have entire sections comprised of just 6 schools, while others have more than 100.

 

[Cal 14]

Okay, gotcha... Sound like we are saying the same thing. In my mind, it is better stated that instead of no sections (or section that govern themselves), we have CIF organized sections. I believe this idea would lead to a true playoff system based on a criteria that is the same for all sections and divisions so that, at playoff season, we don't have a reorganized set of divisions.

Yes, we already have schools moving from one league to another due to travel concerns. I couldn't imagine their displeasure having to travel cross-state for a regular playoff game (granted, in some areas that already does happen).

Tough to compare what happens in Indiana and Kentucky with California, which has nearly twice the number of football teams than those states combined.

 

[Cal 14]

I personally know several coaches who can’t stand the NCS and have mentioned it several times.

Coaches are not the schools.

The Central Section put up a rule change to vote that would require teams to move up from the current 30% win percentage in order to participate in the playoffs. The schools said "Nah, keep it at 30."

 

[bella123]

There is a governing board for the state, CIF. That is all that is needed. There is no need for “sections” with their own commissioner’s and own sets of rules. How about one level playing field for all. There is no consistency in the state.

How about one governing body? Transfer rules all applied the same. Discipline consistent across the stare. Playoffs, none of this double elimination keep playing when you lose in this section, but in this other section you lose and your season is over. That is terrible.

As someone who did work in government, I understand the idea of bloated redundancy and job security aspect, lol. Seriously there is one section that has 6 teams and they have their own commissioner, are you kidding me?

 

[Cal 14]

There is a governing board for the state, CIF. That is all that is needed. There is no need for “sections” with their own commissioner’s and own sets of rules. How about one level playing field for all. There is no consistency in the state.

How about one governing body? Transfer rules all applied the same. Discipline consistent across the stare. Playoffs, none of this double elimination keep playing when you lose in this section, but in this other section you lose and your season is over. That is terrible.

As someone who did work in government, I understand the idea of bloated redundancy and job security aspect, lol. Seriously there is one section that has 6 teams and they have their own commissioner, are you kidding me?

Given how large the state is, if you were to consider something like this like a big company, you'd still have to have at least 6 'field offices': Far North, Bay Area, Upper Sac-Joaquin, Lower Sac-Joaquin, Greater Los Angeles, and San Diego. These would have to operate very much like the sections, although the CIF could push uniformity in the rules. I don't think you could eliminate the regions altogether.

 

[FBAddict]

I wanted to wait until the standard ranking services had finished their rankings after this weekend's games. All services still have both MC and CN high in the rankings for NCS section.

The consensus is this ranking order:
DLS
Pitts
SRV
MC
CN

Some of the other ranking don't go deep enough to see other teams in the NCS rankings. Only Maxpreps and On3 go deeper. Of those services, these teams are next on the list:
El Cerritos (probably not able to qualify)
California
San Marin
Liberty (Brentwood)
Clayton Valley
Amador Valley

CalHiSports does list an additional 20 bubble teams below the state top 50. Cardinal Newman fell into that bubble list and no other team, aside from El Cerritos, is from the NCS section.

I think for CN to securely avoid Open, they need to bite another bullet with a lose to Vintage. And MC could have a challenging game with Windsor.

If somehow CN and MC can be placed in another lower division, they will cut through the other teams of that lower division like a hot knife through butter. It would only be in regionals that either team, as winners, would be properly placed according to their equity level.

 

[observer22]

I wanted to wait until the standard ranking services had finished their rankings after this weekend's games. All services still have both MC and CN high in the rankings for NCS section.

The consensus is this ranking order:
DLS
Pitts
SRV
MC
CN

Some of the other ranking don't go deep enough to see other teams in the NCS rankings. Only Maxpreps and On3 go deeper. Of those services, these teams are next on the list:
El Cerritos (probably not able to qualify)
California
San Marin
Liberty (Brentwood)
Clayton Valley
Amador Valley

CalHiSports does list an additional 20 bubble teams below the state top 50. Cardinal Newman fell into that bubble list and no other team, aside from El Cerritos, is from the NCS section.

I think for CN to securely avoid Open, they need to bite another bullet with a lose to Vintage. And MC could have a challenging game with Windsor.

If somehow CN and MC can be placed in another lower division, they will cut through the other teams of that lower division like a hot knife through butter. It would only be in regionals that either team, as winners, would be properly placed according to their equity level.

I don’t think it’s as easy as just picking the top 8 teams, although a real open division should be just that. Since it’s also the D1 bracket, D1 teams having good seasons like Cal & Liberty would be shut out of the postseason altogether if they aren’t put in that bracket. Same with AV & Heritage. Unless the committee would actually move them down to D2, which is not a good idea. CVC will be 6-4 after they get pummeled by DLS this week, but they should still be in the D1 field as they will have qualified for the playoffs and should be competitive.

Schools like MC, CN, Acalanes & San Marin can be put in a lower bracket (not D6!). D2 schools DLS & SRV clearly belong in the Open/D1 bracket. In basketball, there is still a D1 bracket below the Open, but the current NCS system has them combined. For every MC or CN that is brought up, a CVC or Heritage is either excluded from the playoffs or put down into D2?

 

[FBAddict]

I don’t think it’s as easy as just picking the top 8 teams, although a real open division should be just that. Since it’s also the D1 bracket, D1 teams having good seasons like Cal & Liberty would be shut out of the postseason altogether if they aren’t put in that bracket. Same with AV & Heritage. Unless the committee would actually move them down to D2, which is not a good idea. CVC will be 6-4 after they get pummeled by DLS this week, but they should still be in the D1 field as they will have qualified for the playoffs and should be competitive.

Schools like MC, CN & San Marin can be put in a lower bracket (not D6!). In basketball, there is still a D1 bracket below the Open, but the current NCS system has them combined.

I haven't read deep enough - will the NCS committee be able to use their equity system to move teams to a lower division than their slated division according to enrollment? If indeed if they have to populate Open/D1 slots with only D1 schools and special Open teams, you may be right. But if a weaker D1 team can be slated as a D2 team, it makes the Open division work better. If indeed CN is moved from D6 to Open, it seems you have a slot to fill from divisions above D6 - therefore you have chain reaction of slots to fill from above..

 

[NCS707]

So is Cardinal Newman going to “throw” the game against Vintage? San Marin “throwing” the game against Rancho?

NCS playoff system has major flaws if losing is rewarded. I’m sorry. It’s actually beneficial to be 2nd or 3rd in your league and get “lucky” in a lower division and win. No one cares about what division bracket you made it to. They (players/parents/fans) care about winning playoff games. Division be dammed.

 

[observer22]

I haven't read deep enough - will the NCS committee be able to use their equity system to move teams to a lower division than their slated division according to enrollment? If indeed if they have to populate Open/D1 slots with only D1 schools and special Open teams, you may be right. But if a weaker D1 team can be slated as a D2 team, it makes the Open division work better. If indeed CN is moved from D6 to Open, it seems you have a slot to fill from divisions above D6 - therefore you have chain reaction of slots to fill from above..

Good question. That didn’t do it last year, but both MC & CN are better this season. We’ll have to wait & see next weekend.

 

[NCS707]

Good question. That didn’t do it last year, but both MC & CN are better this season. We’ll have to wait & see next weekend.

2 divisions above or below your base division. I scanned quickly over the volleyball brackets and there are no expectations. Other than D1/Open.

 

[FBAddict]

2 divisions above or below your base division. I scanned quickly over the volleyball brackets and there are no expectations. Other than D1/Open.

OK, that makes the system work.

 

[larry legend33]

Any predictions? Believe meeting is today so we should know soon. MC is a shoe in for the Open although Windsor gave them a heck of a game. I gotta think NCS will not load 2 very good smaller schools in the open. Both of these schools have a good chance to be in a RBG if they played at D2 level.

 

[NCS707]

OK, that makes the system work.

The system isn’t great because the NCS has a large number of small publics and very small privates that can’t or won’t emphasize sports (most of these don’t have football though). The NCL and HDN winners will be moved up for doing well and face a mediocre large school. This will largely leave a solid chunk of NCS school left out of the a section championship opportunity. This issue is worse in volleyball, basketball, ect… where there are even more small schools who can’t elevate their programs.

The similar system works better in SS and CCS though.

CCS has some protection to lower divisions, sometimes you’ll get a SHC in D3 or HMB in D1 but I think they’ve resolved these ridiculous placements.

SS doesn’t really have the small public schools, many stay in 8 man despite the #s for 11. Once your public has 1000 or so enrolled pure Calprep rankings makes more sense, less inherent disadvantages. Although the “luck” of a 1 seed or 16 seed is frustrating. You really have to treat the playoffs as an opportunity to play extra games, that’s all it is. Placements and opponents have a huge luck component to it.

 

[NCS707]

Any predictions? Believe meeting is today so we should know soon. MC is a shoe in for the Open although Windsor gave them a heck of a game. I gotta think NCS will not load 2 very good smaller schools in the open. Both of these schools have a good chance to be in a RBG if they played at D2 level.

View: https://x.com/justguspd/status/1855664566027665797?s=46

DLS vs San Marin in D1?

 

[remc]

The system isn’t great because the NCS has a large number of small publics and very small privates that can’t or won’t emphasize sports (most of these don’t have football though). The NCL and HDN winners will be moved up for doing well and face a mediocre large school. This will largely leave a solid chunk of NCS school left out of the a section championship opportunity. This issue is worse in volleyball, basketball, ect… where there are even more small schools who can’t elevate their programs.

The similar system works better in SS and CCS though.

CCS has some protection to lower divisions, sometimes you’ll get a SHC in D3 or HMB in D1 but I think they’ve resolved these ridiculous placements.

SS doesn’t really have the small public schools, many stay in 8 man despite the #s for 11. Once your public has 1000 or so enrolled pure Calprep rankings makes more sense, less inherent disadvantages. Although the “luck” of a 1 seed or 16 seed is frustrating. You really have to treat the playoffs as an opportunity to play extra games, that’s all it is. Placements and opponents have a huge luck component to it.

Absolutely correct about the NCS. Seems most of the schools have deemphasized sports, especially football

 

[NCS707]

Open/D1 might only be 4 teams…
Big implications down the brackets if true

 

[larry legend33]

Open/D1 might only be 4 teams…
Big implications down the brackets if true

That actually makes some sense to me but I'm hearing Newman vs MC in a rematch round 1 open.

 

[NCS707]

That actually makes some sense to me.

Nope we got DLS vs San Marin 1v8

 

[FBAddict]

I have not seen the middle slots yet, but if SM got #8 slot, it seems that both MC and CN are in too

 

[MC415]

Wonder next year if these smaller schools will just schedule down and stay out of the Open so they have a chance to make a run in the playoffs, not much incentive for these teams to schedule up

 

[larry legend33]

Wonder next year if these smaller schools will just schedule down and stay out of the Open so they have a chance to make a run in the playoffs, not much incentive for these teams to schedule up

Yeah that is a bummer for a school like SM. They are a solid D3-D4 type team and will get hammered by DLS. Even newman and mc should be playing D2 really. They could make a serious run at RBG in that division. But they aren't open level. So here go again... Inferior teams playing late in the season. Yippee. If I'm windsor I'm lovin it.