Problems (or not) with the seeds in NCS

[Norcal_Fan]

Division I
The brackets look to be pretty spot on. I thought Berkeley could have been a little higher and Well done by the seeding committee. Why is San Leando hosting Dublin even though they're at 10 seed? Are they league champs?

Division II
First 4 seeds are pretty good. 4-8 is totally questionable with any of those seeds going 4-8. The committee didn't look at common opponents, or head to head-they only looked at wins. Rancho Cotate with 20+wins in a weak league and weak schedule is an absolute joke at 6. They should have been an 8 or 9.

Division III
Salesian #1 no brainer
CN and SJND could have got either way and Eureka at 4 seems like a solid pick...again, good job.

Division IV
probably the most balanced of the divisions BUT Del Norte has a much easer time to the championship than St. Pats. Sucks for SM to travel to McKinleyville!

 

[Rocketsbasketball]

Why does San Ramon play on the road as a 3?

 

[HSfan82]

Gil Lemmon incompetence shines again. Even if he is not on selection committee he is the Commisioner..

here is the dumbest pair of seeding ever.....
Miramonte girls clearly the best D2 team who apparently are independent can’t win a league title will play AT Benicia who won their league but sport a10-16 overall record. In addition the D2 1 seed Bishop Odowd who was co-champs of WAAC(but split with SL but lost second matchup) will also travel to play a 10-16 Benecia team. So Benecia will host a doubleheader NCS game as 16 seeds... I hope Odowd and Miramonte win by 50 s o they can fix the system!

 

[ankleassassin]

Gil Lemmon incompetence shines again. Even if he is not on selection committee he is the Commisioner..

here is the dumbest pair of seeding ever.....
Miramonte girls clearly the best D2 team who apparently are independent can’t win a league title will play AT Benicia who won their league but sport a10-16 overall record. In addition the D2 1 seed Bishop Odowd who was co-champs of WAAC(but split with SL but lost second matchup) will also travel to play a 10-16 Benecia team. So Benecia will host a doubleheader NCS game as 16 seeds... I hope Odowd and Miramonte win by 50 s o they can fix the system!

so the benecia girls are playing twice in one night??? and the golden state warriors complained to the league about having to playing back to back on different nights??!?!? man up steph

 

[winetot]

St. Mary's should not even be in the tournament. They are 11-17 overall, 4-6 in league and 2-5 against d4. So it does not suck that they have to travel to McKinleyville they should be changing their shoes to track, softball or lacrosse.

 

[observer22]

St. Mary's should not even be in the tournament. They are 11-17 overall, 4-6 in league and 2-5 against d4. So it does not suck that they have to travel to McKinleyville they should be changing their shoes to track, softball or lacrosse.

Has there been a change in the eligibility criteria?

 

[personalogic]

Why does San Ramon play on the road as a 3?

Wow. A league champion and much higher seed. What do you have to do to get a home game?

 

[observer22]

Wow. A league champion and much higher seed. What do you have to do to get a home game?

It was stated earlier on another thread that Carondelet retained the EBAL league championship designation, despite not playing in the league this year. MM did not negotiate to retain their league champ designation, so they must go on the road as a top seed.

 

[ClayK]

I believe Carondelet got the automatic NCS berth in return for playing all the EBAL teams once each year.

 

[personalogic]

It was stated earlier on another thread that Carondelet retained the EBAL league championship designation, despite not playing in the league this year. MM did not negotiate to retain their league champ designation, so they must go on the road as a top seed.

Thanks for the explanation. Still sucks. The good news is that it gives me an excuse to go to a better game.

 

[Norcal_Fan]

St. Mary's should not even be in the tournament. They are 11-17 overall, 4-6 in league and 2-5 against d4. So it does not suck that they have to travel to McKinleyville they should be changing their shoes to track, softball or lacrosse.

yikes...I didn't even realize that...that's too bad. And they got a 9 seed!

 

[northbaybbguru]

St Marys Berkeley D4....

how do they qualify? good question....


Which then begs the question how in the f*** are they even in D4???

They get bumped up to D3 after a sustained level of OPEN caliber greatness in D4....they then proceed to go to the Nor Cal D3 final (that same season they get bumped up...losing to Campo) and THE VERY NEXT SEASON GET MOVED BACK TO D4!!!

Has the NCS office ever explained that head scratching rationale?

 

[winetot]

Guru - if they were D2 they would have qualified. They were 6-1 versus Division 2. Maybe you only have to be .500 against any division to qualify. I did notice, until just now, that MaxPreps had St. Mary's Stockton's profile in the NCS section which showed over 500 in league and overall. I guess it's possible they went to the NCS office on Friday and won the coin flip.

 

[colhenrylives]

Gil Lemmon incompetence shines again. Even if he is not on selection committee he is the Commisioner..

here is the dumbest pair of seeding ever.....
Miramonte girls clearly the best D2 team who apparently are independent can’t win a league title will play AT Benicia who won their league but sport a10-16 overall record. In addition the D2 1 seed Bishop Odowd who was co-champs of WAAC(but split with SL but lost second matchup) will also travel to play a 10-16 Benecia team. So Benecia will host a doubleheader NCS game as 16 seeds... I hope Odowd and Miramonte win by 50 s o they can fix the system!

Benicia now gets to host a demolition derby so that the home folks can watch an utter hoops calamity unfolding before their eyes. Yes, there are pluses and minuses to hosting. Be careful what you wish for.

 

[observer22]

Guru - if they were D2 they would have qualified. They were 6-1 versus Division 2. Maybe you only have to be .500 against any division to qualify. I did notice, until just now, that MaxPreps had St. Mary's Stockton's profile in the NCS section which showed over 500 in league and overall. I guess it's possible they went to the NCS office on Friday and won the coin flip.

Winetot, I’m not following. How does St. Mary’s Stockton even have an NCS profile? Did you mean SMB? And how could a profile of SMB show over .500 in league when MaxPreps shows 4-6? Is that not accurate?

 

[winetot]

Winetot, I’m not following. How does St. Mary’s Stockton even have an NCS profile? Did you mean SMB? And how could a profile of SMB show over .500 in league when MaxPreps shows 4-6? Is that not accurate?

 

[winetot]

I was trying to figure out how SMB qualified so I went into Maxpreps, earlier today, into the North Coast section. All the schools in NCS are listed, so I clicked on St. Mary's. It brought up St. Mary's Stockton, not SMB. Then I went into St. Mary's Stockton schedule, who played SMB, clicked on SMB and then their team page came up. So I do not know why, St. Mary's Stockton was in the NCS section but they were.

 

[observer22]

I was trying to figure out how SMB qualified so I went into Maxpreps, earlier today, into the North Coast section. All the schools in NCS are listed, so I clicked on St. Mary's. It brought up St. Mary's Stockton, not SMB. Then I went into St. Mary's Stockton schedule, who played SMB, clicked on SMB and then their team page came up. So I do not know why, St. Mary's Stockton was in the NCS section but they were.

Strange. I sure hope the committee didn't confuse SMB's record with SMS.

 

[Norcal_Fan]

Gil Lemmon incompetence shines again. Even if he is not on selection committee he is the Commisioner..

here is the dumbest pair of seeding ever.....
Miramonte girls clearly the best D2 team who apparently are independent can’t win a league title will play AT Benicia who won their league but sport a10-16 overall record. In addition the D2 1 seed Bishop Odowd who was co-champs of WAAC(but split with SL but lost second matchup) will also travel to play a 10-16 Benecia team. So Benecia will host a doubleheader NCS game as 16 seeds... I hope Odowd and Miramonte win by 50 s o they can fix the system!

They will NEVER fix the system. The committees are made up of AD's that have NO clue about NCS basketball, let alone girls basketball. I wouldn't be surprised that they just looked at the maxpreps rankings and went off that. Do they still have people going to games that are on these committees?

In D1, Berkeley kinda got hosed with an 11 seed even though they have 19 wins and a stronger strength of schedule than American, Mission, and James logan. Dublin beat Logan and Logan also split with Mission. Common opponents...so how does that allow mission to be ranked over Dublin?

In D2, Alameda had beaten common opponents with Redwood and Rancho Cotate (both league champs but both lost vs. common opponents) and was placed in front of them. Do league champions make that big of a difference? And then you have the three league champs in Acalanes, Redwood and Rancho. How did they come up with Acalanes being 4 and jumping over redwood?

In D3, Kennedy won 23 games BUT didn't play anyone, won league and has a strength of schedule of -1.6. Yet they're above Encinal, San Marin and Alhambra (that also beat Acalanes who's seeded 4th in D2).

In D4, it's too bad that SJND plays in such a weak conference. They had a HIGH Strength of schedule before league play. which bumped them to 3. How SMB got a 9 seed with losing records in all three categories is beyond me.

I'm aware that no committee gets it 100% right, but they really made some missteps here. What the committee is saying is screw strength of schedule, what matters is overall record and league champions, even if the league is horrible.

 

[Openlooks]

The NCS has sent a message about value of league play vs. SOS.

 

[straightline50]

The NCS has sent a message about value of league play vs. SOS.

don't they split leagues up in good divisions and bad divisions now?

 

[Norcal_Fan]

don't they split leagues up in good divisions and bad divisions now?

It seems that way...lol

 

[observer22]

don't they split leagues up in good divisions and bad divisions now?

Yes, that’s why even though Benicia was a league champion in both girls and boys, they are #16 seeds in both. League champ designation gets you a berth in the playoffs and a home game if you happen to be matched up with a non league champ, but they do look at the quality of the league. At least they did in Benicia’s case.

 

[ClayK]

First, I believe the committee is not made up of ADs, but rather a specific group of individuals with a background in girls' basketball. Of course, if NCS released their names it would make things much more transparent.

D1: Mission San Jose has a higher computer ranking than Dublin, and is one spot higher. Logan is one spot lower. A case could be made to reverse the order, but this does not seem egregious given that MSJ beat Monte Vista by 20 and Dublin beat Monte Vista by 5.

D2: Alameda is a perplexing team, and lost to Acalanes head-to-head. Alameda also has a lower computer ranking than both Redwood and Acalanes, plus a loss to 8-18 Castro Valley. And then there's the 20-point loss to 13-9 Encinal. Again, a case could be made both ways.

D3: Kennedy is ranked slightly ahead of the three teams you mention on MaxPreps, and despite having no good wins, has only one "bad" loss, to Antioch. Encinal just lost to Hayward, and Alhambra lost to Kennedy by 13 earlier this year. I could see San Marin being seeded ahead of them, but again it's the difference between 7 and 9.

I still don't understand the SMB situation, either how they got back down to D4 (which was the right decision, I thought, but didn't fit in the protocol) or how they qualified (though presumably there is a reason).

 

[LBJ6]

I think committee did a pretty good job in D1. Only upset I see is Berkeley over MSJ. Amador American should also be an amazing game. That could go either way. Who wins that one? San Leandro and Vintage getting home games made this bracket tough to seed.

D2: This bracket will have at least 4 to 5 30 plus point blowouts. But overall I thought they did fine. MM over O dowd at Saint Marys.

D3: Saint Joseph Notre Dame's awful awful awful league lost them a home game against Cardinal Newman ( SOS). That will be an amazing game. Looking forward to the Salesian Cardinal Newman rematch.

D4: I thought Marin Catholic was way over seeded. I'd Go Swett or Piedmont over them head to head. Going to Rock with the 5 seed Piedmont to shock the world and win this bracket. Saint Mary's could upset SPSV in the second round. This is quietly the most competitive brackets as 1-5 could all win section including number 9 Saint Marys.

 

[Norcal_Fan]

First, I believe the committee is not made up of ADs, but rather a specific group of individuals with a background in girls' basketball. Of course, if NCS released their names it would make things much more transparent.

D1: Mission San Jose has a higher computer ranking than Dublin, and is one spot higher. Logan is one spot lower. A case could be made to reverse the order, but this does not seem egregious given that MSJ beat Monte Vista by 20 and Dublin beat Monte Vista by 5.

D2: Alameda is a perplexing team, and lost to Acalanes head-to-head. Alameda also has a lower computer ranking than both Redwood and Acalanes, plus a loss to 8-18 Castro Valley. And then there's the 20-point loss to 13-9 Encinal. Again, a case could be made both ways.

D3: Kennedy is ranked slightly ahead of the three teams you mention on MaxPreps, and despite having no good wins, has only one "bad" loss, to Antioch. Encinal just lost to Hayward, and Alhambra lost to Kennedy by 13 earlier this year. I could see San Marin being seeded ahead of them, but again it's the difference between 7 and 9.

I still don't understand the SMB situation, either how they got back down to D4 (which was the right decision, I thought, but didn't fit in the protocol) or how they qualified (though presumably there is a reason).

I personally know 2 AD's that are on the committee for D2, 4, 5 and 6. Not sure how many others there are...I just assumed it was AD's. As for the rankings, they're not going to get it right every time. Maybe you know why they changed the format from being a public (coaches talked), coaches forum to a private non-transparent one?

Basically what this committee/NCS is saying is pad your schedule and you will be rewarded.

 

[ClayK]

Or they're saying get your computer rating as high as possible, which includes strength of schedule.

I thought the NCS had one committee for all divisions of girls, and it was made up of former coaches or people familiar with the girls' side. If you know the ADs involved, though, you know more than me, and you know if they know the girls' teams.

 

[norcalbasketball]

Gil Lemmon incompetence shines again. Even if he is not on selection committee he is the Commisioner..

here is the dumbest pair of seeding ever.....
Miramonte girls clearly the best D2 team who apparently are independent can’t win a league title will play AT Benicia who won their league but sport a10-16 overall record. In addition the D2 1 seed Bishop Odowd who was co-champs of WAAC(but split with SL but lost second matchup) will also travel to play a 10-16 Benecia team. So Benecia will host a doubleheader NCS game as 16 seeds... I hope Odowd and Miramonte win by 50 s o they can fix the system!

The system is so flawed it's ridiculous. SPSV boys have had to go on the road to Gateway as a 2 seed multiple times in the past 5 years as well

 

[Norcal_Fan]

Or they're saying get your computer rating as high as possible, which includes strength of schedule.

I thought the NCS had one committee for all divisions of girls, and it was made up of former coaches or people familiar with the girls' side. If you know the ADs involved, though, you know more than me, and you know if they know the girls' teams.

I just know two AD's on the committee. Not sure if they do boys or girls or both! I did know someone who was one of the people who would go to games and watch team but that was 5-10 years ago. not sure if he does it anymore.

For teams like MM or BOD, it's easy to get your computer rankings up because you have the players to do so. For everyone playing for second place (lets face it, MM will win D2 and win big) how do you put yourself in the best position NOT to play MM or BOD? The rest of the teams 3-8 are fairly even with some better than other and some presenting match up problems.

 

[ClayK]

The whole computer ranking thing is tricky ... you need to play good teams to boost your ranking, but if the teams are too good you lose and your ranking goes down.

Scheduling is a big, big part of coaching for teams that want to do well in postseason -- especially if your league is really weak. SJND is a great example, as both the boys and girls would love to be out of the BCL-East (as would their opponents), but in most of the other sports, the league is a good fit. So SJND must play a really strong non-league schedule to balance out the really weak league schedule.

 

[observer22]

I just read where Monte Vista appealed to Gil Lemmon, arguing that they should have gotten the 16 seed in D1 ahead of Pitt, who the committee had as the 16 seed to play CLet.

Lemmon agreed with MV and overruled the committee today, removing Pitt from the playoffs and placing MV in as the 16 seed. So evidently he has the final say on all seeding issues.

It’s in this article, below the boys article on Kennedy, under the heading Pittsburg Girls Get Bad News:

https://www.eastbaytimes.com/2019/0...nnedy-feels-about-facing-state-no-1-salesian/

 

[HSfan82]

so the benecia girls are playing twice in one night??? and the golden state warriors complained to the league about having to playing back to back on different nights??!?!? man up steph

huh?? no girls play Miramonte and boys play Odowd. That will end the season for Benecia.

 

[winetot]

I’m assuming maxpreps ratings had all to do with it originally. Napa High beat Alhambra, who beat Acalanes and beat St Bernard’s who Freedom lost to in their only common opponents. So in theory Napa should have been over Freedom, Monte vista and Pittsburg but their maxpreps rating was not as high. The VVAL is a new league and will need to really look at pre season scheduling in future because all the teams had low maxpreps ratings and suffered regardless of common opponents in both boys and girls.

 

[ClayK]

Very odd decision to overrule the committee -- it does look like they got it wrong, and it well could be that Division I was the last bracket they did, so fatigue might have set in by the time they got to the 16th girls' seed.

So what would you do in Gil's shoes? Acknowledge that the committee was wrong and disappoint Pittsburg, or go with what is pretty clearly the incorrect choice?

A very tough call, at least from my point of view ...

 

[Paytc]

Very odd decision to overrule the committee -- it does look like they got it wrong, and it well could be that Division I was the last bracket they did, so fatigue might have set in by the time they got to the 16th girls' seed.

So what would you do in Gil's shoes? Acknowledge that the committee was wrong and disappoint Pittsburg, or go with what is pretty clearly the incorrect choice?

A very tough call, at least from my point of view ...

A quick Pittsburg vs Monte Vista matchup with the winner to play @ Carondelet. That way not just Carondelet gets a chance at a victory in the first round which is not always a sure shot regardless.

 

[winetot]

Clay - What would you do if you were Napa , who should clearly be ahead of Freedom? In my opinion the NCS needs to go back to closed meetings with coaches for seeding. They, obviously, are not looking at anything the coaches are submitting and are absolutely using maxpreps ratings as their crutch. Which is unfortunate for those of us that aren’t top 4 in any division.

 

[ClayK]

Freedom has a higher computer ranking, so that would make any complaint tough to sustain ...

I do see one common opponent, which Napa beat and Freedom didn't, but otherwise I don't see a compelling case.

But I could be missing something ... it appears to be six of one, half a dozen of the other.

 

[straightline50]

Very odd decision to overrule the committee -- it does look like they got it wrong, and it well could be that Division I was the last bracket they did, so fatigue might have set in by the time they got to the 16th girls' seed.

So what would you do in Gil's shoes? Acknowledge that the committee was wrong and disappoint Pittsburg, or go with what is pretty clearly the incorrect choice?

A very tough call, at least from my point of view ...

Excuses. Brackets were posted with Division 1 going first. Fatigue not an issue.

 

[winetot]

Freedom has a higher computer ranking, so that would make any complaint tough to sustain ...

I do see one common opponent, which Napa beat and Freedom didn't, but otherwise I don't see a compelling case.

But I could be missing something ... it appears to be six of one, half a dozen of the other.

Isn’t that a compelling case? Napa beat a team Freedom lost to. To just rely on the computer ratings is lazy in my opinion. With your logic. Congratulations. Miramonte has made the open regardless of the outcome of the next 2 weeks.

 

[ClayK]

I'm not sure whether I would have favored common opponents over computer ranking, but in most of the cases that have been mentioned so far, the committee appears to have favored the computer ranking.

That may or may not be lazy, depending on how you value the computer rankings. (As should be clear to those who see my national rankings, I am not tied to the MaxPreps' rankings when it comes to comparing teams from different states, though I do think they are more accurate (though far from perfect) when it comes to comparing teams from the same state.)

As for the Miramonte comment, we are certain to be in the Open if we win NCS D-2. What the NorCal committee will do if we lose along the way is unclear, but generally section champions get the call.

I do have to ask, though: Why did you bring Miramonte and its Open possibilities into a conversation about Freedom and Napa? I hesitate to say this for fear of stoking the fire, but don't you think you could maybe let that obsession/focus/whatever-you-want-to-call-it go?