Can we start guessing at NorCal Open yet?

[TheHillZ]

Mitty
St. Marys
Folsom
Cardinal Newman
Clovis West
SRV
Carondelet

And the very unlucky #8 is? I would say Acalanes, but note that they lost one of their starters to a knee.

Obviously sectional tourneys will impact this some, but probably not very much. Maybe Clovis goes south and they play with six again?

 

[northbaybbguru]

I have heard that the SJS is going back to enrollment based sections. Is that starting this year or next? Does anyone know?

If enrollment based again that will have an impact on the SJS Open teams as SMS will be moved to D2.

.....anyways....

I'm don't think they take 8.

I'll go with 4 and I'll assume the new SJS sections don't begin until next season

Mitty
SJS D1 champ
NCS Open champ
CW

 

[becoolpt55]

Mitty
St. Marys
Folsom
Cardinal Newman
Clovis West
SRV
Carondelet

And the very unlucky #8 is? I would say Acalanes, but note that they lost one of their starters to a knee.

Obviously sectional tourneys will impact this some, but probably not very much. Maybe Clovis goes south and they play with six again?

Didn’t CN just beat Folsom

 

[TheHillZ]

True true. Wasn't paying much attention to the seedings after #1 (and #8) because those will vary with the postseason. But sure, put CN ahead of Folsom

 

[Norcal_Fan]

I have heard that the SJS is going back to enrollment based sections. Is that starting this year or next? Does anyone know?

If enrollment based again that will have an impact on the SJS Open teams as SMS will be moved to D2.

.....anyways....

I'm don't think they take 8.

I'll go with 4 and I'll assume the new SJS sections don't begin until next season

Mitty
SJS D1 champ
NCS Open champ
CW

It's not just the SJS, but apparently, it's been brought up at the NCS BOM meeting, and there is an overwhelming favor to repealing competitive equity. I also heard that CIF is considering an entire overhaul!
BOD D3
Salesian D4
C-Let D2
Moreau D4
CN D4
Acalanes D3
San Dominico D5
University D4
Las Lomas D2
Piedmont D4
Alameda D2
Foothill and DV D1
Branson D5

D 1 would be ALL SRV
D2 we'd see C-Let dominate probably one of the weakest divisions in D2
D3?
D4 loaded
D5 ?

I also heard that they will continue to have an 8-team open division, which could help for NCS playoffs but wiwll be tough to seed after playoffs.

 

[ClayK]

Here's the solution:

At the end of the season, each section ranks all its qualifiers 1 to 120 (or however many they have). The top eight are Open. The next 16 are D1. Etc.

If you're no. 8 in Open, you're unlucky. If you're no. 25, you're smiling.

There is no fair way, no good way, to do this. Enrollment makes no sense -- just hand the NorCal title to Pinewood right now. Preseason classifications are pointless, and since all the teams are ranked anyway, within their divisions, why not just rank them all to begin with?

 

[AtomicDawg1911]

BOD beat SMS.

 

[winetot]

Here's the solution:

At the end of the season, each section ranks all its qualifiers 1 to 120 (or however many they have). The top eight are Open. The next 16 are D1. Etc.

If you're no. 8 in Open, you're unlucky. If you're no. 25, you're smiling.

There is no fair way, no good way, to do this. Enrollment makes no sense -- just hand the NorCal title to Pinewood right now. Preseason classifications are pointless, and since all the teams are ranked anyway, within their divisions, why not just rank them all to begin with?

The problem is the ranking system is flawed. In order for this to work they would need unbiased members of a committee that are willing to spend HOURS of time to get it correct. Enrollment makes no sense for whom? Does it make sense that a school with 3000 students plays a school with 400(say a one year wonder)? There should be an open division for sure but after that I think enrollment makes perfect sense and if a school wants to petition up(1 division) that should be allowed as well.

 

[The Poop Monster]

It doesn't matter because Mitty slaughters everyone in it anyways

 

[ClayK]

We just had Dougherty Valley play Redwood Christian in a championship game in the West Coast Jamboree. 3400 vs. 281. Game was tied until the fourth quarter and DV eventually won 49-43.

Want to predict a score between Pinewood (600) and Cupertino (2100)?

And the one-year wonder is why you do the rankings at the end of each season. You don't move teams up or down. You just rate them on how they did in the season in question. The next year you rate them on how they did that season.

 

[salgovernaleisaturtle]

I have heard that the SJS is going back to enrollment based sections. Is that starting this year or next? Does anyone know?

If enrollment based again that will have an impact on the SJS Open teams as SMS will be moved to D2.

this year is the same as last
it's always been enrollment based, with league division designation (can't play lower than 1 below league designation, and league champ plays at designation) and the continued excellence clause restricting movement down, which bumps smaller schools up.

but it's 79 automatic qualifiers Div 1-4
plus
top 15 max preps
to fill 4 16 team brackets, so there will be outbracket games.

sms and antelope are locked into D1.

vanden, CB and del oro locked into D2, unless del oro wins the sfl, a D1 league, then they'd be D1.

 

[salgovernaleisaturtle]

We just had Dougherty Valley play Redwood Christian in a championship game in the West Coast Jamboree. 3400 vs. 281. Game was tied until the fourth quarter and DV eventually won 49-43.

Want to predict a score between Pinewood (600) and Cupertino (2100)?

And the one-year wonder is why you do the rankings at the end of each season. You don't move teams up or down. You just rate them on how they did in the season in question. The next year you rate them on how they did that season.

only takes 1 great player to take a bad team to a decent to good team. get 3 of those? you become a contender.

enrollment matters when you need take a random pool of students and have to cull talent from it. Football, you need a lot of better than average athletic role players to supplement stud players. So larger schools have an advantage there.

Good basketball teams are rarely randomly put together. And you don't need high volume of better than average role players to get a good team.

 

[salgovernaleisaturtle]

good basketball teams for public schools:
you need the following combination:
open enrollment
good coaching and junior program
admin support

any small school that has those things can build a strong program.

 

[northbaybbguru]

I think the biggest gripe if I'm reading this correctly is the "big schools" that get dropped down divisions for the competitive equity bs.

So the answer is make there a "floor" for every division. Something like u can't be dropped more than 1 level. So D1 can only be dropped as far as D2 in the playoffs.

This is sports and there always someone bigger and badder (unless you're Mitty) .... stop trying to even everything out that's not how sports work.

If a school is forced to play at their division or 1 lower and they get their ass kicked? So be it..they arent good enough. Welcome to life. Go back to work and get better.

The entire CE systen has been pushed by the public big school people cause they are tired of getting beat by the privates. Well that's what the Open is for....

I'm all for going back to enrollment divisions with the caveat of each section (NCS, CCS, SJS) having their own Open divisions.

 

[Norcal_Fan]

We just had Dougherty Valley play Redwood Christian in a championship game in the West Coast Jamboree. 3400 vs. 281. Game was tied until the fourth quarter and DV eventually won 49-43.

Want to predict a score between Pinewood (600) and Cupertino (2100)?

And the one-year wonder is why you do the rankings at the end of each season. You don't move teams up or down. You just rate them on how they did in the season in question. The next year you rate them on how they did that season.

one thing I appreciated about the "old days" is when seedings were open, coaches would stand before one another and talk about why they deserved to be a one seed or why they deserved to even get in. The thing i hate about the current system is that there's NO transparency of how the process is selected. I also hate how "winning" teams with a strength of schedule of less than 3 are seeded a lot higher than those with average records but have a strength of schedule that's greater than 12.

According to that thinking, the poor sisters of the NCS, NCLI, II, HDN and BCL teams would have higher rankings and get creamed when they would play out of their division. Is it their fault? Part of that falls on the coaches for scheduling cupcakes but sometimes, especially in the rural areas, you probably take what you can get. Clay, what would you do if a team was ranked in the top 20, strength of schedule of lets say 4-5 and 20 wins? They'd play in division 2 and probably get worked is my thinking. I like enrollment based playoffs with teams opting to move up if they so desire.

 

[ClayK]

The open meetings were best at the NorCal level. At NCS, they had a three-person panel who knew nothing about the teams apply the criteria. Often, teams, as you say, with a glittering 20-6 record would be seeded higher than a legit team that was 17-9.

Enrollment simply doesn't apply, public or private. As mentioned upthread, you only need a couple players to be good, and a supportive administration. Pinewood is the classic example, and when you talk about opting up, Pinewood would go to D2 from D5, say.

Way back in the day, Campolindo was a D4 power, so other D4 teams opted to D3 or D2, not because they wanted better competition, but to stay away from Campo. People will always manipulate systems to their own advantage.

I've seen pretty much all the attempts, and none of them work. All have significant flaws, and all are vulnerable to manipulation. That's why I like putting all the teams in the same pool at the end of the year and just ranking them 1 to 120 (or whatever). The decisions are then at least based on what happened on the court, not at some committee meeting.

Oh, and enrollment numbers can be manipulated too. St. Joseph Notre Dame was always five students under the cap for Division 5, and thus dominated. I'm sure, year in and year out, it was just coincidence.

 

[northbaybbguru]

I had a coach suggest to me recenty:

Instead of calling it a "state championship " at the lower levels call it what it is...if you win at D2 ...you get a banner saying you are #49 in state...and see if teams are so quick to drop. (16 open teams and 32 in D1)

In college is there any team that would take the NIT championship over making the NCAA tourney? Nope...everyone wants to make the top tourney.

There is something inherently wrong in the system when the system encourages team to rather drop levels.

 

[ClayK]

I think the only state champion should be the Open champion, and every team that gets to the Open gets a banner to put on the wall.

All the others are Division Champions, with a banner to put on the wall.

 

[northbaybbguru]

I think the only state champion should be the Open champion, and every team that gets to the Open gets a banner to put on the wall.

All the others are Division Champions, with a banner to put on the wall.

I'm cool with that...

Calif D2, D3 etc. champs banner

And absolutely OPEN participants should get a special banner.

Honestly I'd be open to leaving the top 2 seeds in D1 open so that the 1st round losers in the Open could be placed in D1 going forward. Then there'd be no one ducking the Open.

 

[northbaybbguru]

A 4 team Open only. Section champs only placed in the open.

CCS champ
NCS champ
SJS champ
Central champ

2 1st rd OPEN losers being put back in D1

 

[bb-hoops]

Clay, I like your idea to rank teams 1 through 120. This approach eliminates all of the flaws in the current and past seeding meetings (no divisions, size of school makes no difference, teams don't get penalized). Simply and easy as long as the committee members know their stuff, which is the million dollar question. You would need a committed of people that are 100% non-basis and dialed in on high school basketball. So it comes down to finding the right committee and it would really well to make the idea legit. What's your thoughts beyond the idea and how to implement the idea?

 

[ClayK]

Clay, I like your idea to rank teams 1 through 120. This approach eliminates all of the flaws in the current and past seeding meetings (no divisions, size of school makes no difference, teams don't get penalized). Simply and easy as long as the committee members know their stuff, which is the million dollar question. You would need a committed of people that are 100% non-basis and dialed in on high school basketball. So it comes down to finding the right committee and it would really well to make the idea legit. What's your thoughts beyond the idea and how to implement the idea?

What's interesting is that the NCS committee, at least, ranks all the girls' teams anyway -- but they divide them by division. So it's the same amount of work, really.

The committee, unfortunately, is anonymous, so there's no accountability, but the group (five, I believe) has done a reasonably good job on a very difficult task.

I don't think the implementation would be too difficult. It would take a group of people to put together the proposal, get a league to sponsor it, and then go through a year or two of negotiation to get it passed by the NCS Board of Governors.

And the NorCal and SoCal playoffs are already done this way.

 

[colhenrylives]

A 4 team Open only. Section champs only placed in the open.

CCS champ
NCS champ
SJS champ
Central champ

2 1st rd OPEN losers being put back in D1

 

[colhenrylives]

Is this your four-team playoff list for 2024 only or would it stand up in 2025 and beyond? If an OAL champion, or even a AAA or Northern titlist, were deemed top-of-the-line, would it be included?

 

[Norcal_Fan]

What's interesting is that the NCS committee, at least, ranks all the girls' teams anyway -- but they divide them by division. So it's the same amount of work, really.

The committee, unfortunately, is anonymous, so there's no accountability, but the group (five, I believe) has done a reasonably good job on a very difficult task.

I don't think the implementation would be too difficult. It would take a group of people to put together the proposal, get a league to sponsor it, and then go through a year or two of negotiation to get it passed by the NCS Board of Governors.

And the NorCal and SoCal playoffs are already done this way.

The problem is that MOST of the time, the committee (Pat and the other two commissioners) use Max preps as the #1 formula for ranking those teams when going into Norcals. Which is why you see a lot of lower division schools end up in higher divisions and vice versa

 

[salgovernaleisaturtle]

I think the biggest gripe if I'm reading this correctly is the "big schools" that get dropped down divisions for the competitive equity bs.

So the answer is make there a "floor" for every division. Something like u can't be dropped more than 1 level. So D1 can only be dropped as far as D2 in the playoffs.

This is the SJS system.

The leagues have a division designation, and you can't go lower than 1 division, but it's enrollment based. If you win the league, you play at that division. But you can't play lower than your enrollment.

Folsom is a D1 school in a D1 league. They are in D1
SMS a D4 school in the TCAL, which is a D1 league. If they win the TCAL, they are in D1. If not, they can't go lower than D2.
McClatchy is s D1 school in a D2 league. They are in D1.
Rocklin and Laguna Creek are enrollment bubble schools, could be D1, could be D2, depending on who makes the playoffs. Rocklin is in a D1 league, so if they win league, they are in D1. If not, they could be D1 or D2. Laguna creek is in a D2 league. If they win league, depending on which side of the bubble, they could go D1 or D2.

Then there is the continued excellence clause. If you keep winning, you keep moving up... SMS girls BKB, Central Catholic football.

 

[salgovernaleisaturtle]

I think the only state champion should be the Open champion, and every team that gets to the Open gets a banner to put on the wall.

All the others are Division Champions, with a banner to put on the wall.

there was a thread last year about this... i agree with this, but others think it's robbing schools the glory of utilizing the state champ moniker. I got called an a$$hat elitist for suggesting as much.