CCS Final Top 10 and year in Review

[PALbooster]

Trying to get some clarification: on points: Say a team trying to get "on the bubble" plays a top 150 or top 100 team. They beat that team. Do they get points based on the ranking before that game or after? Obviously that ranking drops significantly with a loss. Would it possibly be calculated at the section meeting, so after the fact?

A couple of clarifying points.

1. If you play a top 100 or top 150 team you get bonus points regardless of if you win or lose. Any win over any opponent is worth two points and a lose if worth 0 points. You get two bonus points for playing a top 100 team and 1 bonus point for playing a team ranked between 101 and 150. It doesn't matter what their ranking was when you played them. All that matters is the ranking an hour before the seeding meeting which I believe is at 10 AM on Sunday November 10th. If you played a team that was in the top 100 when you played them but by the end of the season is 151 you get 0 bonus points.

2. You get 1 scheduling point for playing an A team which is defined in the CCS by being a team in a A league regardless of their Calprep ranking or playing a non-CCS team with a ranking of 8.0 or higher (7.9- -19.9 is a B team and -20 or higher is a C team).

 

[PALbooster]

PAL Booster,

Awesome work as always. I have a question though. How is Mills projected to have 28 power points? I'm trying to add up the math for them and cannot get anywhere near 28. This is huge because I've seen them ranked as high as #1 in Division V and as low as #8 in Division IV which is going to be a gauntlet!

9 wins x 2 = 18
3 games vs. "B" League opponents = 1.5
Add 1.5 points for being "C" league Champion = 1.5

I'm seeing 21 points, best case scenario.

Mills gets 21 CCS points and you did the math correctly. The second part of the equation is they get 7 points from their NorCal prep rating which says they are the 34th of the 40 teams in the pay-offs. The top rated team gets 40 points added to their CCS total the second rated team gets 39 points added, all the way to the 40th rated team which gets one point added to their CCS total. The other 7 points for Mills are based on their norcal rating vs other teams in the field. The field will be seeded by the total number from these two scores.

 

[LecheDeMiPalo]

Mills gets 21 CCS points and you did the math correctly. The second part of the equation is they get 7 points from their NorCal prep rating which says they are the 34th of the 40 teams in the pay-offs. The top rated team gets 40 points added to their CCS total the second rated team gets 39 points added, all the way to the 40th rated team which gets one point added to their CCS total. The other 7 points for Mills are based on their norcal rating vs other teams in the field. The field will be seeded by the total number from these two scores.

Got it.

But those points only come after they've been seeded, no?

 

[PALbooster]

PALb please help. Where does Carmel go if Alvarez wins the next two and Carmel loses to Alvarez?

IF Carmel losses to Alvarez I have them projected at 21.5 points. (5 wins for 10 points, 8.5 schedule points and 3 bonus points for playing league champions Salinas (or whoever wins the Gabilan), Pacific Grove, and Templeton. This would put them in the At-large pool and I believe they will ranked high enough that they would easily be one of the top 7 at-large teams.

If Alvarez wins their last two games they end up at a projected 19.5 points (5 wins 8.5 schedule points and 1 point for playing the Gabilan champion). Right now I have the at-large pool of 10 teams with a cut off at 20 points so Alvarez with two wins still would not be considered for an at-large. Even if they make the top 10 for consideration they might struggle to make the top seven required to make the play-offs.

Right now counting all CCS teams - Carmel is ranked 22nd and Alvarez is ranked 44th. If Alverez upsets Carmel Carmel's ranking would go down and Alvarez would go up but I doubt Alvarez rnakeing would overtake Carmel (Carmel is still ranked below San Benito this eek despite the result of the 41-14 Carmel win over San Benito).

I think Carmel that almost no matter what happens the last two weeks and Alvarez is out. There are a few far fetched fringe scenarios that would have to happen for this not to be true.

 

[FBAddict]

IF Carmel losses to Alvarez I have them projected at 21.5 points. (5 wins for 10 points, 8.5 schedule points and 3 bonus points for playing league champions Salinas (or whoever wins the Gabilan), Pacific Grove, and Templeton. This would put them in the At-large pool and I believe they will ranked high enough that they would easily be one of the top 7 at-large teams.

If Alvarez wins their last two games they end up at a projected 19.5 points (5 wins 8.5 schedule points and 1 point for playing the Gabilan champion). Right now I have the at-large pool of 10 teams with a cut off at 20 points so Alvarez with two wins still would not be considered for an at-large. Even if they make the top 10 for consideration they might struggle to make the top seven required to make the play-offs.

Right now counting all CCS teams - Carmel is ranked 22nd and Alvarez is ranked 44th. If Alverez upsets Carmel Carmel's ranking would go down and Alvarez would go up but I doubt Alvarez rnakeing would overtake Carmel (Carmel is still ranked below San Benito this eek despite the result of the 41-14 Carmel win over San Benito).

I think Carmel that almost no matter what happens the last two weeks and Alvarez is out. There are a few far fetched fringe scenarios that would have to happen for this not to be true.

Pal - great work!!! You are definitely the live Wiki-CCSFB for 2019 CCS PowerPoints. And incredible patience too with all the questions slinging you way.

 

[PALbooster]

CCS play-off field with two weeks to go

The CCS play-offs consists of 40 teams. 33 are automatic qualifiers based on league standings and 7 are selected from an at-large pool. All A leagues get four automatic berths. B leagues get two automatic spots with the exception being the Mission League gets 3 and the Cypress League gets 1. The three C leagues get 1 spot.

A Leagues

Deanza - Wilcox and Los Gatos have clinched spots. The last two spots are between Mountain View 3-1 (Palo Alto, Los Gatos), Palo Alto 2-2 (Mt. View, Milpitas) and Milpitas 1-3 (Fremont, Palo Alto) with the likely nod to Mountain View and Palo Alto. All three teams will make the play-offs if they fall into the 5th spot with an at-large bid. Santa Clara will finish the season with 20-20.5 points pending the final outcome of the Soquel Santa Cruz game and the Cypress team league title. Santa Clara will be one of the 10 teams considered for an at-large bid but will likely not make the top 7 for the field due to their low calpreps rating. Wilcox should cruise to an undisputed title.

Gabilan – Salinas and Palma have clinched paly-off spots. The final two automatic qualifiers will come between San Benito 4-1 (Salinas and Palma), Aptos 4-1 (Palma and Salinas) and Carmel 3-3 (Alvarez). In a 3 way tie for third among Carmel, San Benito and Aptos, Aptos would be the 5th place team. Whichever team comes in 5th place will make the play-offs as an at-large team. Even with an upset, Alvarez is unlikely to get an at-large bid. Salinas is favored to be the league champion but faces challenges in San Benito and Aptos in the last two weeks.

Mt. Hamilton – Three teams have clinched automatic berths (Oak Grove, Leland and Live Oak). Santa Teresa will get the last spot with a win over winless Independence this week. The race for the league championship is wide open. Oak Grove is 4-0 (Leland, Lincoln) but plays two teams in the last two weeks with just one loss. Live Oak (Lincoln, Santa Teresa), Lincoln (Live Oak, Oak Grove) and Leland (Oak Grove, Piedmont Hills) each have one loss. Lincoln does not participate in the CCS Play-offs. There will be no at-large teams from this league.

PAL Bay – The four play-off spots are set gong to Menlo-Atherton, Sacred Heart Prep, Kings Academy and Terra Nova. Menlo-Atherton is the sole league champion if it wins out over Aragon and Kings Academy. Burlingame is on the bubble for an at-large berth. They must win on of their last two games (SHP and San Mateo) to have a chance. Two losses and they are out.

WCAL – Top four spots here are set as well with Serra, Valley Christian, Saint Ignatius, and Mitty getting the four automatic spots. The 5th and 6th place teams from this league will get the top two wild card slots. Both St. Francis (vs Riordan) and Bellarmine (vs Sacred Heart Cathedral) – clinch wild card spots with a win this week. The league championship will likely be determined this week between VC (Serra, Mitty) and Serra (VC, SI) although there is an outside chance that the winner of SI and Mitty could also gain a share of the title by winning out.

B Leagues

Mission – Monte Vista Christian is the only team that has clinched a play-off spot. They also secure no worse than a share of the league title if they beat winless North Salinas this week. The last two spots are a race between Seaside (Soledad, MVC), Alisal (Monterey and Soledad) and Soledad (Seaside, Alisal) which are all 3-1 in league. These teams are tightly bunched with regard to their season long calpreps rating so there is a slight nod to Seaside (which has lost a number of key players for the year to injury) and Soledad but it will not be much of s surprise is Alisal gets one of these spots. In terms of an-at large berth Monterey would end up at 20 points with a win over Alisal and be one of the 10 teams considered for an at-large bid although they would be unlikely to be among the top 7. Seaside, if they lose their last two games would also end up at 20 points and would be a bubble team to get an at-large berth.

El Camino – Three teams enter the last two weeks of the season with one league loss. Saratoga (Lynbrook and Cupertino) figures to win out and gain one of the two automatic spots. Homestead (Monta Vista, Gunn) is a one point favorite this week and will be an underdog to Gunn in the final week but must win out to make the play-offs. Gunn (Cupertino, Homestead) is favored to win out and share the league title with Saratoga. The final week game between Homestead and Gunn is likely a play-in game. Cupertino is the only league team with two losses and must pull of an upset of Saratoga to have a chance at a play-off spot. Saratoga (21.5 with one more loss) and Gunn (20 points with another loss) have chances at an at-large spot if they don’t take the automatic bids.

PAL Ocean – Half Moon Bay has clinched a play-off spot. The other berth will go to the winner of this week’s San Mateo vs Hillsdale game. The loser will make the field if they win their final week rivalry game (Hillsdale faces Aragon and San Mateo plays Burlingame). Either team will end up on the at-large bubble if they loss both games.

Santa Teresa – This is a tight race with Branham (Leigh, Silver Creek) at 5-0, Overfelt (Willow Glen, Leigh) and Silver Creek (Sobrato, Branham) at 4-1 and Willow Glen (Overfelt, Del Mar) and Leigh (Branham, Overfelt) at 3-2. Branham is a heavy favorite to win out and take the league title. This week Overfelt is projected as a one point favorite over Willow Glen and they would take the second spot if they win out as they own a head to head tiebreaker over Silver Creek. However in a three way tie between Willow Glen, Silver Creek and Overfelt the nod would go to Willow Glen. Silver Creek needs to win out and have Overfelt loss to gain an automatic spot. If Overfelt or Willow Glen fall to third they will have a decent chance as an at-large team to make the field.



Cyprus – This week’s Santa Cruz at Soquel game will determine the league champion. If Santa Cruz wins they win the title regardless of what happens in their last game against last place Watsonville. If Soquel wins they get the title in either a two way share with Santa Cruz or a three way share with North Monterey Cunty as they would win a head to head tiebreaker or a three way tiebreaker. North Monterey Count will be in a very good position for an at-large spot if they win out and finish 8-2. Soquel will also have a chance for an at-large if they stumble against Santa Cruz.

PAL- Lake – Mills is the heavy favorite here to win the league. They can clinch this week with a win over El Camino and a Capuchino loss to Jefferson. If Capuchino wins this week it sets up a league championship game in the last week of the year against Mills.

Santa Lucia – Pacific Grove clinches the title with a win over either Greenfield and Marina in the last two weeks.

West Valley – Mount Pleasant only needs one win against Prospect or Lick to clinch the play-off spot.

Project Automatic Qualifiers – Wilcox, Los Gatos, Palo Alto, Mountain View, Salinas, Palma, San Benito, Carmel, Oak Grove, Live Oak, Leland, Santa Teresa, Menlo-Atherton, Sacred Heart Prep, Kings Academy, Terra Nova, Serra, Valley Christian, Saint Ignatius, Mitty, Monte Vista Christian, Seaside, Soledad, Half Moon Bay, Hillsdale, Saratoga, Gunn, Branham, Overfelt, Soquel, Pacific Grove, Mills and Mount Pleasant.

The way at-large works is that you take the top 10 teams by CCS points for at-large consideration. Based on current projections it would look like this:

Team CCS pts CP rank Total At Large rank

St. Francis 34 10 44 1
Bellarmine 30 9 39 2
North Mty County 22.8 3 25.8 7
Milpitas 22.3 6 28.3 5
Santa Cruz 21.3 5 26.3 6
Aptos 21 8 29 3
Willow Glen 20.5 4 24.5
San Mateo 21.5 7 28.5 4
Santa Clara 20.3 2 22.3
Monterey 20 1 21


So the 7 at-large teams would be St. Francis, Bellarmine, Aptos, San Mateo, Milpitas, Santa Cruz, and North Monterey County. It is worth noting that this has changed since I did it on Sunday morning as Willow Glen was rated ahead of Santa Cruz. Know Santa Cruz is ranked 37th and Willow Glen 38th, so Santa Cruz gained a point and Willow Glen lost one as the reason for the change.

 

[Cja11211978]

Are you calculating the bout of CCS games, out of CIF games? As well as bonus points for Top 100, Top 150 opponents? League champions played from out of CCS and CIF?

Just curious.

 

[colhenrylives]

Ah, yes, King's Academy vs. a Canadian team.

 

[831ccschamp]

Hypothetically speaking Gonzales beats both Watsonville and North County; wouldn’t that knock Willow Glen out assuming your prediction of them losing to Overfelt?

 

[PALbooster]

Are you calculating the bout of CCS games, out of CIF games? As well as bonus points for Top 100, Top 150 opponents? League champions played from out of CCS and CIF?

Just curious.

Yes I am counting Non-CCS and out of state games and conference champions as well as top 100 and top 150. As of know I have the following Non-ccs and non CIF teams in the top 100:

De La Salle
Corona Del Mar
Folsom
Marin Catholic
Pittsburg
Clovis
St. Mary's
Gonzaga Prep (WA)
East (UT)

The Top 101-150 are:

Clovis North
Clovis West
Las Lomas
Clayton Valley Charter

Per Col. Henry - I have nothing on Canada and counted them as a C team for Kings Academy - waiting for Calpreps to go global in their ratings.

 

[PALbooster]

Hypothetically speaking Gonzales beats both Watsonville and North County; wouldn’t that knock Willow Glen out assuming your prediction of them losing to Overfelt?

IF that scenario occurs I have Willow Glen, NMC and Gonzales all at 20.5 points and they would all be part of the At-large pool. As of today Willow Glen is ranked 38th, NMC 40th, and Gonzales 49th in CCS . Gonazales would bump Monterey from At-Large consideration in my current projections and move the line for At-Large consideration to 20.5

 

[Cja11211978]

Great Job Man. Appreciate you.

I do think week 10 in the Cypress is still huge.
If Soquel beats SC.
And NMC wins out.

Three way tie for PCAL Cypress, which would split the 2 Championship points 3 ways, right? Since they all beat each other?

Or does CalPrep ranking create a winner take all scenario?

 

[831ccschamp]

IF that scenario occurs I have Willow Glen, NMC and Gonzales all at 20.5 points and they would all be part of the At-large pool. As of today Willow Glen is ranked 38th, NMC 40th, and Gonzales 49th in CCS . Gonazales would bump Monterey from At-Large consideration in my current projections and move the line for At-Large consideration to 20.5

Santa Cruz beating or losing to Soquel effect this at all?

 

[PALbooster]

Great Job Man. Appreciate you.

I do think week 10 in the Cypress is still huge.
If Soquel beats SC.
And NMC wins out.

Three way tie for PCAL Cypress, which would split the 2 Championship points 3 ways, right? Since they all beat each other?

Or does CalPrep ranking create a winner take all scenario?

In a three way tie they split the championship points as well as receive 0.667 points for playing two tri=league champions. So in a B league each of the three teams gets 1.33 bonus points for being a tri champion and playing two trichampions. that is currently how this league is projected.

 

[PALbooster]

Santa Cruz beating or losing to Soquel effect this at all?

Not directly. If Santa Cruz wins it will put Soquel in the pool at 8-2 with 22 points. If Soquel wins Santa Cruz goes into the at-large pool with 21 points. The other teams mentioned would all still be at 20.5 and would need to be ranked one level higher than Santa Cruz to beat them out and two places higher than Soquel to be ranked higher than them

 

[PALbooster]

With just a few results left for the weekend, 31 CCS teams have clinched play-off berths and if Santa Teresa beats winless Independence tonight they will become the 32rd team in.

31 teams in - Wilcox, Los Gatos, Mountain View, Palo Alto, Oak Grove, Live Oak, Leland, Menlo-Atherton, Sacred Heart Prep, Kings Academy, Terra Nova, Salinas, Palma, San Benito, Aptos, Carmel, Serra, Valley Christian, Saint Ignatius, Mitty, St. Francis, Bellarmine, Half Moon Bay, San Mateo, Branham, Santa Cruz, Monte Vista Christian, Seaside, Mills, Pacific Grove and Mt. Pleasant.

4 teams in unless there is a huge/unlikely upset by a 20 point plus underdog in the final game: Saratoga, Overfelt, Santa Teresa, Hillsdale.

2 play in games - winner is in and loser almost definitely out of the play-offs: Soledad vs Alisal and Homestead vs Gunn.

3 at-large spots in play - Milpitas, Burlingame, Soquel and Willow Glen.

Deanza - Wilcox, Los Gatos and Mountain View have clinched automatic berths regardless of final week results and Palo Alto has clinched a play-off spot. Milpitas is likely to get an at-large spot. The fourth automatic spot will go to Palo Alto with either a win over Milpitas or a Mountain View loss to Los Gatos. The only way this spot goes to Milpitas is if they upset Palo Alto and Mountain View upsets Los Gatos. In this case Palo Alto will make the play-offs as an at-large team. Milpitas is projected to be the final at-large team to make the field. They could improve their situation greatly with an upset win over Palo Alto. Santa Clara has finished their season and likely have 20 points. Wilcox is currently ranked 93rd in the state and Los Gatos is ranked 137th. If Wilcox or Los Gatos were to sli out of the top 100 or 150 respectively it would effect point totals for all other league members. Wilcox will be a 50 point plus favorite over Fremont and a win will give them the league championship outright.

Gabilan - Only Salinas and Palma have clinched automatic berths. The last two berths will be settled between Carmel, San Benito and Aptos but all three teams have enough points and have a high enough CalPreps ranking that they are guaranteed to make the play-offs. Alvarez needs a large number of unlikely events to happen to get in the top being considered for an at-large berth and even then are unlikely to have a high enough CalPreps rating to get an at-large berth. Salinas is the sole league champion with either a win over Aptos or a Palma Loss to San Benito. A Slainas loss and Palma win will make them co-champions.

Mount Hamilton - Oak Grove, Live Oak and Leland have clinched automatic berths. Since Lincoln will give up the fourth spot, Santa Teresa will get the last spot with either a win over Independence tonight or either a win in their final game against Live Oak or if Piedmont Hills losses to Leland. There will be no at-large team from this league. Oak Grove is the sole league champion if they beat Lincoln in the final game or if Live Oak losses to Santa Teresa. A Live Oak win and OAk Grove loss will make them co-champions.

PAL-Bay - The four automatic spots go to Menlo-Atherton, Sacred Heart Prep, Terra Nova, and Kings Academy. Burlingame will secure an at-large berth with a win in their last game against San Mateo or will be on the bubble for one of the final at-large spots with a loss. MA has clinched the league crown regardless of next week's outcome with Kings Academy.

WCAL - Six teams from the WCAL have clinched play-off spots. Serra, Valley Christian, Saint Ignatius and Mitty have the four automatic spots and St. Francis and Bellarmine will get the sections first two at-large berths. Serra wins an outright league championship with a win over SI. A SI win will make them either Co-champs with Serra or Tri-champs with VC and Serra.

PAL-Ocean - Half Moon Bay is the league champion and San Mateo earned the other automatic berth. Hillsdale will get an at-large berth with a final week win over Aragon and be on the bubble with a loss.

Mission - Monte Vista Christian and Seaside have clinched automatic berths. The final spot will go to the winner of the Alisal-Soledad game this week. If Alsial wins they will either be tri-champs with MVC and Seaside or be alone in second place behind MVC. If Soledad wins they will either be in a three way tie for second place and edge out Alisal in the tiebreaker or they will finish tied for 3rd with Alisal and in the head to head tiebreaker.

Cyprus - Santa Cruz has clinched the league's automatic berth regardless of their final week result against last place Watsonville. Soquel finished their season 8-2 and are likely to get an at-large berth. The winner of this weeks North Monterey County vs Gozales game will finish with 20.5 points and make the top ten teams considered for the final 7 at-large berths but will almost certainly be ranked too low to get on of the seven final spots.

El Camino - Saratoga, Gunn and Homestead enter the final week all with 4-1 league records. Gunn plays Homestead and the winner will get an automatic berth. Saratoga will be a 30 point plus favorite over Cupertino and will get the other spot with a win. If Saratoga losses they still get the second spot if Gunn beats Homestead, but would lose the tiebreaker if Homestead beats Gunn. If either Sratoga or Gunn don't get an automatic spot they will be one of the top 10 teams for an at-large berth but will be ranked too low to get one of the top 7 spots.

Santa Teresa - Branham has clinched a spot regardless of final week results. Overfelt gets the second spot if they beat Leigh in their final game or if Silver Creek loses tonight against Sobrato or in their final game against Branham. The only way Overfelt is out is if they lose their final game and Silver Creek wins out. If Willow Glen beats last place Del Mar they will be on the bubble for being an at-large team.

All three C leagues are settled going into the last week with Mills (PAL-Lake), PAcific Grove (Santa Lucia) and Mt. Pleasant (West Valley) getting the automatic berths regardless of final week results.

 

[831ccschamp]

It’s kinda disappointing that an A league team with a losing record is going to get to beat up on a whole bunch of C league teams.

 

[PALbooster]

It’s kinda disappointing that an A league team with a losing record is going to get to beat up on a whole bunch of C league teams.

All the C league teams will be in DV. The only A league team in DV will be Santa Teresa and nothing indicates that they will roll through that group. Santa Teresa is ranked #55 in CCS while C teams Mills is ranked #40, Pacific Grove is ranked #57 and Mt. Pleasant is ranked #66. the other 4 teams will be B teams (currently projected to be Saratoga #35, Gunn #46, Overfelt #34 and Alisal # 39 or Soledad #43)

 

[carmelkyd]

But doesn't this show a major weakness of CCS's play-off format? The winner of DV will go to a NorCal play-in game. Should Overfelt win, the 34th best team in CCS will be moving on.

 

[PALbooster]

Top 10 after week 10(based on Calprep data at 8 AM Sunday)

Interesting to note that CCS By-Laws call on calculations based on Nor-Cal Preps to be made as of an hour before the seeding meeting which is at 9 AM Sunday next week. It is clear that not all the Saturday scores have been processed and the CalPreps rating will shift either during or after the seeding meeting. There are a couple of Saturday night games scheduled for next week including Seaside VS MVC which will decide the Mission League championship.

School CCS Rank (last week rank) Norcal Rank State Rank

Serra 1 (1) 3 14
Valley Christian 2 (2) 4 28
Saint Ignatius 3 (4) 15 79
Menlo-Atherton 4 (3) 18 85
Wilcox 5 (5) 24 97
Mitty 6 (6) 26 103
Half Moon Bay 7 (9) 36 122
St. Francis 8 (7) 38 128
Los Gatos 9 (8) 47 141
Salinas 10 (10) 55 172

Dropped out: None

The only changes were SI and MA switching places at 3 and 4 after MA got a forfeit win over Aragon and SI beat Mitty. The other change was that HMB jumped from 9 to 7 after beating Carlmont 56-7. Last week HMB dropped from 130 to 160 in state ranking after beating Sequoia 42-13 and this week they jumped from 160 to 122 from their win. This dropped St. Francis and Los Gatos one spot.

DI
8. Los Gatos 9-1 64 at 1. Serra 10-0 87.5
5. Saint Ignatius 7-3 70 at 4. Wilcox 8-2 70.5
6. Mitty 6-4 67.5 at 3. Menlo-Atherton 7-3 71.5
7. St. Francis 4-6 66 at 2. Valley Christian 9-1 78

The only change here was Mitty and St. Francis changed between the 6 and 7 seeds. There is only a 1 point difference between Los Gatos and Salinas. It looks like there is a big gap between the teams that will be hard to make up in week 11. Los Gatos is #9 with a rating of 29.5 and plays #25 Mountain View with a rating of 8.8. Salinas is #10 with a rating of 26.1 and plays #17 Aptos with a rating of 14.4. If both win as expected it will be hard for Salinas to overtake Los Gatos.

DII
8. Kings Academy 7-3 53 at 1. Salinas 9-1 63
5. Palo Alto 7-3 57 at 4. Palma 8-2 58.3
6. Bellarmine 3-7 57 at 3. Sacred Heart Prep 7-3 59
7. Live Oak 9-1 54 at 2. Half Moon Bay 10-0 61.5

This field stayed the same. SHP and Palma switched seeds between 3&4, Palo Alto and Bellarmine switched between #5 and #6,and Kings Academy and Live Oak switched between #7 and #8. Calpreps has been flakey with SHP. Who two weeks ago after beating Kings Academy dropped from #10 to #13 in the section and this week was upset by Burlingame and then went from #13 to #11.

DIII
8. San Mateo 9-1 42.5 at 1. Oak Grove 8-2 52
5. San Benito 5-5 46 at 4. Terra Nova 6-4 47
6. Carmel 6-4 42.5 at 3. Aptos 5-5 46.33
7. Mountain View 7-3 42.5 at 2. Branham 10-0 48.5

San Mateo and Terra Nova moved up from DIV to DIII and replaced Hillsdale and Monte Vista Christian. Terra Nova upset Kings Academy last week and San Mateo beat Hillsdale head to head.


DIV
8. Milpitas 3-7 33.3 at 1. Monte Vista Christian 8-1 0.8
5. Santa Cruz 8-2 34 at 4. Seaside 8-2 35
6. Soquel 8-2 34 at 3. Burlingame 4-6 35.5 Leland 6-4 39
7. Leland 6-4 34 at 2. Hillsdale 7-3 36.5

Santa Cruz entered the field by clinching the Cypress League with a win over Soquel. Burlingame upset SHP and moved back into the field as an at-large team. Overfelt and Saratoga moved to DV.

Division V
8, Mount Pleasant 7-3 18 at 1. Saratoga 8-2 32
5. Mills 9-1 26 at 4. Alisal 6-4 26
6. Santa Teresa 4-6 22 at 3. Gunn 9-1 26.5
7. Pacific Grove 7-3 21 at 2. Overfelt 7-3 31.5
Saratoga and Overfelt dropped form DV to DIV. Alisal entered the field. Teams that dropped out are listed below.

Dropped Out
Willow Glen 7-3 - Lost ot Overfelt in OT
North Monterey County 7-3 was upset by King City
Soledad 5-5 now projected below Alisal - will replace Alisal with a head to head win this week.

 

[PALbooster]

But doesn't this show a major weakness of CCS's play-off format? The winner of DV will go to a NorCal play-in game. Should Overfelt win, the 34th best team in CCS will be moving on.

I think this is a philosophical debate with no right answer - just a set of different values and opinions.

Way back in the day (or at least as far back as I go) when divisions were first established the concept was to have schools compete against other like schools for championships. The fairest basis to group schools was based on school enrollment. There was not such an out-sized emphasis on sports those days and most kids went to their neighborhood schools with a some families seeking a religious or private school education, but rarely making selections based on sports. With a few exceptions schools of equal size allocated similar resources to athletics and facilities.

The idea was that the best teams were in the largest schools in DI and it was rare that a top ranked smaller school was good enough to beat a highly ranked larger school. So the original idea was that DV school was likely to be the 35th best team in the section.

Fast forward to today where many private schools are selected for sports, public schools have more open enrollment and families self select to go to the school with a stronger team or program within their district. Schools vary greatly in terms of what resources they attach to sports, especially football. I don't attach much value judgement to this, as they say today "it is what it is". But to think that you create a level playing field by simply dividing schools by population is not accurate. Here are the top 15 CBED Schools in the CCS (from 2018-19) out of 95 schools and their current CCS football rankings. There is not much correlation between school size and football.

1. 3284 Bellarmine 14
2. 3170 Milpitas 32
3. 3009 San Benito (Hollister) 22
4. 2989 Independence 85
5. 2923 Alisal 39
6. 2900 Evergreen Valley 88
7. 2707 Salinas 10
8. 2670 Everett Alvarez 37
9. 2486 Menlo-Atherton 4
10. 2444 Silver Creek 51
11. 2427 Homestead 59
12. 2353 North Salinas 68
13. 2300 Monta Vista 72
14. 2270 Cupertino 81
15. 2229 Los Altos 69

For years the CCS has chased this issue and tried to remedy it through various schemes and point systems and was always behind. I think where we are today if fundamentally fair with teams of roughly equal rank and abilities competing in post season for a championship. The divisions are dynamic and change based on strengths of teams each year. I don't think the intention of divisions was ever to send the sections five best teams forward to regional or state competitions. In other sports we are doing this through open divisions.

I acknowledge that there are some losses with this type of system. You lose continuity and history as teams are in different divisions in different years. Some smaller schools that have historical years will end up in higher division play-offs, but on occassion we have seen these teams advance like when SHP won the open division over Bellarmine.

I think a positive of this set-up is that it will create excitement and energy around football that has been missing outside of the top 10-15 schools. Just imagine how a school like Overfelt can galvanize their community and their program by going to a regional or state game.

 

[FBAddict]

I think this is a philosophical debate with no right answer - just a set of different values and opinions.

Way back in the day (or at least as far back as I go) when divisions were first established the concept was to have schools compete against other like schools for championships. The fairest basis to group schools was based on school enrollment. There was not such an out-sized emphasis on sports those days and most kids went to their neighborhood schools with a some families seeking a religious or private school education, but rarely making selections based on sports. With a few exceptions schools of equal size allocated similar resources to athletics and facilities.

The idea was that the best teams were in the largest schools in DI and it was rare that a top ranked smaller school was good enough to beat a highly ranked larger school. So the original idea was that DV school was likely to be the 35th best team in the section.

Fast forward to today where many private schools are selected for sports, public schools have more open enrollment and families self select to go to the school with a stronger team or program within their district. Schools vary greatly in terms of what resources they attach to sports, especially football. I don't attach much value judgement to this, as they say today "it is what it is". But to think that you create a level playing field by simply dividing schools by population is not accurate. Here are the top 15 CBED Schools in the CCS (from 2018-19) out of 95 schools and their current CCS football rankings. There is not much correlation between school size and football.

1. 3284 Bellarmine 14
2. 3170 Milpitas 32
3. 3009 San Benito (Hollister) 22
4. 2989 Independence 85
5. 2923 Alisal 39
6. 2900 Evergreen Valley 88
7. 2707 Salinas 10
8. 2670 Everett Alvarez 37
9. 2486 Menlo-Atherton 4
10. 2444 Silver Creek 51
11. 2427 Homestead 59
12. 2353 North Salinas 68
13. 2300 Monta Vista 72
14. 2270 Cupertino 81
15. 2229 Los Altos 69

For years the CCS has chased this issue and tried to remedy it through various schemes and point systems and was always behind. I think where we are today if fundamentally fair with teams of roughly equal rank and abilities competing in post season for a championship. The divisions are dynamic and change based on strengths of teams each year. I don't think the intention of divisions was ever to send the sections five best teams forward to regional or state competitions. In other sports we are doing this through open divisions.

I acknowledge that there are some losses with this type of system. You lose continuity and history as teams are in different divisions in different years. Some smaller schools that have historical years will end up in higher division play-offs, but on occassion we have seen these teams advance like when SHP won the open division over Bellarmine.

I think a positive of this set-up is that it will create excitement and energy around football that has been missing outside of the top 10-15 schools. Just imagine how a school like Overfelt can galvanize their community and their program by going to a regional or state game.

Very good description of our current state of affairs to pursue equity-matched divisions.

 

[Cal 14]

But doesn't this show a major weakness of CCS's play-off format? The winner of DV will go to a NorCal play-in game. Should Overfelt win, the 34th best team in CCS will be moving on.

I don't understand why this is so difficult for so many people.

It was never the intent to send the top teams to the NorCal regional/state games. It was the top teams from each division. Most teams from lower divisions statewide can't compete against the good D-I programs, yet they've been advancing for years. Why is there such a panic about this?

For years, people have been complaining about having the play the strong WCAL teams in the playoffs. Now, the CCS finally comes up with something that appears to be remarkably fair and people are still complaining. You can't have it both ways.

 

[Coach237]

in your last projections you had Branham with 50.5 points and oak grove with 50 there were no upsets. So why is it different? Oak grove got 1.5 more points. Just wondering

 

[carmelkyd]

Calpreps has dropped Gilroy. Alvarez (who beat Gilory before Gilroy ended their season early) gets credit for their win over Gilroy. However all other Gabilan teams (Palma, Salinas, Carmel, etc.) who did not get a chance to play Gilroy have no "win" for their forfeit victories. How does that affect Palma's. Salinas', Carmel's etc calpreps rankings?

 

[Prepwisdom]

PAL- Don't know if it will change anything in D5- But you have P.G. projected at 6-4. and they will most likely finish at 7-3 with their last game against Marina- a team that they will be a prohibitive favorite.

 

[PALbooster]

in your last projections you had Branham with 50.5 points and oak grove with 50 there were no upsets. So why is it different? Oak grove got 1.5 more points. Just wondering

Coach,

Oak Grove has a few moving pieces. For Schedule their out f section game against Oakland Tech has moved back and forth between being a C game and a B game which has 0.5 points difference based on Oakland Tech's rating (now a B Game). Oak Grove also was getting 2 bonus points when St. Francis was ranked in the top 100 - now they are between 101-150 so Oak Grove is getting 1 bonus point. Finally their Calpreps CCS ranking has shifted week to week. Changes in Branham have been based solely on their Calpreps CCS ranking shifts.

 

[PALbooster]

Calpreps has dropped Gilroy. Alvarez (who beat Gilory before Gilroy ended their season early) gets credit for their win over Gilroy. However all other Gabilan teams (Palma, Salinas, Carmel, etc.) who did not get a chance to play Gilroy have no "win" for their forfeit victories. How does that affect Palma's. Salinas', Carmel's etc calpreps rankings?

I have not seen the CCS make a definitive statement on this. I know that Calpreps does not always capture forfeits correctly (it has Aragon's forfeit against MA, but not Woodside's earlier season forfeit to Burlingame).

Historically, the CCS has differentiated between a forfeit- where a team has decided not to play a game (or games) due to internal reasons (which is how I would classify Gilory's decision) and their scheduled opponents get credit for a victory vs games that were not played due to extenuating circumstances (air quality, lights go out, refs don't show, etc.) and one team refused to reschedule. In the latter case it is just viewed as a non-played game and both teams have a 9 game schedule.

I know there have been a couple of cases where a team cancelled their season prior to it starting (Harker, St. Francis Watsonville) and in those cases it was not treated as a forfeit. I think the Gilroy case will be treated as a forfeit and each of the Gabilan teams will be credited for 2 points for a forfeit win over Gilroy. That is how I have proejcted it. If this is not the case Gabilan teams (except Alvarez) should see their point totals drop by about 0.5 - 1.0 points.

 

[PALbooster]

PAL- Don't know if it will change anything in D5- But you have P.G. projected at 6-4. and they will most likely finish at 7-3 with their last game against Marina- a team that they will be a prohibitive favorite.

Thanks - transcription error - my data base and point calculation is based on PG being 7-3.

 

[carmelkyd]

I think the Gilroy case will be treated as a forfeit and each of the Gabilan teams will be credited for 2 points for a forfeit win over Gilroy. That is how I have proejcted it. If this is not the case Gabilan teams (except Alvarez) should see their point totals drop by about 0.5 - 1.0 points.

I too expect (hope) that CCS will qualify these games as a win. My question had to do more with calpreps. Alvarez gets a win and the calpreps model uses that win in their calculations for ranking, etc. However the other Gabilan teams get nothing for "playing" Gilroy. If the other Gabilan teams get a win for "beating" Gilroy, wouldn't that possibly increase their calpreps ranking?

Commissioner McCarthy made it clear in his letter that "They (Gilroy) will forfeit all remaining Varsity football games, leaving their opponents with a forfeit win".

As you might recall from my earlier question about Carmel vs Alvarez, if Carmel loses will Alvarez have a calpreps advantage over Carmel because they got credit for the Gilroy win while Carmel had a "no game" with Gilroy?

 

[PALbooster]

I too expect (hope) that CCS will qualify these games as a win. My question had to do more with calpreps. Alvarez gets a win and the calpreps model uses that win in their calculations for ranking, etc. However the other Gabilan teams get nothing for "playing" Gilroy. If the other Gabilan teams get a win for "beating" Gilroy, wouldn't that possibly increase their calpreps ranking?

Commissioner McCarthy made it clear in his letter that "They (Gilroy) will forfeit all remaining Varsity football games, leaving their opponents with a forfeit win".

As you might recall from my earlier question about Carmel vs Alvarez, if Carmel loses will Alvarez have a calpreps advantage over Carmel because they got credit for the Gilroy win while Carmel had a "no game" with Gilroy?

If you click on trend for each team you can see what impact this had on both teams which is negligible.

Alvarez get 0.6 performance points for beating Gilroy. Their Norcalprep rating is -0.2. If you take that game out of the equation Alisal's rating would go down by -0.06 - so instead of being -0.2 they might be -0.3 depending on rounding.

On the flip side for Carmel (who has a rating of 10.2) - if you assume Gilroy had a rating of -14.3 when they played Carmel, A Carmel victory by 24 or points or less would have actually reduced Carmel's rating. The most Carmel could have gained from the game by winning by 30 points or more - Carmel would have gotten a game performance rating of 15.7 which at most would have increased Carmel's season ranking by 0.55 to 10.8 which would still leave them ranked #22 in the section. But you can't assume that outcome. On the plus side by not playing a game a thin Carmel roster did not have any injuries or the wear and tear of another game.

If you look at Menlo-Atherton - they just didn't count the Aragon game and are basing their rating on the games they played.

 

[Cja11211978]

The irony. Gilroy moved up in the CalPreps rankings this week.

I'm pretty sure that there is no legitimate way for anyone to explain that flaw in the system. You can literally forfeit your season, and be ranked higher than competing teams.

And that system HEAVILY determines our playoff qualifiers.

 

[FBAddict]

The irony. Gilroy moved up in the CalPreps rankings this week.

I'm pretty sure that there is no legitimate way for anyone to explain that flaw in the system. You can literally forfeit your season, and be ranked higher than competing teams.

And that system HEAVILY determines our playoff qualifiers.

What numbers are you looking at to make your conclusion?
Although Gilroy moved up in rankings (and may go down next week), it is only because of the teams it played moving up or down in rank. Here's the important part - this movement has NO effect on 2019 CCS PowerPoints. Gilroy is ranked #733 in state right now. It would need to be ranking #150 or better to affect anyone's powerpoints. Also, Gilroy is currently ranked #60 in CCS, which again has NO effect on any CCS points. It would need to be ranked #40 or higher to have any possible effect; And even if Gilroy was that high, I believe the CCS system is meant to jump right over any team not included in the playoffs to rank order participating teams 40 down to 1

 

[Cja11211978]

There is a real chance that Gilroy will finish above a C League Champion(Pacific Grove) in the CalPrep rankings. Which should raise an eyebrow on the way the rankings are composed. The fact that it doesn't appear to directly affect any playoff seedings isnt the point.

A forfeited season, holds more value than a Championshion season.

A WCAL team that is 0-9(SHP) is ahead of a B League Champion.

The system has minimized the benefit of winning games, and maximized strength of schedule, to an unbalanced degree.

The system is not a total throw away. Just has some current significant flaws. 0-10 should never trump 9-1, 8-2, 7-3. Regardless of league classification. It shouldn't be possible.

 

[FBAddict]

There is a real chance that Gilroy will finish above a C League Champion(Pacific Grove) in the CalPrep rankings. Which should raise an eyebrow on the way the rankings are composed. The fact that it doesn't appear to directly affect any playoff seedings isnt the point.

A forfeited season, holds more value than a Championshion season.

A WCAL team that is 0-9(SHP) is ahead of a B League Champion.

The system has minimized the benefit of winning games, and maximized strength of schedule, to an unbalanced degree.

The system is not a total throw away. Just has some current significant flaws. 0-10 should never trump 9-1, 8-2, 7-3. Regardless of league classification. It shouldn't be possible.

OK - understood. I was thinking you meant Gilroy ranking would interfere with the playoff qualifiers. It seems forfeits in CalPreps is a tricky thing. As it seems the algorithms in CalPreps are set up, to dump Gilroy to the bottom of the rankings would mean every team that played Gilroy would also take a dive. Gilroy is not a very good example. Nabonne is a better example. Nabonne was forced to forfeit its entire season. Yet they are still ranked #1 in the LAS section and #3 in the state. If Nabonne is dropped to the bottom of the heap, every school that played them (and there are some very good teams to have lost to Nabonne), they would be negatively affected too. So I think CalPreps maintains the performance score intact for the sake of the entire system, but now all games listed as a loss. Their record went from 8-1 to 0-9 but to maintain the integrity of the system, they are still ranked #3 in the state. If something like that happened in CCS, the CCS BOC would have to make a ruling on how to handle the numbers.

 

[Cal 14]

There is a real chance that Gilroy will finish above a C League Champion(Pacific Grove) in the CalPrep rankings. Which should raise an eyebrow on the way the rankings are composed. The fact that it doesn't appear to directly affect any playoff seedings isnt the point.

A forfeited season, holds more value than a Championshion season.

You're looking at that entirely wrong. The rating is not the "value" attributed to the season, but the projected ability of the team. For all their problems, Gilroy probably could have beaten Pacific Grove.

A WCAL team that is 0-9(SHP) is ahead of a B League Champion.

The system has minimized the benefit of winning games, and maximized strength of schedule, to an unbalanced degree.

The system is not a total throw away. Just has some current significant flaws. 0-10 should never trump 9-1, 8-2, 7-3. Regardless of league classification. It shouldn't be possible.

Again, it appears that you're looking at the ratings in an unintended way. Seriously take a look at Sacred Heart Cathedral's schedule and tell me what B or C league champion would have won a single game against any of those teams. At best, Half Moon Bay may have won a couple of games, but that's about it. Any other claim challenges credibility.

 

[SpeedCity51]

There is a real chance that Gilroy will finish above a C League Champion(Pacific Grove) in the CalPrep rankings. Which should raise an eyebrow on the way the rankings are composed. The fact that it doesn't appear to directly affect any playoff seedings isnt the point.

A forfeited season, holds more value than a Championshion season.

A WCAL team that is 0-9(SHP) is ahead of a B League Champion.

The system has minimized the benefit of winning games, and maximized strength of schedule, to an unbalanced degree.

The system is not a total throw away. Just has some current significant flaws. 0-10 should never trump 9-1, 8-2, 7-3. Regardless of league classification. It shouldn't be possible.

What difference does Gilroy forfeiting their season have to do with the quality of the team they had when they were playing? I mean they were not good, but they most definitely were not the worst team in the section. Them ending their season early doesn’t change that.

 

[Rmbr26]

"Cal 14[/B], post: 246861, member: 16"] Again, it appears that you're looking at the ratings in an unintended way. Seriously take a look at Sacred Heart Cathedral's schedule and tell me what B or C league champion would have won a single game against any of those teams. At best, Half Moon Bay may have won a couple of games, but that's about it. Any other claim challenges credibility.

Cal 14 I agree with you regarding SHC's schedule compared to B or C league champs or contenders, however I think you're selling HMB short. HMB is a bit of an unknown as to how good they are. What we do know is that SHP beat a very good S.I. team early season by 28-21 and several weeks later HMB beat that same SHP by 40-0. SHP also played M-A and lost 26-20 in a close fought game. Apples to Oranges? Maybe or maybe not as we won't know 'til playoffs. I would wager currently that HMB is capable of winning vs SHC, Riordan & Bells minimum.

 

[Cal 14]

Cal 14 I agree with you regarding SHC's schedule compared to B or C league champs or contenders, however I think you're selling HMB short. HMB is a bit of an unknown as to how good they are. What we do know is that SHP beat a very good S.I. team early season by 28-21 and several weeks later HMB beat that same SHP by 40-0. SHP also played M-A and lost 26-20 in a close fought game. Apples to Oranges? Maybe or maybe not as we won't know 'til playoffs. I would wager currently that HMB is capable of winning vs SHC, Riordan & Bells minimum.

My “that’s about it” comment was more directed at the other B and C league champions. Other than HMB, I don’t think any one of them would have won a game with SHC’s schedule.

 

[Coach237]

Pal

I have another question. Does how big or small somebody wins a game does that affect the rankings? Four instance if a team was predicted to win 35-28 by calpreps and they win 40-0 does that affect how much they move up or down in the rankings?