It is my understanding that no team or school can turn down the open. The “top” eight selected by the committee go…
Pretty you would get sanctioned, if I remember reading correctly.
In looking at your teams above, I agree that those would be the teams that go open as well.
I also believe the top four seeds, according to MaxPreps are locked in.
#1 Mitty
#2 Sacred Heart Cathedral (Three losses, two to Mitty, one to Salesian)
#3 Los Gatos (won their league and beat Paly twice)
#4 Palo Alto
Then it comes down to the final five teams that realistically have a shot.
Branham, SI, Crystal, Pinewood, and MA.
To me, Branham and SI are interchangeable, though the #5 seed has to play in Pool A with Mitty. SI has by far the more difficult schedule (though never really had close games against the likes of Mitty, Heritage, San Ramon, Carondelet, or Cardinal Newman). The committee might look at 11 losses against 4, and give Branham the #5, even though I think SI wins that game in a head-to-head matchup.
But let's say:
#5 Branham
#6 SI
The final two seeds come down to Pinewood, Crystal, and MA!
Pinewood has played a difficult schedule, and many of their early season losses were without Ava U. They are 10-5 since she started playing, with losses to Crystal, Cardinal Newman, Carondelet, St. Marys, Valley Vista, and Oakland Tech... In a weak CCS Open year, and years of history, they are in.... as long as they beat Menlo on Tuesday. If they lose, we will watch them destroy Div. 5. If Ava is able to play to start the year, they beat Uni, Riordan, and Los Altos and at the very least are 15-7.
Crystal.... is an interesting one. Easy nonleague schedule with blowout wins against a variety of schools. Just three good wins, Pinewood and two Menlo games. Just three losses, but to Summit Shasta (?) Riordan (who depending on the day can be ok) and Pinewood. Looking at MaxPreps, just three and four seasons ago... they were 2-15 and 2-16 (what happened there) If they beat Harker on Tuesday (0-9 league this year) they are in, but regardless of their MaxPreps Rating, pinewood should be ahead on Strength of Schedule over Crystal, considering they split and tied in their league. If they lose, send them back to div. 5.
MA, who finishes 22-2 and the lowest strength of the schedule of the top 9 teams by far, is sitting around waiting for an upset. If either Pinewood or Crystal loses on Tuesday, they hop in and get destroyed by the #1, and #4, and maybe play tough against Branham.