That analysis is spot-on. One caveat: Those two very close Aptos losses to solid teams would indicate that the Mariners are right on the cusp of a top ten rating. But, again, those were losses. We can't change the facts.
I think it is hard to say that the preseason calpreps rankings were too low for the Gabilan teams when Aptos started the year ranked #6 and Salinas was ranked #8. Aptos had a preseason ranking above Serra. Do you really think they deserved to be ranked higher? Their non-league performances showed they were over ranked, not under ranked to start the season.
It will be exceptionally difficult for all three teams to reach the top 10 as they all play each other and will all either go 1-1 against each other or will end up with one team 2-0, one team 1-1 and one team 0-2. I don't see any of these teams with 2 more losses moving into the top 10 and if they split their games it will keep them about where they are.
The league went 10-14 in their non-league schedule, going 5-10 against other A level opponents, 4-4 against B level teams and 1-0 against C teams. Calpreps ranked the league behind the WCAL, Deanza, and PAL-Bay and just ahead of the PAL-Ocean for the season so far. Given that there is minimal out of league games left this equation usually doesn't change again until after the play-offs. It is very hard for the 4th ranked league to end up with 3 top ten teams. There was one signature win (Palma beating Oakdale who is #129 in state). The next best win for the league was Aptos and Palma beating SHC which is currently ranked #428 in the state.
For the top Gabilan teams to see an elevation in their rankings they are going to need to see their non-league opponents shine for the rest of the season. For example if SHC ends up in 4th or 5th place in the WCAL their rating will rise dramatically. Similarly it will help if teams like Mitty, Clovis, Newport Harbor finish much higher than currently projected in their difficult leagues.
Finally, teams ahead of Gabilan teams are going to need to under perform during league season. In the end, I think it will be likely that the top Gabilan team will be ranked anywhere between 8-11 and the second third place teams will likely finish between 11 and 20 in the next ten.
I think Calpreps rating were too low for CCS in general. The WCAL teams at top seemed to start lower than last season at the top (some warranted e.g. SF). Related to these teams I just look at what they have and it is subjective but Calpreps penalized them in the beginning and due to league strength at lower teams (Carmel not as good as last season but good small school and Hollister probably not as good, and rest relatively low strength). With new playoff changes, the format looks like it will penalize some of the smaller teams in the league. I still think these teams are as good as 6-12. Wilcox should take Los Gatos which didn't have a very strong nonleague. Wilcox is probably way too low and maybe the 3rd or 4th top team in the section - they lost to Pitt but probably win 6 out of 10 times if they have their top player in the game who is a huge impact player/I think it is hard to say that the preseason calpreps rankings were too low for the Gabilan teams when Aptos started the year ranked #6 and Salinas was ranked #8. Aptos had a preseason ranking above Serra. Do you really think they deserved to be ranked higher? Their non-league performances showed they were over ranked, not under ranked to start the season.
It will be exceptionally difficult for all three teams to reach the top 10 as they all play each other and will all either go 1-1 against each other or will end up with one team 2-0, one team 1-1 and one team 0-2. I don't see any of these teams with 2 more losses moving into the top 10 and if they split their games it will keep them about where they are.
The league went 10-14 in their non-league schedule, going 5-10 against other A level opponents, 4-4 against B level teams and 1-0 against C teams. Calpreps ranked the league behind the WCAL, Deanza, and PAL-Bay and just ahead of the PAL-Ocean for the season so far. Given that there is minimal out of league games left this equation usually doesn't change again until after the play-offs. It is very hard for the 4th ranked league to end up with 3 top ten teams. There was one signature win (Palma beating Oakdale who is #129 in state). The next best win for the league was Aptos and Palma beating SHC which is currently ranked #428 in the state.
For the top Gabilan teams to see an elevation in their rankings they are going to need to see their non-league opponents shine for the rest of the season. For example if SHC ends up in 4th or 5th place in the WCAL their rating will rise dramatically. Similarly it will help if teams like Mitty, Clovis, Newport Harbor finish much higher than currently projected in their difficult leagues.
Finally, teams ahead of Gabilan teams are going to need to under perform during league season. In the end, I think it will be likely that the top Gabilan team will be ranked anywhere between 8-11 and the second third place teams will likely finish between 11 and 20 in the next ten.
I love anyone that supports their team fervently. I do. Salinas scored with less than a minute to go to reduce the margin of victory from 31 to 24. That’s not competitive in anyone’s book
Ah. The personal insult argument. Well doneClovis scored with 95 seconds left instead of taking a knee. Salinas answered... and quickly.
But, feel free to continue to display your ignorance, since you don’t know what actually happened in the game.
What is the reasoning for the additional 40 points to the number one seed and etc. ?The point formula for the CCS became even more complicated this year. There are 4 basic point categories.
1. Wins - you get 2 points for every win.
2. Schedule - You get 1 point for every A team you play, 0.5 points for every B team you play and 0 points for every C team you play.
A. In Section Games - When you play a CCS team their designation of an A team, B team or C team is designated by league. Any team that is a member of the the Deanza, Mt. Hamilton, PAL-Bay, Gabilan or WCAL is an A team whether it is Serra or Gilroy. The five B team leagues are the El Camino, PAL-Ocean, Cypress, Mission and Santa Teresa, the three C team leagues are West Valley, PAL-Lake and Santa Lucia.
B. Out of Section games - If the teams final calpreps rating is above 8 they are an A team, if their rating is between 8 and -20 they are a B team and if there rating is less than -20 they are a C team. This is based on the ratings an hour prior to the seeding committeee meeting at season's end so an opponents rating could change as the season progresses.
3. Bonus Points. There are several ways to achieve bonus points.
A. Playing a league champion - you get 1 point if you played a league champion (0.5 points for playing a co-champion and 0.333 for playing a tri-champion). Everyone in a league who is not a league champion achieves 1 point for this. This is regardless of the league level.
B. Winning a league championship - you get 2.5 points if you win an A league, 2 points if you win a B league and 1.5 points if you win a C league. These pints are split accordingly if there are co or tri champions.
C. Two additional bonus points for playing an opponent that is ranked as one of the top 100 teams in CA by Calpreps at year end. Right now there are four CCS tams in the state top 100 (Serra, VC, St. Francis and Los Gatos). Every team that plays them gets two bonus points if they end the year in the top 100. This applies to non-CCS opponents. Right now CCS teams have collectively played 12 teams rated in the state top 100 (for out of state teams like East of Utah you look at their Calprep rating and see if it would place them in the top 100 in CA.
D. One additional bonus point for playing a team rated between 101-150 in the final Calprep state rankings. Right now Wilcox, Half Moon Bay, Mitty, Menlo-Atherton and Saint Ignatius are ranked between 101-150 and each of their opponents gets one extra point. There are also out of section teams that CCS teams have played that fall into this category.
4. Norcal Prep rating
Once the field of 40 teams is selected for the play-offs (33 automatic qualifiers plus 7 at-large), the teams are stacked from top to bottom based on their Calprep rating. The top team (currently, Serra) receives 40 additional points, the next team (currently VC) gets 39, etc.
The final point title is the addition of all these elements. Once people have their total points the teams that are the top 8 in total points are in Division I, the next 8 in Division II, etc.. The only other important thing to note is that a single league (like the SCAL or Gabilan) is limited to no more than 6 teams making the play-offs. If there are no head ot head or common opponent tie-breakers the team with the highest Calpreps ranking wins a tie-breaker.
Much more complicated system to track this year and it keeps changing as out of section opponents ratings change and which teams are in the top 100 or top 150 change.
What is the reasoning for the additional 40 points to the number one seed and etc. ?
Week 6 Preview
Deanza - Big week in the Deanza as Los Gatos travels to Wilcox in a game that will likely decide the league championship. Calpreps projects a 9 point Los Gatos win but I think these teams are pretty evenly matched and would be surprised if the score isn't closer. Another important game has an undefeated Mountain View traveling to Milpitas with Mountain View listed as an 11 point favorite. This game is likely to determine the fourth automatic bid from the league and Milpitas is unlikely to make the play-offs with a loss (Mountain View is in good shape to get an at-large berth as a 5th place team).
Gabilan - The only interesting game here is between Aptos and Carmel with the winner likely to be in the top 4 and gain an automatic berth and the loser looking at having to gain an at-large berth.
WCAL - The closest game is projected to be a 21 point victory. Big surprise if Serra, VC, St. Francis and Mitty don't all win by more than one score.
PAL-Bay - League play starts this week for four of the six teams with Burlingame and SHP big favorites over Aragon and Terra Nova.
Mt.Hamilton - A fair amount of parity in this league which is by far the weakest of the 5 A leagues. Lincoln and Leland play tonight a battle between two upper division teams. The more important game for the play-offs will be the Santa Teresa vs Piedmont Hills game. With a win Santa Teresa will almost certainly wrap up a 5th place finish or better (since Lincoln doesn't participate int he play-offs, the 5th place team gets an automatic bid). A Piedmont Hills win will put them in the driver's seat for 5th place.
PAL-Ocean - Half Moon Bay plays one of the two top threats for the league title (Carlmont is the other) when they square off against undefeated San Mateo.
Cyprus - The top two ranked teams int he league face-off as undefeated Soquel plays at North Monterey County. The winner will have a leg up on the league's only automatic bid.
Mission - Monte Vista Christian and Monterey are the second and third ranked teams in this league which has three automatic berths. They play each other this week,
El Camino - Saratoga faces off against the highest ranked team in their league Monta Vista and are a 30 point favorite.
Santa Teresa - The only game that is projected within one score this week is Overfelt and Silver Creek which are both 1-0 in league play.
West Valley - Two of the leagues top three teams square off as Gunderson is a five point favorite over Mt. Pleasant.
Santa Lucia - not much of interest here as Pacific Grove is a strong favorite to win the league and plays a weak Harbor team this week as a 28 point favorite.
PAL-Lake - no games this week - all teams have a bye and start league play next week.
Regarding the PAL-Lake, it might be worth noting that two of the six teams in this C league are in danger of being unable to finish out the season. Both winless Woodside (which forfeited last week) and winless South San Francisco (allowing 56 points per game) are operating with extremely thin rosters. Even their JV teams are shaky (SSF forfeited last week). A third Laker, El Camino, is also in bad shape. But both Woodside and SSF appear to be on life support at this point.
Regarding the PAL-Lake, it might be worth noting that two of the six teams in this C league are in danger of being unable to finish out the season. Both winless Woodside (which forfeited last week) and winless South San Francisco (allowing 56 points per game) are operating with extremely thin rosters. Even their JV teams are shaky (SSF forfeited last week). A third Laker, El Camino, is also in bad shape. But both Woodside and SSF appear to be on life support at this point.
El Camino will not quit tho. Not a great program by any means but if there is one program who will always play hard and fight you tooth and nail, it's the Colts.
...or, for that matter, Riordan or Serra...
I really hope either EC or SSF benefits and it will be sooner than later. This season is lost. At the molasses pace of school districts I hope this issue is being discussed now for the sake of these kids.I wonder if EC will end up the beneficiary of SSF demise? Maybe kids find ways to gravitate over there for football the way Gunn kids do to Paly or Saratoga kids to LG?
I wonder if EC will end up the beneficiary of SSF demise? Maybe kids find ways to gravitate over there for football the way Gunn kids do to Paly or Saratoga kids to LG?
The CCS has recognized these games as forfeits and as a win as part of a 10 game schedule for the opponent. There have been other forfeits that I am aware of this year. St. Francis of Watsonville forfeited a game to Watsonville, Woodside had an in game forfeit to Seaside adn the forfeited their next game to Burlingame. These teams should list the game as a win in their season ending report to CCS for seeding.PalBooster-
How is CCS treating the Gilroy cancellations? On Cal preps it shows the most of the Gabilan teams playing a 9 game season, and the one league game they did play vs Alvarez being treated as a non-League.
Will the reaming teams be given a forfeit win? I suspect that the either Alvarez or Carmel (potential 5th place teams) will be battling for an at large berth.
When it comes to state bowl games how is it determined which bowl games teams are put into? What does the divisions and whether they are A or AA mean? Is it based on a combination of CBED and Calpreps ranking?Four organizations have put out some form of preseason rankings that include CCS schools. The Bay Area News Group has a top 25 ranking the includes only CCS, NCS schools, Oakland and SF . Norcalpreps has a top 20 ranking that also includes SJS and Northern section schools. CalHi does state wide rankings, and Calpreps ranks teams on a statewide and national basis.
Remember that the Calprep rankings will be a large component of how teams are selected for the CCS play-offs and how they are seeded for the play-offs. The top 8 CCS teams at the end of the year will square of in the CCS Division I Play-offs. Here are the different pre-season polls.
Cal Preps
School CCS Norcal State
Valley Christian 1 5 30
Menlo-Atherton 2 7 42
Wilcox 3 16 70
St. Francis 4 24 88
Mitty 5 29 97
Aptos 6 32 108
Serra 7 38 128
Salinas 8 42 139
Palo Alto 9 44 143
Burlingame 10 45 147
CalHi
School CCS Norcal State
Valley Christian 1 4 17
Menlo-Atherton 2 6 27
Serra 3 8 30
Wilcox 4 9 36
St. Francis 5 15 50
Mitty 6 16-25 51-70*
* only CCS team of 20 teams mentioned on bubble for CalHi ranking
Norcalpreps
School CCS Norcal
Valley Christian 1 4
Serra 2 5
Menlo-Atherton 3 6
St. Francis 4 9
Wilcox 5 13
Bay Area News Group/San Jose Mercury
School CCS CCS/NCS/Oakland/SF
Valley Christian 1 3
Serra 2 4
Menlo-Atherton 3 5
Wilcox 4 8
St. Francis 5 10
Mitty 6 17
Salinas 7 19
Sacred Heart Prep 8 21
Aptos 9 22
Palo Alto 10 23
Burlingame 11 24
In terms of the 5 A leagues, the WCAL and Gabilan are covered well in other threads that have already been posted.
The other 3 A leagues are the Deanza, PAL-Bay and Mt. Hamilton.
Deanza - Not a lot on the board posted about Wilcox who went 14-1 last year beating Valley Christian and winning a norcal and state bowl game. Their only loss was a close section final loss to Menlo-Atherton. Last year's team was very balanced between the junior and senior classes. Wilcox lost a lot but also returns a lot (leading rusher, half of their starting lines and half of the leading tacklers from a very good defense). Probably not quite as strong as last year, but are favored to win their league again. All the pre-season polls have Palo Alto second and on the fence between being in Division I and II in the play-offs. No love for Los Gatos in the polls, but it worth noting that they have the number 1 or 2 top ranked CCS college prospect (some list USC commit Los Gatos' OL Dewerk #1 and some have VC's Moon as #1) in the class of 2020 and the consensus # 2 class of 2021 CCS college prospect (DE Schweitzer) with a solid coaching staff and team and they could challenge Palo Alto for the second spot. Milpitas still seems to be below their top historical levels.
PAL-Bay - Menlo-Atherton is the prohibitive favorite but Burlingame and Sacred Heart Prep figure to compete for second place and might grab a lower spot int he Division I Play-off. Menlo-Atherton has two key players out for the first part of the season. Raymond Price who was SHP's starting QB as a sophomore and led them to a CCS final will be ineligible for the first four games and Andre Bishop who transferred from St. Francis and was one the WCAL's leading running backs last year is injured and will miss at least the first half of the season. With these two players potentially joining the team for the second half of the year, Menlo-Atherton may look different come play-off time than they did in the preseason.
Mt. Hamilton - Looks to be a three team race between Live Oak, Oak Grove and Leland. This league really had no impressive non-conference wins last year and haven't scheduled too many tough pre-season games that will boost their standing in the cal preps rankings which weights strength of schedule fairly heavily. Live Oak plays Burlingame, Christopher and Gilroy; Oak Grove plays St. Francis, Los Gatos and Oakland Tech while Leland plays Wilcox, Los Gatos and Aragon.
For one of these teams to have a chance at the top play-off division they will likely need to finish their pre-season at least 2-1 if not 3-0.
Division I based on pre-season consensus is predicted to be the top 4 WCAL schools (VC, SF, Serra, Mitty), Menlo-Atheron, and Wilcox. The final two spots are likely to go to the Gabilan champion (Salinas, Aptos and maybe Palma) and then the runner-up from the Pal-Bay (SHP/Burlingame) runner-up in the Gabilan or runner-up in the Deanza (Palo Alto/Los Gatos)
It looked like the Calpreps rankings made a huge impact on the placement last year but that's only at a glance. With the playoff changes in the North this year we won't send any section losers to NorCal games....so it roughly bumps everyone up a level if Liberty(Brentwood) loses to DLS and doesn't get a D1AA bid.
Open-DLS
D1AA-Central (Fresno) vs. Folsom/VC/Serra
D1A-Folsom/VC/Serra vs. SJS D2
D2AA-CCS D2 vs. CS D2???
or some version of that. If the VC Serra section winner is higher rated than
Folsom, we could see a Central vs. VC/Serra and drop Folsom to D1A. Now if that happens will they play the SJS D1 winner Folsom vs. SJS D2 winner? If that SJS D2 winner is in fact higher rated on Calpreps than any other remaining team? Mac is rated very high right now on Calpreps...Do they get bumped up or does their enrollment play a factor?
When it comes to state bowl games how is it determined which bowl games teams are put into? What does the divisions and whether they are A or AA mean? Is it based on a combination of CBED and Calpreps ranking?
While teams like Liberty & Pitt won’t get an invite this year (or ever again) unless they beat DLS, the NCS did add a new division 7 and really cut down on the number of teams in D1 (where DLS lives).
Thus, the NCS has in effect beefed up all the lower divisions so they should be sending quality reps in the lower divisions. For example:
D2: CVC/Campo
D3: Las Lomas/Rancho Cotate
D4: Cardinal Newman/Marin Catholic