One assumption: The North and South Opens will have equal numbers of teams. If they don't, given the fact there are more schools in the South, it would seem reasonable that if either area had more teams in the Open, it would be the South.
First question: Clovis West. A very strong team with a win over Folsom that could go North or South.
I think the answer to that lies in the South, which has four strong teams and then a serious dropoff.
Sierra Canyon, La Jolla Country Day, Etiwanda and Mater Dei are all clear Open teams. After that, though, there are issues. The two teams fourth and fifth in the SoCal coaches' poll are Santiago and Sage Hill, with 15 losses between them and no wins over top teams. The second best team in San Diego is Westview, which isn't even winning its league. LA City's Westchester is 24-1, but lost to Bonita Vista and has played no one.
So if the goal is to only have teams in the Open that have a chance to win, it seems like there are only four SoCal teams that qualify -- which is why I think Clovis West goes South, to make five. (The sixth spot is still a problem, but Westchester wouldn't be a bad call if they finish with one loss.)
Put Clovis West in the South, then.
Does that work for the North? Yes, because then there are six solid candidates:
Piedmont, Mitty, St. Mary's of Stockton, Folsom, Oakland Tech and the North Coast Section champion.
Of course you could add the CCS and NCS runner-ups to get to a solid eight, but then NorCal has two more teams in the Open, and two fewer quality teams in the lower brackets than SoCal. This way, the North is all section champs except either Folsom or SMS.
If you go seven and SHC is the CCS runner-up, it depends on who wins NCS and who's second. The wins over Carondelet, Acalanes and SRV would make SHC the seventh, but if Salesian finished second in NCS, it would go to Salesian.
To get to seven in SoCal, you're adding a seven-loss team or Westview or maybe Clovis (which has two bad losses).
Comments?
